{"id":100831,"date":"2023-03-18T16:26:17","date_gmt":"2023-03-18T20:26:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=100831"},"modified":"2023-03-18T17:30:05","modified_gmt":"2023-03-18T21:30:05","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e5%8f%8d%e5%af%b9%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e6%8f%90%e5%87%ba%e7%9a%84%e4%b9%8c%e5%85%8b%e5%85%b0%e5%81%9c%e7%81%ab%e5%bb%ba%e8%ae%ae","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=100831","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u53cd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u505c\u706b\u5efa\u8bae"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"date-time-area \">\n<div class=\"container\"><span class=\"date-time\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u65f6\u95f4 5:26 2023\u5e743\u670819\u65e5 \u661f\u671f\u65e5<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"content\">\n<div class=\"container\">\n<div class=\"hdr-container\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-category col-xs-12 col-md-2 pull-left\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"col-publishing-details col-xs-12 col-sm-12 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\u201c\u867d\u7136\u505c\u706b\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8ba4\u53ef\u4e86\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5728\u5f53\u5730\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u6210\u679c\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u666e\u4eac\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u987e\u95ee\u5c24\u91cc\u00b7\u4e4c\u6c99\u79d1\u592b\u5468\u4e94\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u7684\u4f1a\u8c08\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u89e3\u51b3\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5c06\u4ea4\u6362\u5bf9\u90a3\u91cc\u5c40\u52bf\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u770b\u770b\u5728\u90a3\u4e4b\u540e\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4ec0\u4e48\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u79d1\u6bd4\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u505c\u706b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u63d0\u4f9b\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u53d1\u52a8\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7684\u8fdb\u653b\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u3002 \u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u7684\u505c\u706b\u201c\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u201d\u5e76\u4e14\u201c\u5c06\u8fdd\u53cd\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5baa\u7ae0\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5c06\u5265\u593a\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u975e\u6cd5\u4fb5\u5165\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6cfd\u8fde\u65af\u57fa\u8c28\u614e\u5730\u6b22\u8fce\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u5c06\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u884c\u52a8\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8a00\u8bed\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u653f\u6cbb\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u768412\u70b9\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u547c\u5401\u201c\u5c3d\u5feb\u76f4\u63a5\u5bf9\u8bdd\u201d \uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u8fbe\u6210\u201c\u5168\u9762\u505c\u706b\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u6587\u4ef6\u6ca1\u6709\u5177\u4f53\u8bf4\u660e\u89e3\u51b3\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u9886\u571f\u7684\u5360\u9886\u6216\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u8981\u6c42\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u64a4\u519b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u7684\u52a8\u673a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7W\u00b7\u5e03\u4ec0\u7814\u7a76\u6240 (George W. Bush Institute) \u6267\u884c\u4e3b\u4efb\u514b\u83b1\u9ed8 (David Kramer) \u8bf4\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u63d0\u8bae\u505c\u706b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u5728\u8bd5\u56fe\u201c\u4e3a\u666e\u4eac\u633d\u6551\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e1c\u897f\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u519b\u961f\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4f73\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u544a\u8bc9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\u3002\u201c\u800c\u4e14\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e72\u9884\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u90fd\u4f1a\u8fc5\u901f\u62d2\u7edd\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u63d0\u8bae\u3002 \u6606\u897f\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e8b\u52a1\u7814\u7a76\u6240(Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft)\u5927\u6218\u7565\u4e3b\u4efb\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u6bd5\u6bd4(George Beebe)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u666e\u4eac\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0e\u897f\u65b9\u65ad\u7edd\u5173\u7cfb\u5e76\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u4fc3\u6210\u548c\u5e73\u3002\u6606\u897f\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e8b\u52a1\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u5f20\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u514b\u5236\u7684\u667a\u5e93\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4ed6\u5728\u5b8c\u5168\u62d2\u7edd\u4e2d\u56fd\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u56de\u65cb\u4f59\u5730\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u201d\u6bd5\u6bd4\u544a\u8bc9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6bd5\u6bd4\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u5317\u4eac\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53ea\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u9632\u6b62\u5317\u4eac\u5728\u519b\u4e8b\u4e0a\u652f\u6301\u666e\u4eac\uff0c\u6cfd\u8fde\u65af\u57fa\u4f1a\u60f3\u4e0e\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u63a5\u89e6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u524d\u666f\u6e3a\u832b<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ea4\u6218\u5404\u65b9\u90fd\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u505c\u706b\u524d\u666f\u6e3a\u832b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u663e\u793a\uff0c85% \u7684\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u4efb\u4f55\u9886\u571f\u8ba9\u6b65\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e00\u573a\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u57fa\u8f85\u8981\u6c42\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u64a4\u51fa\u81ea2022\u5e742\u6708\u5165\u4fb5\u4ee5\u6765\u5360\u9886\u7684\u5730\u533a\u4ee5\u53ca\u666e\u4eac\u4e8e 2014\u5e74\u975e\u6cd5\u541e\u5e76\u7684\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\u534a\u5c9b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u56fd\u9645\u548c\u5e73\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\uff08Carnegie Endowment for International Peace\uff09\u6838\u653f\u7b56\u9879\u76ee\u8054\u5e2d\u4e3b\u4efb\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u963f\u514b\u987f(James Acton)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u5c06\u53cd\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u8981\u6c42\u5b83\u4ece\u65b0\u541e\u5e76\u7684\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u9886\u571f\u64a4\u51fa\u7684\u505c\u706b\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u66f4\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u610f\u4ece\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\u64a4\u519b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4ece2014\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u5360\u9886\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\uff0c\u201d\u963f\u514b\u987f\u544a\u8bc9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u662f\u666e\u4eac\u7edf\u6cbb\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6210\u5c31\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u5177\u4f53\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u4e8b\u6cd5\u9662\u5ba3\u5e03\u5e0c\u671b\u5bf9\u6d89\u5acc\u6218\u4e89\u7f6a\u7684\u8fd9\u4f4d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8fdb\u884c\u5ba1\u5224\u7684\u540c\u4e00\u5929\uff0c\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e0e\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4f1a\u9762\u4e5f\u4e3a\u666e\u4eac\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5916\u4ea4\u52a9\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u4e8b\u6cd5\u9662\u9662\u957f\u76ae\u5965\u7279\u00b7\u970d\u592b\u66fc\u65af\u57fa\uff08Piotr Hofmanski\uff09\u544a\u8bc9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u902e\u6355\u4ee4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u666e\u4eac\u524d\u5f80\u52a0\u5165\u56fd\u9645\u5211\u4e8b\u6cd5\u9662\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u8be5\u56fd\u6709\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e49\u52a1\u902e\u6355\u4ed6\u5e76\u5c06\u4ed6\u79fb\u4ea4\u6cd5\u5ead\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u91ce\u5fc3<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u8bbf\u95ee\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u65e5\u76ca\u51f8\u663e\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u91ce\u5fc3\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u5317\u4eac\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u7531\u5317\u4eac\u65a1\u65cb\u7684\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u4f0a\u6717\u548c\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u5728\u4e03\u5e74\u7684\u654c\u5bf9\u72b6\u6001\u540e\u91cd\u5efa\u5916\u4ea4\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u6cd5\u5b66\u9662\u8521\u5143\u57f9\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Yale Law School\u2019s Paul Tsai China 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