{"id":102916,"date":"2023-07-22T20:06:47","date_gmt":"2023-07-23T00:06:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=102916"},"modified":"2023-07-22T21:11:10","modified_gmt":"2023-07-23T01:11:10","slug":"%e4%b8%8a%e4%b8%8d%e5%b0%81%e9%a1%b6%e3%80%81%e4%b8%8d%e5%8f%af%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b-%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e7%81%ab%e7%ae%ad%e5%86%9b%e5%8d%81%e5%b9%b4%e5%86%85%e6%83%8a%e4%ba%ba%e6%89%a9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=102916","title":{"rendered":"\u201c\u4e0a\u4e0d\u5c01\u9876\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u201d \u4e2d\u56fd\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u60ca\u4eba\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4f1a\u5426\u8003\u8651\u5148\u53d1\u5236\u4eba\u6838\u6253\u51fb?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"date-time-area \">\n<div class=\"container\"><span class=\"date-time\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u65f6\u95f4 9:06 2023\u5e747\u670823\u65e5 \u661f\u671f\u65e5<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"content\" class=\" not-loaded-ymlas\">\n<div 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\/>\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u5370\u592a\u53f8\u4ee4\u90e8\u53f8\u4ee4\u6d77\u519b\u4e0a\u5c06\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u963f\u594e\u5229\u8bfa(John Aquilino) 7\u670818\u65e5\u5728\u963f\u65af\u5f6d\u5b89\u5168\u8bba\u575b(Aspen Security Forum)\u4e0a<a class=\"wsw__a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.defense.gov\/News\/News-Stories\/Article\/Article\/3464477\/pacom-commander-says-us-must-continue-modernization-of-strategic-capabilities\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8868\u793a<\/a>\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u7684\u5efa\u8bbe\u5305\u62ec\u5176\u6838\u80fd\u529b\u611f\u5230\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u8981\u6c42\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u53c2\u52a0\u6838\u9650\u5236\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u65b9\u6ca1\u6709\u63a5\u53d7\u9080\u8bf7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u8fdb\u6218\u7565\u80fd\u529b\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u8fd9\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6218\u7565\u6838\u5a01\u6151\u4fdd\u536b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5e95\u7ebf\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\u975e\u5e38\u5feb\u2026\u2026\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u90e8\u961f\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u5728\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u505a\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e2d\u56fd\u52302035\u5e74\u5c06\u62e5\u6709\u7ea61500\u679a\u6838\u5f39\u5934\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u76f4\u62d2\u7edd\u627f\u8ba4\u5176\u6838\u6269\u5f20\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u751a\u81f3\u65e0\u6cd5\u5c31\u5f7c\u6b64\u6838\u6b66\u5e93\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u51b5\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u9a6c\u4e01\u4e0d\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(MIIS)\u7814\u7a76\u52a9\u7406\u5fb7\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u4f0a\u666e\u52d2\u65af(Decker Eveleth)\u57287\u67083\u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\u9898\u4e3a\u300a<a class=\"wsw__a\" href=\"https:\/\/nonproliferation.org\/peoples-liberation-army-rocket-force-order-of-battle-2023\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2023\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u6218\u6597\u5e8f\u5217<\/a>\u300b(People\u2019s Liberation Army Rocket Force Order of Battle 2023)\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6838\u601d\u7ef4\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ed1\u5323\u5b50\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u8f93\u5165\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9ed1\u5323\u5b50\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9ed1\u5323\u5b50\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u548c\u5df2\u90e8\u7f72\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u65b9\u4e0d\u516c\u5f00\u8ba8\u8bba\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u548c\u6838\u5a01\u6151\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u4e86\u89e3\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u786e\u5207\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4f0a\u666e\u52d2\u65af\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u5b9e\u9645\u90e8\u7f72\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u548c\u6570\u91cf\u5206\u6790, \u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u4e2d\u56fd\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u4e3a\u6570\u4e0d\u591a\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u8fd9\u7bc7\u62a5\u544a\u8be6\u7ec6\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u516d\u4e2a\u65c5\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u5750\u6807\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4f5c\u6218\u5355\u4f4d\u62e5\u6709\u4f55\u79cd\u578b\u53f7\u7684\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u548c\u53d1\u5c04\u88c5\u7f6e\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u52302028\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u62e5\u6709\u8d85\u8fc71000\u4e2a\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39\u53d1\u5c04\u5668\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d507\u4e2a\u5177\u5907\u6838\u80fd\u529b\uff0c342-432\u4e2a\u662f\u5e38\u89c4\u53d1\u5c04\u5668\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11252\u4e2a\u662f\u6838\u5e38\u4e24\u7528\u53d1\u5c04\u5668\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u6d32\u9645\u5bfc\u5f39\u53ef\u76f4\u51fb\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u66f4\u52a0\u96c6\u6743\u63a7\u5236\u6838\u529b\u91cf<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u539f\u540d\u201c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u70ae\u5175\u201d\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0a\u89c4\u6a21\u8f83\u5c0f\uff0c\u80fd\u529b\u6709\u9650\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4e8e2015\u5e74\u5c06\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u63d0\u5347\u4e3a\u5b8c\u5168\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u519b\u79cd\uff0c\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6218\u7565\u5a01\u6151\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u56fd\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u6218\u7565\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u662f\u7ef4\u62a4\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u57fa\u77f3\u201d\u3002\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u90e8\u5982\u4eca\u5df2\u62e5\u6709\u5305\u62ec\u6838\u5e38\u517c\u5907\u3001\u8fdc\u7a0b\u7cbe\u786e\u6253\u51fb\u4ee5\u53ca\u914d\u5907\u8d85\u97f3\u901f\u6ed1\u7fd4\u98de\u884c\u5668\u7b49\u591a\u6837\u5316\u5bfc\u5f39\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u6467\u6bc1\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u9632\u5fa1\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u6253\u51fb\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u822a\u7a7a\u6bcd\u8230\u3001\u8fdb\u884c\u62a5\u590d\u6027\u6838\u6253\u51fb\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wsw__embed wsw__embed--small\">\n<figure class=\"media-image js-media-expand js-media-expand--ready\">\n<div class=\"img-wrap\">\n<div class=\"thumb\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gdb.voanews.com\/01000000-0a00-0242-4c49-08db8a0ab832_w250_r0_s.png\" alt=\"2010\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u7b2c\u4e8c\u70ae\u5175\u90e8\u961f\uff08SAC)\u5404\u4e2a\u65c5\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u5730\u70b9\u3002\uff08source: &quot;People\u2019s Liberation Army Rocket Force Order of Battle 2023&quot;\u62a5\u544a\u622a\u56fe)\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">2010\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u7b2c\u4e8c\u70ae\u5175\u90e8\u961f\uff08SAC)\u5404\u4e2a\u65c5\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u5730\u70b9\u3002\uff08source: &#8220;People\u2019s Liberation Army Rocket Force Order of Battle 2023&#8243;\u62a5\u544a\u622a\u56fe)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u4e0a\u8ff0\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u7684\u4f5c\u6218\u5bfc\u5f39\u65c5\u6570\u91cf\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e00\u756a\u8fbe\u5230\u81f3\u5c1140\u4e2a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5206\u4e3a6\u4e2a\u5bfc\u5f39\u57fa\u5730\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u57fa\u5730\u8d1f\u8d236\u52308\u4e2a\u65c5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u4f5c\u8005\u4f0a\u666e\u52d2\u65af\u8fd8\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b63\u5728\u6269\u5927\u4e95\u57fa\u6d32\u9645\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39\u529b\u91cf(silo-based ICBM)\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u6b63\u5728\u5efa\u8bbe\u5f53\u4e2d\u7684\u7389\u95e8\u3001\u54c8\u5bc6\u3001\u676d\u9526\u65d7\u3001\u5409\u5170\u6cf0\u7b49\u5730\u7684334\u4e2a\u56fa\u4f53\u71c3\u6599\u5bfc\u5f39\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\uff0c\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u8fd8\u5728\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u52a0\u4e1c\u98ce-5\u578b\u6d32\u9645\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39(DF-5)\u7684\u6db2\u4f53\u71c3\u6599\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u672a\u6765\u4e09\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd0\u884c\u4e2d\u7684\u4e1c\u98ce-5\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\u5c06\u4ece18\u4e2a\u589e\u52a0\u5230\u81f3\u5c1148\u4e2a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e95\u57fa\u6d32\u9645\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39\u7684\u65e5\u76ca\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u6539\u53d8\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u7684\u6212\u5907\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u201c\u9664\u4e86\u56fa\u4f53\u71c3\u6599\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\u4e2d\u7684\u5bfc\u5f39\u53ef\u80fd\u5904\u4e8e\u67d0\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u6212\u5907\u72b6\u6001\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u8fd8\u5728\u4e1c\u98ce-5\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\u9644\u8fd1\u5efa\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u6216\u5347\u7ea7\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u5730\u4e0b\u8bbe\u65bd\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u660e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e0c\u671b\u5c06\u6838\u5f39\u5934\u50a8\u5b58\u5728\u9760\u8fd1\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u66f4\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u6218\u5907\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u57fa\u4e8e\u9884\u8b66\u53d1\u5c04(launch-on-warning, LOW)\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4f0a\u666e\u52d2\u65af\u544a\u8bc9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u671d\u7740\u57fa\u4e8e\u9884\u8b66\u53d1\u5c04\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u80cc\u540e\u6709\u519b\u4e8b\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u201c\u5728\u519b\u4e8b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u62c5\u5fc3\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9690\u5f62\u8d44\u4ea7\u4f1a\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u91cf\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u652f\u6301\u4e0b\u6467\u6bc1\u4f60\u7684\u6307\u6325\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u7ed9\u4f60\u65f6\u95f4\u6467\u6bc1\u6b66\u5668\u5e93\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7528\u5bfc\u5f39\u9632\u5fa1\u7cfb\u7edf\u51fb\u843d\u4f60\u540e\u6765\u53d1\u5c04\u7684\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u91c7\u53d6\u9884\u8b66\u53d1\u5c04\u662f\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u4ece\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u56fd\u91c7\u53d6\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u6388\u6743\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u9884\u8b66\u53d1\u5c04\u7684\u6001\u52bf\uff0c\u90a3\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u5c06\u519b\u4e8b\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u6743\u529b\u653e\u5728\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u624b\u4e2d\u3002\u201c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4ed6\u6b63\u5728\u5de9\u56fa\u6743\u529b\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u9884\u8b66\u53d1\u5c04\u662f\u4ed6\u5de9\u56fa\u5bf9\u519b\u4e8b\u4e8b\u52a1\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u7edd\u4f73\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4e54\u6cbb\u57ce\u5927\u5b66\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u5c3c\u53e4\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee(Nicholas Anderson)\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e95\u57fa\u5bfc\u5f39\u662f\u6838\u4e09\u4f4d\u4e00\u4f53\u4e2d\u5f00\u53d1\u6210\u672c\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u5206\uff08\u5982\u8f70\u70b8\u673a\u548c\u6f5c\u8247\uff09\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6bd4\u79fb\u52a8\u5f0f\u9646\u57fa\u6d32\u9645\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39\u66f4\u6613\u4e8e\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u8fd9\u662f\u4ee5\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u6210\u672c\u589e\u52a0\u90e8\u961f\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u529b\u91cf\u4e0d\u4f1a\u79fb\u52a8\uff0c\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u53cd\u51fb\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u68c0\u6d4b\u5230\u6765\u88ad\u5bfc\u5f39\u65f6\u65e0\u6cd5\u79fb\u8d70\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5982\u679c\u5927\u91cf\u4f7f\u7528\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\u8fdb\u884c\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u91c7\u7528\u57fa\u4e8e\u9884\u8b66\u53d1\u5c04\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6709\u4eba\u5411\u4f60\u7684\u6838\u5f39\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\u53d1\u5c04\u6838\u5f39\u5934\u751a\u81f3\u5e38\u89c4\u53cd\u529b\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u4f60\u5c06\u4f1a\u6709\u52a8\u529b\u5728\u5b83\u4eec\u88ab\u6467\u6bc1\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u53d1\u5c04\u51fa\u53bb\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"wsw__embed wsw__embed--small wsw__embed--pull-right\">\n<figure class=\"media-image js-media-expand js-media-expand--ready\">\n<div class=\"img-wrap\">\n<div class=\"thumb\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gdb.voanews.com\/01000000-0a00-0242-7690-08db8a0ab825_w250_r0_s.png\" alt=\"\u4e2d\u56fd\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u5404\u4e2a\u57fa\u5730\u548c\u65c5\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u5730\u70b9\u548c\u6b66\u5668\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\uff08source: &quot;People\u2019s Liberation Army Rocket Force Order of Battle 2023&quot;\u62a5\u544a\u622a\u56fe)\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u5404\u4e2a\u57fa\u5730\u548c\u65c5\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u5730\u70b9\u548c\u6b66\u5668\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\uff08source: &#8220;People\u2019s Liberation Army Rocket Force Order of Battle 2023&#8243;\u62a5\u544a\u622a\u56fe)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u4f0a\u666e\u52d2\u65af\u6700\u65e9\u548c\u540c\u4e8b\u57282021\u5e74\u4ece\u536b\u661f\u56fe\u7247\u63a2\u6d4b\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u5f00\u59cb\u5728\u7518\u8083\u7389\u95e8\u5730\u533a\u5efa\u9020100\u591a\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u5bfc\u5f39\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\u3002\u4ed6\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u5f53\u4e2d\u56fd\u5efa\u8bbe\u56fa\u4f53\u71c3\u6599\u5bfc\u5f39\u4e95\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u4f20\u51fa\u65f6\uff0c\u5916\u754c\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u501f\u6b64\u63d0\u9ad8\u5176\u673a\u52a8\u6838\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u5efa\u7acb\u9700\u8981\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f7f\u7528\u5927\u91cf\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u624d\u80fd\u6253\u51fb\u7684\u5bfc\u5f39\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\uff0c\u6765\u8f6c\u79fb\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ed6\u6700\u65b0\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u4e1c\u98ce-5\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u5c0f\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u8fd9\u79cd\u6218\u7565\u3002\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u63b7\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6709\u610f\u589e\u52a0\u7834\u574f\u529b\uff0c\u4f60\u624d\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u4e1c\u98ce-5\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u6218\u4e89\u5b66\u9662(U.S. Naval War College)\u7814\u7a76\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u548c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u5b89\u5168\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u9f99\u5927\u536b(David Logan)\u544a\u8bc9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u4e5f\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4f0a\u666e\u52d2\u65af\u5173\u4e8e\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u63d0\u9ad8\u6212\u5907\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u4ed6\u4ece\u90e8\u961f\u4ee3\u53f7\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u8d1f\u8d23\u5728\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u57fa\u5730\u5904\u7406\u6838\u5f39\u5934\u7684\u88c5\u68c0\u56e2(equipment inspection regiments)\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u91cd\u65b0\u96b6\u5c5e\u4e8e67\u53f7\u57fa\u5730\uff0c\u8be5\u57fa\u5730\u8d1f\u8d23\u96c6\u4e2d\u5904\u7406\u6838\u5f39\u5934\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9f99\u5927\u536b\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6743\u529b\u8c03\u6574\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u6838\u5f39\u5934\u7684\u96c6\u4e2d\u653f\u6cbb\u63a7\u5236\u4e0e\u53bb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u7684\u5f39\u5934\u50a8\u5b58\u5b9e\u8df5\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u53ef\u4ee5\u62b5\u6d88\u5206\u6563\u5316\u7684\u5f39\u5934\u50a8\u5b58\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5b9a\u671f\u5c06\u90e8\u5206\u90e8\u961f\u7f6e\u4e8e\u8f83\u9ad8\u6212\u5907\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wsw__embed wsw__embed--small\">\n<figure class=\"media-image js-media-expand js-media-expand--ready\">\n<div class=\"img-wrap\">\n<div class=\"thumb\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gdb.voanews.com\/01000000-c0a8-0242-a455-08db8a0a97d7_w250_r0_s.jpg\" alt=\"\u4e2d\u56fd\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u6b63\u5728\u5efa\u8bbe\u4e2d\u6216\u8fd0\u884c\u4e2d\u7684\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\u90e8\u7f72\u5730\u70b9\u3002\uff08source: &quot;People\u2019s Liberation Army Rocket Force Order of Battle 2023&quot;\u62a5\u544a\u622a\u56fe)\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u6b63\u5728\u5efa\u8bbe\u4e2d\u6216\u8fd0\u884c\u4e2d\u7684\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\u90e8\u7f72\u5730\u70b9\u3002\uff08source: &#8220;People\u2019s Liberation Army Rocket Force Order of Battle 2023&#8243;\u62a5\u544a\u622a\u56fe)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201c\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6bd4\u79fb\u52a8\u5bfc\u5f39\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u8981\u6c42\u66f4\u4f4e\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u4e2d\u56fd\u5386\u6765\u559c\u6b22\u7684\u5bf9\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u5c06\u4e95\u57fa\u7cfb\u7edf\u7f6e\u4e8e\u66f4\u9ad8\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u65f6\u671f\u6212\u5907\u72b6\u6001, 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js-media-expand--ready\">\n<div class=\"img-wrap\">\n<div class=\"thumb\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gdb.voanews.com\/01000000-0a00-0242-5b88-08db8a0ab9da_w250_r0_s.jpg\" alt=\"\u4e1c\u98ce-41\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u5730\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u73b0\u6709\u5e93\u5b58\u4e2d\u6700\u65b0\u6700\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u6d32\u9645\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39\uff0c\u53ef\u5c06\u6700\u591a3\u679a\u5f39\u5934\u53d1\u5c04\u5230\u8d85\u8fc713000\u516c\u91cc\u5916\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u53ef\u7784\u51c6\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e1c\u6d77\u5cb8\uff08source: &quot;People\u2019s Liberation Army Rocket Force Order of Battle 2023&quot;\u622a\u56fe)\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">\u4e1c\u98ce-41\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u5730\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u73b0\u6709\u5e93\u5b58\u4e2d\u6700\u65b0\u6700\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u6d32\u9645\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39\uff0c\u53ef\u5c06\u6700\u591a3\u679a\u5f39\u5934\u53d1\u5c04\u5230\u8d85\u8fc713000\u516c\u91cc\u5916\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u53ef\u7784\u51c6\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e1c\u6d77\u5cb8\uff08source: &#8220;People\u2019s Liberation Army Rocket Force Order of Battle 2023&#8243;\u622a\u56fe)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u63d0\u53ca\uff0c\u4e1c\u98ce-17\u9ad8\u8d85\u97f3\u901f\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39(DF-17)\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u5728\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u652f\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u90e8\u961f\u4e2d\u670d\u5f79\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e09\u5e74\u5185\u80af\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5728\u53e6\u5916\u4e09\u4e2a\u65c5\u4e2d\u670d\u5f79\u3002\u4e1c\u98ce-17\u76ee\u524d\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u90e8\u7f72\u5230\u97e9\u56fd\u5468\u8fb9\u5730\u533a\u548c\u53f0\u6e7e\u6d77\u5ce1\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u5728\u53f0\u6d77\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\u63d0\u4f9b\u201c\u6838\u76fe\u724c\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f0a\u666e\u52d2\u65af\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u9488\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u4e2d\uff0c\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\uff0c\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u7684\u8fdc\u7a0b\u706b\u529b\u80fd\u529b\u90fd\u638c\u63e1\u5728\u6218\u7565\u706b\u7bad\u519b(SAC\/PLARF)\u624b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5728\u7a7a\u519b\u548c\u6d77\u519b\u90fd\u62e5\u6709\u5e38\u89c4\u5bfc\u5f39\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u6218\u7565\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u89d2\u8272\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\uff1a\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u9ad8\u8d85\u97f3\u901f\u6ed1\u7fd4\u98de\u884c\u5668\u6467\u6bc1\u6216\u8005\u4f7f\u5f97\u53f0\u6e7e\u5bfc\u5f39\u9632\u5fa1\u8bbe\u65bd\u65e0\u6548\uff0c\u4e3a\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u4ee5\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u5f39\u836f\u6467\u6bc1\u53f0\u6e7e\u7a7a\u519b\u57fa\u5730\u5f00\u8f9f\u9053\u8def\uff1b\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u4e1c\u98ce-26\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u4ee5\u5a01\u80c1\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u66f4\u8fdc\u8ddd\u79bb\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e1c\u98ce-26\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u5c06\u662f\u6467\u6bc1\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u8981\u7f8e\u519b\u57fa\u5730\u548c\u673a\u573a\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u6b63\u5728\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\u589e\u52a0\u5bfc\u5f39\u9632\u5fa1\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u8fd8\u5e94\u52a0\u56fa\u5176\u673a\u573a\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f7f\u7528\u96c6\u675f\u5f39\u836f\u4ee5\u51e0\u53d1\u5c04\u51fb\u5c31\u6467\u6bc1\u5927\u91cf\u98de\u673a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u6218\u4e89\u5b66\u9662\u9f99\u5927\u536b\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6838\u6269\u5f20\u7684\u6218\u7565\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u540e\u679c\u4ecd\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9f13\u52b1\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u53d1\u52a8\u519b\u4e8b\u4fb5\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6838\u5efa\u8bbe\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u2018\u6838\u76fe\u724c\u2019(nuclear shield)\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76fe\u724c\u80cc\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u66f4\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u53d1\u52a8\u5e38\u89c4\u653b\u51fb\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u6838\u5efa\u8bbe\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u610f\u613f\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653e\u677e\u5bf9\u5176\u6838\u529b\u91cf\u957f\u671f\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u64cd\u4f5c\u548c\u6280\u672f\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u5371\u673a\u6216\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\u6838\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"wsw__embed\">\n<figure class=\"media-image js-media-expand js-media-expand--ready\">\n<div class=\"img-wrap\">\n<div class=\"thumb\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" enhanced\" src=\"https:\/\/gdb.voanews.com\/80200000-c0a8-0242-e559-08da76f910f2_w650_r0_s.jpg\" alt=\"\u4e2d\u5171\u5b98\u5a92\u65b0\u534e\u793e\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u7167\u7247\u663e\u793a\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u4e1c\u90e8\u6218\u533a\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u5728\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7ed5\u53f0\u519b\u6f14\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u8fdc\u7a0b\u5bfc\u5f39\u5b9e\u5f39\u6f14\u4e60\u3002\uff082022\u5e748\u67084\u65e5\uff09\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">\u4e2d\u5171\u5b98\u5a92\u65b0\u534e\u793e\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u7167\u7247\u663e\u793a\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u4e1c\u90e8\u6218\u533a\u706b\u7bad\u519b\u5728\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7ed5\u53f0\u519b\u6f14\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u8fdc\u7a0b\u5bfc\u5f39\u5b9e\u5f39\u6f14\u4e60\u3002\uff082022\u5e748\u67084\u65e5\uff09<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4f1a\u5426\u98a0\u8986\u4e2d\u56fd\u6838\u653f\u7b56\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u6838\u6001\u52bf\u4e0a\u5ba3\u79f0\u606a\u5b88\u201c\u6700\u4f4e\u6838\u5a01\u6151\u201d(minimum deterrence)\u7b49\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u5728\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u90e8\u7f72\u4e0a\u4fa7\u91cd\u4fdd\u6301\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u6253\u51fb\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5373\u6838\u53cd\u51fb\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u5927\u5e45\u6269\u5f20\u90e8\u7f72\u7684\u6838\u529b\u91cf\u4f3c\u4e4e\u548c\u5176\u4f20\u7edf\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u58f0\u660e\u683c\u683c\u4e0d\u5165\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728\u4e2d\u5171\u4e8c\u5341\u5927\u62a5\u544a\u5ba3\u79f0\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb\u201c\u7cbe\u5e72\u6709\u6548\u201d\u7684\u6838\u529b\u91cf\u539f\u5219\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u6253\u9020\u5f3a\u5927\u6218\u7565\u5a01\u6151\u529b\u91cf\u4f53\u7cfb\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u9884\u8b66\u53d1\u5c04\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u56fa\u4f53\u71c3\u6599\u5bfc\u5f39\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u77ac\u95f4\u53d1\u52a8\u6838\u653b\u51fb\u3002\u201d\u4f0a\u666e\u52d2\u65af\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6838\u529b\u91cf\u6700\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u53d1\u5c04\u5668\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ece\u5bf9\u624b\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b8c\u6210\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u672c\u571f\u7684\u653b\u51fb\u540e\u624d\u53d1\u5c04\u6838\u5bfc\u5f39\u7684\u201c\u62a5\u590d\u8ba1\u5212\u201d (retaliation plan)\uff0c\u660e\u663e\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u201c\u57fa\u4e8e\u9884\u8b66\u53d1\u5c04\u201d (LOW)\u7684\u6838\u6001\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f0a\u666e\u52d2\u65af\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u63d0\u5347\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e4b\u95f4\u4ece\u5e38\u89c4\u51b2\u7a81\u5347\u7ea7\u4e3a\u6838\u5927\u6218\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u5e38\u89c4\u6218\u4e2d\u653b\u51fb\u4e2d\u56fd\u7528\u4e8e\u6218\u7565\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u96f7\u8fbe\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u8bef\u89e3\u4e3a\u66f4\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u201c\u9650\u5236\u635f\u4f24\u201d\uff08Damage Limitation\uff09\u7684\u6838\u6253\u51fb\u524d\u594f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u56fd\u9645\u548c\u5e73\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684\u8d75\u901a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0a\u975e\u5e38\u53cd\u5bf9\u57fa\u4e8e\u9884\u8b66\u53d1\u5c04\u8fd9\u79cd\u90e8\u7f72\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4ece\u51b7\u6218\u5230\u51b7\u6218\u540e\u53d1\u751f\u8fc7\u591a\u6b21\u7684\u9884\u8b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ea7\u751f\u865a\u8b66\u7684\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u672c\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u65b9\u7684\u5bfc\u5f39\u6765\u88ad\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5404\u79cd\u6280\u672f\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u53d1\u51fa\u4e86\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u8b66\u62a5\u3002\u201c\u5982\u679c\u57fa\u4e8e\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u8b66\u62a5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6838\u53cd\u51fb\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u5e73\u767d\u65e0\u6545\u5730\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u6838\u5927\u6218\u3002 \u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u81ea1964\u5e74\u9996\u6b21\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u540e\u81f3\u4eca\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4ecd\u7136\u58f0\u79f0\u9075\u5faa\u201c\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u201d\u7684\u6838\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f46\u4f0a\u666e\u52d2\u65af\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u8ba1\u5212\u66f4\u52a0\u6311\u8845\u6027\u5730\u5229\u7528\u5176\u65b0\u5efa\u7684\u6838\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6838\u8d44\u4ea7\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u6700\u7ec8\u8f6c\u5411\u66f4\u5177\u4fb5\u7565\u6027\u7684\u6838\u6001\u52bf\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u5bb9\u6613\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u65b0\u95fb\u7f51Warrior Maven<a class=\"wsw__a\" href=\"https:\/\/warriormaven.com\/global-security\/chinas-icbms-can-reach-continental-us-from-mainland-chin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u62a5\u9053<\/a>\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7a7a\u519b\u90e8\u957f\u5f17\u5170\u514b\u00b7\u80af\u5fb7\u5c14(Frank Kendall) 2021\u5e74\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u589e\u52a0\u6570\u767e\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u9646\u57fa\u56fa\u5b9a\u6d32\u9645\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39\u53d1\u5c04\u4e95\u7684\u4e3e\u52a8\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u53d1\u5c55\u201c\u9996\u6b21\u6253\u51fb\u201d\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u6218\u4e89\u5b66\u9662\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u9f99\u5927\u536b\u672c\u6708\u5373\u5c06\u53d1\u8868\u4e00\u7bc7\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u5927\u5b66\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4efb\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u00b7\u6851\u5fb7\u65af(Philip Saunders)\u5171\u540c\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u6807\u9898\u4e3a\u300a\u8fa8\u8bc6\u4e2d\u56fd\u6838\u529b\u91cf\u53d1\u5c55\u52a8\u56e0\uff1a\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u6307\u6807\u4e0e\u6570\u636e\u300b(Discerning the Drivers of China&#8217;s Nuclear Force Development: Models, Indicators, and Data)\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u3002\u4ed6\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\u72ec\u5bb6\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8349\u7a3f\u663e\u793a\uff0c2011 \u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f30\u8ba1\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u6838\u5f39\u5934\u4e0d\u5230 180 \u679a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e0d\u5230 40 \u679a\u53ef\u4ee5\u6253\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u636e\u4fe1\u62e5\u6709\u7ea6 400 \u679a\u6838\u5f39\u5934\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8fd1 200 \u679a\u53ef\u4ee5\u6253\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5728\u5a01\u6151\u6838\u6253\u51fb\u3001\u9632\u6b62\u6838\u8bb9\u8bc8\u548c\u8fdb\u884c\u6838\u53cd\u51fb\u65b9\u9762\u662f\u6709\u7528\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5305\u62ec\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728\u5185\u7684\u4e2d\u5171\u9ad8\u7ea7\u5b98\u5458\u5bf9\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u548c\u6838\u6218\u7565\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u5f00\u59cb\u5728\u6743\u5a01\u7684\u515a\u548c\u519b\u961f\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\u4e2d\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u4e8c\u6b21\u6253\u51fb(secure second-strike)\u3001\u6838\u4fdd\u62a4\u4f1e(nuclear shield)\u548c\u5927\u56fd\u5730\u4f4d(Great Power status)\u8fd9\u4e09\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6838\u529b\u91cf\u53d1\u5c55\u8f68\u8ff9\u6700\u4e3a\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4fdd\u6301\u76f8\u5bf9\u514b\u5236\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u59ff\u6001\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9002\u5ea6\u7684\u8b66\u6212\u72b6\u6001\u3001\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u53d1\u5c04\u6743\u9650\u59d4\u6d3e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5e76\u7ee7\u7eed\u575a\u6301\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u56fd\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u4e1c\u4e9a\u6240\u8d44\u6df1\u8bbf\u95ee\u5b66\u8005\u9ece\u6960\u544a\u8bc9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6838\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u5426\u53d1\u751f\u6839\u672c\u6027\u8f6c\u53d8\u5e76\u5e9f\u9664\u201c\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u201d\uff0c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6218\u7565\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u5a01\u529b\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u6218\u672f\u6838\u6b66\u5668(tactic nuclear weapons)\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u5c06\u6784\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6218\u672f\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\u6838\u6218\u4e89\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6253\u8d62\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u9650\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u662f\u6700\u5173\u952e\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u6709\u52a8\u673a\u53d1\u5c55\u9996\u6b21\u6253\u51fb\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5e38\u89c4\u519b\u4e8b\u5efa\u8bbe\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1a\u7528\u6218\u672f\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u5bf9\u6297\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e2d\u56fd\u600e\u4e48\u5bf9\u6297\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u672f\u6838\u6b66\u5668\uff1f\u5b83\u4e5f\u8981\u53d1\u5c55\uff08\u6218\u672f\u6838\u6b66\u5668\uff09\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u9ece\u69602022\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f1a\u653e\u5f03\u201c\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u201d\u7684\u6838\u653f\u7b56\u5417\uff1f\u300b<a class=\"wsw__a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thinkchina.sg\/will-china-abandon-its-no-first-use-nuclear-policy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6587\u7ae0<\/a>\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u89c4\u5212\u8005\u5bf9\u201c\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u201d\u8868\u793a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u6ee1\uff0c \u6709\u89c2\u70b9\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u53d7\u5230\u4e0b\u5217\u4e25\u91cd\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u53d1\u52a8\u9996\u6b21\u6838\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u5e38\u89c4\u90e8\u961f\u65e0\u529b\u4fdd\u536b\u4e2d\u56fd\u514d\u53d7\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5916\u654c\u5165\u4fb5\uff0c\u9762\u4e34\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5916\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u5e72\u9884\u7ef4\u62a4\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u4e00\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u201c\u5de8\u5927\u5a01\u80c1\u201d\uff08\u6697\u793a\u7740\u53f0\u6d77\u51b2\u7a81\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e09\u5ce1\u5927\u575d\u7b49\u751f\u6b7b\u6538\u5173\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u8fd8\u6709\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u3001\u6838\u57fa\u5730\u906d\u5230\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u5e38\u89c4\u653b\u51fb\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wsw__embed\">\n<figure class=\"media-image js-media-expand js-media-expand--ready\">\n<div class=\"img-wrap\">\n<div class=\"thumb\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" enhanced\" 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