{"id":105055,"date":"2024-04-15T14:44:11","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T18:44:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=105055"},"modified":"2024-04-15T15:49:14","modified_gmt":"2024-04-15T19:49:14","slug":"%e3%80%8a%e5%8f%b0%e6%b9%be%e5%85%b3%e7%b3%bb%e6%b3%95%e3%80%8b45%e5%91%a8%e5%b9%b4-%e8%90%a7%e7%be%8e%e7%90%b4%ef%bc%9a%e5%8f%b0%e6%b9%be%e5%b0%86%e6%8c%81%e7%bb%ad%e5%bc%ba%e5%8c%96%e5%9b%bd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=105055","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u53f0\u6e7e\u5173\u7cfb\u6cd5\u300b45\u5468\u5e74 \u8427\u7f8e\u7434\uff1a\u53f0\u6e7e\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u5f3a\u5316\u56fd\u9632 \u53f0\u5b66\u8005\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u6218\u7565\u6e05\u6670\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"date-time-area \">\n<div class=\"container\"><span class=\"date-time\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u65f6\u95f4 3:45 2024\u5e744\u670816\u65e5 \u661f\u671f\u4e8c<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"content\">\n<div 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class=\"caption\">4\u670813\u65e5\uff0c\u300a\u53f0\u6e7e\u5173\u7cfb\u6cd5\u300b\u7b7e\u7f7245\u5468\u5e74\uff0c\u798f\u5c14\u6469\u6c99\u5171\u548c\u4f1a\u5728\u53f0\u5317\u4e3e\u884c\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\uff0c\u4e0e\u4f1a\u5b66\u8005\u805a\u7126\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u8be5\u8c03\u6574\u201d\u6218\u7565\u6a21\u7cca\u201c\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5413\u963b\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u8427\u7f8e\u7434\u8bf4: \u201c\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\u6c11\u9700\u8981\u5c55\u73b0\u634d\u536b\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u548c\u6211\u4eec\u4e3b\u6743\u7684\u51b3\u5fc3\uff0c\u63d0\u5347\u56fd\u9632\u9884\u7b97\u5e76\u52a0\u901f\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u591f\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u56fd\u9645\u53cb\u4eba\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u8427\u7f8e\u7434\u5728\u8bb2\u8bdd\u4e2d\u91cd\u7533\u53f0\u6e7e\u5019\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u8d56\u6e05\u5fb7\uff08Lai Ching-te\uff09\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7ef4\u62a4\u53f0\u6d77\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u201c\u56db\u5927\u652f\u67f1\u201d&#8211;\u53f0\u6e7e\u5c06\u5f3a\u5316\u56fd\u9632\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u5efa\u6784\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u6df1\u5316\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u5e76\u627f\u8bfa\u7a33\u5b9a\u800c\u6709\u539f\u5219\u7684\u4e24\u5cb8\u9886\u5bfc\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5979\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e5f\u90fd\u662f\u672a\u6765\u53f0\u7f8e\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u9762\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b63\u79ef\u6781\u534f\u52a9\u53f0\u6e7e\u5f3a\u5316\u81ea\u6211\u9632\u536b\u529b\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u300a\u53f0\u6e7e\u5173\u7cfb\u6cd5\u300b\u6240\u627f\u8bfa\u7684\u519b\u552e\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e5f\u901a\u8fc7\u7acb\u6cd5\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5982\u603b\u7edf\u62e8\u6b3e\u6743(Presidential Drawdown Authority)\u3001\u5916\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u878d\u8d44\uff08Foreign Military Financing\uff09\u53ca\u56fd\u9645\u519b\u4e8b\u6559\u80b2\u4e0e\u8bad\u7ec3\u7b49\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u6765\u5f3a\u5316\u53f0\u6e7e\u56fd\u9632\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8427\u7f8e\u7434\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a1979\u5e74\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u300a\u53f0\u6e7e\u5173\u7cfb\u6cd5\u300b\u662f\u53f0\u7f8e\u975e\u5b98\u65b9\u5f80\u6765\u7684\u6cd5\u6e90\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5176\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u7ef4\u6301\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u3001\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u300245\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e24\u515a\u5bf9\u53f0\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u627f\u8bfa\u4e00\u81f4\u4e14\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u4e24\u56fd\u76ee\u524d\u5171\u540c\u9762\u4e34\u65b0\u7684\u53d8\u5c40\u548c\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u5982\u4fc4\u4e4c\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u7ea2\u6d77\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u5357\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u5c40\u52bf\u5347\u6e29\u53ca\u4e2d\u5171\u79ef\u6781\u6269\u5f20\u519b\u529b\u5e76\u5bf9\u53f0\u6587\u653b\u6b66\u5413\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8427\u7f8e\u7434\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u603b\u7edf\u8521\u82f1\u65878\u5e74\u6765\u4ee5\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u98ce\u683c\u8ba9\u53f0\u7f8e\u95f4\u8fbe\u5230\u201c\u96f6\u610f\u5916\u201d\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u5373\u5c06\u4e0a\u4efb\u7684\u8d56\u6e05\u5fb7\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u4f7f\u547d\u611f\uff0c\u8981\u8ba9\u53f0\u6e7e\u5728\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e2d\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u8d21\u732e\u533a\u57df\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5b66\u8005\u805a\u7126\u201c\u6218\u7565\u6a21\u7cca\u201d\u662f\u5426\u8be5\u8c03\u6574<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5361\u7279\u653f\u5e9c1979\u5e74\u65e0\u9884\u8b66\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5efa\u4ea4\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u4e8e\u5f53\u5e744\u670810\u65e5\u5f3a\u529b\u901a\u8fc7\u300a\u53f0\u6e7e\u5173\u7cfb\u6cd5\u300b\u3002\u8fd9\u90e8\u88ab\u5916\u754c\u89c6\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u5177\u56fd\u9645\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5b9a\u8c03\u7f8e\u53f0\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u533a\u57df\u5b89\u5168\u7ef4\u62a4\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u6cd5\u660e\u5b9a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u4e49\u52a1\u5bf9\u53f0\u63d0\u4f9b\u9632\u5fa1\u6027\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u4e14\u201c\u4e25\u91cd\u5173\u5207\u201d\u4efb\u4f55\u4ee5\u975e\u548c\u5e73\u65b9\u5f0f\u51b3\u5b9a\u53f0\u6e7e\u524d\u9014\u7684\u4f01\u56fe\uff0c\u8be5\u4e3e\u52a8\u5c06\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5bf9\u897f\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5730\u533a\u548c\u5e73\u4e0e\u5b89\u5b9a\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u300a\u53f0\u6e7e\u5173\u7cfb\u6cd5\u300b\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u786e\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u5171\u6b66\u529b\u72af\u53f0\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5fc5\u51fa\u5175\u5e72\u9884\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u5bf9\u53f0\u201c\u6218\u7565\u6a21\u7cca\u201d\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u201c\u6218\u7565\u6a21\u7cca(Strategic Ambiguity)\u201d\u7acb\u573a\u591a\u5e74\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4fdd\u6709\u5f39\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u53f0\u6d77\u4e24\u5cb8\u653f\u5e9c\u8fbe\u5230\u201c\u53cc\u91cd\u5413\u963b(Dual Deterrence)\u201d\u7684\u6548\u679c&#8211;\u5317\u4eac\u56e0\u5fcc\u60ee\u7f8e\u56fd\u51fa\u5175\u800c\u4e0d\u6562\u8f7b\u7387\u52a8\u6b66\uff0c\u800c\u53f0\u6e7e\u5219\u56e0\u62c5\u5fc3\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u51fa\u5175\u534f\u9632\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6562\u8f7b\u8a00\u72ec\u7acb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u201c\u6218\u7565\u6a21\u7cca\u201d\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u5230\u4e86\u8be5\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u65f6\u673a\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a13\u65e5\u201c\u53f0\u6e7e\u5173\u7cfb\u6cd545\u5468\u5e74\u8bba\u575b\u201d\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u4e0e\u4f1a\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u7126\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7f8e\u4fee\u6539\u300a\u53f0\u6e7e\u5173\u7cfb\u6cd5\u300b\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u514b\u5c3d\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u529b\u91cf<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u53f0\u5317\u7684\u4e2d\u7814\u9662\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u535a\u58eb\u540e\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u6e29\u8d3e\u8212\uff08Joshua Thomas Wenger\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2022\u5e74\u4fc4\u4e4c\u6218\u4e89\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u6c11\u8c03\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u6c11\u4f17\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6d3e\u5175\u534f\u9632\u53f0\u6d77\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u7591\u8651\u5feb\u901f\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5f53\u65f6\u201c\u7591\u7f8e\u8bba\u201d\u751a\u56a3\u5c18\u4e0a\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u4e54\u00b7\u62dc\u767b\uff08Joe Biden )\u591a\u6b21\u53e3\u5934\u8868\u660e\u5c06\u51fa\u5175\u4fdd\u62a4\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u6c11\u4f17\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u624d\u968f\u4e4b\u56de\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6e29\u8d3e\u8212\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u6218\u7565\u6a21\u7cca\u201d\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u4e3b\u8981\u62c5\u5fe7\u201c\u642d\u4fbf\u8f66\u201d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5373\u53f0\u6e7e\u82e5\u77e5\u9053\u7f8e\u56fd\u613f\u610f\u534f\u9632\uff0c\u6050\u4e0d\u518d\u5f3a\u5316\u81ea\u6211\u9632\u536b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5fc3\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6e29\u8d3e\u8212\u8bf4: \u6c11\u8c03\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u76f8\u4fe1\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1a\u4fdd\u536b\u53f0\u6e7e\u548c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec(\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba)\u5e94\u8be5\u4f18\u5148\u8003\u8651\u519b\u4e8b\u5f00\u652f\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u5206\u6790\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u642d\u4fbf\u8f66\u5047\u8bbe\u5e76\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u6e29\u8d3e\u8212\u8bf4\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u82e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u4fee\u6539\u300a\u53f0\u6e7e\u5173\u7cfb\u6cd5\u300b\uff0c\u5347\u9ad8\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\u4e0e\u7f8e\u65b9\u7ed3\u76df\u5e76\u514b\u5c3d\u81ea\u5df1\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u610f\u613f\u4e5f\u968f\u4e4b\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f4d\u4e8e\u53f0\u5317\u7684\u653f\u5927\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u8bbf\u95ee\u5b66\u8005\u5409\u8010\u72ee\uff08Guermantes Lailari\uff09\u66fe\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7a7a\u519b\u670d\u5f79\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u5728\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u4e2d\u76f4\u8a00\uff0c\u904f\u5236\u4e2d\u4fc4\u7684\u4fb5\u7565\u884c\u4e3a\u6538\u5173\u7f8e\u56fd\u6838\u5fc3\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6218\u7565\u66fe\u591a\u6b21\u63d0\u53ca\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u51f8\u663e\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5409\u8010\u72ee\u8ba4\u4e3a, 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