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\u8d22\u653f\u56f0\u5883\u56e0\u5168\u56fd\u53bf\u3001\u9547\u653f\u5e9c\u5df2\u7ecf\u76f8\u5f53\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u8d1f\u503a\u72b6\u51b5\u800c\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u72b6\u51b5\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u6b63\u5728\u8003\u8651\u91c7\u53d6\u4e25\u5389\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u5305\u62ec\u5b8c\u5168\u64a4\u9500\u9547\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u4ee5\u96b6\u5c5e\u4e8e\u53bf\u7684\u534f\u8c03\u673a\u6784\u6765\u4ee3\u66ff\u5b83\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u8ba1\u5212\u3002Oi(2003).\u8fd9\u80fd\u591f\u4f7f\u9547\u6446\u8131\u5f53\u524d\u589e\u52a0\u5176\u6210\u672c\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u5b98\u5458\u804c\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u65b0\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u9547\u653f\u5e9c\u53ca\u5b98\u5458\u5982\u4eca\u65e2\u8d1f\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5f53\u5730\u5de5\u4e1a\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002\u64a4\u9500\u8fd9\u7ea7\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u4ea7\u751f\u9700\u4ed8\u6e05\u88ab\u5f52\u8fd8\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6781\u5176\u607c\u4eba\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u88ab\u89e3\u96c7\u7684\u5b98\u5458\u5230\u4f55\u5904\u53bb\u5bfb\u6c42\u65b0\u804c\u4e5f\u6beb\u65e0\u7709\u76ee\u30021998\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u7cbe\u7b80\u5404\u7ea7\u7f16\u5236\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e2d\u592e\u673a\u6784\u7cbe\u7b80\u4e8650%\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u53bf\u3001\u9547\u673a\u6784\u4ec5\u7cbe\u7b80\u4e8620%\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0a\u7ea7\u673a\u6784\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u90a3\u4e9b\u88ab\u7cbe\u7b80\u4eba\u5458\u6536\u5165\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u800c\u5730\u65b9\u5c42\u6b21\u5219\u4e0d\u5177\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6e05\u7406\u4e61\u9547\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u800c\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u63d0\u8bae\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u52aa\u529b\u627f\u62c5\u7740\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u653f\u6cbb\u9ebb\u70e6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5c06\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0e\u5f53\u5730\u6c11\u4f17\u5206\u79bb\u7684\u884c\u653f\u673a\u6784\u4ee3\u66ff\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u8003\u8651\u6210\u719f\u7684\u5411\u76f4\u63a5\u9009\u4e3e\u8fc7\u6e21\u7684\u4e00\u7ea7\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u5171\u529b\u56fe\u627e\u5230\u589e\u52a0\u5728\u4eba\u6c11\u4e2d\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fd9\u4e00\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u5012\u9000\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u53d8\u5316\u5c06\u5927\u5927\u589e\u52a0\u53bf\u653f\u5e9c\u5df2\u7ecf\u627f\u8f7d\u7684\u884c\u653f\u8d1f\u62c5\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u73af\u5883\u95ee\u9898\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7ed9\u672a\u6765\u8499\u4e0a\u4e86\u9634\u5f71\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u7b2c\u5341\u7ae0\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u589e\u5f3a\u6548\u7387\u7684\u673a\u6784\u6539\u9769\u4ee5\u53ca\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u6709\u7834\u574f\u6027\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u7528\u6c34\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u5c31\u5bf9\u4eba\u53e3\u7a20\u5bc6\u7684\u534e\u5317\u5e73\u539f\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u65bd\u52a0\u4e86\u4ee5\u6c34\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u5236\u7ea6\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u73af\u5883\u95ee\u9898\u6b63\u5728\u4f7f\u53ef\u8015\u5730\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u6025\u5267\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u57ce\u5e02\u5c45\u6c11\u5bf9\u751f\u6d3b\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u5fe7\u8651\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u6210\u672c\u90fd\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\u3002Economy(2004).<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u5317\u4eac\u5c1d\u8bd5\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u7ed9\u897f\u85cf\u5e26\u6765\u548c\u5e73\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u201c\u6587\u5316\u5927\u9769\u547d\u201d\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u72c2\u91ce\u7684\u7ea2\u536b\u5175\u6467\u6bc1\u4e86\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5bfa\u5e99\u548c\u5587\u561b\u4eec\u7684\u4eba\u9020\u5b97\u6559\u8bbe\u65bd\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b66\u6821\u300280\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u901a\u8fc7\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u5f53\u5730\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u8d62\u53d6\u85cf\u6c11\u4eba\u5fc3\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e00\u4e9b\u897f\u85cf\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u5e73\u5f97\u5230\u5b9e\u9645\u6539\u5584\u3002\u5317\u4eac\u4e0d\u4f1a\u653e\u5f03\u5b83\u5bf9\u897f\u85cf\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u6cbb\u7406\uff0c\u4f46\u7ef4\u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u6cbb\u7406\u7684\u6210\u672c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8f83\u9ad8\u3002Goldstein(1997).<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u5bf9\u5317\u4eac\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u5404\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u4e0e\u65b0\u7586\u548c\u897f\u85cf\u7684\u5f62\u52bf\u6240\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u6709\u7740\u677e\u6563\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u5f53\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u4eba\u4e8e1949\u5e74\u8d62\u5f97\u5185\u6218\u65f6\uff0c\u848b\u4ecb\u77f3\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u9003\u5f80\u53f0\u6e7e\u53ca\u9644\u8fd1\u5c9b\u5c7f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u4e2d\u6b62\u4e86\u5baa\u6cd5\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u519b\u4e8b\u7ba1\u5236\u653f\u6743\u3002Clough(1978).\u5317\u4eac\u4e8e1950\u5e74\u593a\u53d6\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u671d\u9c9c\u6218\u4e89\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c06\u5176\u4fdd\u62a4\u4f1e\u6269\u5927\u5230\u4e86\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u5f53\u5c40\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6d77\u519b\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u65e0\u6cd5\u8de8\u8fc7\u53f0\u6e7e\u6d77\u5ce1\u5bf9\u6297\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b2c\u4e03\u8230\u961f\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u51b7\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u524d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5f62\u52bf\u5c31\u88ab\u6253\u7834\u30021971\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u573a\u8d62\u53d6\u53cd\u5bf9\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff08\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5e2e\u52a9\u81ea\u5df1\u4ece\u8d8a\u5357\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u4f53\u9762\u8131\u8eab\uff09\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u4e2d\uff0c\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u4e0e\u4e2d\u534e\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u6062\u590d\u90a6\u4ea4\u7684\u6218\u7565\u6027\u52aa\u529b\u30021979\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b63\u5f0f\u628a\u5bf9\u5168\u4e2d\u56fd\u552f\u4e00\u5408\u6cd5\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u627f\u8ba4\u4ece\u4e2d\u534e\u6c11\u56fd\u8f6c\u5411\u4e86\u4e2d\u534e\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4fdd\u6301\u4e86\u201c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u56fd\u201d\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e86\u5b83\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u957f\u671f\u627f\u8ba4\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u975e\u5e38\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u8ba9\u5317\u4eac\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u671f\u671b\u4e2d\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u5411\u4e2d\u534e\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u5fc5\u987b\u4ee5\u548c\u5e73\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u3002Freenam(1998).<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u81f3\u4eca\u4fdd\u6301\u7740\u4e0e\u4e2d\u534e\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u5206\u79bb\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5374\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u6781\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u51ed\u501f\u519b\u4e8b\u7ba1\u5236\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u768440\u5e74\u7edf\u6cbb\u540e\uff0c\u81ea80\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u6f14\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7fbd\u7ffc\u4e30\u6ee1\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u793e\u4f1a\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u653f\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u63a5\u53d7\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\uff08\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5438\u53d6\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u300270\u5e74\u4ee3\u548c80\u5e74\u4ee3\u53f0\u6e7e\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u901a\u8fc7\u9020\u5c31\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u89c4\u6a21\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u4ee5\u53ca\u6269\u5927\u56fd\u9645\u4ea4\u5f80\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u5148\u662f\u89e3\u9664\u4e86\u6212\u4e25\u4ee4\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u53c8\u5141\u8bb8\u9009\u4e3e\u9010\u6b65\u4ece\u5730\u65b9\u6269\u5927\u52301996\u5e74\u7684\u201c\u4e2d\u534e\u6c11\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u201d\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u3002Chao and Myers(1998);Dickson(1997).\u57282000\u5e743\u6708\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c4a\u201c\u603b\u7edf\u201d\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\uff0c\u81ea20\u4e16\u7eaa\u65e9\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u7684\u653f\u515a\u8d62\u5f97\u4e86\u201c\u603b\u7edf\u201d\u804c\u4f4d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u515a\uff0c\u5373\u6c11\u8fdb\u515a\uff0c\u62e5\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u8981\u6c42\u53f0\u6e7e\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u821e\u53f0\u4e0a\u53d6\u5f97\u5408\u6cd5\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u515a\u7ae0\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u6c11\u8fdb\u515a\u6210\u5458\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u662f\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u7684\u7956\u5148\u901a\u5e38\u662f400\u591a\u5e74\u524d\u4ece\u5927\u9646\u7684\u798f\u5efa\u7701\u79fb\u6c11\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5177\u6709\u4e2d\u56fd\u8840\u7edf\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u4ee3\u5904\u4e8e\u5927\u9646\u7edf\u6cbb\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f46\u7ecf\u8fc7\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u5c55\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u6587\u5316\u3002\u4ece1895\u5e74\u76f4\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u6b96\u6c11\u7edf\u6cbb\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u611f\u3002Chu and Lin(2001).\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u6f14\u8fdb\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u5c9b\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\u2014\u2014\u4f5c\u4e3a20\u4e16\u7eaa40\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u5728\u4e0e\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u4eba\u7684\u5185\u6218\u4e2d\u5931\u8d25\u540e\u9003\u5230\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u5927\u9646\u4eba\u7684\u5bf9\u7acb\u9762\u2014\u2014\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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