{"id":15912,"date":"2010-09-20T08:50:16","date_gmt":"2010-09-20T08:50:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=15912 "},"modified":"2010-09-20T08:50:16","modified_gmt":"2010-09-20T08:50:16","slug":"15912-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=15912","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u79ef\u6781\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u8c03\u9002\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49"},"content":{"rendered":"

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China\\’s Reaction to the Colored Revolutions Adaptive Authoritarianism in Full Swing<\/STRONG><\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aTitus C. Chen\uff08\u9648\u81f3\u6d01\uff09<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u8bd1\u8005\uff1a@jiangge09\u3001@hsinwang1982 @Ytblf\u3001@Freeman7777<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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——————————————————————————–<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u6458\u8981<\/STRONG><\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u5bfc\u8a00<\/STRONG><\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u56de\u5934\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u80e1\u9526\u6d9b\u4e3b\u5e2d\u751a\u81f3\u65e9\u5728\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u5f00\u59cb\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ece\u5176\u524d\u4efb\u6c5f\u6cfd\u6c11\u79c9\u6301\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u8def\u7ebf\uff08\u8bd1\u6ce8\uff1a\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\uff09\u8f6c\u5411\u4e86\u3002\u80e1\u653f\u5e9c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u76f4\u90fd\u5728\u575a\u6301\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u653f\u5e9c\u8d44\u52a9\u7684\u667a\u5e93\u548c\u8d1f\u8d23\u5b89\u5168\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u5b98\u50da\u673a\u6784\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\uff0c\u5229\u75282004-2005\u5e74\u7684\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u4f7f\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5f3a\u786c\u8def\u7ebf\u8d8b\u52bf\u5408\u6cd5\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u8d4b\u4e88\u5176\u5b9e\u8d28\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u56e0\u5e94\u7b56\u7565\u8ddfBeissinger\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u7cbe\u82f1\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u5f0f\u201d(\u201celite learning model\u201d)\u975e\u5e38\u4e4b\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u4ee5\u5e26\u6709\u8c03\u9002\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49(adaptive authoritarianism)\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u6765\u632b\u8d25\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u7684\u6269\u6563\u548c\u590d\u5236\u3002Mark R. Beissinger, \u201cStructure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena: The Diffusion of
Bulldozer\/Rose\/Orange\/Tulip Revolutions,\u201d Perspective on Politics, vol. 5, No. 2 (2007), pp. 261, 269-70.  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n


\u672c\u6587\u7531\u4e24\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7ec4\u6210\u3002\u6211\u9996\u5148\u8c03\u67e5\u4e86\u7531\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f53\u6743\u6d3e\u4e13\u5bb6\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u5c40\u52bf\u5206\u6790\u548c\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8a00\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d44\u52a9\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784\u7684\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cbe\u82f1\u77e5\u8bc6\u793e\u7fa4\uff08elite epistemic community\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u51fa\u7248\u7269\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u5bf9\u515a\u6240\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u79e9\u5e8f\u548c\u72ec\u88c1\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5f3a\u70c8\u8ba4\u540c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u4e09\u9879\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u7684\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\uff1a\u56fd\u5185\u6c11\u4f17\u5bf9\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u6b20\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6c11\u6028\uff0c\u5b98\u5458\u8150\u8d25\uff0c\u79cd\u65cf\u3001\u65cf\u7fa4\u548c\u533a\u57df\u5dee\u8ddd\uff1b\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u4e0d\u6ee1\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u6240\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5316\u7684\u6297\u8bae\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5148\u524d\u5468\u8fb9\u56fd\u5bb6\u6210\u529f\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5bf9\u90a3\u79cd\u53cd\u5bf9\u8fd0\u52a8\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6a21\u4eff\uff1b\u897f\u65b9\u52bf\u529b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u548c\u6697\u4e2d\u7684\u5e72\u6d89\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5e72\u9884\u4e3a\u53d1\u751f\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u672c\u571f\u53cd\u5a01\u6743\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u540e\u52e4\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u652f\u63f4\u3002
 
\u5728\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bca\u65ad\u7684\u6bcf\u9879\u7ec4\u6210\u5143\u7d20\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u67e5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5f53\u6743\u6d3e\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u505a\u4e00\u756a\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e48\u505a\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u8fd0\u7528\u4e86\u4ece\u53d7\u5230\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u540e\u5217\u5b81\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u6743\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\u5230\u7684\u201c\u6559\u8bad\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8981\u53bb\u9632\u6b62\u4efb\u4f55\u7531\u56fd\u5185\u717d\u52a8\u7684\u6216\u5916\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u7684\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u91cd\u6f14\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u786e\u8ba4\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u5a01\u6743\u53d1\u5c55\u4e3b\u4e49\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u6027\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6566\u4fc3\u515a\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65b0\u95fb\u754c\u548c\u5a92\u4f53\u7684\u62a5\u9053\u5185\u5bb9\u548c\u6d3b\u52a8\u8303\u56f4\u4fdd\u6301\u6709\u6548\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u53bb\u575a\u5b9a\u5730\u904f\u5236\u975e\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5458\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6d3b\u52a8\u4eba\u58eb\u548c\u516c\u5171\u5229\u76ca\u5021\u8bae\u8005\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f17\u591a\u590d\u6742\u548c\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6599\u7684\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u4e2d\u897f\u6c11\u95f4\u4ea4\u6d41\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u5e45\u5ea6\u90fd\u52a0\u4ee5\u9650\u5236\u3002\u5728\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u6211\u91c7\u7eb3\u4e86\u7531Steven Levitsky\u548cLucan A. Way\u6240\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u53bb\u63cf\u7ed8\u7531\u4e8e\u5b98\u65b9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u653f\u6743\u8eab\u5904\u5a01\u80c1\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u7126\u8651\u4e0e\u65e5\u4ff1\u589e\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u515a\u56fd\u7684\u56e0\u5e94\u63aa\u65bd\u3002Levitsky \u548cWay\u628a\u5f3a\u5236\u6027\u80fd\u529b\u51f8\u663e\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u590d\u5408\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u8be5\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u73b0\u4efb\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u5728\u906d\u9047\u5230\u5916\u90e8\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u538b\u529b\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u5b58\u6d3b\u7387\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5de9\u56fa\u548c\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4e0e\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u5728\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0a\u4e5f\u4e3a\u5c01\u95ed\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u521b\u89c1\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c31\u662f\u5c01\u95ed\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, \u201cThe Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism,\u201d Journal of Democracy, vol. 13 (April, 2002), pp. 51-65; Lucan A. Way, \u201cAuthoritarian State Building and the Sources of Regime Competitiveness in the Fourth Wave,\u201d World Politics, vol. 57, No. 2 (2005), pp. 231-61; Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, \u201cInternational Linkage and Democratization,\u201d Journal of Democracy, vol. 16, No. 3(2005), pp. 20-34; Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, Competitive Authoritarianism: The Emergence and Dynamics of Hybrid Regimes in the Post-Cold War Era (unpublished ms., 2005); Lucan A. Way and Steven Levitsky, \u201cThe Dynamics of Autocratic Coercion after the Cold War,\u201d Communist and Post-Communist Studies, vol. 39, No. 3 (2006), pp. 387-410; Lucan A. Way, \u201cThe Real Causes of The Color Revolutions,\u201d Journal of Democracy, vol. 19, No. 3 (July, 2008), pp. 55-69; Lucan A. Way, \u201cA Reply to My Critics,\u201d Journal of Democracy, vol. 20, No. 1 (2009), pp. 90-97.  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u6240\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u7684\u591a\u79cd\u6d88\u606f\u6765\u6e90\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u515a\u56fd\u673a\u5173\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u840e\u7f29 \u3001\u5b98\u50da\u673a\u5173\u5e72\u90e8\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\u5ec9\u6d01\u5ea6\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0b\u6ed1\u4e4b\u540e \uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u7740\u624b\u91c7\u53d6\u653f\u6743\u632f\u5174\u63aa\u65bd\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u53d1\u751f\u524d\u5c31\u5df2\u5f00\u59cb\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u3002\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u515a\u53d1\u52a8\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u786e\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u4efb\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u96c6\u4f53\u8b66\u89c9\uff0c\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u6539\u9769\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u5e76\u786e\u8ba4\u4e86\u5728\u5f3a\u5ea6\u548c\u5e7f\u5ea6\u4e0a\u63a8\u884c\u8fd9\u79cd\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3002\u515a\u56fd\u4f53\u5236\u5efa\u6784\u548c\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u8bbe\u9632\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u515a\u56fd\u7684\u5f3a\u5236\u6027\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86Levitsky\u548cWay\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u4f4e\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5f3a\u5236(low-intensity coercion)\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u540e\u679c\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u515a\u56fd\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e8e\u81ea\u7531\u6d3e\u548c\u6279\u5224\u6027\u5a92\u4f53\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6cd5\u5f8b\u884c\u52a8\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u516c\u6c11\u6743\u5229\u5021\u8bae\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u897f\u6c11\u95f4\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u6210\u4e86\u8fa9\u89e3\u5e76\u9010\u6b65\u5347\u9ad8\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u5927\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u6765\u6e90\u5f3a\u52a0\u9650\u5236\u7684\u501f\u53e3\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u4ece2004\u5e7412\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6a59\u8272\u9769\u547d\uff08Orange Revolution\uff09\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u9996\u90fd\u57fa\u8f85\uff08Kiev\uff09\u620f\u5267\u6027\u5730\u5168\u9762\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u96b6\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e2d\u5171\u667a\u5e93\u53ca\u56fd\u5bb6\u5a92\u4f53\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u6c11\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u8fd0\u52a8\u5728\u6b27\u4e9a\u5927\u9646\u4e2a\u522b\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u5bfb\u5e38\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u968f\u540e\u88ab\u5f52\u5165\u201c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u201d\uff08\u8303\u7574\uff09\u3002\u80e1\u9526\u6d9b\u6307\u793a\u4e2d\u5171\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784\u53ca\u667a\u5e93\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u524d\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u89c4\u653f\u6cbb\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u524d\u56e0\u540e\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u5206\u6790\u3002\u8c22\u6dd1\u4e3d\uff08Susan L. Shirk\uff09, China: Fragile Superpower (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007), p. 38.  \u968f\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\uff08Chinese Academy of Social Sciences\uff09\u53ca\u6570\u5bb6\u7701\u7ea7\u793e\u79d1\u9662\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5b98\u65b9\u667a\u5e93\uff0c\u627f\u62c5\u7740\u4e3a\u515a\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u4f9b\u54a8\u8be2\u53ca\u653f\u7b56\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u804c\u80fd\u2014\u2014\u4e8e2005\u5e74\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u5f71\u54cd\u56fd\u6d3e\u51fa\u6570\u4e2a\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8c03\u67e5\u56e2\uff0c\u63a2\u5bfb\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u7684\u8d77\u56e0\u3001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ca\u7ed3\u679c\u3002Yongding, \u201cChina\u2019s Color-Coded Crackdown,\u201d Yale Global, October 18, 2005, online at <\/FONT>http:\/\/yaleglobal.yale.edu\/content\/chinas-color-coded-crackdown<\/FONT><\/A>; Paul Mooney, \u201cHow to Deal with NGOs: Part I, China,\u201d Yale Global, August 1, 2006, at <\/FONT>http:\/\/yaleglobal.yale.edu\/content\/how-deal-ngos<\/FONT><\/A>– %E2%80%93-part-i-china; Jeanne L. Wilson, \u201cColor Revolutions: The View from Moscow and Beijing,\u201d Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, vol. 25, No. 2 (2009), p. 372.  \u516c\u5f00\u8d44\u6599\u8bc1\u5b9e\uff0c\u57282004\u81f32006\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u7684\u3001\u591a\u90e8\u95e8\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u81f3\u5c11\u4e3e\u529e\u4e867\u6b21\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u81f3\u5c11\u7f16\u8f91\u51fa\u7248\u4e863\u672c\u4e66\u7c4d\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b66\u672f\u671f\u520a\u5168\u6587\u6570\u636e\u5e93CNKI\u4e2d\uff0c\u5171\u68c0\u7d22\u51fa60\u7bc7\u76f4\u63a5\u8bba\u8ff0\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6587\u7ae0\u5747\u53d1\u8868\u57282005\u5e74\u81f32008\u5e74\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u6838\u5fc3\u5b66\u672f\u671f\u520a\u4e0a\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u5bf9\u8fd97\u6b21\u77e5\u540d\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8005\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ee5\u4e0b\u95ee\u9898\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u82e5\u5e72\u7ebf\u7d22\uff1a\u5373\u4e2d\u5171\u515a\u56fd\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u54ea\u4e9b\u90e8\u95e8\u5bf9\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\u8868\u793a\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u4f4d\u4e8e\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f20\u5a92\u5927\u5b66\u5f53\u4ee3\u56fd\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08The Research Center for Contemporary International Issues\uff09\u76f8\u7ee7\u4e8e2004\u5e7412\u6708\u5e95\u548c2005\u5e747\u6708\u4e3e\u529e\u4e86\u4e24\u6b21\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e7f\u64ad\u7535\u5f71\u7535\u89c6\u603b\u5c40\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u5171\u5ba3\u4f20\u90e8\u7684\u5bc6\u5207\u96b6\u5c5e\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5f53\u4ee3\u56fd\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4ee3\u8868\u7740\u4e2d\u5171\u5ba3\u4f20\u548c\u5ba1\u67e5\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u5e76\u4e3a\u5176\u670d\u52a1\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u90e8\u8d5e\u52a9\u8bbe\u7acb\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u667a\u5e93\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u4ee3\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08China Institute of Contemporary International Relations\uff09\u4e8e2005\u5e745\u6708\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e3e\u529e\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u5173\u4e8e\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u7684\u8bba\u575b\u3002\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u662f2006\u5e745\u6708\u5728\u6d59\u6c5f\u676d\u5dde\u53ec\u5f00\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u4ee5\u201c\u548c\u8c10\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0e\u56fd\u5185\u5b89\u5168\u201d\u4e3a\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\uff0c\u7531\u6d59\u6c5f\u7701\u516c\u5b89\u9ad8\u7b49\u4e13\u79d1\u5b66\u6821\uff08Zhejiang Provincial Public Security Academy\uff09\u53ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u516c\u5b89\u5927\u5b66\u4e3b\u529e\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5c55\u793a\u56fd\u5185\u5b89\u5168\u673a\u6784\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u53ca\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8a00\uff0c\u5176\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\u660e\u767d\u65e0\u8bef\u5730\u5c06\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7b79\u529e\u6b64\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u516c\u5b89\u90e8\u4e0b\u5c5e\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u536b\u5c40\uff08Bureau of Internal Security Protection\uff09\u5bf9\u6b64\u6b21\u6d59\u6c5f\u4f1a\u8bae\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8d5e\u52a9\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u534f\u4f1a\uff08China Research Association of Internal Security\uff09\u968f\u540e\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4e3a\u90a3\u4e9b\u5c06\u56fd\u5185\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u76f8\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9879\u76ee\u63d0\u4f9b\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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Institutional Orders,\u201d International Studies Quarterly, vol. 51, No. 4 (2007), pp. 763-64; Wesley W. Widmaier, \u201cConstructing Foreign Policy Crises: Interpretive Leadership in the Cold War and War on Terrorism,\u201d International Studies Quarterly, vol. 51, No. 4 (2007), p. 780. <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u5728\u5916\u90e8\u538b\u529b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u88ab\u6307\u79f0\u4e0e\u5176\u6b27\u6d32\u76df\u53cb\u53ca\u5176\u63a7\u5236\u4e0b\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e00\u9053\uff0c\u516c\u5f00\u6697\u793a\u9664\u975e\u4eb2\u5317\u7ea6\u7684\u9635\u8425\u88ab\u5ba3\u5e03\u83b7\u5f97\u9009\u4e3e\u80dc\u5229\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e0a\u5c06\u4e0d\u4e88\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u4e00\u5730\u533a\u7684\u672c\u571f\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u3002\u5218\u6d2a\u6f6e\uff1a\u300a\u8857\u5934\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u201c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u201c\u89e3\u6790\u300b\uff0cp. 17  \u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u8fc7\u540e\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u8fc7\u8d28\u7591\u9009\u4e3e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e0e\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u8b66\u544a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u8bb8\u4f7f\u7528\u6b66\u529b\u9547\u538b\u6c11\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u65bd\u52a0\u538b\u529b\u3002\u5321\u5c0f\u9633\u3001\u5218\u715c\uff1a\u300a\u201c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u201d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u5bf9\u7b56\u300b\uff0cpp. 24-26.<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u5728\u585e\u5c14\u7ef4\u4e9a\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5317\u7ea6\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u65e5\u5f53\u5929\u5728\u5176\u8fd1\u6d77\u4e3e\u884c\u8054\u5408\u519b\u4e8b\u6f14\u4e60\u6765\u5a01\u5413\u5f53\u6743\u7684\u7c73\u6d1b\u820d\u7ef4\u5947\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u5218\u6d2a\u6f6e\uff1a\u300a\u8857\u5934\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u201c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u201d\u89e3\u6790\u300b\uff0cp. 17; \u9a6c\u8d8a\u821f\uff1a\u300a\u7c73\u6d1b\u820d\u7ef4\u5947\u5728\u8857\u5934\u653f\u6cbb\u300b\uff0cp. 158  \u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u5f3a\u52a0\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u538b\u529b\u76f4\u63a5\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5f53\u6743\u7684\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u52a8\u6447\u4e0e\u65e0\u4f5c\u4e3a\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u4e86\u5f53\u6743\u6d3e\u5bf9\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6297\u8bae\u793a\u5a01\u7684\u9547\u538b\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u653f\u6743\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u4e13\u5bb6\u65ad\u8a00\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u53ea\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u63a9\u76d6\u5176\u4e0d\u53ef\u544a\u4eba\u4f01\u56fe\u7684\u70df\u5e55\u5f39\uff1a\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u6b27\u4e9a\u5404\u56fd\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u897f\u65b9\u5316\u6765\u786e\u4fdd\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c38\u8fdc\u7ef4\u6301\u9738\u4e3b\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u6f58\u5fd7\u534e\u3001\u77f3\u5c9a\uff1a\u300a\u5409\u5c14\u5409\u65af\u65af\u5766\uff1a\u201c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u201d\u7684\u5b17\u53d8\u300b\uff0c pp. 45-49  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5f53\u6743\u6d3e\u5b66\u8005\u547c\u5401\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5916\u56fd\u516c\u6c11\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u9762\u8c03\u67e5\u5e76\u5bf9\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u8fd0\u4f5c\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u547c\u5401\u653f\u5e9c\u91c7\u53d6\u6709\u529b\u63aa\u65bd\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5df2\u7ecf\u5177\u6709\u7834\u574f\u6027\u7684\u5916\u56fdNGO\u3002\u6f58\u82f1\u660e\u3001\u5f90\u7ea2\u6797\uff1a\u300a\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e0e\u72ec\u8054\u4f53\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u201c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u201d\u300b\uff0c p. 203  \u751a\u81f3\u8fd8\u6709\u4eb2\u653f\u6743\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u4e3b\u5f20\u5438\u53d6\u90a3\u4e9b\u6210\u529f\u963b\u6b62\u4e86\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u8513\u5ef6\u7684\u524d\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u5982\u963f\u585e\u62dc\u7586\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u4e4c\u5179\u522b\u514b\u65af\u5766\u3001\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4ee5\u53ca\u54c8\u8428\u514b\u65af\u5766\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5f53\u6743\u6d3e\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u5efa\u8bae\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u73b0\u4efb\u653f\u5e9c\u90fd\u5e94\u5f53\u91c7\u53d6\u5f3a\u786c\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u624b\u6bb5\u6765\u963b\u6b62\u897f\u65b9\u653f\u6cbb\u6027NGO\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0e\u6e17\u900f\u3002\u4e01\u5fd7\u6d9b\uff1a\u300a\u5b89\u96c6\u5ef6\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6765\u9f99\u53bb\u8109\u300b\uff0c\u5218\u660e\u4e3b\u7f16\uff1a\u300a\u8857\u5934\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u201c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u201d\u300b\uff0cpp. 217-23;\u8d75\u96ea\u6ce2 \uff1a\u300a\u54c8\u8428\u514b\u65af\u5766\u5bf9\u2018\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u2019\u8bf4\u2018\u4e0d\u2019\u300b\uff0c\u540c\u4e0a\uff0c\u300a\u8857\u5934\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u201c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u201d\u300bpp. 239-40;\u4e07\u6210\u624d\uff0c\u540c\u4e0a\uff0c\u300a\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u201d\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\\”\u300b pp. 253, 261-62  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u515a\u56fd\u53cd\u51fb<\/STRONG><\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u6211\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u7531Steven Levitsky\u548cLucan A. Way\u6240\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u53bb\u68c0\u89c6\u4e2d\u56fd\u515a\u56fd\u5728\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u4e4b\u540e\u6267\u884c\u7684\u653f\u6743\u7ef4\u7a33\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08competitive authoritarianism\uff09\u6240\u4f5c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u5bf9\u524d\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u524d\u72ec\u88c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u91cc\u6240\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5f80\u5f80\u65e2\u4e0d\u6301\u4e45\u4e5f\u5f97\u4e0d\u5230\u5de9\u56fa\u505a\u51fa\u89e3\u91ca\u3002Lucan A. Way, \u201cAuthoritarian State Building and the Sources of Regime Competitiveness in the Fourth Wave,\u201d pp. 232-23.  Levitsky\u548cWay\u628a\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u6743\u754c\u5b9a\u4e3a\uff1a<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u901a\u8fc7\u6e05\u695a\u663e\u793a\u4e24\u7ec4\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u76f8\u5bf9\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u4ef7\u503c\uff0cLevitsky \u548cWay\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u51b7\u6218\u540e\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u8986\u76d6\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u538b\u529b\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u9762\u5411\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u5219\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u5a01\u6743\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u65b9\u9762\u3002Levitsky and Way, \u201cThe Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism,\u201d pp. 52-54.   \u5bf9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u76ee\u7684\u6765\u8bb2\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u6700\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff1a\u653f\u6743\u80fd\u529b(regime capacity)\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u548c\u56fd\u5185\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u51dd\u805a\u529b(cohesion of internal security)\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u8861\u91cf\u4e86\u4efb\u4e00\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u5a01\u6743\u5f53\u653f\u8005\u7528\u6765\u632b\u8d25\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u538b\u529b\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u548c\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6027\u5b9e\u529b(organizational strength)\u3002Way and Levitsky, \u201cThe Dynamics of Autocratic Coercion after the Cold War,\u201d pp. 389-97.  \u653f\u6743\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u6307\u6d89\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u673a\u6784\u7684\u6709\u6548\u8986\u76d6\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6267\u653f\u515a\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u519b\u961f\u3001\u8b66\u5bdf\u548c\u51c6\u519b\u4e8b\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002\u5185\u90e8\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8d1f\u8d23\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4eba\u5458\u548c\u515a\u7684\u5e72\u90e8\u670d\u4ece\u4e8e\u73b0\u4efb\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u3002Levitsky and Way, \u201cCompetitive Authoritarianism,\u201d p. 49.  \u9ad8\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u6307\u6d89\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u201c\u5373\u4fbf\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e89\u8bae\u6216\u975e\u6cd5\u7684\u547d\u4ee4\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u62b1\u6709\u81ea\u4fe1\u2026\u2026\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8be5\u547d\u4ee4\u5c06\u5f97\u5230\u5168\u9762\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5b9e\u65bd\u3002\u8d1f\u8d23\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5b98\u5458\u5c06\u670d\u4ece\u884c\u653f\u547d\u4ee4\u53bb\u5b9e\u65bd\u9547\u538b\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u58eb\u5175\u3001\u8b66\u5bdf\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b98\u50da\u4e5f\u5c06\u6267\u884c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u547d\u4ee4\u3002\u201dIbid., p. 50.  Levitsky\u548cWay\u628a\u56fd\u5185\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u53d8\u91cf\u5408\u6210\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u51b7\u6218\u540e\u65f6\u4ee3\u91cc\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u6743\u7ed3\u679c\u3002Lucan A. Way, \u201cThe Real Causes of Color Revolutions,\u201d pp. 59-62.  \u4ed6\u4eec\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u538b\u529b\u865a\u5f31\u4ee5\u53ca\u56fd\u9645\u8054\u7cfb\u7a00\u758f\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u538b\u529b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5c06\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u89c6\u56fd\u5185\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u653f\u8005\u7684\u5a01\u6743\u80fd\u529b\uff09\u800c\u5b9a\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

Steven Levitsky\u548cLucan A. Way\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bae\u7a0b\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u56fd\u5185\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6027\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u662f\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u6848\u4f8b\u7279\u522b\u76f8\u5173\u7684\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\u897f\u65b9\u52bf\u529b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5317\u4eac\u53ea\u6709\u7740\u76f8\u5bf9\u4f4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b98\u50da\u673a\u6784\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u5230\u6700\u8fd1\u624d\u6709\u6240\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u4e0b\u6587\u5c06\u8981\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u515a\u56fd\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u653f\u6743-\u7ef4\u7a33\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u56fd\u5185\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff1a\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u6743\u53d1\u52a8\u4e86\u515a\u5185\u8fd0\u52a8\u5e76\u5b9e\u884c\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u58f0\u79f0\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u8981\u5de9\u56fa\u548c\u6269\u5927\u5176\u7ec4\u7ec7\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u52a0\u5f3a\u5b89\u5168\u673a\u6784\u548c\u515a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5185\u7684\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u6c34\u51c6\u3002\u6240\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7ed3\u679c\u4fbf\u662fLevitsky\u548cWay\u754c\u5b9a\u7684\u201c\u4f4e\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5f3a\u5236\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u5404\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u6446\u8131\u515a\u7684\u675f\u7f1a\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u884c\u52a8\u4e3b\u4e49\u8fdb\u884c\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u6b8b\u9177\u4f46\u5374\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u6765\u5de9\u56fa\u653f\u6743\u6240\u754c\u5b9a\u7684\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u6536\u7d27\u63a7\u5236\uff1a\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u4e4b\u524d\u6240\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u793e\u4f1a-\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u578b<\/STRONG><\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u968f\u7740\u80e1\u9526\u6d9b\u57282002\u5e7411\u6708\u786e\u4fdd\u4e86\u4e2d\u5171\u603b\u4e66\u8bb0\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u5e76\u57282003\u5e743\u6708\u88ab\u4efb\u547d\u4e3a\u4e2d\u534e\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c2002-2003\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u6743\u529b\u8fc7\u6e21\u8fce\u6765\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u3002\u80e1\u9526\u6d9b\u7ee7\u627f\u7684\u6c5f\u6cfd\u6c11\u6240\u7559\u4e0b\u7684\u9057\u4ea7\u662f\u559c\u5fe7\u53c2\u534a\u7684\uff1a\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u7740\u9ad8\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e0d\u65ad\u62c9\u5927\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u548c\u7316\u7357\u7684\u8150\u8d25\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u65e5\u76ca\u5347\u9ad8\u7684\u90fd\u5e02\u5931\u4e1a\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u89c1Merle Goldman, From Comrade to Citizen: Struggle for Political Rights in China (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2005), \u7b2c\u516b\u7ae0\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u5b98\u5458\u8150\u8d25\uff0c\u89c1Melanie Manion, Corruption by Design: Building Clean Government in Mainland China and Hong Kong (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2004), \u7b2c\u4e09-\u56db\u7ae0\u3002    \u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u52a0\u5f3a\u4f46\u884c\u653f\u4e0a\u788e\u7247\u5316\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e13\u4e1a\u4e0a\u6b20\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u653f\u6743\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u613f\u53bb\u4e3a\u5f31\u52bf\u52b3\u5de5\u53ca\u519c\u6c11\u63d0\u4f9b\u5145\u8db3\u7684\u516c\u5171\u54c1\uff08\u53f8\u6cd5\u4fdd\u62a4\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\uff09\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u788e\u7247\u5316\u7684\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u5728\u5404\u4e2a\u7ba1\u7406\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u8bf7\u9605\u8bfb\u674e\u4f83\u5982\uff08Kenneth Lieberthal\uff09\u7684\u201cIntroduction: The \u2018Fragmented Authoritarianism\u2019 Models and its Limitations,\u201d \u6536\u5f55\u5728Kenneth Lieberthal and David Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics and Decision Making in Post-Mao China, (Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 1992); \u9646\u601d\u793c\uff08Stanley Lubman\uff09\uff0cBird in a Cage: Legal Reform in China after Mao (Stanford, Calif..: Stanford University Press, 1999); \u88f4\u654f\u6b23\uff0cChina\u2019s Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2006),\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u548c\u7b2c\u56db\u7ae0\uff1b\u82cf\u9edb\u745e(Dorothy J. Solinger), \u201cPath Dependency Reexamined: Chinese Welfare Policy in the Transition to Unemployment,\u201d Comparative Politics, vol. 30, No. 1 (2005), pp. 83-96.   <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5b98\u50da\u4f53\u5236\u5728\u9002\u5e94\u548c\u89c4\u8303\u5e02\u573a\u673a\u5236\u4e0a\u7684\u65e0\u80fd\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u4f34\u968f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u800c\u6765\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u7ea0\u7eb7\u3001\u8bc9\u8bbc\u3001\u6297\u8bae\u548c\u9a9a\u4e71\u7684\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u89c1\u6b27\u535a\u6587(Kevin O\u2019Brien)\u548c\u674e\u8fde\u6c5f\uff0cRightful Resistance in Rural China (Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press, 2006), and\u82cf\u9edb\u745e\uff08Dorothy J. Solinger\uff09, Contesting Citizenship in Urban China, pp. 61-71.   \u5728\u6574\u4e2a20\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u52b3\u5de5\u6848\u4ef6\u4e2d\u7684\u52b3\u8d44\u7ea0\u7eb7\u548c\u4e89\u8bae\u4e5f\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6743\u5229\u610f\u8bc6\u7684\u65e5\u76ca\u63d0\u5347 \u548c\u6ede\u540e\u7684\u53f8\u6cd5\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e0d\u5339\u914d\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u672a\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u4e89\u7aef\u548c\u4e0d\u6ee1\u516c\u6c11\u5728\u6570\u91cf\u4e0a\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e3a\u5927\u4f17\u4e0d\u6ee1\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u4e71\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u7247\u6c83\u571f \u3002Jae Ho Chung, \u201cAssessing the Odds Against the Mandate of Heaven: Do the Numbers (on Instability) Really Matter?,\u201d in Chung, ed., Charting China\u2019s Future: Political, Social, and International Dimensions (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 2006), pp. 107-28; Albert Keidel, China\u2019s Social Unrest: The Story Behind the Stories (New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006).  \u7ed3\u679c\u662f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u7ea0\u7eb7\u548c\u8bc9\u8bbc\u8d8a\u79ef\u8d8a\u591a \uff0c\u6c11\u95f4\u4e0a\u8bbf\u4ee5\u53ca\u53cd\u6297\u653f\u5e9c\u5f3a\u5236\u6027\uff08\u5e76\u4e14\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u6ee5\u6743\u7684\uff09\u884c\u4e3a\u2014\u2014\u8bf8\u5982\u57ce\u5e02\u5730\u533a\u7684\u623f\u5c4b\u62c6\u8fc1\u6216\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5f81\u7a0e\u2014\u2014\u7684\u5927\u4f17\u6297\u4e89\u4e5f\u65e5\u76ca\u98de\u6da8<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u3002\u767d\u601d\u9f0e\uff08Thomas P. Bernstein\uff09\u548c\u5415\u6653\u6ce2\uff0cTaxation without Representation in Contemporary Rural China (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003);\u8521\u6c38\u987a\uff0c\u201cCivil Resistance and Rule of Law in China: the Defense of Homeowners\u2019 Rights,\u201d  \u6536\u5f55\u5728\u88f4\u5b9c\u7406\uff08Elizabeth J. Perry\uff09 and Merle Goldman\u5408\u7f16\u7684Grassroots Political Reform in Contemporary China (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2007), pp. 174-95.  \u4e0d\u7ba1\u5de5\u4e1a\u2014\u57ce\u5e02\u90e8\u95e8\u8fd8\u662f\u519c\u4e1a\u2014\u519c\u6751\u90e8\u95e8\u90fd\u89c1\u8bc1\u4e86\u88ab\u4e2d\u56fd\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u7fa4\u4f53\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\u201d\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u3002\u674e\u9759\u541b\uff08Ching Kwan Lee\uff09\uff1a\u201cIs Labor a Political Force in China?,\u201d  \u6536\u5f55\u5728\u88f4\u5b9c\u7406\u548cGoldman\u5408\u7f16\u7684Grassroots Political Reform in Contemporary China, pp. 228-52; \u8c2d\u7766\u745e\uff08Murray Scott Tanner\uff09\uff1a \u201cChina Rethinks Unrest,\u201d Washington Quarterly, vol. 27, No. 3 (2004), pp. 137-56; \u5468\u5fe0\u4f1f\u7f16\u8457\u300a\u7fa4\u4f53\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53ca\u5904\u7f6e\u300b\uff08\u5357\u660c\uff1a\u6c5f\u897f\u4eba\u6c11\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c2006\uff09  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u9762\u5bf9\u52a8\u8361\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u85c9\u7531\u5f3a\u8c03\u4f9d\u6cd5\u884c\u653f\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3001\u63d0\u5347\u884c\u653f\u7ba1\u7406\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\u3001\u5904\u7406\u5e72\u90e8\u8150\u8d25\u548c\u89e3\u51b3\u5730\u7406\u4e0a\u4e0d\u540c\u533a\u57df\u4e4b\u95f4\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u540c\u793e\u4f1a\u9636\u5c42\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\uff0c\u80e1\u9526\u6d9b\u653f\u5e9c\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u6539\u9769\u517c\u4eb2\u6c11\u7684\u5f62\u8c61\u3002\u6797\u548c\u7acb\uff1aChinese Politics in the Hu Jintao Era (Armonk, N.Y.: M. E. Sharpe, 2006), \u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0     2003\u5e74\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u77e5\u540d\u5ea6\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u2014\u2014SARS\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u548c\u4e00\u540d\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u6b7b\u4e8e\u5e7f\u5dde\u7684\u8b66\u5bdf\u62d8\u7559\u4e2d\u5fc3\u2014\u2014\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u81ea\u7531\u6d3e\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u5728\u5168\u56fd\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u5bf9\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u6743\u7684\u4e0d\u900f\u660e\u3001\u4e0d\u79f0\u804c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6ee5\u7528\u804c\u6743\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u3002\u540c\u4e0a\uff0c\u7b2c\u56db\u7ae0    \u867d\u7136\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5bf9\u76f8\u5173\u8d23\u4efb\u5b98\u5458\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u964d\u804c\uff08\u751a\u81f3\u5b9a\u7f6a\uff09\u5e76\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u65b0\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u540c\u65f6\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u591a\u6837\u5316\u5411\u7fa4\u4f17\u53d1\u52a8\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5371\u9669\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u6b63\u662f\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u5fae\u5999\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u653f\u6cbb\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u8822\u8822\u6b32\u52a8\u7684\u53f8\u6cd5\u884c\u52a8\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u683c\u9c81\u5409\u4e9a\u7684\u73ab\u7470\u9769\u547d\u8fdb\u5165\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u548c\u5f53\u6743\u6d3e\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u89c6\u91ce\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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Levitsky\u548cWay\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5a01\u6743\u5f53\u653f\u8005\u5728\u5176\u7edf\u6cbb\u67b6\u6784\u5185\u900f\u8fc7\u7269\u8d28\u7684\u3001\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\uff08\u5bb6\u5ead\u6216\u65cf\u7fa4\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u89c2\u5ff5\u6027\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u6765\u6539\u5584\u5b98\u50da\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u548c\u7eaa\u5f8b\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u89c1\u89e3\u3002\u57282004\u5e749\u6708\u53ec\u5f00\u7684\u4e2d\u5171\u5341\u516d\u5c4a\u56db\u4e2d\u5168\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u80e1\u9526\u6d9b\u8981\u6c42\u5e7f\u5927\u515a\u5458\u52a0\u5f3a\u515a\u7684\u6c38\u4e45\u6267\u653f\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u65b0\u534e\u901a\u8baf\u793e\uff0c2004-9-19\uff0c<\/FONT>http:\/\/news.xinhuanet.com\/newscenter\/2004<\/FONT><\/A>–
09\/19\/content_1995366.htm  \u5168\u4f1a\u516c\u62a5\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u515a\u7684\u6267\u653f\u80fd\u529b\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u575a\u6301\u9a6c\u514b\u601d\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e3a\u6307\u5bfc\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e76\u8a93\u8a00\u8981\u201c\u575a\u51b3\u628a\u63e1\u8206\u8bba\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u52a0\u5f3a\u548c\u6539\u8fdb\u601d\u60f3\u653f\u6cbb\u5de5\u4f5c\u201d\u3002\u540c\u4e0a\uff0c\u201c\u515a\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\u8a93\u8a00\u575a\u6301\u9a6c\u514b\u601d\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u4fdd\u7559\u5bf9\u5a92\u4f53\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u201d \u65b0\u534e\u901a\u8baf\u793e\uff0cLexisNexis Academic,2004\u5e749\u670826\u65e5\u3002
  \u7ee7\u5168\u4f1a\u516c\u62a5\u7684\u6307\u793a\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u6cbb\u5c40\u5c55\u5f00\u4e86\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u5168\u515a\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u4ee5\u201c\u4fdd\u6301\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5458\u5148\u8fdb\u6027\u201d\u3002\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u53d1\u52a8\u4e86\u65b0\u8fdb\u884c\u6559\u80b2\u8fd0\u52a8\u201d \u65b0\u534e\u901a\u8baf\u793e\uff0cLexisNexis Academic, 2004\u5e7410\u670822\u65e5\uff1b \u201c\u4e09\u5341\u4e07\u515a\u5458\u601d\u60f3\u5927\u8c03\u67e5\u9707\u52a8\u4e2d\u592e\u201d  \u300a\u5639\u671b\u4e1c\u65b9\u5468\u520a\u300b2004\u5e7411\u670823\u65e5\u3002  \u4e2d\u5171\u4e2d\u592e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u90e82004\u5e7410\u67081\u65e5\u8bbe\u7acb\u4e86\u5148\u8fdb\u6027\u6559\u80b2\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\uff0c\u4ee5\u534f\u8c03\u548c\u76d1\u7763\u968f\u540e\u5f00\u5c55\u7684\u5168\u56fd\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4fdd\u5148\u8fd0\u52a8\u6e90\u81ea2000\u5e74\u9488\u5bf9\u5168\u56fd30\u4e07\u540d\u5e72\u90e8\u653f\u6cbb\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u8c03\u67e5\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u66b4\u9732\u51fa\u4e86\u515a\u8ba9\u4eba\u7126\u8651\u7684\u8870\u9000\u8ff9\u8c61\uff1a\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u7269\u8d28\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u865a\u65e0\u3001\u515a\u7eaa\u6da3\u6563\u3001\u7ec4\u7ec7\u9000\u5316\u4ee5\u53ca\u515a\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u6108\u52a0\u62c9\u5927\u7684\u9694\u9602\u30022000\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u9ad8\u5c42\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u7ec4\u90e8\u5728\u515a\u5185\u53d1\u8d77\u4e86\u5b66\u4e60\u201c\u4e09\u4e2a\u4ee3\u8868\u201d\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u8fd0\u52a8\u30022003\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u4e2d\u7ec4\u90e8\u57287\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u90e8\u59d4\u548c12\u4e2a\u7701\u7ea7\u884c\u653f\u533a\u5f00\u5c55\u4fdd\u5148\u8fd0\u52a8\u8bd5\u70b9\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u8bd5\u70b9\u6d89\u53ca52000\u4e2a\u515a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c103\u4e07\u5e72\u90e8\uff0c\u4e3a\u540e\u6765\u7684\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u8fd0\u52a8\u6253\u4e0b\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u89c1\u300a\u4fdd\u6301\u515a\u5458\u5148\u8fdb\u6027\u6559\u80b2\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u6765\u9f99\u53bb\u8109\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u4e8e\u300a\u4fe1\u606f\u5bfc\u520a\u300b\uff0c2005-1-11\uff0c<\/FONT>www.china.com.cn\/chinese\/zhuanti\/xjxjy\/753458.htm<\/FONT><\/A>\u3002  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u5148\u8fdb\u6027\u8fd0\u52a8\u6301\u7eed\u4e8618\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u4ece2005\u5e741\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u52302006\u5e746\u6708\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u8be5\u8fd0\u52a8\u8981\u6c42\u5168\u4f53\u515a\u5458\u8981\u719f\u6089\u9a6c\u514b\u601d\u5217\u5b81\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u6bdb\u6cfd\u4e1c\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u9093\u5c0f\u5e73\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u524d\u4efb\u603b\u4e66\u8bb0\u6c5f\u6cfd\u6c11\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u4e09\u4e2a\u4ee3\u8868\u201d\u601d\u60f3\u3002\u6c5f\u6cfd\u6c11\u201c\u4e09\u4e2a\u4ee3\u8868\u201d\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u6307\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ee7\u7eed\u6267\u653f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5fc5\u987b\u59cb\u7ec8\u4ee3\u8868\u4e2d\u56fd\u5148\u8fdb\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5148\u8fdb\u6587\u5316\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u5e7f\u5927\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u6839\u672c\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u6c5f\u6cfd\u6c11\u662f\u57282000\u5e745\u6708\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u4e09\u4e2a\u4ee3\u8868\u201d\u7684\u3002\u57282002\u5e74\u7684\u4e2d\u5171\u5341\u516d\u5927\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u601d\u60f3\u88ab\u5199\u5165\u4e86\u515a\u7ae0\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u6743\u5a01\u653f\u6cbb\u8def\u7ebf\u3002\u89c1\u300a\u201c\u4e09\u4e2a\u4ee3\u8868\u201d\u91cd\u8981\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u300b\uff0c\u65b0\u534e\u793e\uff0c2003-7-1\uff0c<\/FONT>www.southcn.com\/news\/gdnews\/xcrc\/xgc\/xxzl\/200307010864.htm<\/FONT><\/A>\u3002  \u5728\u52a0\u5f3a\u515a\u7684\u6267\u653f\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u76ee\u6807\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u6709\u56db\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u515a\u5458\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u7d20\u8d28\u3001\u6062\u590d\u515a\u7684\u57fa\u5c42\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u7fa4\u4f17\u3001\u4fc3\u8fdb\u653f\u5e9c\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u89c1\u300a\u4e2d\u5171\u4e2d\u592e\u5173\u4e8e\u5728\u5168\u515a\u5f00\u5c55\u4ee5\u5b9e\u8df5\u201c\u4e09\u4e2a\u4ee3\u8868\u201d\u91cd\u8981\u601d\u60f3\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u4fdd\u6301\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5458\u5148\u8fdb\u6027\u6559\u80b2\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u300b\uff0c \u65b0\u534e\u793e\uff0c2004-11-7\uff0c<\/FONT>www.china.com.cn\/chinese\/PI-c\/751762.htm<\/FONT><\/A>\u3002  \u8be5\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u7b79\u5907\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u4e0e\u683c\u9c81\u5409\u4e9a\u7684\u73ab\u7470\u9769\u547d\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u6a59\u8272\u9769\u547d\u91cd\u53e0\uff0c\u800c\u5b83\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5219\u6b63\u503c\u5409\u5c14\u5409\u65af\u65af\u5766\u90c1\u91d1\u9999\u9769\u547d\u3002\u867d\u7136\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\u662f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u51b3\u5b9a\u5728\u5168\u56fd\u8303\u56f4\u5f00\u5c55\u5148\u8fdb\u6027\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e4b\u540e\u624d\u7206\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5404\u79cd\u6d88\u606f\u6765\u6e90\u5747\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u524d\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u6b27\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u89c4\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u53d8\u8fc1\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5ba3\u4f20\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u5f3a\u5316\u548c\u4e25\u5389\u5b9e\u65bd\u3002Li Fusheng\uff1a\u82cf\u4e1c\u5267\u53d8\u548c\u201c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u201d  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u9664\u4e86\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u8bbe\u9632\u52a8\u4f5c\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u515a\u7684\u5ba3\u4f20\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fd8\u5229\u7528\u5148\u8fdb\u6027\u8fd0\u52a8\u53bb\u6c61\u8511\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u8ffd\u6c42\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u518d\u6b21\u91cd\u7533\u897f\u65b9\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u56fd\u60c5\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u9192\u5e72\u90e8\uff1a\u67d0\u4e9b\u897f\u65b9\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e72\u9884\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u6269\u5f20\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u503e\u5411\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u2014\u2014\u201c\u5984\u56fe\u201d \u5c06\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u79fb\u690d\u5230\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u6797\u548c\u7acb(Willy Wo-Lap Lam)\uff1aChinese Politics in the Hu Jintao Era, pp. 34-42, 108-27\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u4e2d\u592e\u515a\u6821\u5e38\u52a1\u526f\u6821\u957f\u3001\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u7406\u8bba\u5bb6\u865e\u4e91\u8000\u6307\u8d23\u4ed6\u79f0\u4e3a\u7684\u5e03\u4ec0\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5355\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u6269\u5f20\u4e3b\u4e49\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u91cc\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u5e72\u548c\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u611f\u3002\u865e\u4e91\u8000 \u201c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u52a0\u5f3a\u515a\u7684\u6267\u653f\u80fd\u529b\u5efa\u8bbe\uff1f\u201d \u534a\u6708\u8c08\uff0c2004\u5e749\u6708  <\/FONT>www.southcn.com\/nflr\/llzhuanti\/zznl\/zhizzl\/200409270425.htm<\/FONT><\/A>   \u6b63\u5982\u80e1\u9526\u6d9b\u516c\u5f00\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u201c\u5386\u53f2\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7167\u642c\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u662f\u4e00\u6761\u8d70\u4e0d\u901a\u7684\u6b7b\u8def\uff0c\u4f1a\u628a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e26\u5f80\u4e00\u6761\u2018\u6b7b\u80e1\u540c\u2019\u201d\u3002\u201cHu Warns against Aping Western Politics,\u201d Straits Times (Singapore), LexisNexis Academic,September 24, 2004.    \u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u6cbb\u5c40\u5e38\u59d4\u4ee5\u7f1c\u5bc6\u548c\u575a\u51b3\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u53bb\u6267\u884c\u5148\u8fdb\u6027\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u573a\u8fd0\u52a8\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u50cf\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u8fd0\u52a8\u90a3\u6837\u5f88\u5feb\u6ca6\u4e3a\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e14\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6301\u4e45\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u201c\u4fdd\u5148\u8fd0\u52a8\u201d\u4ece\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u5728\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u548c\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u88ab\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e86\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u5c06\u8fd9\u573a\u8fd0\u52a8\u5f53\u4f5c\u786e\u4fdd\u515a\u7ee7\u7eed\u6267\u653f\u4f1f\u5927\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u6700\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u6765\u52a0\u4ee5\u6267\u884c\u3002\u5728\u201c\u4fdd\u5148\u8fd0\u52a8\u201d\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u91cc\uff0c\u515a\u5458\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u6bcf\u5468\u90fd\u53c2\u52a0\u5f3a\u5236\u6027\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u73ed\uff0c\u719f\u6089\u9ad8\u5c42\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u4e13\u5bb6\u7cbe\u5fc3\u6311\u9009\u7684\u5ba3\u4f20\u6750\u6599\uff0c\u5e76\u8981\u6210\u5458\u53cd\u6620\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u6210\u679c\u548c\u5de5\u4f5c\u8d28\u91cf\u3002\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\uff08David Shambaugh\uff09 China\u2019s Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation (Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2008), pp. 129-31.   \u5c24\u5176\u662f\uff0c\u201c\u4fdd\u5148\u8fd0\u52a8\u201d\u8fd8\u575a\u51b3\u5730\u5728\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u673a\u6784\u548c\u5a92\u4f53\u4ece\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u5f53\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u3002 \u7ecf\u5e38\u542c\u5230\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u6559\u6388\u62b1\u6028\u4ed6\u4eec\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u53c2\u52a0\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5b66\u4e60\u4f1a\u8bae\u5e76\u4eb2\u7b14\u64b0\u5199\u81ea\u6211\u6279\u8bc4\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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 <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u88681 \u7528\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u5b89\u5168\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5e74\u5ea6\u5f00\u652f\u53ca\u5176\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff08\u5355\u4f4d\uff1a\u4ebf\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\uff09<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u5e74\u5ea6 \u653f\u5e9c\u603b\u4f53\u5f00\u652f(OG) \u56fd\u5185\u5b89\u5168\u5f00\u652f(IS) \u516c\u68c0\u6cd5\u5f00\u652f(PPJ) \u6b66\u8b66\u5f00\u652f(AP)
 
2002 18903.64 1348.98 1101.57 247.41
 
2003 21715.25(14.87%) 1565.54(16.05%) 1301.33(18.13%) 264.21(6.79%)
 
2004 26396.47(21.56%) 1835.15(17.22%) 1548.06(18.96%) 287.09(8.66%)
 
2005 33930.28(28.54%) 2179.86(18.78%) 1852.89(19.69%) 326.87(13.86%)
 
2006 40422.73(19.13%) 2562.26(17.54%) 2174.23(17.34%) 388.03(18.71%)
 
2007 49781.35(23.15%) 3486.16(36.06%) 2900.99(60.34%) 585.17(50.81%)
 
\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7edf\u8ba1\u5e74\u9274\uff08\u5317\u4eac\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\uff0c1994-2008\uff09\uff0c<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/statisticaldata\/yearlydata\/<\/FONT><\/A>#.<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u9664\u4e86\u5916\u90e8\u5f3a\u52a0\u7684\u7eaa\u5f8b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u6743\u8fd8\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u8bb0\u8005\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u5ba1\u67e5\u548c\u81ea\u613f\u6027\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u30022006\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u534a\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\u4e2d\u534e\u5168\u56fd\u65b0\u95fb\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u534f\u4f1a(All China Journalists Association)\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u5ba3\u5e03\u8bb0\u8005\u8981\u62d2\u7edd\u897f\u65b9\uff08\u4ea6\u5373\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\uff09\u8d44\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u5e76\u91cd\u7533\u4e86\u5bf9\u56fd\u5bb6\u8bb8\u53ef\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u5fe0\u8bda\u3002\u540c\u4e0a\uff0cp. 33  \u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f53\u65f6\u6b63\u5728\u5f3a\u5316\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u300214\u5bb6\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u95e8\u6237\u7f51\u7ad9 \u5ba3\u5e03\u4ed6\u4eec\u8d44\u6e90\u4e0e\u653f\u5e9c\u5408\u4f5c\u53bb\u8fc7\u6ee4\u6389\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u8981\u4f20\u64ad\u56fd\u5bb6\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8bdd\u8bed\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5ba3\u5e03\u8981\u4e0e\u653f\u5e9c\u8fdb\u884c\u81ea\u613f\u6027\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u88ab\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u4f01\u4e1a\u6240\u4eff\u6548\u3002\u540c\u4e0a\uff0cp. 35  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u76f4\u52302005\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u90fd\u662f\u4ee5\u5bbd\u677e\u548c\u533a\u57df\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u5b9e\u65bd\u8fd9\u4e9b\u767b\u8bb0\u3002\u5236\u5ea6\u969c\u788d\u5bfc\u81f4\u5927\u91cf\u79c1\u4eba\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8981\u4e48\u767b\u8bb0\u4e3a\u975e\u8425\u5229\u6027\uff08\u56e0\u6b64\u7eb3\u7a0e\uff09\u5b9e\u4f53\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u5c31\u4fdd\u6301\u672a\u7ecf\u6ce8\u518c\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff08\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u975e\u6cd5\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff09\u3002Jeanne L. Wilson, \u201cColor Revolutions: The View from Moscow and Beijing,\u201d pp. 374-75; Liu, \u201cNGOs in China,\u201d pp. 92-3.  \u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5e74\u68c0\u548c\u968f\u673a\u5ba1\u8ba1\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u6cd5\u89c4\u89c4\u5b9a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u672a\u80fd\u59cb\u7ec8\u5982\u4e00\u5730\u8d2f\u5f7b\u6267\u884c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u6001\u52bf\u4e0a\u6536\u96c6\u5230\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u8d44\u6599\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7531\u4e8e\u56db\u5206\u4e94\u88c2\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u65b9\u5f0f\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\uff08\u5bf9NGO\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff09\u7684\u65e0\u610f\u5ffd\u89c6\u57282005\u5e74\u521d\u671f\u4ee5\u540e\u906d\u9047\u4e86\uff08\u5b98\u65b9\uff09\u65e5\u76ca\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u8b66\u89c9\u3002\u5177\u6709\u8bbd\u523a\u610f\u5473\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6267\u6cd5\u4e0d\u4e25\u4e3a\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u6210\u957f\u4e0e\u6269\u5c55\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5bf9\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u5598\u606f\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u57ce\u5e02\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d\u3002\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u77e5\u8bc6\u5206\u5b50\u3001\u6124\u9752\u3001\u7ef4\u6743\u5f8b\u5e08\u548c\u516c\u5171\u5229\u76ca\u5021\u5bfc\u8005\u719f\u7ec3\u5730\u5229\u7528\u5404\u79cd\u901a\u8baf\u624b\u6bb5\uff08\u5982\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u548c\u624b\u673a\uff09\u4f20\u64ad\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u65e5\u7a0b\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u6709\u516c\u76ca\u5fc3\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u4eec\u52a8\u5458\u6210\u4e3a\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u96c6\u56e2\u3002  \u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u671f\u95f4\u5730\u65b9\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53ca\u5176\u897f\u65b9\u8d5e\u52a9\u8005\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5728\u5851\u9020\u516c\u4f17\u8206\u8bba\u8fd8\u662f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6297\u4e89\u6027\u793a\u5a01\u65b9\u9762\u6240\u663e\u793a\u7684\u5f3a\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u51b3\u5fc3\u52a0\u5f3a\u5176\u5bf9\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u515a\u6240\u5f3a\u52a0\u7684\u9547\u538b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e8e\u653f\u6cbb\u5f02\u8bae\u4eba\u58eb\u3001\u516c\u6c11\u6743\u5229\u6d3b\u52a8\u4eba\u58eb\u3001\u72ec\u7acb\u5f8b\u5e08\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b97\u6559\u4fee\u884c\u8005\u7684\u9a9a\u6270\u548c\u5a01\u80c1\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u8fd8\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u72af\u7f6a\u902e\u6355\u548c\u8d77\u8bc9\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5211\u6cd5\u91cc\u88ab\u754c\u5b9a\u4e3a\u5371\u5bb3\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u7f6a\uff08ESS\uff09\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7f6a\u884c\u5305\u62ec\u98a0\u8986\u653f\u6743\uff0c\u717d\u52a8\u98a0\u8986\u653f\u6743\uff0c\u5206\u88c2\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6cc4\u9732\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u5bc6\u3002\u636e\u5b98\u65b9\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c2006\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u902e\u6355\u4e86604\u540d\u5371\u5bb3\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u72af\u7f6a\u5acc\u7591\u4eba\uff0c\u662f2005\u5e74\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u56e0\u6d89\u5acc\u5371\u5bb3\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u7f6a\u800c\u906d\u902e\u6355\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u57282007\u5e74\uff08742\u4eba\uff09\u76f8\u6bd4\u524d\u5e74\u589e\u52a0\u4e8623%\u3002Dui Hua Foundation, \u201cMore Official Statistics Point to Increasing Crackdown on Political Dissent in China,\u201d December 3, 2007, at <\/FONT>www.duihua.org\/2007\/12\/more-official-statistics-point-to.html<\/FONT><\/A>.  \u4ece\u5b98\u65b9\u5bf9\u5371\u5bb3\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u7f6a\u8d77\u8bc9\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u51e0\u4e4e\u76f8\u540c\u7684\uff08\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40 \uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7edf\u8ba1\u5e74\u9274\uff08\u5317\u4eac\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\uff0c1994-2008\uff09<\/FONT>www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/statisticaldata\/yearlydata\/<\/FONT><\/A>#  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u4f4d\u4e8e\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u7684\u5bf9\u8bdd\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u4e2a\u4eba\u56e0\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u539f\u56e0\u800c\u906d\u5230\u62d8\u7559\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fdc\u6bd4\u6bcf\u5e74\u5b98\u65b9\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cc\u6240\u663e\u793a\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u6765\u5f97\u5927\u2026\u2026\u8fd1\u671f\u6240\u663e\u793a\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u5229\u7528\u975e\u5371\u5bb3\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u7f6a\u6307\u63a7\uff0c\u8bf8\u5982\u975e\u6cd5\u5546\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u6216\u8bc8\u9a97\u53bb\u660e\u663e\u9488\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6d3b\u52a8\u800c\u60e9\u7f5a\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u90fd\u5728\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u201dDui Hua Foundation, \u201cMore Official Statistics.\u201d  \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u201c\u5982\u679c\u5305\u62ec\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3b\u52a8\u800c\u906d\u62d8\u7559\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u5185\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u5982\u53c2\u4e0e\u88ab\u7981\u6b62\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6216\u53cd\u8150\u8d25\u7684\u2018\u7fa4\u4f53\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\u2019\uff0c\u5f81\u5730\uff0c\u73af\u5883\u7834\u574f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u88ab\u76d1\u7981\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u4e5f\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u4e86\u6570\u5343\u3002\u201dJoshua Rosenzweig, \u201cIncreased Rate of Political Arrests in China is Troubling,\u201d JURIST, November 30, 2007, <\/FONT>http:\/\/jurist.law.pitt.edu\/hotline\/2007\/11\/increased-rate-of-political-arrests-in.php\/<\/FONT><\/A>.  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u5ba1\u67e5\u4e2d\u897f\u6c11\u95f4\u8054\u7cfb<\/STRONG><\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u9664\u4e86\u5bf9\u65b0\u95fb\u754c\u3001\u5a92\u4f53\u3001\u516c\u5171\u5229\u76ca\u5021\u8bae\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u6cbb\u6d3b\u52a8\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e86\u9ad8\u538b\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u6743\u8fd8\u52a0\u7d27\u9a9a\u6270\u548c\u5a01\u80c1\u672a\u7ecf\u6ce8\u518c\u7684\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002Yongding, \u201cChina\u2019s Color-Coded Crackdown.\u201d  \u5c24\u5176\u662f\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u5e9c\u6025\u7740\u60f3\u8981\u5f04\u6e05\u695a\u897f\u65b9\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u548c\u8bae\u7a0b\u5b89\u6392\uff1b\u884c\u653f\u5ba1\u67e5\u548c\u6ce8\u518c\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5730\u65b9\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u4e5f\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u897f\u65b9\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u81ea2006\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u4f4d\u4e8e\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u7684\u4e9a\u6d32\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u5df2\u7ecf\u7533\u8bf7\u4e86\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u6210\u7acb\u4e00\u5bb6\u79c1\u4eba\u5916\u56fd\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u7684\u8bb8\u53ef\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u52302007\u5e7410\u6708\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u653f\u90e8\u8fd8\u6ca1\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8(MOFA)\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u8bbe\u5de5\u4f5c\u7ec4\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53f8\u7684\u7f16\u5236\u5e95\u4e0b\uff0c\u53bb\u8c03\u67e5\u5916\u56fd\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002Paul Mooney, \u201cHow to Deal with NGOs.\u201d  \u516c\u5b89\u548c\u56fd\u5b89\u5b98\u5458\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0d\u7ecf\u4e8b\u5148\u63d0\u9192\u4fbf\u8bbf\u95ee\u897f\u65b9\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8d1f\u8d23\u5b89\u5168\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u5b98\u5458\u8fd8\u63a5\u89e6\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u96c7\u5458\uff0c\u5411\u4ed6\u4eec\u95ee\u8be2\u4e0e\u897f\u65b9\u96c7\u5458\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8425\u8fd0\u6709\u5173\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u867d\u7136\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3a\u5927\u672c\u8425\u7684\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4ee5\u53ca\u5730\u65b9\u4e0a\u7684\u83b7\u5f97\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d44\u52a9\u7684\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u7126\u70b9\uff0c\u4f46\u897f\u65b9NGO\u754c\u8fd8\u662f\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u597d\u51e0\u4e2a\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u6216\u7531\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8d5e\u52a9\u7684\u4ea4\u6d41\u8ba1\u5212\u88ab\u505c\u6b62\u4e86\uff0c\u8d1f\u8d23\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u5b98\u50da\u5728\u5904\u7406\u5f85\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6216\u4e13\u4e1a\u5408\u4f5c\u9879\u76ee\u4e0a\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u66f4\u4e3a\u4fdd\u5b88\u3002Yongding, \u201cChina\u2019s Color-Coded Crackdown\u201d; interview with a senior research fellow of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China, September 20, 2007; interview with three program officers of a major U.S.-headquartered NGO, Beijing, China, September 20, 2007; interview with a former official of the U.S. embassy in China, Beijing, China, September 7, 2007.  \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u6cd5\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u5c31\u62ab\u9732\u4ed6\u90a3\u6700\u8fd1\u63a5\u53d7\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u5f00\u53d1\u7f72\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u63f4\u52a9\u3001\u53f8\u6cd5\u63f4\u52a9\u9879\u76ee\u5c31\u57282007\u5e749\u6708\u88ab\u53f8\u6cd5\u90e8\u6700\u9ad8\u5c42\u57fa\u4e8e\u672a\u516c\u5f00\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u7ed9\u505c\u6b62\u4e86\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u653e\u7f13\u4e86\u5176\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d1f\u8d23\u6cd5\u6cbb\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u30022007\u5e748\u670828\u65e5\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u4e0e\u4e00\u5bb6\u603b\u90e8\u8bbe\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5927\u578bNGO\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u9ad8\u7ba1\u7684\u8bbf\u8c08\uff1b2007\u5e748\u670831\u65e5\u4e0e\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b66\u4e00\u4f4d\u8d1f\u8d23\u4e2d\u56fd\u6cd5\u5f8b\u63f4\u52a9\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6559\u6388\u7684\u8bbf\u8c08\uff1b2007\u5e749\u670820\u65e5\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u79d1\u9662\u4e00\u4f4d\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u7684\u8bbf\u8c08\u4e2d\u4e5f\u8bc1\u5b9e\uff0c\u81ea2004\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff08\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b98\u65b9\u5bf9\uff09\u5916\u56fdNGO\u53ca\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u5728\u65e5\u76ca\u6536\u7d27\u3002  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u7531\u65f6\u523b\u8b66\u60d5\u6240\u6fc0\u53d1\u7684\u653f\u6743\u7ef4\u7a33\u63aa\u65bd\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u53cd\u5e94\u4e86\u88abBeissinger\u548cTucker\u6240\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u7684\u201c\u7cbe\u82f1\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u5f0f\u201d\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u201c\u5f53\u6743\u6d3e\u7cbe\u82f1\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u5236\u5ea6\u5728\u672a\u6765\u7684\u524d\u666f\u4fdd\u6301\u4e86\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0b\u9762\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u63aa\u65bd\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u4e3b\u52a8\u51fa\u51fb\u53bb\u9632\u6b62\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6311\u6218\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u3001\u9547\u538b\u5b83\u4eec\u4ee5\u53ca\u589e\u52a0\u5b83\u4eec\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u5230\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u9650\u5236\u201d\u3002Mark R. Beissinger, \u201cStructure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena,\u201d p. 269.   \u5982\u679c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5e2e\u52a9\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u5b83\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u548c\u5f53\u6743\u6d3e\u5b66\u8005\u5bf9\u4e2d\u5171\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u52a0\u4ee5\u575a\u5b88\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u8981\u53bb\u91c7\u7eb3\u7531\u897f\u65b9\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u7684\u3001\u591a\u515a\u5236\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u5236\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u5927\u9009\u91cc\uff0c\u4e00\u6b21\u88ab\u66dd\u5149\u7684\u821e\u5f0a\u6216\u4e0d\u5f53\u884c\u4e3a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d8\u6210\u88ab\u653f\u6cbb\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u6240\u5229\u7528\u7684\u201c\u805a\u7126\u70b9\u201d(\u201cfocal point\u201d)\u3002Joshua A. Tucker, \u201cEnough!\u201d p. 541.  \u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u515a\u56fd\u7684\u5148\u53d1\u5236\u4eba\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u9996\u8981\u76ee\u6807\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u627c\u6740\u5355\u4e00\u6297\u4e89\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u5168\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u805a\u7126\u70b9\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u4e8b\u6001\u7684\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u662f\u8981\u53bb\u5206\u5316\u90a3\u79cd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u805a\u7126\u70b9\uff0c\u9632\u6b62\u72ec\u7acb\u6d3b\u52a8\u4eba\u58eb\u3001\u4e0d\u6ee1\u516c\u6c11\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e32\u8054\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u653f\u6cbb\u83b7\u76ca\u53bb\u653e\u5927\u548c\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u805a\u7126\u70b9\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

2007\u5e74\u5e74\u672b\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u523b\u8b66\u60d5\u663e\u8457\u6d88\u9000\u4e86\u3002\u5728\u56fd\u5185\uff0c\u7531\u65f6\u523b\u8b66\u60d5\u6240\u6307\u5bfc\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u963b\u6b62\u4e86\u5730\u65b9\u6c11\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u6269\u6563\u53ca\u5176\u4e0e\u5916\u90e8\u538b\u529b\u7684\u8054\u7f51\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e2d\u5171\u6240\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u79e9\u5e8f\u5f97\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u6743\u81ea\u8eab\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u9632\u5b83\u6240\u6050\u60e7\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u90a3\u79cd\u8d8b\u52bf\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u65ad\u62c9\u5927\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u548c\u653f\u6cbb-\u53f8\u6cd5\u5c01\u95ed\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u9e3f\u6c9f\u3002\u65cf\u7fa4\u66b4\u52a8\u5206\u522b\u5728\u897f\u85cf\uff082008\u5e743\u6708\uff09\u548c\u65b0\u7586\uff082009\u5e747\u6708\uff09\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6-\u793e\u4f1a\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u6613\u53d8\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u56fd\u5bb6\u793e\u4f1a\u5173\u7cfb\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u6743\u7684\u76d1\u6d4b\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u80fd\u529b\u5904\u4e8e\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u7d27\u5f20\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u867d\u7136\u53ef\u611f\u77e5\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u5df2\u7ecf\u6d88\u9000\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u8fd0\u52a8\u548c\u5ba3\u4f20\u52a8\u5458\u4ecd\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed\uff0c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u4e00\u8bcd\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4ee5\u67d0\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u5165\u5230\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8bcd\u5178\u91cc\u3002\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u6307\u6d89\u4efb\u4f55\u4f01\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u7531\u897f\u65b9\u52bf\u529b\u652f\u6301\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u5e72\u9884\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u53d8\u9769\u3002\u62c5\u5fc3\u897f\u65b9\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u52a8\u4e00\u573a\u201c\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u201d\u6709\u4e24\u6761\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u89c1\u738b\u664b\u71d5 \u201c\u2018\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u2019\u7b56\u52a8\u8005\u9634\u8c0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u201d  <\/FONT>www.chinaelections.org\/NewsInfo.asp?NewsID=124328<\/FONT><\/A> \u4ee5\u53ca\u6c88\u672c\u79cb\u3001\u502a\u4e16\u96c4\uff1a\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ecb\u5165\u9999\u6e2f\u201d\u4e00\u56fd\u4e24\u5236\u201c\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u4e0e\u8d8b\u52bf\u300b\uff0c \u300a\u73b0\u4ee3\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u300b2008\u5e74\u7b2c11\u671f  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u56fd\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u4e8b\u52a1\u5b98\u50da\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u5728\u5409\u5c14\u5409\u65af\u65af\u5766\u6b62\u4f4f\u4e86\u811a\u6b65\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u7ee7\u7eed\u6269\u6563\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9769\u547d\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u683c\u9c81\u5409\u4e9a\u3001\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u548c\u5409\u5c14\u5409\u65af\u65af\u5766\u638c\u63e1\u7edd\u5bf9\u6743\u529b\u3002\u8d75\u534e\u80dc\uff1a \u300a\u989c\u8272\u9769\u547d\u540e\u6b27\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u5f62\u52bf\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u300b\uff0cpp. 31-32  \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5916\u90e8\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u538b\u529b\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u5f88\u660e\u663e\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u88ab\u7f8e\u56fd\u526f\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\u4f50\u5229\u514b\u57282005\u5e749\u670821\u65e5(Robert Zoellick)\u7684\u4e00\u5e2d\u8bdd\u7ed9\u7a00\u91ca\u6389\u4e86\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bb2\u8bdd\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f50\u5229\u514b\u6566\u4fc3\u4e2d\u56fd\u6210\u4e3a\u65e2\u6709\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u201c\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u5229\u5bb3\u5173\u7cfb\u8005\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5408\u4f5c\u53bb\u5904\u7406\u8bf8\u5982\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6740\u4f24\u6027\u6b66\u5668\u7b49\u5168\u7403\u8bae\u9898\u3002Robert B. Zoellick, \u201cWhither China: From Membership to Responsibility?\u201d (remarks to the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, New York City, September 21, 2005), at <\/FONT>www.ncuscr.org\/recentremarks<\/FONT><\/A>– and-speeches.  \u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u6df1\u9677\u5728\u53cd\u6050\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u3001\u5728\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u68d8\u624b\u8bae\u9898\u4e0a\u6781\u4e3a\u9700\u8981\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\uff08\u6216\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u9ed8\u8bb8\uff09\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u518d\u6b21\u786e\u4fe1\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d44\u52a9\u7684\u653f\u6743\u66f4\u8fed\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u4e4b\u5185\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u534e\u76db\u987f\u4e50\u4e8e\u89c1\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ee5\u548c\u5e73\u65b9\u5f0f\u671d\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u3002\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\u90a3\u91cc\u83b7\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u518d\u4fdd\u8bc1\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u4f7f\u5f97\u5317\u4eac\u5728\u534e\u76db\u987f\u9488\u5bf9\u6d41\u6c13\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u4e0a\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u8f83\u4e0d\u963b\u6320\u7684\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u6d41\u6c13\u56fd\u5bb6\u6301\u6709\uff08\u6216\u6f5c\u5728\u4e0a\u5177\u6709\uff09\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u6218\u7565\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5229\u5bb3\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u82cf\u4e39\u3001\u7f05\u7538\u3001\u671d\u9c9c\u548c\u4f0a\u6717\u3002Hak Yin Li\u548c\u90d1\u6c38\u5e74, \u201cRe-interpreting China\u2019s Non-Intervention Policy towards Myanmar:Leverage, Interest, and Intervention,\u201d Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 18, Issue 61 (2009), pp. 630-33; Quentin Peel, \u201cChina Tested by Unstable Neighbour,\u201d Financial Times, September 27, 2007; Morton Abramowitz and Jonathan Kolieb, \u201cWhy China Won\u2019t Save Darfur,\u201d Foreign Policy, June 2007, at <\/FONT>www.foreignpolicy.com\/story\/cms.php?story_id=3847<\/FONT><\/A>;\u90b5\u6770\uff0c\u201c\u5316\u89e3\u8fbe\u5bcc\u5c14\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u8981\u7d20\u201d \u534a\u6708\u8c08 \uff0c2007\u5e746\u670825\u65e5 <\/FONT>http:\/\/news.xinhuanet.com\/world\/2007-06\/25\/content_6287115.htm<\/FONT><\/A>  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u65b0\u7684\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u88ab\u7eb3\u5165\u4e86\u5e38\u89c4\u7a0b\u5e8f\uff0c\u515a\u56fd\u673a\u5173\u4eba\u5458\u548c\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u516c\u5171\u5229\u76ca\u5021\u5bfc\u8005\u4ee5\u53caNGO\u4e4b\u95f4\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u9ed8\u8ba4\u4e00\u81f4\u4f46\u53c8\u5177\u6709\u5730\u533a\u53d8\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u88ab\u8521\u6b23\u6021\uff08Kellee Tsai\uff09\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u79c1\u8425\u7ecf\u6d4e\u90e8\u95e8\u91cc\u7684\u201c\u8c03\u9002\u6027\u7684\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5236\u5ea6\u201d(adaptive informal institutions)\u2014\u2014\u5730\u65b9\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u65e5\u5e38\u4e0e\u5f53\u5730\u5b98\u5458\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u4e2d\u51d1\u5408\u7740\u4f7f\u7528\u90a3\u4e9b\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u5b89\u6392\u53bb\u9003\u907f\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6b63\u5f0f\u89c4\u5b9a\u2014\u2014\u5728\u6c11\u95f4\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ba1\u7406\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u8521\u6b23\u6021\uff08Kellee S. Tsai\uff09, Capitalism without Democracy: the Private Sector in China (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2007).  \u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u4eba\u58eb\u4ee5\u53ca\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u8fbe\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5730\u65b9\u5316\u7684\u3001\u9ed8\u5951\u7684\u3001\u6613\u53d8\u7684\u6743\u76ca\u4e4b\u8ba1(modus vivendi)\uff0c\u4e5f\u5373\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u9ed8\u8bb8\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e3a\u5730\u65b9NGO\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u672a\u767b\u8bb0\u7684\u90a3\u79cd\uff09\u65e5\u5e38\u8425\u8fd0\u548c\u77ed\u671f\u53d1\u5c55\u51c6\u8bb8\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u6a21\u68f1\u4e24\u53ef\u7684\u3001\u672a\u8be6\u7ec6\u8bf4\u660e\u7684\u5598\u606f\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u4e2d\u5171\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u90a3\u4e9b\u653f\u6743\u7a33\u5b9a\u5316\u63aa\u65bd\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed\u6f14\u53d8\u3002\u515a\u7684\u8c03\u9002\u6027\u7b56\u7565\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e2d\u5171\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5f3a\u52b2\u6027\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u56de\u5e94\u6027\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u77ed\u671f\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u653f\u6743\u6301\u4e45\u6027\u56e0\u6b64\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5236\u5ea6\u6027\u8c03\u9002\u7684\u786e\u4fdd\u3002Marc Lanteigne, \u201cThe Developmentalism\/Globalization Conundrum in Chinese Governance,\u201d in Andre Laliberte and Marc Lanteigne, eds., The Chinese Party-State in the 21st Century: Adaptation and the Reinvention of Legitimacy (London: Routledge, 2008), pp. 162-83.  <\/FONT><\/P>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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