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Is China Rising or Falling?<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

Gordon G. Chang<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

Is China rising or is it falling?
Today, I am going to challenge the most fundamental assumption people make
about China.  Just about everyone says China is rising and that this is \u201cChina\u2019s century.\u201d 
To see if this assumption is correct, it would help to have a little historical perspective.  So I\u2019m going to give you a short history of the world during the last four decades, and I\u2019m going to do all this through the lens of my life. 
I graduated college in 1973.  The year is significant because that was the time of the Arab oil embargo and the turmoil in global petroleum markets.  When I got out of school, I just knew I was going to be working for some sheik for the rest of my life. 
Then we fast forward to the end of the 1980s.  I was practicing law in Hong Kong.  My firm did a lot of work for Tokyo banks, and almost all of my partners were caught up in the Japan craze.  Then, it seemed as if the Japanese were going to take over the world.
And there was plenty of evidence suggesting that was going to happen.  The Emperor\u2019s Imperial Palace, not even 250 acres, was valued at more than all the real estate in California; land in Japan in 1990 was worth fifty percent more than the remainder of the planet; the value of stocks listed in Tokyo exceeded the combined value of those listed in  New York, Frankfurt, London, Paris, and Toronto; and all of the world\u2019s ten largest banks were Japanese as were its four largest securities companies. 
The Japanese people went wild, importing ice cubes from Antarctica and buying everyone\u2019s else\u2019s icons.
That\u2019s why everyone talked about \u201cthe Japanese century.\u201d 
I wasn\u2019t interested in geopolitics then, but I knew that Japan would falter.  How did I gain this remarkable insight that had somehow eluded the world\u2019s smartest people?  Simple, I realized I was not then working for Arabs.  I had seen all this hysteria before, just with a different cast of characters.
And I knew something then that people are forgetting now: that all bubbles burst. 
But now the world is at it again.  People leap from the statement that \u201cdemography is destiny\u201d to the conclusion that a China five times more populous than the United States will have an economy five times larger. 
\u3000\u3000I disagree.  I say we need to look at the broad sweep of events. 
Despite all the economic reform in China that we see on the surface, the political system has changed remarkably little underneath.  Mao Zedong created an abnormal society.  But he was at least enough of a realist to surround his new republic with high and strong walls so that it could survive almost indefinitely on the inside.  His successors have sought to create a more modern nation.  But they have not changed the Maoist system, where the Communist Party dictates and the people are supposed to follow.  Yet at the same time China\u2019s new leaders are successively opening the country.  As they do so, all the forces that apply around the world\u2014political, economic, and social\u2014are beginning to apply in China as well.  At some point in this process this centrally directed system will fail.  It\u2019s as if Mao tried to abolish the law of gravity by decree in his new republic.  As the country is opened up by his successors, gravity is applying in China.
By now, this process of change has acquired its own momentum\u2014the Communist Party can no longer stop it.  And as it continues, the People\u2019s Republic is beginning to take on the look, and even some of the feel, of the modern world.  In short, China is becoming less Chinese. 
So the issue today is not whether the central government is doing the right things or the wrong things.  The issue is time.  In a short period of time, the next few years, China will face many challenges, some of them unprecedented.  Let\u2019s discuss six of them.
First, the economy is on a trajectory with few good outcomes.  Because predictions of China\u2019s rise are predicated on its world-beating economy, we need to spend time to see what is actually going on. 
We\u2019ll start with exports, until recently, the most important of the three legs of the Chinese economy. 
Last year, China\u2019s exports dropped 16.0 percent.  And the prospect for the intermediate future is, at best, uncertain.  Chinese exports skyrocketed in the December-to-September period, but that was off a low base and the momentum is unlikely to last beyond this year due to fragile global demand. 
Demand is fragile not only in developed economies but also in emerging ones.  Moreover, demand could take an especially hard hit if we enter the second part of a double-dip downturn, which is looking increasingly likely. 
In good times, an export economy is a blessing.  In bad ones, however, it is a curse.  As we saw in the Great Depression, it was the current account-surplus countries that had the hardest time adjusting to deteriorating economic conditions and, consequently, suffered the most.  That will prove to be the case now as well.  China\u2019s economic model, which delivered prosperity in a period of seemingly unending growth, is particularly ill-suited to current conditions.
To meet the challenges of these conditions, Beijing, in July of 2008, adopted protectionist measures.  That is already causing its trade partners to think of retaliation.  China is more dependent on international commerce than almost any other nation, so a global trade war will hurt the Chinese more than others.
And a global trade war could be coming.  We have to remember that China\u2019s exports boomed in the post-Cold War era.  In this unusually benign period, countries wanted to integrate China into the international system and were indulgent, tolerating its mercantilist policies. 
But we have left that time of uninterrupted growth.  Now, every nation wants to export more.  President Obama, in his State of the Union message this year, announced a goal of doubling American exports in the next five years with his National Export Initiative.  In short, Obama wants America to become just like China.  So we will not let China be China anymore.
In an era of protectionism or of managed trade\u2014whatever you wish to label it\u2014
China will not be able to export its way to prosperity, as it did in the Asian Financial Crisis at the end of the last decade.
Analysts, by and large, don\u2019t worry about the coming falloff in exports.  They say the central government can stimulate domestic consumption to take up the slack. 
Beijing says it wants to increase consumption.  But we need to look at the facts.  In fact, consumption\u2019s role in the economy has been sliding, dropping from its historical average of about 60 percent to about 30 percent today.  No country has a lower rate.  And the steps the central government is taking to stimulate exports\u2014like holding down the value of its currency\u2014inevitably discourage consumption.  Moreover, the government\u2019s stimulus program, which focuses on building infrastructure and industrial production, is by definition anti-consumption.
In this environment, China\u2019s consumers have in fact been cautious.  It\u2019s true that Beijing keeps issuing statistics showing retail sales increasing each and every month.  In August, for example, they jumped 18.4 percent.  But we must remember Beijing includes government procurement in retail sales numbers; central government statisticians have been counting factory production\u2014in other words, unsold inventory\u2014as retail sales; and   from what we can tell, Chinese technocrats have been ordering localities and state enterprises to buy cars, and many of them are parked in lots across China, unused.  That\u2019s about the only credible explanation as to how the number of registered cars could increase 24 percent last year while gas sales went up only about 5 percent.  The Chinese even have a name for the stored vehicles: \u201clot rot.\u201d
And there is another problem in that the retail sales numbers have not been consistent with other data, especially last year when we saw persistent deflation, robust retail sales, and rapid monetary expansion all at the same time.  That combination may be possible in another galaxy but not ours.
The overriding reality is that consumption cannot become significant until Beijing, in fact and not just in words, abandons its investment-led strategy. 
And that gets us to the third leg of the Chinese economy, investment.
Beijing\u2019s $586 billion stimulus plan is creating growth.  In the first half of this year, for instance, the economy grew by an impressive 11.1 percent.  As a result, the Chinese economy is now the second largest in the world, surpassing Japan\u2019s in the second quarter of this year. 
In its first full year of existence, Beijing\u2019s stimulus program has, either directly or indirectly through the state banks, pumped, according to my calculations, $1.1 trillion into China\u2019s $4.76 trillion economy. 
There are a number of problems, however, with this \u201csugar high.\u201d  For one thing, all the spending is grossly inefficient. 
Yet that is not its worst sin.  The worst sin is that Beijing\u2019s program is resulting in a bigger state economy and a smaller private one: about 95 percent of recent growth is attributable to investment, almost all of it from the state.  And state investment is going into the state sector, of course.  The state\u2019s stimulus plan is favoring large state enterprises over small and medium-sized private firms, and state financial institutions are diverting credit to state-sponsored infrastructure. 
Over the last 30 years, China\u2019s economy has expanded at an average annual rate of 9.9 percent because of the private sector, but now Beijing is renationalizing the economy with state cash.  As they say, \u201cthe Party is now the economy.\u201d  Renationalization will have negative consequences for Chinese growth, if not soon then at least over the next few years. 
And the flood of stimulus money has created dislocations and imbalances, such as the property market bubble, that will be difficult to unwind.
One final point about the Chinese economy.  Some argue that the troubles will soon be forgotten because the economy is in a supercycle upward.  Yes, China was in a supercycle, but that has ended. 
Why?  By far the most important reason is that China has turned it back on its proven formula for success.  President Hu Jintao has abandoned Deng Xiaoping\u2019s policy of \u201creform and opening up\u201d as he embraces a new economic paradigm of closing the country down.  Beijing, these days, is building up its so-called \u201cnational champions\u201d and
restricting opportunities for foreign business. 
And economic reform?  There\u2019s not much of it.  The best you can say is that they are tinkering.
Because Beijing still retains significant control over the economy, central technocrats can, through a hundred different techniques, manage outcomes.  Yet they cannot avoid the inevitable.  And by postponing the adjustments that must occur, they are making the final reckoning worse.  State-led economies always work\u2014until they do not.  When they do not, they fall apart fast.
I mentioned there were six problems.  The second one is China faces trade difficulties as other nations insist that Beijing stop violating its World Trade Organization obligations and as they are increasingly unwilling to accept defective products and poisonous foods. 
Third, the domestic banking system is in trouble.  China\u2019s official nonperforming loan ratio\u20141.3 percent at the end of the first half of this year\u2014is a fantasy.  They have gone back to rolling over questionable loans. 
And there are a lot of questionable loans to rollover.  The $586 billion stimulus plan, as we all know, resulted in an explosion of lending to \u201cbeauty-show projects\u201d that had little economic viability. 
Last year, Chinese banks lent 95.3 percent more than they did in 2008.  This year, despite a clampdown, lending is running only a little behind last year\u2019s torrid pace.  Every time there has been a lending surge of this dimension, a banking crisis has followed.
As history also demonstrates, eventually financial flows reverse.  When they do so\u2014and look for this to happen sometime at the end of this year or the beginning of the next one\u2014we could see a crisis of historic proportions. 
Fourth, the nation\u2019s social security system is inadequate, in some ways even in worse shape than the banks.  Beijing will need to come up with $1.2 trillion, give or take a few hundred billion dollars, in the years ahead to provide benefits.  This is true even though Beijing has made progress in funding its obligations in the last half decade. 
Moreover, China faces a demographic problem that will make it difficult to raise funds to support a rapidly aging society.  People often talk about the disastrous social consequences of the brutally enforced one-child policy\u2014prostitution, trafficking in women, HIV, for instance\u2014but they often forget it has serious economic effects as well. 
China\u2019s workforce will level off in about 2013, and the country will begin to shrink around 2025, maybe even 2020.  A shrinking population will, in all probability, mean shrinking GDP and less money for benefits.
The country has already benefited from its \u201cdemographic dividend,\u201d an extraordinary bulge in the country\u2019s workforce.  Soon there will be a heavy \u201cdemographic tax\u201d when one worker supports two parents and four grandparents.  Demography may not be destiny, but it will create high barriers for China.  
Fifth, the country stands on the edge of a monumental environmental crisis, perhaps the worst in world history, or at least the worst since the flood in Biblical times.  Sixteen of the world\u2019s twenty dirtiest cities are located in the People\u2019s Republic. 
China\u2019s most pressing environmental problem involves water, either too much or too little of it.  This year, the country suffered from the worst flooding in a decade, perhaps longer.  The flooding follows this year\u2019s drought, the worst one since the Ming dynasty.  The drought in the northern part of the country is, from year to year, so bad that some people think the government should move the capital to an area with more water.
Parts of the Yellow River, China\u2019s second longest, have dried up since the early 1970s.  It ran dry every year in the 1990s but one.  Since then, the government has remedied the problem by releasing water from reservoirs, but that has only masked conditions.  The outflow of the river is about 10 percent of what it was in the 1940s. 
The Yangtze, China\u2019s longest, also dries up these days.
Rivers are dry, and deserts advance from the north.  Today, they cover more than 27 percent of the country\u2019s land.  The figure increases by a couple hundred square miles each year as the sands move south, both in the eastern and western portions of the country.  This relentless process has seen China\u2019s deserts merge as they swallow up more precious land.
A few summers ago the science and technology ministry warned, \u201cThe water resources crisis even threatens the future survival of the Chinese nation.\u201d  If anything, things have gotten worse since then.  Central government policies are leading the Chinese state to an ecological disaster for which there is no remedy.
Chinese leaders say they\u2019re trying to conserve water and clean up the environment,
but they\u2019re not really serious.  For most of them, economic development is far more important than anything else.  And now that the economy needs state investment to grow, the environment is becoming even less of a priority for government at all levels.  To get stimulus projects going, Beijing is ignoring the environmental restrictions put in place in recent years with so much fanfare from the West. 
Sixth, China has never been more corrupt in its history.  Unfortunately, corruption is one problem the Communist Party cannot solve.  There have been anti-corruption campaigns since 1951, just two years after the founding of the People\u2019s Republic, but China has only become more diseased over time. 
The new $586 billion stimulus campaign, according to analysts, may be triggering the biggest surge of corruption in Chinese history as governments throw money at state projects with few controls.  A senior economist at one of the state\u2019s most prominent financial institutions says he can personally document that $294 billion of Beijing\u2019s money \u201cwent private\u201d\u2014in other words, was stolen. 
We know a lot of cash has been misdirected, to use a polite term.  How do we know that?  Macau casinos, which had been languishing before the announcement of the stimulus program, now are turning profits hand over fist.  Why?  Officials are gambling with state stimulus funds that they have diverted from government projects to their own pockets.
The late Party statesman Chen Yun once astutely remarked, \u201cNot fighting corruption would destroy the country; fighting it would destroy the Party.\u201d 
So China has problems.  Any one of them\u2014and I have not listed them all\u2014would be difficult for the Communist Party to take.  Add them all together, and we can see why the regime will fail.  Scholars dismiss talk of China\u2019s collapse as they downplay one concern or another.  The point is that China faces these challenges all at once, not one challenge at a time. 
Yet this is not just a question of specific problems.  Even if it could solve each and every one of them in short order, the Communist Party would still face one insurmountable challenge.  Those who are optimistic about the future of the People\u2019s Republic point to all the economic growth and progress of the last three decades.  I agree that China has come a long way\u2014and that is precisely why I think the country\u2019s one-party state is in such jeopardy.
Change, in general, is tough for reforming regimes.  There is nothing so destabilizing as modernization, which can radicalize even the beneficiaries of progress\u2014and especially them. 
Those wanting to know the future of China may want to brush up on Tocqueville, who noted that peasants in pre-revolutionary France detested feudalism more than their counterparts in other portions of Europe, where conditions were worse.  Discontent was highest in those parts of France where there had been the most improvement.  Moreover, the French Revolution followed an economic advance as rapid as it was unprecedented.  So, as Tocqueville notes, \u201csteadily increasing prosperity\u201d doesn\u2019t tranquilize citizens.  On the contrary, it promotes \u201ca spirit of unrest.\u201d 
Chinese leaders should not take comfort from the fact that Tocqueville was writing about 18th century France, another continent and another century.  We saw these same trends play out in late 20th century Thailand and, more important, both in the Confucian society of South Korea a mere two decades ago and the Chinese-dominated society of Taiwan just a little later.
Senior Beijing officials now face the dilemma of all reforming authoritarians: economic success endangers their continued control.  Sustained modernization is the enemy of one-party systems.  Revolutions occur under many conditions, but especially when political institutions do not keep up with the social forces unleashed by economic change.  Nothing irritates a rising social class like inflexible leaders. 
Beijing\u2019s policies seem designed to widen this gap between the people and their government, thereby ensuring greater instability for the foreseeable future.  Today there\u2019s unimaginable societal change at unheard of speed thanks in large part to government-sponsored economic growth and social engineering.  Yet at the same time the Communist Party stands in the way of meaningful political change.
So it should come as no surprise that as China grew more prosperous in recent years, it also became less stable.  Last year, there were 230,000 protests according to one report.  That\u2019s way up from 127,000 in 2008 and the 80,000 to 90,000 a year during the earlier part of this decade. 
Strikes, which began at a Honda plant in Guangdong province in May, spread to the Yangtze delta, and then up to Tianjin.  The strikes then cascaded across the nation.  The speed at which they raced across the country is just an indication of the volatility of Chinese society.
And it is an indication that the Chinese people are beginning to find their courage.  When that happens, societies change.  Authoritarian governments tremble when common folk begin to feel the safety of numbers.  \u201cChinese don\u2019t protest when they are most upset, but when they think they can get away with it,\u201d notes New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof.  If Beijing wants to learn anything from the Soviet collapse, it is once fear is gone, the system cannot last. 
Just before the Beijing Olympics, I was talking with a prominent businessman in his spacious office in a Shanghai skyscraper, and he acknowledged how much China had changed in the last twenty years.  \u201cNo one fears the government any more,\u201d he noted with a broad smile. 
The Chinese government, although it tries to be more coercive, is losing its ability to intimidate.  As a consequence, the Chinese people have become self-aware, assertive, and defiant. 
In June, a security officer at a government office in Hunan province, the home of Mao Zedong, stole an automatic weapon and killed three judges while wounding three others.  He has since become a hero on the internet for his attack on hated judicial personnel.  You know something is fundamentally wrong when many of society\u2019s heroes are killers of government officials.
Clearly, the country\u2019s ruling organization has lost legitimacy, even among the relatively well-to-do.
Middle-class Chinese, the beneficiaries of decades of reform, are taking to the streets.  They act like peasants and workers whenever they think their rights are threatened.  If there is one unifying theme for unrest today, it is the desire for justice, the demand to be treated fairly.  That\u2019s a hopeful sign for society in general but not for the Communist Party.  
The Communist Party has remained in power by preventing competitors from banding together to form nationwide organizations.  Yet today on the internet and in other forums, the Chinese people are having national conversations for the first time since the Tiananmen massacre two decades ago.  As a result, citizens with common grievances are beginning to act in unison, posing a challenge of the first order to the regime. 
Mao Zedong consolidated his power by dividing up the Chinese people into small units and isolating them from each other.  Now, in a modernizing society, they are putting themselves back together.  This is perhaps the most important legacy of thirty years of reform\u2014and what Mao feared most.
Mao also feared the Chinese people trying to govern themselves.  Many say the Chinese are not ready for democracy.  That\u2019s not true.  The electrifying response of the Chinese people to the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo is a clear confirmation that China is ready for real elections, a free press, and the rule of law.
       How do I know this?  I went back to Rugao, my dad\u2019s hometown, just before the Olympics.  No one wanted to talk about the event, which was derided as \u201cthe government\u2019s games.\u201d 
Instead, almost everyone asked my wife and me how the American political system worked and who would win the presidential election.  They wanted to know everything we could tell them about John McCain and Barack Obama.  
In short, the Chinese people want something new.  And one way or another, they will prevail. 
China will one day be free.  And that day will be soon.
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