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\u82f1\u56fd\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u5361\u5c14•\u6ce2\u666e\uff08Karl Popper\uff09\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u6709\u7740\u5f3a\u70c8\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u4e0e\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u9f50\u540d\u7684\u300120\u4e16\u7eaa\u53cd\u6781\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u6700\u6770\u51fa\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4ed6\u6279\u5224\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u5373\u8ba4\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5386\u53f2\u53d1\u5c55\u89c4\u5f8b\u3001\u9884\u8a00\u4eba\u7c7b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u8fd9\u4e00\u601d\u60f3\u7d27\u5bc6\u76f8\u8fde\u7684\u201c\u6574\u4f53\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u4e4c\u6258\u90a6\u793e\u4f1a\u5de5\u7a0b\u201d\uff08holistic or utopian social engineering\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e3b\u5f20\u4ee5\u7b26\u5408\u4eba\u7c7b\u8ba4\u8bc6\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u201c\u96f6\u661f\u793e\u4f1a\u5de5\u7a0b\u201d\uff08piecemeal social engineering\uff09\u6539\u826f\u793e\u4f1a\u3002\u6574\u4f53\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u4e4c\u6258\u90a6\u5de5\u7a0b\u201c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u4e8e\u6839\u636e\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u786e\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u6216\u84dd\u56fe\u518d\u9020\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u201d\uff0c\u4e0e\u6b64\u76f8\u5bf9\uff0c\u96f6\u661f\u793e\u4f1a\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u4ed6\u662f\u5426\u6000\u6709\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u603b\u662f\u201c\u52aa\u529b\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e00\u4e9b\u80fd\u591f\u4e0d\u65ad\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u5c0f\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u548c\u518d\u8c03\u6574\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u5176\u76ee\u7684\u201d\uff08\u6ce841\uff09\u3002\u6574\u4f53\u5de5\u7a0b\u662f\u4e0d\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u4e0d\u7406\u6027\u7684\u3001\u53cd\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6574\u4f53\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u53ea\u80fd\u7814\u7a76\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u3001\u67d0\u4e9b\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3002\u91cd\u5efa\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u6548\u679c\u662f\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u8ba1\u7684\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u5236\u5b9a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u3002\u6539\u9020\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u5c06\u7ed9\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5e26\u6765\u4e0d\u4fbf\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e2d\u95f4\u52bf\u5fc5\u5b58\u5728\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u9769\u547d\u8005\u4eec\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u538b\u5236\u6279\u8bc4\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u5a01\u6743\u65b9\u5f0f\u63a8\u884c\u6539\u9020\u8ba1\u5212\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u8d70\u4e0a\u8fd9\u6761\u8def\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6b64\u540e\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7f3a\u70b9\u3001\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6781\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u9636\u7ea7\uff0c\u65b0\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u65b0\u7edf\u6cbb\u9636\u7ea7\u3001\u65b0\u5b98\u50da\u8d35\u65cf\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u63a9\u76d6\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u7528\u9769\u547d\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u4e3a\u5176\u6743\u529b\u8fa9\u62a4\u3001\u7a33\u56fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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1\u3001Timothy Garton Ash: We the People: The Revolution of 89(Cambridge in Association with Penguin Books, 1990, p45). <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

2\u3001\u5218\u518d\u590d\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u8868\u8ff0\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5728\u201c6-4\u201d\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u5fc3\u5883\uff1a\u201c\u4e00\u4e5d\u516b\u4e5d\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6211\u6709\u2014\u79cd\u7a92\u606f\u611f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e0b\u5b50\u5760\u5165\u6ca1\u6709\u8fb9\u9645\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6df1\u6e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f53\u9a8c\u771f\u662f\u2018\u523b\u9aa8\u94ed\u5fc3\u2019\u201d\u3002\u201c\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u6c89\u91cd\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u8f7b\u677e\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u771f\u7684\u597d\u50cf\u6b7b\u8fc7\u2014\u6b21\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4eba\u751f\u3002\u201d\uff08\u674e\u6cfd\u539a\u3001\u5218\u518d\u590d\u300a\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u300b\uff0c\u7b2c2\u9875\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u5929\u5730\u56fe\u4e66\u6709\u9650\u516c\u53f8\uff0c2004\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c5\u7248\uff09<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

3\u3001\u201c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e74\u6765\u6211\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d7\u591f\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u201d\uff0c\u4e00\u4f4d\u6ce2\u5170\u8001\u4eba\u57281989\u5e746\u67084\u65e5\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u8fb9\u8fd9\u6837\u8bf4\u7740\uff0c\u4e00\u8fb9\u5212\u6389\u4e86\u9009\u7968\u4e0a\u6240\u6709\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u540d\u5b57\u3002\u53c2\u89c1Timothy Garton Ash: We the People: The Revolution of 89, p28\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

4\u3001Bela Greskovits, Political Economy of Protest and Patience: Eastern European and Latin American Transformations Compared, p69 (Central European University Press , 1998). <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

5\u3001\u53c2\u89c1Jan Fidrmuc\uff0c\u201cEconomic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition\u201d\uff08European Journal of Political Economy \uff0cVol. 19 (2003) 583\u2013604\uff09\u3002\u4e2d\u6b27\u3001\u4e1c\u5357\u6b27\u3001\u6ce2\u7f57\u7684\u6d77\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08\u672c\u6587\u7edf\u79f0\u201c\u4e1c\u6b27\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\uff091995-1999\u5e74\u7684\u5e73\u5747GDP\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e3a\uff1a\u6ce2\u51705.78\uff0c\u5308\u7259\u52293.23\uff0c\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a1.96 \uff0c\u6377\u514b1.34 \uff0c\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b5.02 \uff0c\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a0.74\uff0c\u963f\u5c14\u5df4\u5c3c\u4e9a6.14\uff0c\u514b\u7f57\u5730\u4e9a4.28 \uff0c\u9a6c\u5176\u987f1.4\uff0c\u65af\u6d1b\u6587\u5c3c\u4e9a4.2\uff0c\u7231\u6c99\u5c3c\u4e9a4.48\uff0c\u62c9\u8131\u7ef4\u4e9a3.22\uff0c\u7acb\u9676\u5b9b3.24 \u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6c\u578b\u521d\u671f\uff0cGDP\u4e0b\u6ed1\u975e\u5e38\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u540eGDP\u624d\u6062\u590d\u52301989\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46GDP\u589e\u957f\u73871995\u5e74\u540e\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u7eb7\u7eb7\u8d85\u8d8a1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

6\u3001\u53c2\u89c1Oleh Havrylyshyn\uff1a \u201cFifteen Years of Transformation in the Post-Communist World\uff1a Rapid Reformers Outperformed Gradualists. The Cato Institute. Center for Global Development and Prosperity.Development Policy Analysis. No v e m b e r 9 , 2 0 0 7 , n o . 4\uff08http:\/\/www.cato.org\/pub_display.php?pub_id=8781\uff09\u3002\u5feb\u901f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1a\u6ce2\u5170\uff0c\u6377\u514b\uff0c\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b\uff0c\u7231\u6c99\u5c3c\u4e9a\uff0c\u62c9\u8131\u7ef4\u4e9a\uff0c\u7acb\u9676\u5b9b\u3002\u6539\u9769\u8d77\u70b9\u5f88\u9ad8\u7136\u540e\u5e73\u7a33\u63a8\u8fdb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1a\u5308\u7259\u5229\u3001\u514b\u7f57\u5730\u4e9a\u3001\u65af\u6d1b\u6587\u5c3c\u4e9a\u3002\u4f11\u514b\u7597\u6cd5\u6d41\u4ea7\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1a\u963f\u5c14\u5df4\u5c3c\u4e9a\u3001\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u9a6c\u5176\u987f\u3001\u5409\u5c14\u5409\u65af\u5766\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3002\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1a\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\u3001\u963f\u585e\u62dc\u7586\u3001\u4e9a\u7f8e\u5c3c\u4e9a\u3001\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u3001\u683c\u9c81\u5409\u4e9a\u3001\u5361\u624e\u514b\u65af\u5766\u3001\u5854\u5409\u514b\u65af\u5766\u3002\u53ea\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650\u6539\u9769\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1a\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u571f\u5e93\u66fc\u65af\u5766\u3001\u4e4c\u5179\u522b\u514b\u65af\u5766\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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7\u3001\u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u4f5c\u54c1\u6570\u4e0d\u80dc\u6570\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u53ea\u5217\u4e3e\u4e24\u7bc7\u6709\u771f\u77e5\u707c\u89c1\u3001\u5341\u5206\u96be\u5f97\u7684\u53cd\u9a73\u6587\u7ae0\u4f9b\u8bfb\u8005\u53c2\u8003\uff1a\u5434\u656c\u740f\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u201c\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u201d\u6218\u7565\u5417?\u300b\uff08\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u52a8\u6001\u300b, 1994\u5e74\u7b2c9\u671f\uff09\uff1b\u5b59\u6765\u7965\u300a\u5bf9\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u793e\u4f1a\u5171\u8bc6\u201d\u7684\u8d28\u7591\u300b\uff08\u300a\u6218\u7565\u4e0e\u7ba1\u7406\u300b,1995\u5e74\u7b2c1\u671f\uff09\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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http:\/\/www.chinaelections.org\/NewsInfo.asp?NewsID=140120\uff09<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

23\u3001\u94b1\u4e58\u65e6\u3001\u9648\u610f\u65b0\u300a\u8d70\u5411\u73b0\u4ee3\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u8def\u300b\uff0c\u7b2c251\u9875\uff08\u56db\u5ddd\u4eba\u6c11\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c1987\u5e74\uff09\u3002\u3000<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

24\u3001\u4e2d\u6587\u8bd1\u8457\u5982\u5df4\u6797\u987f•\u6469\u5c14\u8457\u3001\u62d3\u592b\u7b49\u8bd1\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u548c\u4e13\u5236\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u8d77\u6e90\u300b\uff0c\u7b2c1\u81f329\u9875\uff08\u534e\u590f\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c1987\u5e74\uff09\u3002\u82f1\u6587\u539f\u8457\u5982Arend Lijphart\uff1a The politics of accommodation: pluralism and democracy in the Netherlands\uff0cpp.96-97\uff08University of California Pr ess, 1976\uff09\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

25\u3001Dankwart A. Rustow, \u201cTransitions to democracy: Toward a dynamic model\u201d, Comparative Politics 2 (April,1970): 337-363\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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28\u3001Louis I. Bredvold and Ralph G. Ross\uff08\uff25\uff44\uff0e\uff09\uff1aPhilosophy of Edmund Burke\uff1a a Selection from His Speeches and Writings \uff0c\uff50161\uff08University of Michigan Press \uff0c1960\uff09\uff0e\u3000<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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30\u3001\u540c\u4e0a\u4e66\uff0c\u7b2c195\u9875\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

31\u3001\u540c\u4e0a\u4e66\uff0c\u7b2c251\u9875\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

32\u3001\u5173\u4e8e\u5218\u519b\u5b81\u5c06\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u5b9a\u683c\u4e3a\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u848b\u5e86\u6709\u4e00\u7bc7\u5f88\u6709\u542f\u53d1\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u6027\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7f51\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a\u201c\u67cf\u514b\u662f\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u67cf\u514b\u800c\u975e\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u67cf\u514b \u2014\u2014\u8bc4\u5218\u519b\u5b81\u300a\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u5bf9\u67cf\u514b\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u8bef\u89e3\u201d\uff08\u539f\u8f7d\u300a\u539f\u9053\u300b\u7b2c\u516d\u8f91\uff0c1999\u5e74\uff09\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

33\u3001\u53c2\u89c1A.J.Greve\u4e3a1910\u5e74\u7248\u7684\u67cf\u514b\u4ee3\u8868\u4f5c\u300a\u6cd5\u56fd\u9769\u547d\u53cd\u601d\u5f55\u300b\u6240\u5199\u7684\u5bfc\u8a00\u3002Edmund Burke: Reflections on the French Revolution\uff08J. M. Dent & Sons Ltd,1910\uff09\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

34\u3001\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u4e25\u683c\u8bf4\u6765\uff0c\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6b63\u7edf\u7684\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u65e0\u7591\u662f\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u6025\u5267\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u201d\u201c\u6cd5\u56fd\u9769\u547d\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u534a\u4e16\u7eaa\u91cc\uff0c\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u653f\u6cbb\u4e2d\u4e00\u76f4\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u5174\u8d77\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\uff09\u7684\u5bf9\u7acb\u9762\u662f\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u201dFriedlich A. Hayek: \u201cThe Constitution of Liberty\u201d,p397(The University of Chicago Press,1978\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

35\u3001\u53c2\u89c1Louis I. Bredvold and Ralph G. Ross\uff08\uff25\uff44\uff0e\uff09\uff1aPhilosophy of Edmund Burke\uff1a a Selection from His Speeches and Writings\uff0cpp.156-208\uff1bJohn Mac Cunn:\u3000Political philosophy of Burke\uff0cpp.68-84(Edward Arnold, 1913)\uff1b\u5218\u519b\u5b81\u300a\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u300b\uff0c\u7b2c161-206\u9875\uff08\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c1998\u5e74\uff09\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u53e5\uff0c\u5218\u519b\u5b81\u662f\u897f\u65b9\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u9610\u91ca\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u672c\u4eba\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5e76\u4e0d\u6301\u6e10\u8fdb\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u53c2\u89c1\u5218\u519b\u5b81\u300a\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u4e4b\u540e\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u6539\u9769\u5230\u6539\u5236\u300b\uff08http:\/\/174.133.64.220\/hero\/liujn\/25_1.shtml\uff09<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

36\u3001\u53c2\u89c1GARETH WILLIAMS\uff1a\u201c HAYEK\u2019S CRITIQUE OF CONSTRUCTIVISM: A LIBERTARIAN APP.RAISAL\u201d\uff08http:\/\/www.libertarian.co.uk\/lapubs\/econn\/econn085.pdf\uff09\uff1bMadsen Pirie\uff1a\u201c WHY F A HAYEK IS A CONSERVATIVE\u201d\uff08Adam Smith Institute\uff0c1987. http:\/\/adamsmith.org\/files\/HayekConservative.pdf\uff09\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

37\u3001\u8f83\u65e9\u7684\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u674e\u6cfd\u539a\u5728\u300a\u544a\u522b\u9769\u547d\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u4e24\u6b21\u63d0\u5230\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u3001\u6ce2\u666e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5176\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u826f\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8bba\u636e\u3002\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1\u8be5\u4e66293\u9875\u3001303\u9875\u3002\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\u76f8\u5f53\u591a\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u4e00\u4e00\u6574\u7406\u3002\u8fd1\u4e9b\u5e74\u8f83\u201c\u7cfb\u7edf\u201d\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u90b9\u5efa\u950b\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6e10\u8fdb\u6539\u9769\u5206\u6790\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u300b\uff08\u9999\u6e2f\u4e2d\u5927\u4e2d\u56fd\u7814\u7a76\u670d\u52a1\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c2003-10-21\u3002http:\/\/is.gd\/dtGGp)\uff1b
\u53f6\u957f\u8302\u300a\u81ea\u751f\u79e9\u5e8f\u89c6\u89d2\u4e0b\u653f\u6cbb\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u9009\u62e9\u300b\uff09\uff08\u300a\u5b66\u672f\u63a2\u7d22\u300b2009\u5e74\u7b2c3\u671f\uff09\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

38\u3001\u53c2\u89c1F. A. Hayek: \u201con Kinds of Order in Society\u201d (New Individualist Review, Vol.3, No.2,1960. \u7f51\u4e0a\u9605\u8bfb: <\/FONT>http:\/\/is.gd\/dtGC0<\/U><\/FONT><\/A>)\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e1960\u5e74\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u81ea\u751f\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9886\u57df\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u79cd\u81ea\u751f\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u8bf8\u5982\u8bed\u8a00\u3001\u6cd5\u5f8b\u2026\u2026\u7b49\u5236\u5ea6\u3001\u4e60\u60ef\u7684\u8fd0\u4f5c\u4e2d\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u4eec\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u660e\u663e\u662f\u7f13\u6162\u6f14\u5316\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u4e5f\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u79cd\u79cd\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u5173\u7cfb\u5fc5\u987b\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u81ea\u751f\u81ea\u65b0\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u65ad\u91cd\u5efa\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u6761\u4ef6\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u6f14\u5316\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u3002\u201d\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u54c8\u8036\u514b\uff0c\u8bed\u8a00\u3001\u6cd5\u5f8b\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u81ea\u751f\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9886\u57df\u3002\u4f46\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6307\u7684\u662f\u6c11\u4e8b\u6cd5\u3001\u5211\u4e8b\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u867d\u7136\u662f\u5efa\u6784\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u8fd0\u4f5c\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u81ea\u751f\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u8865\u5145\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

\u5173\u4e8e\u81ea\u751f\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e0e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u533a\u522b\u4e0e\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u54c8\u8036\u514b\u540e\u6765\u53c8\u505a\u4e86\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u9610\u91ca\uff0c\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1Law , Legislation and Liberty, Vol.3, pp.45-54(Routledge, 1973)\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

39\u3001F. A. Hayek: The Fatal Conceit, p37, in W. W. Baitley, III (ed.): the Collected Works of Friedrich August Hayek(Routledge,1988). <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

40\u3001\u53c2\u89c1Friedlich A. Hayek: Law , Legislation and Liberty, Vol.3, pp.105-127(Routledge, 1973) <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

41\u3001Karl Popp.er \uff1aThe Poverty of Historicism, II.\uff08Economica, New Series, Vol. 11, No. 43 (Aug., 1944), pp.119-137\uff09\u3002\u6ce2\u666e\u300a\u5386\u53f2\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u7684\u8d2b\u56f0\u300b\uff08The Poverty of Historicism\uff091944\u5e74\u52063\u6b21\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u201cEconomica\u201d\u4e0a\uff0c1957\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u6210\u4e66\u3002\u53c2\u89c1\u8be5\u4e66\u4e2d\u6587\u7248\u7b2c51\uff0d52\u9875\uff08\u675c\u6c5d\u696b\u3001\u90b1\u4ec1\u5b97\u8bd1\uff0c1987\u5e74\uff09\u3002\u5728\u8be5\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u96f6\u661f\u793e\u4f1a\u5de5\u7a0b\u201d\uff08piecemeal social engineering \uff09\u88ab\u8bd1\u6210\u201c\u6e10\u8fdb\u793e\u4f1a\u5de5\u7a0b\u201d\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

42\u3001\u53c2\u89c1\u5361\u5c14•\u6ce2\u666e\u300a\u5386\u53f2\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u7684\u8d2b\u56f0\u300b\uff08\u675c\u6c5d\u696b\u3001\u90b1\u4ec1\u5b97\u8bd1\uff09\uff0c\u7b2c50\uff0d73\u9875\uff1bThe Poverty of Historicism, II.\uff08in Economica, 1944\uff09; Open Society and its Enemies, pp.138-148 of Vol. I, and pp.135-134 of Vol. II (Routledge, 1944);John Gray: The Liberalism of Karl Popp.er (Government and Opposition, Vol. II, No. 3, Summer, 1976). <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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\u201c\u96f6\u661f\u793e\u4f1a\u5de5\u7a0b\u201d\uff08piecemeal social engineering \uff09\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u90a3\u91cc\u88ab\u8bd1\u6210\u201c\u6e10\u8fdb\u793e\u4f1a\u5de5\u7a0b\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e76\u4e0d\u8d34\u5207\u7684\u7ffb\u8bd1\u3002\u201c\u96f6\u661f\u793e\u4f1a\u5de5\u7a0b\u201d\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u6e10\u8fdb\u5de5\u7a0b\u3002\u5f53\u96f6\u661f\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8fdc\u5927\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u4ece\u4e8b\u7684\u662f\u6e10\u8fdb\u5de5\u7a0b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u53ea\u662f\u8981\u5b8c\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u9879\u7684\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u5176\u5de5\u7a0b\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u662f\u6e10\u8fdb\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u9700\u8981\u5206\u89e3\u6210\u66f4\u5c0f\u7684\u96f6\u661f\u5de5\u7a0b\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u679c\u9519\u4e86\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

44\u3001Karl Popper: Open Society and its Enemies, Vol. I, p111. <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

45\u3001\u540c\u4e0a\u4e66\uff0cp110\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

46\u3001\u53c2\u89c1John Gray: The Liberalism of Karl Popper. <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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50\u3001\u8d3a\u536b\u65b9\u3001\u5f20\u535a\u6811\u3001\u987e\u6653\u519b\u662f\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u5c11\u89c1\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u516c\u5f00\u8981\u6c42\u8d70\u5411\u591a\u515a\u5236\u3001\u89e3\u9664\u7ed3\u793e\u7ec4\u515a\u9650\u5236\u3001\u5141\u8bb8\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u5f20\u535a\u6811\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u524d\u9762\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ecb\u7ecd\u8fc7\u30022006\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u8d3a\u536b\u65b9\u5728\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u65b0\u897f\u5c71\u4f1a\u8bae\u201d\u7684\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u8c08\u5230\u4e86\u591a\u515a\u5236\uff0c\u5e76\u6279\u8bc4\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\u767b\u8bb0\u6ce8\u518c\uff0c\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u54cd\uff08\u53c2\u89c1\u300a\u8d3a\u536b\u65b9\u5728\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u6539\u9769\u8d70\u52bf\u201d\uff08\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u65b0\u897f\u5c71\u4f1a\u8bae\u201d\uff09\u5ea7\u8c08\u4f1a\u4e0a\u7684\u53d1\u8a00\u300b\uff1ahttp:\/\/is.gd\/dtGcv\uff09\u3002\u4f5c\u5bb6\u987e\u6653\u519b2010\u5e745\u6708\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u535a\u5ba2\u4e0a\u64b0\u6587\u547c\u5401\u57f9\u517b\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\uff0c\u4e5f\u5907\u53d7\u77a9\u76ee\uff08\u53c2\u89c1\u987e\u6653\u519b\u300a\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u3001\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u662f\u904f\u5236\u8150\u8d25\u7684\u82e6\u53e3\u826f\u836f\u300b\uff1ahttp:\/\/is.gd\/dtGxy\uff09\u3002\u6240\u6709\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5206\u5b50\u90fd\u5bf9\u4e00\u515a\u4e13\u5236\u4e0d\u6ee1\uff0c\u4f46\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u53ea\u542b\u7cca\u7b3c\u7edf\u5730\u8c08\u8bba\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u56de\u907f\u76f4\u63a5\u660e\u786e\u6d89\u53ca\u591a\u515a\u5236\u3001\u515a\u7981\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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53\u3001\u53c2\u89c1Michael Ochs\uff1a\u201cTurkmenistan: the quest for stability and control\u201d, in Karen Dawisha and Bruce Parrott: Conflict, Cleavage, and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus (Democratization and Authoritarianism in Post-Communist Societies) ,pp.312-313(Cambridge University Press , 1997)\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

54\u3001\u540c\u4e0a\uff0cp313\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

55\u3001\u540c\u4e0a\uff0cp323\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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57\u3001\u53c2\u89c1Jason Brownlee\uff1a\u201cThe Decline of Pluralism in Mubarak\\’s Egypt\u201d\uff08Journal of Democracy 13.4 (2002) 6-14\uff09\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

58\u3001\u53c2\u89c1Daniel Brumberg\uff1a\u201cThe Trap of Liberalized Autocracy\u201d\uff08Journal of Democracy 13.4 (2002) 56-68\uff09\uff1bAmr Hamzawy\u3000\uff1a\u201cGradualism of Reform and Traditional Politics\u201d\uff08http:\/\/is.gd\/dvj3M\uff09\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

59\u3001\u53c2\u89c1Daniel Brumberg\uff1a\u201cThe Trap of Liberalized Autocracy\u201d\uff08Journal of Democracy 13.4 (2002) \uff1bLarry Diamond: \u201cThinking about Hybrid Regimes\u201d( Journal of Democracy Volume 13, Number 2 April 2002)\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

60\u3001\u53c2\u89c1Daniel Brumberg\uff1a\u201cThe Trap of Liberalized Autocracy\u201d\uff08Journal of Democracy 13.4 (2002)\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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