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democracies\uff09\uff0c\u5c5e\u4e8e\u201c\u90e8\u5206\u81ea\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\uff08partly free\uff09\u8303\u7574(\u6ce86)\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u6743\u5229\u7684\u83b7\u5f97\u4e3a\u5176\u5b83\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u3001\u4fdd\u62a4\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u524d\u63d0\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e0d\u5d29\u6e83\u3001\u4e0d\u5012\u9000\u56de\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u4f53\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u524d\u666f\u662f\u8fdc\u5927\u7684\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P class=indent><FONT size=3>\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u5174\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5dee\u5f02\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u6709\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6c34\u5e73\u76f8\u5f53\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u97e9\u56fd\u3001\u897f\u73ed\u7259\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u5219\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4f4e\u5f97\u60ca\u4eba\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8d1d\u5b81\u3001\u9a6c\u91cc\u7b49\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8f6c\u578b\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\u7f16\u8f91\u62c9\u91cc&#8226;\u6234\u8499\uff08Larry 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size=3>\uff08\u672a\u5b8c\u5f85\u7eed\uff09 <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>\u6ce8\u89e3\uff1a <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>1\u3001\u672c\u8bba\u6587\u4e3b\u8981\u57fa\u4e8e\u6211\u5728\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u4eba\u6743\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff082008.1-4\u30012008.7-2009.7\uff09\u3001\u897f\u5317\u5927\u5b66\u7f57\u8d1d\u5854&#8226;\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u56fd\u9645\u4e0e\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff082008.4-7\uff09\u3001\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u6cd5\u5b66\u9662\u4e9a\u7f8e\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff082009.9-2010.7\uff09\u6240\u505a\u7684\u9605\u8bfb\u3001\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5199\u4f5c\u5f00\u59cb\u4e8e\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u6cd5\u5b66\u9662\u4e9a\u7f8e\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u3002\u5b66\u8005\u62a2\u6551\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\uff08Scholar Rescue Fund\uff09\u4e0e\u63a5\u6536\u6211\u7684\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e09\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\u5171\u540c\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u8bbf\u95ee\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5f00\u653e\u793e\u4f1a\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08Open Society Institute\uff09\u4e3a\u62112009\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u5728\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u8bbf\u95ee\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u652f\u6301\u3002\u53d7\u96be\u5b66\u8005\u673a\u6784\uff08Scholars at Risk\uff092007\u5e74\u590f\u5b63\u5411\u5b66\u8005\u62a2\u6551\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u63d0\u540d\u4e86\u6211\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u62112010\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u5728\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u652f\u6301\u3002\u5728\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u5e76\u5411\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6240\u6709\u673a\u6784\u8868\u793a\u611f\u8c22\u3002\u8fd8\u8981\u7279\u522b\u611f\u8c22\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u9ece\u5b89\u53cb\u6559\u6388\uff08Andrew Nathan\uff09\u3001\u53f8\u9a6c\u7f19(James D. Seymour)\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u897f\u5317\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u80af\u5c3c\u65af&#8226;\u7b80\u8fbe(Kenneth Janda)\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u5b54\u6770\u8363 (Jerome Cohen)\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6211\u7684\u8bbf\u95ee\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u4f1a\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4f46\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u5199\u4f5c\u662f\u6211\u72ec\u81ea\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e0d\u8db3\u548c\u8c2c\u8bef\u53ea\u80fd\u5f52\u8d23\u4e8e\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u3002 <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>2\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6Adam Przeworski\u8bba\u8ff0\u8fc7\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e13\u5236\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u6b63\u5f53\u6027\u5371\u673a\u4e0d\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5145\u5206\u6761\u4ef6\u4ee5\u53ca\u6c11\u4e3b\u5982\u4f55\u6210\u4e3a\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u53ef\u66ff\u4ee3\u6027\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u53c2\u89c1Adam Przeworski, \u201cSome Problems in the Study of Transition to Democracy\u201d, in Guillermo O\u2019Donnell and Philipp.e C. Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives (The Johns Hopkins University Press,1986)\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>3\u3001\u5728\u534e\u4eba\u5b66\u8005\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u65e9\u63d0\u51fa\u5efa\u7acb\u6c11\u4e3b\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66\u7684\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u4efb\u6559\u4e8e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684\u5434\u56fd\u5149\u6559\u6388\u3002\u53c2\u89c1\u5434\u56fd\u5149\u300a\u6784\u9020\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66\u201d\uff1a\u518d\u8bba\u201c\u53bf\u653f\u4e2d\u56fd\u201d\u300b\uff0chttp:\/\/www.xschina.org\/show.php?id=9157\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>4\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u585e\u7f2a\u5c14&#8226;\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\uff08Samuel P. Huntington\uff0990\u5e74\u4ee3\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u547d\u540d\u4e3a\u201c\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u201d\uff0c\u88ab\u4eba\u4eec\u666e\u904d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u4ea8\u5ef7\u987f\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u662f\u5206\u51e0\u6ce2\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce2\u548c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6ce2\u5206\u522b\u53d1\u751f\u57281828-1926\u5e74\u30011943-1962\u5e74\u3002\u53c2\u89c1Samuel Hungtington\uff0c\u201cThe Third Wave\uff1aDemocratization in the Late Twentieth Century\u201d(University of Oklahoma Press),1991, pp.13-26\u3002\u8be5\u4e66\u4e2d\u6587\u7248\u7531\u5218\u519b\u5b81\u5148\u751f\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff0c\u4e0a\u6d77\u4e09\u8054\u51fa\u7248\u793e1998\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT 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size=3>5\u3001\u8be5\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81ea\u603b\u90e8\u5728\u7ebd\u7ea6\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u8457\u540d\u667a\u5e93\u201c\u81ea\u7531\u4e4b\u5bb6\u201d\uff08Freedom House\uff0chttp:\/\/www.freedomhouse.org\uff092002\u5e74\u7684\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u81ea\u7531\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff08Freedom in the World: The Annual Survey of Political and Civil Rights\uff09\u3002\u201c\u81ea\u7531\u4e4b\u5bb6\u201d\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u662f\u8f6c\u578b\u653f\u6cbb\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u5176\u8bc4\u4f30\u4f53\u7cfb\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\uff0c\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1\u672c\u6587\u7b2c8\u7ae0\u201c\u5f53\u524d\u81ea\u7531\u72b6\u51b5\u201d\u5c0f\u8282\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT 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liberties\uff09\u201d\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u201c\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u201c\u90e8\u5206\u81ea\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u201c\u90e8\u5206\u81ea\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\u90fd\u662f\u201c\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u9a6c\u6765\u897f\u4e9a\u5c31\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d\u30022008\u5e74\uff0c\u6709121\u4e2a\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d88\u4e2a\u662f\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u53c2\u89c1\u201c\u81ea\u7531\u4e4b\u5bb6\u201d\u7684\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u81ea\u7531\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff08Freedom in the World: The Annual Survey of Political and Civil Rights\uff09\u3002\u201c\u81ea\u7531\u4e4b\u5bb6\u201d2002\u5e74\u540e\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5176\u7f51\u7ad9\uff08http:\/\/www.freedomhouse.org\uff09\u4e0a\u9605\u8bfb\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>7\u3001\u53c2\u89c1Larry Diamond\uff0c The Spirit of Democracy (Henry Holt and Company),2008,App.endix, Table 3, Regimes Types of Least Developed States,2006. \u6234\u8499\u8bf4\uff0c\u572857\u4e2a\u4f4e\u6216\u4e2d\u4f4e\u53d1\u5c55\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u670927\u4e2a\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0847%\uff09\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u7ea6\u67097\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6709\u4e9b\u6a21\u7cca\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u548c\u516c\u6b63\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u603b\u4f53\u653f\u6cbb\u73af\u5883\u6709\u4e9b\u53ef\u7591\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>8\u3001\u53c2\u89c1Seymour Martin Lipset\uff0c\u201cSome Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy\u201d, American Political Science Review 53,No.1(1959)\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>9\u3001\u540c\u4e0a\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>10\u3001Robert Alan Dahl, Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition(Yale University Press , 1972), pp.208-209.\u8f6c\u5f15\u81eaLarry Diamond\uff0cThe Spirit of Democracy\uff0cp10.<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>11\u3001Larry Diamond\uff0cThe Spirit of Democracy\uff0cpp.10-11.<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>12\u3001\u540c\u4e0a\u4e66\uff0cp11\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>13\u3001Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man\uff08Free Press\uff0c1992\uff09\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>14\u3001\u53c2\u89c1Dankwart A. Rustow, \u201cTransitions to democracy: Toward a dynamic model\u201d, Comparative Politics 2 (April,1970): 337-363\u3002Rustow\u88ab\u8a89\u4e3a\u201c\u8f6c\u578b\u5b66\u201d\u4e4b\u7236\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3001\u5206\u6790\u89c6\u89d2\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5174\u8d77\u4e4b\u540e\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u63a5\u53d7\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>15\u3001O\u2019Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies(The Johns Hopkins University Press,1986),p7. <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>16\u30012010\u5e748\u6708\uff0c\u5728\u4e0e\u4e00\u4f4d\u53f0\u6e7e\u524d\u653f\u8981\u4ea4\u8c08\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\uff0c1986\u5e74\u6c11\u8fdb\u515a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u996d\u5e97\u5ba3\u5e03\u6210\u7acb\u540e\uff0c\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u9ad8\u5c42\u8ba8\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\u9547\u538b\uff0c\u848b\u7ecf\u56fd\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u53f0\u4e0a\u6267\u653f\u7684\u4e07\u5e74\u653f\u515a\u3002\u56fd\u6c11\u515a\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u6c11\u8fdb\u515a\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u9ed8\u8ba4\uff0c\u662f\u53f0\u6e7e\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\u3002<\/FONT><\/P>\r\n<P><FONT size=3>17\u30011989\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u96c5\u9c81\u6cfd\u5c14\u65af\u57fa\u5728\u6ce2\u5170\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u4e2d\u592e\u5168\u4f1a\u4e0a\u63d0\u8bae\u4e0e\u56e2\u7ed3\u5de5\u4f1a\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u906d\u5230\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u4ed6\u4e0e\u5185\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u4e00\u8d77\u63d0\u51fa\u8f9e\u804c\uff0c\u8d70\u51fa\u4e86\u4f1a\u8bae\u5ba4\u3002<\/FONT><\/P><\/DIV><\/DIV><\/DIV><!-- \/node-inner, \/node --><\/DIV><!-- \/#content-area-->\r\n<DIV id=content-bottom class=\\\"region region-content_bottom\\\">\r\n<DIV id=block-block-10 class=\\\"block block-block region-odd odd region-count-1 count-13\\\">\r\n<DIV class=block-inner>\r\n<DIV class=content>\r\n<DIV id=copyrightfooter><FONT size=3>\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6743\u53cc\u5468\u520a\u300b\u9996\u53d1\uff0c\u8f6c\u8f7d\u8bf7\u6ce8\u660e\u51fa\u5904:<BR><\/FONT><A href=\\\"http:\/\/biweekly.hrichina.org\/article\/766\\\"><U><FONT color=#800080 size=3>http:\/\/biweekly.hrichina.org\/article\/766<\/FONT><\/U><\/A><FONT size=3> <\/FONT><\/DIV><\/DIV><\/DIV><\/DIV><!-- \/block-inner, \/block --><\/DIV><!-- \/#content-bottom -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7b2c\u4e00\u7ae0 \u5f15\u8a00\uff1a\u7b80\u8bba\u5efa\u7acb\u6c11\u4e3b\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66 \u4e00\u3001\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u56f0\u60d1 \u4e2d\u56fd\u6b63\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6ce2\u4e89\u53d6\u6c11\u4e3b\u5171\u548c\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4e8b [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20345","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-thought","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20345","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20345"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20345\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20345"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20345"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20345"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}