{"id":21787,"date":"2011-08-13T14:56:00","date_gmt":"2011-08-13T14:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=21787 "},"modified":"2011-08-13T14:56:00","modified_gmt":"2011-08-13T14:56:00","slug":"21787-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=21787","title":{"rendered":"\u674e\u9149\u6f6d\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u9014\u5f84"},"content":{"rendered":"

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2011\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u8457\u540d\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7“\u81ea\u7531\u4e4b\u5bb6”\uff08Freedom House\uff09\u521a\u53d1\u8868\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5176\u6807\u9898\u4e3a\u300a\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u6311\u6218\u300b\uff08The Authoritarian Challenge to Democracy\uff09\uff0c\u5f00\u5b97\u660e\u4e49\u4fbf\u6307\u51fa\uff1a“\u5168\u7403\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u57282010\u5e74\u4e3a\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e94\u5e74\u5012\u9000\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u8be5\u8c03\u67e5\u8fd1\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u8fde\u7eed\u8870\u9000\u6700\u4e45\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u81ea\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08free countries\uff09\u4e0e\u9009\u4e3e\u5f0f\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08electoral democracies\uff09\u7684\u6570\u76ee\u6301\u7eed\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u4e0e\u5317\u975e\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e5f\u5168\u9762\u6076\u5316\u5f53\u4e2d”\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u5f0f\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6570\u76ee\u4ece2005\u5e74\u7684123\u4e2a\u964d\u4e3a2010\u5e74\u7684115\u4e2a\uff0c\u4e14\u662f1995\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6570\u76ee\u3002\u81ea\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6570\u76ee\u5219\u4ece2009\u5e74\u768489\u4e2a\u964d\u4e3a87\u4e2a\u3002\uff08\u6ce81\uff09<\/font><\/p>\r\n

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1\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u9014\u5f84\u7406\u8bba<\/font><\/p>\r\n

\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u63a2\u8ba8\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u9014\u5f84\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6587\u732e\u4f17\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u4e2d\u80fd\u63d0\u51fa\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u5be5\u5be5\u53ef\u6570\uff0cPotter\uff0cGoldblatt\uff0cKiloh and Lewis\u7684Democratization\u4e00\u4e66\u662f\u63a2\u8ba8\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u539f\u56e0\u540c\u7c7b\u4e66\u4e2d\u7684\u4f7c\u4f7c\u8005\u3002\u8be5\u4e66\u63d0\u51fa\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u4e09\u79cd\u9014\u5f84\uff1a(1)\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u9014\u5f84\uff1a\u4ee3\u8868\u5b66\u8005\u4e3aSeymour Martin Lipset\uff0c\u8be5\u9014\u5f84\u5f3a\u8c03\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6210\u529f\u7684\u8981\u7d20\u4e2d\u793e\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9762\u5411\u7684\u8981\u7d20\uff1b(2)\u8f6c\u578b\u9014\u5f84\uff0c\u8be5\u9014\u5f84\u5f3a\u8c03\u4ece\u653f\u6cbb\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u653f\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u7684\u4e3b\u52a8\u4e0e\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5b66\u8005\u4e3aDankwart A. Rustow\uff1b(3)\u7ed3\u6784\u9014\u5f84\uff0c\u6b64\u9014\u5f84\u6240\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u7126\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\u6743\u529b\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u53d8\u8fc1\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6210\u529f\u4e0e\u5426\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5b66\u8005\u4e3aBrington Moore\uff08Potter\uff0cGoldblatt\uff0cKiloh and Lewis\uff0c1997\uff09\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c2002\u5e74Michael McFaul\u5728World Politics\u671f\u520a\u6240\u53d1\u8868\u7684“The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Noncooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World”\u4e00\u6587\u5f53\u4e2d\u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u91ca\u540e\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u6743\u53d8\u8fc1\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u56db\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u9014\u5f84\u53bb\u89e3\u91ca\u5176\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff1a\u901a\u5f80\u653f\u6743\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u9014\u5f84 (cooperative approaches to regime change)\uff1b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u975e\u5408\u4f5c\u6a21\u5f0f (a noncooperative model of transition)\uff1b\u540e\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u6743\u53d8\u8fc1\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8def\u5f84(causal paths of postcommunist regime change)\uff1b\u89e3\u91ca\u5f02\u5e38\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a\u8fb9\u754c\u548c“\u897f\u65b9\u4e16\u754c”(explaining anomalies: borders and the “West”)\uff0c\u5176\u7ed3\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a“\u7b2c\u56db\u6ce2”\u7684\u653f\u6743\u53d8\u8fc1\u4e0e“\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2”\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8fde\u8f6c\u578b\u540e\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4f53\u5236\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

\u800c\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u5982\u4f55\u4ea7\u751f\uff1f\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u4f53\u53c8\u4f55\u4ee5\u8f6c\u578b\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\uff1f\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0e\u53d8\u6570\u4e3a\u4f55\uff1f\u90fd\u662f\u5b66\u672f\u793e\u7fa4\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8bae\u9898\u3002Larry Diamond\u4ece“\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u52a8\u529b”\u6b64\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4ece“\u5185\u5728”\uff08internal\uff09\u4e0e“\u5916\u5728”\uff08external\uff09\u4e24\u4e2a\u9014\u5f84\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002Diamond\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u5206\u88c2\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u5a01\u6743\u6574\u4f53\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff1b\uff083\uff09\u81ea\u7531\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u840c\u82bd\uff1b\uff084\uff09\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u6700\u91cd\u8981“\u5185\u5728”\u53d8\u6570\uff08Larry Diamond\uff0c2008\uff1a88-106\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff081\uff09\u4f20\u64ad\u4e0e\u793a\u8303\u6548\u679c\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u548c\u5e73\u538b\u529b\uff1b\uff083\uff09\u5236\u88c1\u7684\u9650\u5236\u4e0e\u63f4\u52a9\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\uff1b\uff084\uff09\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u534f\u52a9\uff1b\uff085\uff09\u4ee5\u6b66\u529b\u63a8\u52a8\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u7684“\u5916\u5728”\u53d8\u6570\uff08Larry Diamond\uff0c2008\uff1a106-135\uff09\u3002\u5185\u5728\u53d8\u6570\u5f3a\u8c03\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u4f53\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u83c1\u82f1\u6743\u529b\u4e92\u52a8\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u76f8\u5173\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u7b49\u9762\u5411\uff0c\u7740\u91cd“\u5fae\u89c2”\u4e0e”\u5236\u5ea6\u5185\u751f\u6027”\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff1b\u5916\u5728\u53d8\u6570\u5f3a\u8c03\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u6269\u6563\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u5782\u8303\u6548\u679c\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8f6f\u6027\u4e0e\u786c\u6027\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u7740\u91cd\u7684\u662f“\u5b8f\u89c2”\u4e0e“\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u8fc1”\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

2\u3001Huntington\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e0e\u6a21\u5f0f<\/font><\/p>\r\n

\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u4e4b\u67b6\u6784\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d1\u751f\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0cHuntington\u7684\u300a\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u300b\uff08The Third Wave\uff1aDemocratization in the Late Twentieth Century\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u4e43\u662f\u516c\u8ba4\u7814\u7a76\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u8457\u4f5c\u3002\u672c\u4e66\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790\u9020\u6210\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u51e0\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u76f8\u4e92\u6fc0\u8361\u4e0b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5404\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u800c\u8d70\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4f53\u9002\u7528\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f (Huntington\uff0c1991\uff1a38-39) \u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0cHuntington\u4ecd\u5f52\u7eb3\u51fa\u9020\u621070\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e0e80\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ea7\u751f\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u8bf8\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5217\u516d\u9879\u56e0\u7d20\u6700\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981 (Huntington\uff0c1991\uff1a46-108) \uff1a<\/font><\/p>\r\n

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(3) \u81ea\u7531\u5316\u7684\u5931\u8d25: \u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e0d\u5fc5\u7136\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u5e06\u98ce\u987a\u7684\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u4f1a\u906d\u9047\u5230\u4e0d\u540c\u56e2\u4f53\u63d0\u51fa\u538b\u5236\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u906d\u5230\u53cd\u6c11\u4e3b\u52bf\u529b\u7684\u53cd\u6251\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

(4) \u538b\u5236\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e:\u83b7\u5f97\u6743\u529b\u4f7f\u5f97\u6539\u9769\u6d3e\u80fd\u591f\u5f00\u59cb\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u4e0d\u80fd\u6d88\u9664\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u5411\u6539\u9769\u6d3e\u6311\u6218\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6539\u9769\u6d3e\u9886\u8896\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u8981\u52a1\u5e38\u5e38\u662f\u8083\u6e05\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u519b\u961f\uff0c\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u8bdd\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u515a\u52a1\u5b98\u50da\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u518d\u4ee5\u6539\u9769\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\u6765\u53d6\u4ee3\u9ad8\u7ea7\u5b98\u5458\u4e2d\u7684\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

(5) \u4e0e\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u5408\u4f5c:\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6539\u9769\u6d3e\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u9886\u8896\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u56e2\u4f53\u8fdb\u884c\u78cb\u5546\uff0c\u4f7f\u53d8\u9769\u8fc7\u7a0b\u66f4\u52a0\u987a\u5229\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u66ff\u6362<\/font><\/p>\r\n

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(1) \u4e3a\u63a8\u7ffb\u653f\u6743\u800c\u6597\u4e89:\u7531\u4e8e\u653f\u6743\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u6539\u9769\u6d3e\u592a\u5f31\u5c0f\uff0c\u6216\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u5fc5\u987b\u7ed3\u5408\u5176\u4ed6\u53cd\u6297\u65e2\u6709\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u6743\u7684\u56e2\u4f53\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u8db3\u4ee5\u4e0e\u653f\u5e9c\u5185\u90e8\u4e4b\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u8fdb\u884c\u6297\u8861\u7684\u4e00\u80a1\u52bf\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u5b9e\u8df5\u63a8\u7ffb\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u7406\u60f3\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

(2) \u653f\u6743\u7684\u57ae\u53f0:\u5f53\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u7684\u52bf\u529b\u65e5\u6e10\u5f3a\u5927\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u8fdb\u884c\u63a8\u7ffb\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u900f\u8fc7\u519b\u4e8b\u653f\u53d8\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u900f\u8fc7\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5b9a\u671f\u63a5\u73ed\u6216\u7f62\u9edc\u884c\u52a8\u6765\u5b9e\u8df5\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

(3) \u57ae\u53f0\u540e\u7684\u6597\u4e89:\u5728\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u5e9c\u57ae\u53f0\u540e\uff0c\u6539\u9769\u6d3e\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u5c3d\u5feb\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u586b\u8865\u5f53\u65f6\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6743\u529b\u771f\u7a7a\uff0c\u5e76\u79ef\u6781\u5bfb\u6c42\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6539\u9769\u6d3e\u5185\u90e8\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u89d2\u9010\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u6297\u4e89\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u900f\u8fc7\u534f\u5546\u6765\u5316\u89e3\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

\uff08\u4e09\uff09\u79fb\u8f6c<\/font><\/p>\r\n

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\u800c\u4ed6\u5728\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e2d\u7279\u522b\u6307\u51fa“\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4f7f\u5f97\u6c11\u4e3b\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u9886\u5bfc\u4f7f\u5f97\u6c11\u4e3b\u6210\u4e3a\u771f\u5b9e\u3002\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u6700\u4f4e\u9650\u5ea6\u5fc5\u987b\u76f8\u4fe1\u6c11\u4e3b\u4f53\u5236\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6700\u597d\u7684\u653f\u4f53\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u540c\u6837\u5fc5\u987b\u5177\u5907\u9ad8\u660e\u7684\u624b\u6cd5\u6765\u5b8c\u6210\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u65e2\u9632\u60a3\u6fc0\u8fdb\u6d3e\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u9632\u60a3\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u90fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u3002”\uff08Huntington\uff0c1991\uff1a316\uff09<\/font><\/p>\r\n

\u4e09\u3001Huntington\u7406\u8bba\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u518d\u68c0\u8ba8<\/font><\/p>\r\n

\u4e0d\u8bba\u662f\u5185\u5728\u6216\u5916\u5728\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u81f3\u4eca\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u64bc\u52a8\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e13\u5236\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u4e2d\u56fd\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\u4e0d\u4f46\u4e0d\u89c1\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u663e\u793a\u5176\u7a33\u5b9a\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u7279\u8272\uff0cAndrew Nathan (2003) \u63d0\u51fa\u97e7\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236 (resilient authoritarianism) \u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u6709\u522b\u4e8e\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u7279\u8d28\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u501f\u7531\u653f\u6cbb\u7ee7\u627f\u7684\u89c4\u8303\u5316\u3001\u5e38\u89c4\u5316\u9650\u5236\u6d3e\u7cfb\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u5206\u6b8a\u4e0e\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\u3001\u5efa\u5236\u5316\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u8f93\u5165\u7b49\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u9014\u5f84\uff0c\u5f97\u4ee5\u6301\u7eed\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u529b\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5230\u6765\u3002\u6797\u4f73\u9f99\u4e0e\u5f90\u65af\u4fed\u5728\u300a\u9000\u5316\u7684\u6781\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u57282002\u5e74\u4e2d\u5171\u53ec\u5f00\u7b2c\u5341\u516d\u5c4a\u5168\u56fd\u515a\u4ee3\u8868\u5927\u4f1a\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f53\u5236\u5df2\u8f6c\u578b\u4e3a\u6781\u6743\u4e0e\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u6df7\u5408\u4f53\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u4e4b\u79f0\u4e3a“\u9000\u5316\u7684\u6781\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49”(degenerative totalitarianism)\u3002\u5b83\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e0a\u4ecd\u4fdd\u6709\u6781\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u8fd0\u4f5c\u4e0a\u5374\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u76f8\u5f53\u591a\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8272\u5f69\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u65e0\u8bba\u4ece\u82cf\u8054\u6216\u4e1c\u6b27\u5171\u4ea7\u653f\u6743\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u9000\u5316\u6781\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u5e76\u65e0\u81ea\u53d1\u800c\u6e10\u8fdb\u5730\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6849\u4f8b (\u6797\u4f73\u9f99\u3001\u5f90\u65af\u4fed\uff0c2003\uff1a17-19) \u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

1\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316──\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u80fd\u4ece\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u5f00\u59cb<\/font><\/p>\r\n

\u90a3\u4e48\u4e2d\u56fd\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u8d70\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5462\uff1f\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u5927\u81f4\u4e0a\u7686\u4f1a\u5148\u533a\u522b\u81ea\u7531\u5316\uff08liberalization\uff09\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff08democratization\uff09\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

\u5b66\u8005\u53f2\u8fea\u6f58\uff08Alfred Stepan\uff09\u4e8e1988\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u6e05\u695a\u7684\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e8e1996\u5e74\u4e0e\u6797\u5179\uff08Juan J. Linz\uff09\u5728\u4e00\u672c\u63a2\u8ba8\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u4e0e\u5de9\u56fa\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u540d\u8457\u4e2d\u91cd\u7533\u540c\u6837\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff1a\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u662f\u6307\u975e\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u673a\u5236\u4e4b\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f34\u968f\u4e00\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u53d8\u8fc1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6bd4\u8f83\u5c11\u7684\u5a92\u4f53\u68c0\u67e5\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u7ed9\u4e88\u81ea\u4e3b\u6027\u52b3\u5de5\u8fd0\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u5f15\u4ecb\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bf8\u5982\u4eba\u8eab\u4fdd\u62a4\u4ee4\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u9632\u536b\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u72af\uff0c\u8ba9\u88ab\u653e\u9010\u8005\u56de\u6765\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u6539\u8fdb\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u5bb9\u5fcd\u653f\u6cbb\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u9700\u8981\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u81ea\u7531\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4e5f\u66f4\u5177\u6709\u7279\u522b\u5730\u653f\u6cbb\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u9700\u8981\u516c\u5f00\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u6743\u5229\u4ee5\u8d62\u5f97\u63a7\u5236\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u81ea\u7531\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u5df2\u51b3\u5b9a\u8c01\u7edf\u6cbb\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u5f88\u660e\u663e\u5730\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u81ea\u7531\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff08Stepan\uff0c1988\uff1a6\uff1bLinz and Stepan\uff0c1996\uff1a3\uff09\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

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2\u3001Huntington\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u518d\u68c0\u8ba8<\/font><\/p>\r\n

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4\u3001\u738b\u5929\u6210\uff0c\u300a\u5927\u8f6c\u578b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6218\u7565\u7814\u7a76\u6846\u67b6\u300b\uff0c\uff08<\/font>http:\/\/biweekly.hrichina.org\/article\/1070<\/font><\/a>\uff09\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

5\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u9ad8\u5c42\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u5b9e\u65bd\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u7684\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u540e\u5371\u5bb3\u5230\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u4e0e\u5b89\u5371\uff0c\u6545\u66f4\u575a\u5b9a\u5730\u6210\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u5f3a\u786c\u6d3e\u3002\u66f4\u591a\u6709\u5173\u6d3e\u7cfb\u7684\u5206\u6790\u8bf7\u53c2\u8003\u738b\u5929\u6210\uff0c\u540c\u6ce84\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

6\u3001BBC\u4e2d\u6587\u7f51\uff0c\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ef4\u7a33\u7ecf\u8d39\u8d85\u8fc7\u56fd\u9632\u5f00\u652f\u300b\uff0c\uff08<\/font>http:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/zhongwen\/trad\/china\/2011\/03\/110307_china_securityspending.shtml<\/font><\/a>\uff09\u3002<\/font><\/p>\r\n

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\u9ece\u5b89\u53cb\uff08Andrew J. Nathan\uff09\u8457\uff0c\u4f55\u5927\u660e\u8bd1\uff082007\uff09\uff0c\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u53d8\u8fc1\u4e4b\u8def\u300b\uff0c\u53f0\u5317\uff1a\u5de8\u6d41\u56fe\u4e66\u516c\u53f8\u3002<\/font><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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