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\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cBruce Bueno De Mesquita\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\uff09\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7edf\u8ba1\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u6743\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u6709\u6548\u5730\u7ed9\u793e\u4f1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u516c\u5171\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u548c\u5e73\u4e0e\u7e41\u8363\uff1b\u6216\u662f\u5bfb\u79df\u8d2a\u8150\u76db\u884c\uff0c\u7279\u6743\u96c6\u56e2\u7ed1\u67b6\u516c\u76ca\uff0c\u662f\u7531“\u5236\u80dc\u8054\u76df”\uff08the winning coalition–W\uff09\u548c“\u9009\u62d4\u56e2”(the selectorate–S)\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u5927\u5c0f\u548c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6bd4\u503c(W\/S)\u5927\u5c0f\u6765\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff1aW\/S\u7684\u6bd4\u503c\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6cbb\u7406\u6548\u80fd\u5c31\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff1b\u6bd4\u503c\u8d8a\u5c0f\uff0c\u5219\u6cbb\u7406\u6548\u80fd\u5c31\u66f4\u5dee\u3002 \u5177\u4f53\u8bf4\u6765\uff0c\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5168\u4f53\u5408\u6cd5\u9009\u6c11\uff0818\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u6c11\uff09\u6784\u6210“\u9009\u62d4\u56e2”\uff08\u57282010\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u6709\u4e24\u4ebf\u4e00\u5343\u4e07\u5408\u683c\u9009\u6c11\uff09\uff1b\u800c“\u5236\u80dc\u8054\u76df”\u5c31\u662f\u53c2\u52a0\u6295\u7968\u7684\u9009\u6c11\uff0890,682,968\u4eba\uff09\u768450%\u52a0\u4e00\u7968\uff0845,341,484+1\uff09\u3002\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u6765\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c“\u9009\u62d4\u56e2”\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u540c\u65f6“\u5236\u80dc\u8054\u76df”\u4e5f\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8981\u60f3\u8d62\u5f97\u9009\u4e3e\u80dc\u5229\uff0c\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u548c\u653f\u515a\u5fc5\u987b\u53bb“\u8ba8\u597d”\u81f3\u5c11\u56db\u3001\u4e94\u5343\u4e07\u6295\u7968\u7684\u9009\u6c11\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8\u4e0d\u80fd\u6fc0\u6012\u8fd1\u4e00\u4ebf\u6ca1\u6709\u5174\u8da3\u6295\u7968\u7684\u9009\u6c11\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u8d3f\u8d42\u4e00\u4ebf\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5fc5\u987b\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u516c\u5171\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u9009\u4e3e\u80dc\u5229\u3002<\/div>
 <\/div>
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 <\/div>
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 <\/div>
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\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bf4\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u964d\u4f4e\u6cbb\u7406\u6210\u672c\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u6cbb\u7406\u6548\u80fd\u5462\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6267\u653f\u515a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u8d43\uff08\u5b98\u4f4d\u548c\u7269\u8d44\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u5956\u8d4f\uff09\u662f\u7ef4\u6301\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u5173\u952e\u3002\u800c\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u4e0d\u63a7\u5236\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u9886\u8896\u548c\u6210\u5458\u9996\u5148\u5fc5\u987b\u505a\u51fa\u7269\u8d28\u4e0a\u7684\u727a\u7272\uff1b\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u6cbb\u8fd0\u4f5c\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u4ed4\u7ec6\u8003\u8651\u6295\u5165\u4ea7\u51fa\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u8d44\u6e90\u5229\u7528\u7387\u4e0a\u80dc\u8fc7\u6267\u653f\u515a\uff0c\u624d\u4f1a\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u53d6\u80dc\u3002\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u532e\u4e4f\u53c8\u8981\u6c42\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u9886\u8896\u7684\u7d20\u8d28\u548c\u8fd0\u4f5c\u90fd\u9ad8\u8fc7\u6267\u653f\u515a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5bf9\u8363\u8a89\u3001\u540d\u58f0\u7684\u66f4\u5f3a\u70c8\u8ffd\u6c42\u6210\u4e3a\u8865\u507f\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u9886\u5bfc\u96c6\u56e2\u7269\u8d28\u727a\u7272\u4e00\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u3002\u5bf9\u9009\u6c11\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u516c\u5f00\u7684\u3001\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5e02\u573a\u624d\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\uff1b\u4ed6\u4eec\u624d\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u5f97\u5230\u7d20\u8d28\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001\u7269\u6b32\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\u3001\u529e\u4e8b\u8fd0\u4f5c\u6548\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001\u4ee3\u4ef7\u66f4\u5c0f\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u5e76\u4e0d\u6267\u653f\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6269\u5927\u5236\u80dc\u96c6\u56e2\uff0c\u903c\u8feb\u6267\u653f\u515a\u5173\u5fc3\u516c\u5171\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u53c8\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u7528\u7eb3\u7a0e\u4eba\u8d1f\u62c5\u7684\u4e49\u52a1\u76d1\u7763\u5458\u3002\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u5982\u6b64\u7684\u5999\u7528\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u4e0d\u60dc\u7ed9\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u652f\u4ed8\u85aa\u4ff8\uff0c\u6276\u6301\u4e00\u4e2a“\u82f1\u738b\u965b\u4e0b\u5fe0\u5b9e\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a”\u3002<\/div>
 <\/div>
\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u515a\u5236\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u6210\u672c<\/strong><\/div>
 <\/div>
\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u53ef\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6cbb\u7406\u6210\u672c\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u516c\u5171\u4ea7\u54c1\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9759\u6001\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002\u8d75\u7d2b\u9633\u7684\u9ad8\u660e\u4e4b\u5904\u8fd8\u5728\u4e8e\u4ed6\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u529f\u7528\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u515a\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6cbb\u7406\u4f53\u7cfb\u548c\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5728\u6211\u7684\u300a\u4e8c\u5143\u53d1\u5c55\u578b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u5c55\u6218\u7565\u4e0e\u5236\u5ea6\u5b89\u6392\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u9093\u5c0f\u5e73\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u4e0a\u7684\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u4ed6\u6ce8\u91cd\u964d\u4f4e\u8f6c\u578b\u6210\u672c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u91cc\uff0c\u53e4\u5178\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u975e\u5e38\u6ce8\u91cd\u964d\u4f4e“\u751f\u4ea7\u6210\u672c”\uff08Production cost\u53c8\u53eb“transformation cost”\uff09\uff0c\u5236\u5ea6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5219\u6ce8\u91cd\u964d\u4f4e“\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c”\uff08transaction cost\uff09\u3002\u5236\u5ea6\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5e08\u4eec\u4e00\u822c\u4f1a\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u90a3\u4e00\u79cd\u4f53\u5236\u5728\u964d\u4f4e\u8fd9\u4e24\u9879\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u7684\u6548\u7387\u4e0a\u6700\u4f18\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u505a\u51fa\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u4f46\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u79d1\u65af\u5728“\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6027\u8d28”\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u5728\u4eba\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u5b89\u6392\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5e94\u8be5\u8003\u8651“\u8fd0\u8425”\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u8fd8\u5e94\u8003\u8651“\u8f6c\u5165\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u4f53\u7cfb”\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e24\u76f8\u987e\u53ca\uff0c\u624d\u662f“\u603b\u6548\u76ca”\uff08total effect\uff09\u3002 \u79d1\u65af\u6ca1\u6709\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6210\u672c\u547d\u540d\uff0c\u6211\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a“\u8f6c\u578b\u6210\u672c”\uff08Transition cost\uff09\u3002\u7ee7\u7eed\u7528\u9093\u5c0f\u5e73\u6765\u505a\u4f8b\u5b50\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a\u4ed6\u7684“\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u4ea7\u529b”\u3001“\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u672f\u9769\u547d”\u3001“\u56db\u4e2a\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316”\u4e4b\u7c7b\u662f\u9488\u5bf9“\u751f\u4ea7\u6210\u672c”\u800c\u8a00\u7684\uff1b\u4ed6\u7684“\u89e3\u653e\u751f\u4ea7\u529b”\u3001“\u53cd\u5bf9\u5b98\u50da\u4e3b\u4e49”\u3001“\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u6539\u9769”\u548c“\u89e3\u51b3\u653f\u4f01\u5206\u5f00”\u662f\u9488\u5bf9“\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c”\u800c\u8a00\u7684\uff1b\u4ed6\u7684“\u6478\u7740\u77f3\u5934\u8fc7\u6cb3”\u3001“\u4e71\u4e0d\u5f97”\u3001“\u641e\u7279\u533a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7530”\u662f\u9488\u5bf9“\u8f6c\u578b\u6210\u672c”\u800c\u8a00\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e2d\u3001\u82cf\uff08\u4fc4\uff09\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u5728\u516b\u3001\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6210\u6548\u8fd8\u662f\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u4e3b\u8981\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u9762\u5bf9\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e3a\u7ee7\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u7528“\u6295\u5165\u4ea7\u51fa”\u548c“\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u7528”\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u53bb\u770b\u5f85\u653f\u4f53\u8425\u8fd0\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e0d\u60dc\u4e00\u5207\u4ee3\u4ef7“\u7ef4\u7a33”\u3001“\u548c\u8c10”\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6ca1\u6709\u505a\u597d\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u51c6\u5907\uff08\u601d\u60f3\u4e0a\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0a\u3001\u548c\u5b98\u5458\u8fd0\u4f5c\u6c11\u4e3b\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u8981\u6c42\u7b49\uff09\u3002\u5982\u679c\u73b0\u5728\u8fd8\u4e0d\u80fd\u5141\u8bb8“\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u7684\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7530”\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u6df1\u5733\u60f3\u641e\u7684“\u653f\u6cbb\u7279\u533a”\u548c\u9999\u6e2f\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u666e\u9009\uff09\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u52bf\u5fc5\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e2d\u56fd\u9762\u4e34\u793e\u4f1a\u5168\u9762\u6e83\u8d25\u548c\u653f\u6743\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u5371\u9669\uff0c\u90a3\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u5929\u4ef7\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/div>
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