{"id":2771,"date":"2007-10-10T17:17:31","date_gmt":"2007-10-10T17:17:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=2771 "},"modified":"2007-10-10T17:17:31","modified_gmt":"2007-10-10T17:17:31","slug":"2771-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=2771","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u80fd\u81ea\u7531\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u672c\u520a\u5f3a\u529b\u63a8\u8350\u4e09\u4f4d\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b66\u8005\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u524d\u666f\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/SPAN>2007\u5e74<\/SPAN>7\u6708\u53f7\u3002<\/SPAN><\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/STRONG><\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

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<\/SPAN>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u4ea8\u5229 S.\u7f57\u6587
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\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\u6742\u5fd7 \uff08Journal of Democracy July 2007 Issue\uff09<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>\r\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u7b80\u4ecb\uff1a\u4ea8\u5229 S.\u7f57\u6587 \uff08Henry S.Rowen\uff09\u662f\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66Freeman Spogli \u56fd\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08FSI\uff09\u4e9a\u592a\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u540d\u8a89\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u9662\u540d\u8a89\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u80e1\u4f5b\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u9769\u547d\u4e0e\u548c\u5e73\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08\u7b80\u79f0\u80e1\u4f5b\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff09\u9ad8\u6559\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3002<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>\r\n

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<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN> <\/P>\r\n

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<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN> <\/P>\r\n

<\/o:p><\/SPAN>\u5bf9\u4e0a\u8ff0\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u516c\u6c11\u81ea\u7531\u6bd4\u653f\u6cbb\u6743\u5229\u589e\u957f\u7684\u8981\u5feb\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u53d6\u6d88\u4eba\u4eec\u6700\u8fd1\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u81ea\u7531\u6765\u7f29\u5c0f\u8fd9\u4e00\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u5982\u6b64\u591a\u7684\u9ebb\u70e6\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5dee\u8ddd\u540c\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u9884\u793a\u7740\u653f\u6cbb\u52a8\u8361\u7684\u5230\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0d\u80fd\u59a8\u788d\u957f\u671f\u7684\u6559\u80b2\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u4eba\u4eec\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5047\u5b9a\u957f\u671f\u7684\u6574\u6cbb\u52a8\u8361\u6216\u957f\u671f\u589e\u957f\u7684\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>\r\n

<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN> <\/P>\r\n

<\/o:p><\/SPAN>\u5982\u679c\u81ea\u7531\u90e8\u5206\u9996\u5148\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ece\u800c\u6210\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u524d\u666f\u5c06\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f7f\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e00\u57fa\u7840\u5f97\u5230\u843d\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9700\u8981\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u5e7f\u6559\u80b2\uff0c\u52a0\u5f3a\u5bf9\u4ea7\u6743\u7684\u4fdd\u62a4\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u900f\u660e\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u529b\u7684\u79c1\u4eba\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e2a\u4eba\u81ea\u7531\uff0c\u7f29\u5c0f\u8d2b\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u6b63\u5982\u4f69\u5c14\u68ee\uff08Persson\uff09\u548c\u5854\u8d1d\u91cc\u5c3c\uff08Tabellini\uff09\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u6539\u9769\u7684\u6b21\u5e8f\u662f\u5173\u952e\u7684\uff0c\u5148\u8fdb\u884c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u540e\u8fdb\u884c\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u505a\u7684\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u201d<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>\r\n

<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN> <\/P>\r\n

<\/o:p><\/SPAN>\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\u4e54\u6cbb•\u8212\u5c14\u8328\uff08George Schultz\uff09\u66fe\u7ecf\u5411\u6211\u63d0\u8d77\u8fc7\u4ed6\u548c\u9093\u5c0f\u5e73\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u524d\u82cf\u8054\u6208\u5c14\u5df4\u4e54\u592b\u6539\u9769\u65f6\u9093\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u201c\u4ed6\u5728\u540e\u9000\u201d\uff0c\u9093\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u6208\u5c14\u5df4\u4e54\u592b\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u4e4b\u524d\u5f00\u653e\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5fc5\u5c06\u662f\u6df7\u4e71\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6211\u9996\u5148\u6539\u9769\u519c\u4e1a\u548c\u5c0f\u578b\u5546\u4e1a\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u73b0\u5728\u6211\u9700\u8981\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u9762\u53d6\u5f97\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u6210\u529f\u3002\u201d\u5f53Schultz\u95ee\u9093\u5c0f\u5e73\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u9093\u5c0f\u5e73\u56de\u7b54\uff0c\u201c\u90a3\u4f1a\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u800c\u4e14\u4f1a\u5faa\u5e8f\u6e10\u8fdb\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u4f60\u5f97\u8010\u5fc3\u800c\u4e14\u628a\u6b21\u5e8f\u5f04\u5bf9\u3002\u201d<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>\r\n

<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN> <\/P>\r\n

<\/o:p><\/SPAN>\u5b66\u8005\u4f55\u5305\u94a2\uff08He Baogang\uff09\u6307\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u515a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u529f\u80fd\u4e0a\u7684\u7b49\u540c\u7269\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5305\u542b\u5404\u79cd\u4ee3\u8868\u4e0d\u540c\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u6d3e\u522b\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u515a\u5185\u6597\u4e89\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5979\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u6025\u5207\u7684\u8981\u76d1\u63a7\u5176\u6210\u5458\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u9632\u6b62\u5176\u8d70\u5411\u72ec\u88c1\u548c\u8150\u8d25\uff0c\u4ece\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u8bf4\uff0c\u6797\u5188\uff08Gang Lin\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\uff08\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u515a\u5185\u6c11\u4e3b\uff09\uff0c\u5c06\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u6267\u653f\u515a\u5206\u89e3\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5de9\u56fa\u5176\u6743\u5a01\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>\r\n

<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN> <\/P>\r\n

<\/o:p><\/SPAN>\u672a\u6765\u7a76\u7adf\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u6ca1\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u65ad\u8a00\u3002\u901a\u5f80\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u8def\u5f84\u5f88\u591a\u2014\u2014\u574e\u5777\u7684\u3001\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\u6216\u4ecb\u4e8e\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u8861\u91cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u524d\u9762\u9053\u8def\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4e2d\u56fd\u7f29\u5c0f\u5feb\u901f\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u5b9e\u548c\u7531\u4e8e\u5236\u5ea6\u60ef\u6027\u76f8\u5bf9\u843d\u540e\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0e\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e4b\u95f4\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u600e\u6837\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6f14\u8fdb\u3002<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>\r\n

<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN> <\/P>\r\n

<\/o:p><\/SPAN>\u5df4\u7f57\uff08Robert J. Barro\uff09\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u9009\u4e3e\u6743\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9a\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u4e0eFH\u7684\u201c\u653f\u6cbb\u6743\u5229\u201d\u8303\u7574\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u6309\u7167\u201c\u653f\u6cbb\u6743\u5229\u201d\u8861\u91cf\u7684\u524d\u671f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u6c34\u5e73\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u4ee5\u540e\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u968f\u7740\u76f8\u9694\u65f6\u95f4\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u6269\u5927\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4ed6\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u6c11\u4e3b\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4eba\u5747GDP\u548c\u4eba\u53e3\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff08\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u90fd\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u6307\u6807\u662f\u53d7\u8fc7\u521d\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u7684\u7537\u5973\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8d8b\u5411\u5747\u8861\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4f1a\u9010\u6e10\u8d8b\u5411\u8fd9\u4e9b\u793e\u4f1a\u6307\u6807\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>\r\n

  <\/FONT><\/P>\r\n

 <\/FONT><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n

TABLE\u2014PREDICTIONS FOR CHINA<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>\u2019S FUTURE<\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD><\/TR>\r\n

\r\n

YEAR <\/SPAN><\/B><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

PER CAPITA GDP (2006 PPP) <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

AVERAGE YEARS OF SCHOOLING (>25) <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

PREDICTED ELECTORAL RIGHTS <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

PREDICTED FREEDOM HOUSE RATING <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD><\/TR>\r\n

\r\n

2010 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

$8,500 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

6.3 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

22 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

Not Free <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD><\/TR>\r\n

\r\n

2015 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

$10,000 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

6.7 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

43 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

Partly Free <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD><\/TR>\r\n

\r\n

2020 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

$11,800 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

7.2 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

61 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

Partly Free <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD><\/TR>\r\n

\r\n

2025 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

$14,000 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

7.7 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

76 <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD>\r\n

\r\n

Free <\/o:p><\/FONT><\/SPAN><\/P><\/TD><\/TR><\/TBODY><\/TABLE><\/DIV>\r\n

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