{"id":35635,"date":"2013-09-09T22:21:00","date_gmt":"2013-09-09T22:21:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=35635 "},"modified":"2013-09-09T22:21:00","modified_gmt":"2013-09-09T22:21:00","slug":"35635-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=35635","title":{"rendered":"\u5317\u4eac\u70ba\u4f55\u4e0d\u64a4\u63db\u6881\u632f\u82f1"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-family:PMingLiU;\">\u89c0\u5bdf\u9999\u6e2f\u653f\u60c5\u81f3\u4eca\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5927\u81bd\u5730\u78ba\u8a8d\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u4e2d\u592e\u6c92\u6709<\/span>Plan B<span style=\"font-family:PMingLiU;\">\uff08\u64a4\u63db\u6881\u632f\u82f1\u7684\u9810\u6848\uff09\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u81f3\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u6b62\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family:PMingLiU;\">\u6839\u64da\u6881\u632f\u82f1\u843d\u5340\u5929\u6c34\u5712\u7684\u6709\u8a08\u5283\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u70ba\u9019\u500b\u7d50\u8ad6\u4f5c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f50\u8b49\u3002\uff08\u96d6\u7136\u843d\u5340\u89c0\u5858\u56e0\u6cdb\u6c11\u5df2\u6709\u4e86\u6212\u5099\u800c\u6709\u6240\u6536\u6582\uff09\u7576\u5929\uff0c\u4ed6\u6709\u5099\u800c\u4f86\uff0c\u8d77\u7528\u4e00\u6279\u8207\u5730\u4e0b\u9ee8\u4e00\u6a23\u4e0d\u4ee5\u771f\u5be6\u8eab\u4efd\u793a\u4eba\u7684\u9ed1\u793e\u6703\u300c\u53e3\u7f69\u5e6b\u300d\u4f48\u7f6e\u8b77\u99d5\u9663\u52e2\uff0c\u4e26\u4f3a\u6a5f\u8972\u4eba\uff0c\u5be6\u70ba\u6709\u7d44\u7e54\u5730\u5411\u53cd\u6297\u8005\u767c\u70ae\uff0c\u9032\u884c\u7a81\u8972\u3002\u771f\u662f\u7269\u4ee5\u985e\u805a\uff0c\u4eba\u4ee5\u7fa4\u5206\u3002\u4ed6\u501f\u984c\u300c\u807d\u6c11\u610f\u300d\uff0c\u4ed6\u63aa\u8fad\u5f37\u786c\u5730\u5ba3\u4f48\u4e0d\u80fd\u5920\u4ee4\u5ec9\u7f72\u6210\u70ba\u653f\u6cbb\u6253\u64ca\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u8b93\u793e\u6703\u5c11\u6578\u4eba\u5728\u96c6\u6703\u4e0a\u5411\u8b66\u65b9\u5ba3\u6d29\u500b\u4eba\u4e0d\u6eff\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u8cca\u558a\u6349\u8cca\u3002\u4ed6\u63d2\u624b\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u9ad8\u8abf\u8981\u6c42\u6559\u80b2\u5c40\u5c31\u6797\u6167\u601d\u8001\u5e2b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u63d0\u4ea4\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u4e8b\u4ef6\u63d0\u4ea4\u8b66\u65b9\u91cd\u6848\u7d44\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c\u9032\u884c\u653f\u6cbb\u8feb\u5bb3\u3002\u9019\u6b63\u5982\u7d05\u885b\u5175\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u628a\u4eba\u6253\u7ffb\u5728\u5730\u9084\u8981\u8e0f\u4e0a\u4e00\u8173\uff0c\u8b93\u4eba\u6c38\u4e16\u4e0d\u5f97\u7ffb\u8eab\uff0c\u81f4\u4eba\u65bc\u6b7b\u5730\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family:PMingLiU;\">\u53ea\u898b\u4ed6\u795e\u614b\u81ea\u82e5\uff0c\u6709\u6043\u7121\u6050\u5730\u8b1b\u8a71\uff0c\u8aaa\u5230\u95dc\u9375\u8a5e\u53e5\u6642\u9084\u63d0\u9ad8\u8072\u8abf\uff0c\u52a0\u91cd\u8a9e\u6c23\uff0c\u8207\u4ee5\u524d\u96e2\u5834\u6642\u8981\u8d70\u5f8c\u9580\u7684\u60c5\u52e2\u4e0d\u53ef\u540c\u65e5\u800c\u8a9e\u3002\u7279\u9996\u5229\u7528\u6574\u500b\u516c\u6b0a\u529b\uff0c\u516c\u7136\u6495\u88c2\u793e\u6703\uff0c\u7e31\u5bb9\u300c\u611b\u300d\u5b57\u865f\u7d05\u885b\u5175\u56db\u8655\u300c\u64a9\u662f\u9b25\u975e\u300d\u9084\u4e0d\u5920\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u89aa\u81ea\u8d64\u819e\u4e0a\u9663\uff0c\u70ba\u4ed6\u7684\u560d\u56c9\u6253\u6c23\uff0c\u628a\u751a\u9ebc\u7a0b\u5e8f\u6b63\u7fa9\uff0c\u751a\u9ebc\u6cd5\u6cbb\u516c\u7fa9\u901a\u901a\u62cb\u5230\u4e5d\u9704\u96f2\u5916\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family:PMingLiU;\">\u6881\u632f\u82f1\u4e0a\u53f0\u4e00\u5e74\u5df2\u7d93\u793a\u7bc4\u4e86\u7121\u6578\u53ea\u6709\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u54e1\u624d\u6703\u505a\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u843d\u5340\u5929\u6c34\u570d\u66f4\u662f\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u54e1\u672c\u8cea\uff08\u9b25\u722d\u7684\u54f2\u5b78\uff09\u7684\u5927\u66b4\u9732\u3002\u6240\u6709\u7684\u793a\u7bc4\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u8db3\u5920\u7a4d\u7d2f\u6210\u4e00\u5e45\u62fc\u5716\uff0c\u6210\u70ba\u5728\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e0a\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u300c\u74b0\u5883\u8b49\u4f9b\u300d\uff08<\/span>circumstantial evidence<span style=\"font-family: PMingLiU;\">\uff09\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u8b49\u64da\u3002\u7d9c\u5408\u8996\u4e4b\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u5408\u7406\u63a8\u65b7\u4ed6\u6b63\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u4ee4\u66f4\u591a\u4eba\u76f8\u4fe1\u7684\u300c\u884c\u70ba\u5be6\u8cea\u5730\u4e0b\u9ee8\u54e1\u300d\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family:PMingLiU;\">\u8ab0\u7d66\u4ed6\u4e00\u7c92\u5b9a\u5fc3\u4e38\uff1f\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u3002\u9ee8\u7684\u9818\u5c0e\u5df2\u5411\u4ed6\u50b3\u9054\u4e86\u9ee8\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u6cbb\u6e2f\u6307\u793a\u4e86\u3002\u9019\u500b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ed6\u5c6c\u4e0b\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u6e2f\u6fb3\u5de5\u4f5c\u5354\u8abf\u5c0f\u7d44\u6d3e\u51fa\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u3002\u4ee5\u73fe\u6642\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u548c\u9ee8\u5167\u50b3\u7d71\u770b\uff0c\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u4e0d\u6703\u76f4\u63a5\u4e0b\u4ee4\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u9032\u884c\u6587\u9769\u5f0f\u6279\u9b25\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u300c\u93ae\u58d3\u7dad\u7a4f\uff0c\u300e\u5f37\u786c\u300f\u5c0d\u5f85\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u300d\u7b49\u5e36\u539f\u5247\u6027\uff0c\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u7684\u6cbb\u6e2f\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u770b\u5230\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u6881\u632f\u82f1\u6839\u64da\u9ee8\u6240\u50b3\u9054\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u6307\u4ee4\uff1a\u300c\u5f37\u786c\u6cbb\u6e2f\u653f\u7b56\u300d\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u800c\u81ea\u884c\u8a2d\u8a08\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u5957\u5177\u9ad4\u884c\u52d5\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u5411\u4e2d\u592e\u5831\u529f\u3002\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e0d\u540c\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u5730\u4e0b\u9ee8\u540c\u5fd7\u4e5f\u4e0d\u751a\u4e86\u4e86\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u7d30\u7bc0\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u540c\u610f\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6c92\u6709<\/span>Plan B<span style=\"font-family:PMingLiU;\">\u3002\u4e2d\u592e\u4e0d\u6703\u64a4\u63db\u6881\u632f\u82f1\uff0c\u9084\u5728\u91cd\u7528\u4ed6\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family:PMingLiU;\">\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u5df2\u7d93\u516c\u7136\u62d2\u7d55\u6c11\u4e3b\u61b2\u653f\uff0c\u8981\u8d70\u56de\u6bdb\u6fa4\u6771\u6975\u5de6\u7684\u8001\u8def\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u5730\u4e0b\u9ee8\u54e1\u7684\u6881\u632f\u82f1\u8ddf\u96a8\u9ee8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u4f5c\u51fa\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u662f\u4e0d\u8db3\u70ba\u5947\uff0c\u8207\u4e2d\u592e\u93ae\u58d3\u7dad\u7a4f\u7684\u601d\u8def\u662f\u4e00\u8108\u76f8\u627f\u7684\u3002\u6bdb\u6fa4\u6771\u6700\u5229\u5bb3\u7684\u62db\u6578\u662f\u751a\u9ebc\uff1f\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u548c\u5c1a\u6253\u5098\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u7121\u5929\u300d\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6311\u52d5\u300c\u7fa4\u773e\u9b25\u7fa4\u773e\u300d\u3002\u6587\u9769\u6642\uff0c\u6bdb\u8b93\u90a3\u4e9b\u7d05\u885b\u5175\u9b25\u500b\u4f60\u6b7b\u6211\u6d3b\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4fbf\u4f86\u6536\u62fe\u6b98\u5c40\u3002\u5c0d\u4ed6\u6709\u7528\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u9003\u51fa\u751f\u5929\uff0c\u7121\u7528\u7684\u4fbf\u4e0d\u5f97\u8d85\u751f\u3002\u6881\u632f\u82f1\u662f\u5b78\u6bdb\u7684\u597d\u699c\u6a23\uff0c\u662f\u6bdb\u7684\u50b3\u4eba\uff0c\u9aa8\u5b50\u88cf\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u6bdb\u6fa4\u6771\u3002\u4ed6\u4ea6\u6b63\u5728\u5f35\u7259\u821e\u6293\uff0c\u6311\u64a5\u300c\u7fa4\u773e\u9b25\u7fa4\u773e\u300d\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u6d41\u8840\u50b7\u4ea1\uff0c\u7834\u58de\u300c\u611b\u8207\u548c\u5e73\u300d\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5ac1\u798d\u65bc\u53cd\u6297\u8005\uff0c\u74e6\u89e3\u6c11\u4e3b\u904b\u52d5\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u6d3e\u4eba\u58eb\u5343\u842c\u8981\u7ad9\u5f97\u7a4f\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u5176\u6427\u52d5\u6311\u64a5\u5f97\u901e\uff0c\u5805\u5b88\u300c\u548c\u7406\u975e\u975e\u300d\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u4e0a\u7576\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family:PMingLiU;\">\u65e9\u524d\u65bd\u6c38\u9752\u5ea7\u99d5\u88ab\u8972\u64ca\uff0c\u9ece\u667a\u82f1\u88ab\u649e\u9598\u9580\uff0c\u860b\u679c\u65e5\u5831\u88ab\u706b\u71d2\u90fd\u662f\u8b66\u865f\uff0c\u8b93\u6211\u60f3\u8d77\u6797\u5f6c\u3002\u6211\u6709\u9810\u611f\uff0c\u6881\u632f\u82f1\u5fc5\u6703\u6293\u7740\u4e00\u4e9b\u7f3a\u53e3\u4e0d\u653e\uff0c\u628a\u706b\u7206\u60c5\u52e2\u8086\u7121\u5fcc\u619a\uff0c\u70ba\u6240\u6b32\u70ba\u5730\u63a8\u6f14\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u7121\u6cd5\u7121\u5929\u5730\u53bb\u6bba\u4e00\u8b66\u767e\uff0c\u58d3\u5236\u53cd\u6297\u8005\u7684\u566a\u97f3\u3002\u9019\u6a23\uff0c\u6797\u5f6c\u5144\u5f1f\u6158\u6848\u5fc5\u6703\u91cd\u6f14\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u5168\u6e2f\u5664\u8072\u70ba\u6b62\u3002\u7576\u5e74\u6797\u5f6c\u58ef\u70c8\u72a7\u7272\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u6050\u6016\u7d44\u7e54\u300c\u5730\u4e0b\u92e4\u5978\u7a81\u64ca\u968a\u300d\u627f\u8a8d\u7f6a\u8cac\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u4e2d\u5171\u4f7f\u7528\u9ed1\u793e\u6703\u6bba\u4eba\u5c31\u4e7e\u624b\u6de8\u8173\u7121\u5f8c\u9867\u4e4b\u6182\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p><span 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