{"id":38842,"date":"2014-03-26T21:18:00","date_gmt":"2014-03-26T21:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=38842 "},"modified":"2014-03-26T21:18:00","modified_gmt":"2014-03-26T21:18:00","slug":"38842-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=38842","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd3\u6708\u4efd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u6e29"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"margin: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; background-color: #ffffff; float: left; width: 28px; color: #990000; border: 0px solid #000000; padding: 0px; line-height: 39px; font-size: 28px; font-weight: bolder;\">\u968f<\/div><span style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\">\u7740\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u4e2d\u56fd\u589e\u957f\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u6b63\u5f00\u59cb\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u663e\u8457\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/span><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; 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font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\">\u652f\u6491\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e16\u754c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u589e\u901f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u8eab\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u90fd\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d70\u8f6f\u53ef\u80fd\u5a01\u80c1\u521b\u9020\u5c31\u4e1a\u8fd9\u4e00\u653f\u5e9c\u6700\u4f18\u5148\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5c06\u4f7f\u56fd\u6709\u4f01\u4e1a\u6539\u5236\u548c\u5229\u7387\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u7b49\u6539\u9769\u8ba1\u5212\u5931\u53bb\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u77ed\u671f\u589e\u957f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u6162\u3002<\/span><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\">\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u4f1a\u4ee4\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u589e\u957f\u4e5f\u51cf\u6162\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u4e9a\u6d32\u548c\u62c9\u7f8e\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u8d44\u672c\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e5\u672c\u7535\u5b50\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u51fa\u53e3\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u636e\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a(JP Morgan)\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c(GDP)\u589e\u957f\u7387\u6bcf\u51cf\u5c11\u4e00\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u5c06\u62d6\u7d2f\u5168\u7403\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533aGDP\u589e\u957f\u7387\u964d\u4f4e0.35\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002<\/span><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><div style=\"margin: auto; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff; width: 545px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cn.wsj.com\/photo\/WO-AR781_CECON_G_20140324184503.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" border=\"0\" style=\"width: 545px;\" \/><div style=\"margin: auto; font-size: 10px; color: #666666;\"><\/div><div style=\"margin: auto; color: #c74b15;\"><\/div><\/div><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u589e\u957f\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u4fe1\u53f7\u6765\u81ea\u4e00\u9879\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u6307\u6807\u3002\u6c47\u4e30(HSBC) 3\u6708\u4efd\u4e2d\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6570(PMI)\u9884\u89c8\u6570\u636e\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u5904\u4e8e\u840e\u7f29\u9886\u57df\u3002\u6c47\u4e30\u5468\u4e00\u516c\u5e03\uff0c3\u6708\u4efd\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u4e3a48.1\uff0c\u521b8\u4e2a\u6708\u65b0\u4f4e\u3002\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u9ad8\u4e8e50\u8868\u660e\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e50\u8868\u660e\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u840e\u7f29\u3002<\/span><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\">\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u4e2d\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u548c\u65b0\u8ba2\u5355\u5206\u7c7b\u6307\u6570\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5c31\u4e1a\u5206\u7c7b\u6307\u6570\u6709\u6240\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u5904\u5728\u663e\u793a\u840e\u7f29\u7684\u533a\u57df\u5185\u3002\u6c47\u4e30\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\u9884\u89c8\u6307\u6570\u662f\u6839\u636e\u6bcf\u6708\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u95ee\u5377\u53cd\u9988\u603b\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u768485%-90%\u4e3a\u4f9d\u636e\u7f16\u5236\u7684\u3002<\/span><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\">\u603b\u90e8\u4f4d\u4e8e\u6e29\u5dde\u7684\u5927\u4e1c\u978b\u4e1a\u6709\u9650\u516c\u53f8(Dadong Shoes Co. Ltd)\u7684\u8001\u677f\u9a6c\u6625\u534e\uff08\u97f3\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u672a\u770b\u5230\u8ba2\u5355\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5438\u5f15\u6d77\u5916\u5ba2\u6237\u4ecd\u5f88\u56f0\u96be\uff0c\u5ba2\u6237\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u6b63\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3002<\/span><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\">\u57283\u6708\u4efd\u75b2\u5f31\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u51fa\u7089\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c1\u6708\u548c2\u6708\u96f6\u552e\u989d\u3001\u5de5\u4e1a\u589e\u52a0\u503c\u3001\u8d38\u6613\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u6570\u636e\u4ee4\u4eba\u5931\u671b\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5f00\u59cb\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u603b\u7406\u674e\u514b\u5f3a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u8be5\u7a33\u589e\u957f\u3001\u4fc3\u5185\u9700\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u6307\u660e\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/span><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><div style=\"margin: auto auto 10px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff; width: 262px; float: left;\"><div style=\"margin: 10px 10px 5px 0px; border-top-width: 4px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: #b0cada; font-size: 14px; padding: 3px 0px 0px 3px; font-weight: bold; color: #303030;\">\u76f8\u5173\u62a5\u9053<\/div><div style=\"margin: auto; padding: 0px 3px; width: 254px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cn.wsj.com\/pictures\/format\/orange_bullet.gif\" style=\"margin: 0px 5px 0px 0px;\" alt=\"\" \/><a title=\"\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u51fa\u73b0\u653e\u7f13\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u8ba1\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u91c7\u53d6\u4e00\u4e9b\u8f83\u4e3a\u4f4e\u8c03\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5e76\u79f0\u653f\u5e9c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u884c\u52a8\u4e86\u3002\" href=\"http:\/\/cn.wsj.com\/gb\/20140324\/rte170753.asp?source=article\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"color: #093d72; text-decoration: none; outline: #000000;\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13 \u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u5373\u5c06\u51fa\u53f0\uff1f<\/a><br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cn.wsj.com\/pictures\/format\/orange_bullet.gif\" style=\"margin: 0px 5px 0px 0px;\" alt=\"\" \/><a title=\"\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u51fa\u5e2d\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u5c55\u8bba\u575b\u7684IMF\u603b\u88c1\u62c9\u52a0\u5fb7\u65e5\u524d\u5728\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u53d1\u8868\u6f14\u8bb2\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8c08\u5230\u8981\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u8fd8\u6566\u4fc3\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u6839\u672c\u6027\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u653e\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u523a\u6fc0\u65b9\u6848\u4e4b\u524d\u3002\" href=\"http:\/\/cn.wsj.com\/gb\/20140324\/ecb110455.asp?source=article\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"color: #093d72; text-decoration: none; outline: #000000;\">IMF\u603b\u88c1\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u91cd\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u523a\u6fc0<\/a><\/div><\/div><span style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\">\u9ad8\u76db(Goldman Sachs)\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5b8b\u5b87\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u529b\u4e89\u5b9e\u73b02014\u5e747.5%\u7684GDP\u589e\u957f\u76ee\u6807\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u523a\u6fc0\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u3002\u8fd1\u6765\uff0c\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u5df2\u6279\u51c6\u65a5\u8d44\u4eba\u6c11\u5e011,424\u4ebf\u5143\uff08\u5408230\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u4fee\u5efa\u4e94\u6761\u94c1\u8def\u3002\u5df4\u514b\u83b1(Barclays)\u79f0\uff0c\u6d59\u6c5f\u7701\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u4e5f\u6279\u51c6\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7535\u7f51\u516c\u53f82014\u5e74\u524d\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u652f\u51fa\u589e\u52a0\u4e8622%\u3002<\/span><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u5728\u5bfb\u6c42\u91cd\u632f\u4f4e\u8ff7\u7684\u697c\u5e02\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\uff0c\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u6279\u51c6\u4e24\u5bb6\u4e2d\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5f00\u53d1\u5546\u5b9a\u5411\u589e\u53d1\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u56db\u5e74\u6765\u653f\u5e9c\u9996\u6b21\u5141\u8bb8\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u516c\u53f8\u4ee5\u8fd9\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7b79\u8d44\u3002<\/span><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u51fa\u53f0\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u5bbd\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u81ea1\u6708\u5e95\u4e2d\u56fd\u6625\u8282\u9020\u6210\u73b0\u91d1\u7d27\u5f20\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u5229\u7387\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8d37\u6b3e\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u8fd8\u5728\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u8fd1\u51e0\u5468\u5f15\u5bfc\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8d70\u8f6f\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u989d\u5916\u73b0\u91d1\u4f9b\u5e94\u3002<\/span><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\">\u4eca\u5e74\u622a\u81f31\u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u5347\u503c0.2%\u3002\u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c2.9%\uff0c\u5c06\u4eca\u5e74\u521d\u4ee5\u53ca2013\u5e74\u5168\u5e742.9%\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u51e0\u4e4e\u5168\u90e8\u62b9\u6d88\u3002<\/span><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; background-color: #ffffff;\">\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\u592e\u884c\u5f15\u5bfc\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u662f\u4e3a\u904f\u5236\u5916\u56fd\u70ed\u94b1\u7684\u6d41\u5165\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6b64\u4e3e\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u62b5\u6d88\u4e0d\u65ad\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e3a\u9677\u5165\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u5546\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u5229\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/span><br style=\"font-family: arial, sans-serif; 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