{"id":46066,"date":"2015-03-19T02:32:00","date_gmt":"2015-03-19T02:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=46066 "},"modified":"2015-03-19T02:32:00","modified_gmt":"2015-03-19T02:32:00","slug":"46066-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=46066","title":{"rendered":"\u672a\u666e\uff1a\u201c\u4eb2\u5317\u4eac\u201d\u5b66\u8005\u4e3a\u4f55\u5531\u8870\u5317\u4eac\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u8457\u540d\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u7814\u7a76\u5b66\u8005\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f(David Shambaugh)3\u67087\u65e5\u5728\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0“The Coming Chinese Crackup”\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5171\u7edf\u6cbb\u51fa\u73b0\u5d29\u6e83\u5f81\u5146\uff0c\u5e76\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u8fdb\u5165\u6b8b\u5c40\u3002\u8fd9\u756a\u8bae\u8bba\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u90fd\u5f15\u8d77\u5f88\u5927\u53cd\u54cd\u3002\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e00\u5411\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5bf9\u534e\u53cb\u597d\u7684\u8fd9\u4f4d\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u7a81\u7136\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e86\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee4\u5b98\u65b9\u65e2\u607c\u53c8\u6012\u3002\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u901a\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u65f6\u5c40\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u5f53\u4eca\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b66\u754c\u65b0\u52a8\u5411\u3002<\/span>

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\u4e2d\u56fd\u65b9\u9762\u7ed9\u4e86\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u8fd9\u4e48\u591a\u7279\u6b8a\u5f85\u9047\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u4ed6\u80fd\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u6743\u591a\u591a\u7f8e\u8a00\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u5728\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6fc0\u70c8\u6279\u8bc4\uff0c\u4ee4\u5b98\u65b9\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u723d\u3002\u300a\u73af\u7403\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u520a\u6587“\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u7a81\u558a‘\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d29\u6e83’\u4e3a\u54ea\u822c”\u79f0\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3b\u6d41\u5b66\u8005\u4ee5“\u8fc7\u5c71\u8f66\u822c\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u5f00\u5c55\u5bf9\u534e\u7814\u7a76\u5e76\u5f15\u5bfc\u7f8e\u56fd\u8206\u8bba”\uff0c\u5f88\u4ee4\u4eba\u5931\u671b\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b66\u8005\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6c88\u7684“\u5b66\u672f\u7a81\u53d8”\u8ba9\u4eba\u65e0\u6240\u9002\u4ece\u3002<\/span>

\u5176\u5b9e\u7f8e\u56fd\u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u5728\u8bd5\u56fe\u5bfb\u627e\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u601d\u60f3\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\uff13\u6708\uff11\uff15\u65e5\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u520a\u767b\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u50a8\u767e\u4eae\uff08Chris Buckley\uff09\u5bf9\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u7684\u91c7\u8bbf“\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u8c08\u4e2d\u5171\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u98ce\u9669”\uff08“David Shambaugh on the Risks to Chinese Communist Rule”\uff09\u3002<\/span>

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\u4ece\u50a8\u767e\u4eae\u7684\u91c7\u8bbf\u548c\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u5386\u6765\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e0e\u5176\u8bf4\u662f\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u8bf4\u662f\u4e2d\u5171\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u53d8\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u613f\u610f\u8fdb\u884c\u6709\u9650\u6539\u9769\u7684\u515a\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u62d2\u7edd\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u5b9e\u8d28\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u5c31\u8fde\u9887\u6709\u6c11\u610f\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u53cd\u8150\u4e5f\u662f\u5173\u8d77\u95e8\u6765\u53cd\uff0c\u62d2\u7edd\u4e00\u5207\u65b0\u95fb\u76d1\u7763\u548c\u4eba\u6c11\u76d1\u7763\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e94\u5f53\u5c31\u662f\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u5531\u8870\u73b0\u884c\u4e2d\u5171\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u6839\u672c\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/span>

\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff1f\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u7684\u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u5bb6Michael Auslin\u57281\u670829\u65e5\u520a\u6587“\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u7684\u9ec4\u660f”\uff08The Twilight of China’s Communist Party\uff09\u79f0\uff0c\u5728\u534e\u76db\u987f\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u5916\u4ea4\u4eba\u5458\u805a\u4f1a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u5b66\u8005\u63d0\u5230\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u5f0f\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5728\u573a\u7684\u4eba\u51e0\u4e4e\u90fd\u8d5e\u6210\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u957f\u4e45\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u90fd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6301\u60b2\u89c2\u6001\u5ea6\u3002<\/span>

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u5171\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u5904\u4e8e\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u8fb9\u7f18\uff0c\u300aChina File\u300b\u91c7\u8bbf\u4e86\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u4e13\u5bb6\u3002\u7ea6\u7ff0•\u970d\u666e\u91d1\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u5b54\u8bf0\u70fd(Ho-fung Hung)\u8bf4\uff1a\u4ed6\u540c\u610f\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u6240\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u515a\u5185\u5b58\u5728\u4e25\u91cd\u88c2\u75d5\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u88c2\u75d5\u662f\u5426\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u970d\u534e\u5fb7•\u5f17\u4f26\u9f50\uff08Howard French\uff09\u8bf4\uff1a\u8bb8\u591a\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u8038\u4eba\u542c\u95fb\uff0c\u8d28\u7591\u4ed6\u662f\u897f\u65b9\u5531\u8870\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u68cb\u5b50\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7ec6\u770b\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5c65\u5386\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u60c5\u51b5\u7edd\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff1b\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u7406\u8bba\u5e76\u975e\u51ed\u7a7a\u81c6\u9020\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8fd9\u4f4d\u8bda\u5b9e\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0d\u65ad\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span>

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