{"id":46097,"date":"2015-03-20T14:20:00","date_gmt":"2015-03-20T14:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=46097 "},"modified":"2015-03-20T14:20:00","modified_gmt":"2015-03-20T14:20:00","slug":"46097-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=46097","title":{"rendered":"\u4e00\u5468\u65b0\u95fb\u805a\u7126\uff1a\u6d77\u5916\u5b66\u8005\u548c\u5a92\u4f53\u7ee7\u7eed\u70ed\u8bae\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u7684\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u6743\u201c\u6b8b\u5c40\u201d\u8bba"},"content":{"rendered":"
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2015\u5e741\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5b66\u8005\u9ea6\u514b\u5c14•\u5965\u65af\u6797\u66fe\u4e3a\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u64b0\u6587\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fdb\u5165\u8fdf\u66ae\u4e4b\u5e74\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u534e\u76db\u987f\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u79c1\u4eba\u665a\u5bb4\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4f4d\u6743\u5a01\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u8bf4\uff0c“\u6211\u65e0\u6cd5\u7ed9\u4f60\u5b83\u57ae\u53f0\u7684\u786e\u5207\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5df2\u7ecf\u8e0f\u5165\u8fdf\u66ae\u4e4b\u5e74\u3002”\u5965\u65af\u6797\u6ca1\u6709\u70b9\u51fa\u8fd9\u4f4d\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u59d3\u540d\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u573a\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e13\u5bb6\u6ca1\u6709\u53cd\u9a73\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u4eba\u8d5e\u540c\u3002<\/span><\/div>
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▲\u5fb7\u56fd\u4e4b\u58f0\uff08DW\uff093\u670811\u65e5\u62a5\u9053\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u6559\u6388\uff1a“\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u6743\u6b63\u8fdb\u5165\u6b8b\u5c40”<\/span><\/div>
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\u9648\u5b9a\u5b9a\u8fd8\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u52a8\u4e71\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u6743\u4f1a\u88ab\u63a8\u7ffb\u3002\u4ed6\u5199\u9053\uff0c“\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\uff1f\u653f\u6cbb\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u662f\u5426\u4eab\u6709\u5e7f\u5927\u4e2d\u56fd\u767e\u59d3\u7684\u666e\u904d\u652f\u6301\uff1f\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u60f3\u626e\u6f14\u6208\u5c14\u5df4\u4e54\u592b\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff1f\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u90fd\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002”<\/span><\/div>
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\u9648\u5b9a\u5b9a\u65ad\u8a00\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8fc5\u901f\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c“\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u5927\u3001\u81ea\u4fe1\u3001\u5f20\u626c\u548c\u5a01\u6743\u5f0f\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u5f53\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u5e94\u5f53\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5e7b\u60f3\u897f\u65b9\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u613f\u666f\u53d6\u5f97\u80dc\u5229\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u591a\u4e48\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u4eba\u4e0d\u8212\u670d\u3002”<\/span><\/div>
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▲\u81ea\u7531\u4e9a\u6d32\u7535\u53f0(RFA)3\u670812\u65e5\u53d1\u8868\u8bc4\u8bba\u5bb6\u66f9\u957f\u9752\u6587\u7ae0\uff1a\u4eb2\u5317\u4eac\u5b66\u8005\u9884\u8a00\u4e2d\u5171\u5d29\u6e83<\/span><\/div>
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\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u5c31\u4e0d\u540c\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ddf\u7ae0\u4e0d\u540c\u9635\u8425\uff0c\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u4eb2\u5317\u4eac\u6d3e\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u88ab\u53eb\u505a“\u7ea2\u519b”\uff08Red Team\uff0c\u50cf\u5085\u5229\u6c11\u3001\u5965\u514b\u68ee\u4f2f\u683c\u3001\u5305\u9053\u683c\u3001\u84dd\u666e\u6566\u3001\u53f2\u6587\u3001\u9ea6\u5229\u51ef\u7b49\u90fd\u5c5e\u4e8e\u6b64\u9635\u8425\uff09\uff1b\u800c\u50cf\u7ae0\u5bb6\u6566\u90a3\u6837\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e2d\u5171\u5d1b\u8d77\u5a01\u80c1\u4e16\u754c\u4e36\u529b\u633a\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a“\u84dd\u519b”\uff08Blue Team\uff09\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u667a\u5e93\u7684\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u300a\u6807\u51c6\u5468\u520a\u300b\uff08The Weekly Standard\uff09\uff09\u7684\u7f16\u8f91\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u53cd\u5171\u8bae\u5458\u7b49\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u5f88\u5c11\u84dd\u519b\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/div>
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\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4eb2\u5317\u4eac\u5b66\u8005\u4e0d\u4ec5\u591a\uff0c\u4e14\u5f88\u6709\u52bf\u529b\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u5f71\u54cd\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u65e9\u5728\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u5171\u4e24\u515a\u5185\u6218\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u5b98\u5458\uff08\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7f8e\u519b\u89c2\u5bdf\u5458\u88ab\u6d3e\u9a7b\u5ef6\u5b89\uff09\u8c22\u4f1f\u601d\uff08John Service\uff09\uff0c\u4eb2\u5171\u5230\u51e0\u4e4e\u6210\u4e3a\u6bdb\u6cfd\u4e1c\u7684\u4f20\u58f0\u7b52\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u5ef6\u5b89\u65f6\u8ddf\u6bdb\u6cfd\u4e1c\u8c08\u8bdd50\u591a\u6b21\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u88ab\u6bdb\u6d17\u8111\u3002\u4ed6\u5199\u7ed9\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u51e0\u4e4e\u90fd\u662f\u66ff\u6bdb\u8bb2\u8bdd\uff0c\u8d2c\u4f4e\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u56fd\u6c11\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u9886\u8896\u848b\u4ecb\u77f3\u3002<\/span><\/div>
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\u8c22\u4f1f\u601d\u7b49\u5de6\u6d3e\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98\u4e36\u5199\u4e86\u6b4c\u9882\u7ea2\u519b\u7684\u300a\u897f\u884c\u6f2b\u8bb0\u300b\u7684\u57c3\u5fb7\u52a0.\u65af\u8bfa\u7b49\u5de6\u503e\u8bb0\u8005\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u4ee3\u8868\u65b0\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u6587\u5316\u4e36\u540e\u6765\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u6743\u5a01\u9f3b\u7956\u7684\u8d39\u6b63\u6e05\u7b49\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u5c31\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f88\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u4eb2\u5317\u4eac\uff08\u7ea2\u8272\u653f\u6743\uff09\u7684\u58f0\u97f3\u3002<\/span><\/div>
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\u540e\u6765\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u591a\u90fd\u662f\u8d39\u6b63\u6e05\u7684\u5f1f\u5b50\u3002\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u4e5f\u5c5e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6d3e\u522b\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u4ed6\u7684\u5b66\u672f“\u51fa\u8eab”\u66f4\u5de6\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7740\u540d\u7684\u4eb2\u5171\u5b66\u8005\u8fc8\u514b.\u5965\u514b\u68ee\u4f2f\u683c\uff08Michel Oksenberg\uff09\u7684\u5f1f\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/div>
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1992\u5e74\u6211\u5728\u590f\u5a01\u5937“\u4e1c\u897f\u65b9\u4e2d\u5fc3”\u505a\u8bbf\u95ee\u7814\u7a76\u65f6\uff0c\u6b63\u597d\u662f\u5965\u514b\u68ee\u4f2f\u683c\u4ece\u5361\u7279\u653f\u5e9c\u5378\u4efb\u540e\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u5f53\u603b\u88c1\uff0c\u66f4\u8fd1\u8ddd\u79bb\u77e5\u9053\u4e0d\u5c11\u4ed6\u7684\u5de6\u503e\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u5f53\u5e74\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u4fdd\u5b88\u6d3e\u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u5bb6\u7f57\u68ee\u7ecd\uff08A.M. Rosenthal\uff09\u66fe\u76f8\u5f53\u62a8\u51fb\u5965\u514b\u68ee\u4f2f\u683c\u5bf9\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u7ee5\u9756\u548c\u6d46\u7cca\u5934\u8111\u3002<\/span><\/div>
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\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\uff08David Shambaugh\uff09\u662f\u4e54\u6cbb•\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5927\u5b66\uff08George Washington University\uff09\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u8457\u540d\u7684\u5f53\u4ee3\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u9887\u6709\u540d\u6c14\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ffb\u8bd1\u5e76\u51fa\u7248\u8fc7\u4ed6\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u5b98\u65b9\u5a92\u4f53\u4e5f\u63f4\u5f15\u8fc7\u4ed6\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u300a\u4eba\u6c11\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u6d77\u5916\u7248\u8fd8\u4ecb\u7ecd\u8fc7\u4ed6\uff1b\u4eca\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u4e0b\u5c5e\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u5b66\u9662\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u628a\u4ed6\u5217\u4e3a“\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u4e13\u5bb6”\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f4d\uff0c\u4ec5\u6b21\u4e8e\u7ea6\u7ff0•\u970d\u666e\u91d1\u65af\u5927\u5b66\uff08Johns Hopkins University\uff09\u9ad8\u7ea7\u56fd\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u7814\u7a76\u9662\uff08School of Advanced International Studies\uff09\u7684\u6234\u7ef4•M•\u5170\u666e\u987f\uff08David M. Lampton\uff09\u3002\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u6559\u6388\u6700\u8fd1\u5728\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\uff08Wall Street Journal\uff09\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u6fc0\u70c8\u8fa9\u8bba\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u79f0“\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u6700\u540e\u9636\u6bb5\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb”\uff0c\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u53ef\u80fd\u906d\u9047\u7684\u8986\u706d“\u4e5f\u8bb8\u4f1a\u662f\u6f2b\u957f\u3001\u6df7\u4e71\u3001\u66b4\u529b\u7684”\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u8d5e\u540c\u4ed6\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u90a3\u6709\u5e8f\u800c\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u9762\u5177\u4e0b\uff0c\u63a9\u76d6\u7740\u6267\u653f\u515a\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e0e\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u66f4\u4e3a\u575a\u633a\u3002\u5728\u672c\u6b21\u91c7\u8bbf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u56de\u7b54\u4e86\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/span><\/div>
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\u50a8\u767e\u4eae\uff08Chris Buckley\uff09\u662f\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u8bb0\u8005\u3002<\/span><\/div>
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▲\u82f1\u56fd\u5e7f\u64ad\u516c\u53f8\uff08BBC\uff093\u670818\u65e5\u53d1\u8868\u7f72\u540d\u8499\u514b\u8bc4\u8bba\uff1a\u900f\u89c6\u4e2d\u56fd\uff1a\u4e2d\u5171\u7edf\u6cbb\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83\u5417\uff1f<\/span><\/div>
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\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\uff08David Shambaugh\uff09\u57283\u67086\u65e5\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u8bc4\u8bba\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u5f00\u59cb\u8fdb\u5165\u5c3e\u58f0\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u6267\u653f\u628a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e26\u5230\u4e86\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5a92\u4f53\u8bc4\u8bba\u4eba\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0d\u503c\u4e00\u54c2\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u5a92\u4f53\u51fa\u73b0\u9a73\u65a5\u58f0\u97f3\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u5de8\u5927\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u897f\u65b9\u8206\u8bba\u5f71\u54cd\u5de8\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/div>
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\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\uff08David Shambaugh\uff093\u67086\u65e5\u5728\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u957f\u6587\uff0c\u6307\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u6b8b\u5c40\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4ed6\u5217\u4e3e\u4e86\u4e94\u9053\u88c2\u75d5\u4ee5\u8bf4\u660e\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5982\u4e0d\u901a\u8fc7\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\u5f25\u8865\uff0c\u53ea\u4f1a\u52a0\u5feb\u672c\u60f3\u901a\u8fc7\u9ad8\u538b\u63a7\u5236\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u82cf\u8054\u5d29\u6e83\u5f0f\u547d\u8fd0\u3002<\/span><\/div>
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▲\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\uff08VOA\uff093\u670819\u65e5\u62a5\u9053\uff1a\u88f4\u654f\u6b23\u8bc4\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u6587\u7ae0\u53ca\u7f8e\u5bf9\u534e“\u5171\u8bc6”<\/span><\/div>
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\u534e\u76db\u987f—\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e54\u6cbb•\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5927\u5b66\uff08George Washington University\uff0c \u7b80\u79f0GW\uff09\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u5b66\u8005\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\uff08David Shambaugh\uff093\u67086\u65e5\u5728\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u8868\u8ff0\u4e86\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e2d\u5171\u524d\u666f\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u89c2\u5bdf\u4eba\u58eb\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5c06“\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u7edf\u6cbb\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u5927\u620f\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u6f14”\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u516c\u4e4b\u4e8e\u4f17\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u754c\u548c\u5b66\u672f\u754c\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u524d\u666f\u8fbe\u6210\u4e86\u5171\u8bc6\u3002<\/span><\/div>
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