{"id":50435,"date":"2015-10-25T22:33:00","date_gmt":"2015-10-25T22:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=50435 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Summers\uff09\u5c31\u4e00\u518d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u4e3a\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u53ca\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u589e\u957f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4ee4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u603b\u9700\u6c42\u505c\u6ede\u4e0d\u524d\u53ca\u6536\u7f29\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u540e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u59cb\u7ec8\u65e0\u6cd5\u5065\u5eb7\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6839\u672c\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4fdd\u6301\u96f6\u606f\u6216\u8d85\u4f4e\u606f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e5f\u96be\u4ee5\u6709\u529b\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u82e5\u8fc7\u65e9\u52a0\u606f\u66f4\u4f1a\u4ee4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u300c\u6b7b\u706b\u300d\uff0c\u6b64\u6240\u4ee5\u8428\u9ed8\u65af\u4e00\u76f4\u5f3a\u529b\u53cd\u5bf9\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u6536\u7d27\u94f6\u6839\u3002\u4ed6\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u8005\u53c8\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u8fc7\u53bb20\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u505c\u6ede\u3001\u840e\u7f29\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u4e5f\u5728\u4e8eSecular Stagnation\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\u8f6c\u53d8\uff08\u52b3\u52a8\u4eba\u53e3\u51cf\u5c11\u3001\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\uff09\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u653f\u7b56\u5931\u8bef\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div>\u4eba\u53e3\u7ea2\u5229\u51e0\u4e4e\u8017\u5c3d<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div>\u56de\u770b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u52b3\u52a8\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u53ca\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u589e\u957f\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8fd9\u65e2\u5f97\u529b\u4e8e\u4e94\u3001\u516d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6025\u901f\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u9769\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6253\u7834\u300c\u5927\u9505\u996d\u300d\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u53ca\u6548\u7387\u66b4\u5347\u3002\u53ef\u662f\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u7ea2\u5229\u53ca\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u7ea2\u5229\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u5df2\u51e0\u4e4e\u8017\u5c3d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52b3\u52a8\u4eba\u53e3\u56fa\u7136\u5f00\u59cb\u8fdb\u5165\u8d1f\u589e\u957f\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u519c\u6751\u4e5f\u518d\u6ca1\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u5269\u4f59\u5ec9\u4ef7\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6d41\u8fdb\u57ce\u5e02\uff0c\u800c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u5219\u56e0\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u50f5\u5316\u53ca\u6c11\u95f4\u793e\u4f1a\u53d7\u538b\u800c\u505c\u6ede\u4e0d\u524d\uff0c\u4e8b\u500d\u529f\u534a\u3002\u524d\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u5d29\u76d8\u53ca\u66b4\u529b\u6551\u5e02\u6b63\u662f\u6df1\u5c42\u6539\u9769\u5bf8\u6b65\u96be\u884c\u7684\u660e\u8bc1\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u53e3\u7ea2\u5229\u8017\u5c3d\uff0c\u6539\u9769\u505c\u6ede\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u7387\u4e0d\u524d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b63\u6b65\u65e5\u672c\u540e\u5c18\u9677\u8eab\u4e8e\u957f\u671f\u505c\u6ede\uff08Secular Stagnation\uff09\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u81ea\u62d4\u3002<\/div><div><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u6709\u4eba\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0a\u5b63\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u67096.9%\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u589e\u901f\u8fdc\u80dc\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e0d\u7528\u592a\u62c5\u5fc3\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u5176\u5b9e\u6709\u70b9\u63a9\u8033\u76d7\u94c3\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u6c34\u4efd\u751a\u591a\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u666f\u65f6\u4e3a\u4e86\u7a33\u4f4f\u4fe1\u5fc3\u66f4\u9700\u8981cook the 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Stagnation\u4e0d\u662f\u6025\u98ce\u66b4\u96e8\u5f0f\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9634\u5e72\u5f0f\u7684\u840e\u7f29\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u8fdb\u5165\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u4eba\u5305\u62ec\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u5b98\u5458\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd9\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u6ce1\u6cab\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7206\u7834\u7684\u540e\u9057\u75c7\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f31\u52bf\u5feb\u5c31\u4f1a\u8fc7\u53bb\u3002\u800c\u5f53\u65f6\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u867d\u4e0d\u50cf\u4e03\u3001\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u822c\u751f\u6c14\u52c3\u52c3\uff0c\u4f46\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u7ef4\u6301\u6e29\u548c\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u666f\u6c14\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7b97\u592a\u5dee\u3002\u76f4\u5230\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u4ece\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u5b66\u754c\u624d\u731b\u7136\u53d1\u89c9\u65e5\u672c\u5373\u4f7f\u628a\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f3\u96f6\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u653f\u5e9c\u591a\u5e74\u8d64\u5b57\u9884\u7b97\u4e5f\u672a\u80fd\u91cd\u62fe\u6614\u65e5\u7684\u5149\u8f89\uff0c\u5e76\u4ece\u300c\u5931\u843d\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u300d\u53d8\u6210\u300c\u5931\u843d\u7684\u56db\u5206\u4e00\u4e16\u7eaa\u300d 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