{"id":50680,"date":"2015-11-01T17:33:00","date_gmt":"2015-11-01T17:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=50680 "},"modified":"2015-11-01T17:33:00","modified_gmt":"2015-11-01T17:33:00","slug":"50680-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=50680","title":{"rendered":"\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u7ec8\u7ed3\u4e00\u80ce\u5316 \u8fd9\u662f\u5bfc\u706b\u7ebf"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><span style=\"font-size: 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style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">2013\u5e74\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1(IMF)\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u63d0\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8def\u6613\u65af\u8f6c\u6369\u70b9(Lewis Turning Point)\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u300c\u8def\u6613\u65af\u8f6c\u6369\u70b9\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u52b3\u52a8\u4eba\u53e3\u4ece\u589e\u53d8\u51cf\u7684\u6839\u672c\u6027\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5fc5\u7136\u51fa\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8f6c\u53d8\uff1b\u5f53\u8f6c\u6369\u70b9\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u4eba\u53e3\u4ece\u539f\u6765\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u53d8\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u8282\u90fd\u4f1a\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u52b3\u529b\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u840e\u7f29\uff0c\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u5229\u6da6\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6GDP\u589e\u957f\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/span><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><div><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">IMF\u539f\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8f6c\u6369\u70b9\uff0c\u8981\u52302020\u81f32025\u624d\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u4e0d\u6599\u8f6c\u53d8\u5f97\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u8fd8\u5feb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6839\u672c\u6027\u3001\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u5168\u5c40\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u5df2\u620f\u5267\u6027\u5730\u4e8e\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u548c\u4eca\u5e74\u521d\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/span><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><\/div><div><\/div><div><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">\u5728\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u3001\u4e0a\u6d77\u548c\u5317\u4eac\u90fd\u6709\u529e\u4e8b\u5904\u7684\u91ce\u6751\u8bc1\u5238\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6691\u5047\u516c\u5e03\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c2001\u81f32014\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6bcf\u5e74\u65b0\u589e\u52b3\u52a8\u4eba\u53e3(\u5373\u6bcf\u5e74\u8fdb\u5165\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u4e00\u4ee3\u5de5\u4eba)\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u6709\u6240\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u52302015\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u5374\u5f00\u59cb\u7531\u589e\u53d8\u51cf\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u51cf\u5e45\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u840e\u7f29\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u5feb\uff1a2001\u5e74\u81f32005\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5e74\u65b0\u589e1500\u4e07\u4eba\u30012006\u5e74\u81f32010\u6bcf\u5e74\u4ecd\u589e700\u4e07\u30012011\u5e74\u81f32015\u539f\u4f30\u8ba1\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u52a0250\u4e07\uff0c\u4f46\u4eca\u5e74\u521d\u5f00\u59cb\u7531\u589e\u53d8\u51cf\u30012025\u5e74\u81f32030\u4f30\u8ba1\u6bcf\u5e74\u751a\u81f3\u51cf400\u4e07\u4eba\u3002<\/span><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">\u62a5\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u66f4\u503c\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u4f4e\u5de5\u8d44\u7684\u5ec9\u4ef7\u52b3\u52a8\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u5df2\u5230\u4e86\u6781\u9650\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u4ece\u57ce\u5e02\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6570\u91cf\u6bd4\u4f8b(job offers-to-seekers ratio)\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u75312010\u52302014\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u90fd\u662f\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u52302014\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\uff0c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5f00\u59cb\u9006\u8f6c\uff0c\u4ece\u5347\u53d8\u8dcc\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u516c\u53f8\u300cQuanton Data\u300d\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u300c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u62db\u8058\u6307\u6570\u300d\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u521d\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u7684\u62db\u8058\u6570\u91cf\u6301\u7eed\u840e\u7f29\uff0c8\u6708\u548c9\u6708\u90fd\u521b\u65b0\u4f4e\u3002<\/span><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4ece\u519c\u6751\u5230\u57ce\u5e02\u627e\u5de5\u7684\u5ec9\u4ef7\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u6539\u53d8\u8fc7\u53bb30\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u53d8\u4e3a\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u52b3\u529b\u4f9b\u4e0d\u5e94\u6c42\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5bfc\u81f4\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u7d27\u5f20\u3002\u5ec9\u4ef7\u52b3\u52a8\u4eba\u53e3\u4f9b\u5e94\u5230\u4e86\u6781\u9650\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u5de5\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u5de5\u5382\u90fd\u9020\u6210\u5de8\u5927\u538b\u529b\u3002\u7f8e\u56fdAlcoa\u94dd\u4e1a\u516c\u53f810\u6708\u521d\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u5168\u9762\u840e\u7f29\uff1b\u5168\u7403\u91cd\u5de5\u4e1a\u5de8\u4eba\u5f00\u62d3\u5c65\u5e26(Caterpillar)10\u6708\u521d\u4e5f\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u9500\u552e\u7684\u8bbe\u5907\u6570\u91cf\u5927\u51cf\uff0c\u987b\u88c1\u5458\u4ee5\u8282\u7701\u6210\u672c\uff1b\u4e0eCaterpillar\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u82f1\u56fdJCB\u516c\u53f8\uff0c10\u6708\u4e5f\u5ba3\u5e03\u88c1\u5458\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eca\u5e74\u524d\u516d\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u9500\u552e\u6536\u5165\u51cf\u5c11\u4e00\u534a\u3002\u6709\u5173\u62a5\u544a\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u5317\u4eac\u5ba3\u5e03\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u540e\u4e24\u5929\uff0c\u91ce\u6751\u8bc1\u5238\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5f53\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eca\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u4eba\u53e3\u660e\u663e\u840e\u7f29\uff0c\u5bf9\u5317\u4eac\u9020\u6210\u5927\u9707\u52a8(a major shock)\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4eca\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u63a8\u51fa\u8fde\u4e32\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u3001\u653e\u5bbd\u623f\u8d37\u7ba1\u5236\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u518d\u63a8\u57fa\u7840\u5efa\u8bbe\u3002<\/span><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">\u5317\u4eac\u5ba3\u5e03\u7ec8\u6b62\u4e00\u80ce\u5316\u653f\u7b56\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e03\u9c81\u91d1\u65af\u5b66\u9662\u4e1c\u4e9a\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4efb\u535c\u777f\u54f2(Richard Bush)\u4e5f\u8bc1\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52b3\u52a8\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u521d\u5f00\u59cb\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u4ed6\u53c8\u63d0\u51fa\u5173\u4e8e\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u5e74\u9f84\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570(median 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