{"id":55886,"date":"2016-04-30T05:59:00","date_gmt":"2016-04-30T05:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=55886 "},"modified":"2016-04-30T05:59:00","modified_gmt":"2016-04-30T05:59:00","slug":"55886-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=55886","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u5b66\u8005\uff1a\u4e2d\u5171\u8fdb\u5165\u6f2b\u957f\u8870\u843d\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\u5728\u6cb3\u5317\u7701\u77f3\u5bb6\u5e84\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u4e2d\u5171\u5723\u5730\u897f\u67cf\u5761\u53c2\u89c2\u7684\u9752\u5e74\u56e2\u4f53\u3002\uff08\u8d44\u6599\u7167\uff09\"<\/a><\/div>\u5728\u6cb3\u5317\u7701\u77f3\u5bb6\u5e84\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u4e2d\u5171\u5723\u5730\u897f\u67cf\u5761\u53c2\u89c2\u7684\u9752\u5e74\u56e2\u4f53\u3002\uff08\u8d44\u6599\u7167\uff09<\/span><\/div>

\u7ee7\u7f8e\u56fd\u77e5\u540d\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u5b66\u8005\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u7ea6\u4e00\u5e74\u524d\u63d0\u51fa\u4e2d\u5171\u7edf\u6cbb\u5df2\u8fdb\u5165\u6b8b\u5c40(endgame)\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u540e\uff0c\u53c8\u6709\u4e00\u540d\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u77e5\u540d\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u5b66\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u7edf\u6cbb\u5df2\u8fdb\u5165\u4e00\u4e2a\u6f2b\u957f\u7684\u8870\u843d\u671f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u65e0\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u8d70\u5411\u53d8\u9769\uff0c\u4f46\u81ea\u4e0a\u800c\u4e0b\u7684\u6539\u9769\u65f6\u673a\u5df2\u7ecf\u9519\u8fc7\uff0c\u672a\u676510-15\u5e74\u540e\uff0c“\u6539\u9769\u5f0f\u9769\u547d”(Refolution)\u5c06\u7ec8\u7ed3\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u4e00\u515a\u4e13\u653f\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u52a0\u5dde\u514b\u83b1\u8499\u7279\u9ea6\u80af\u7eb3\u5b66\u9662\u653f\u5e9c\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u51ef\u514b\u56fd\u9645\u6218\u7565\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4efb\u88f4\u654f\u6b234\u670828\u65e5\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5168\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a(National Endowment for Democracy)\u4e3e\u529e\u7684\u4e00\u573a\u6709\u5173\u4e2d\u56fd\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u4e0a\u518d\u6b21\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4ed6\u63a5\u53d7\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u8bb0\u8005\u5085\u624d\u5fb7(Mike Forsythe)\u72ec\u5bb6\u4e13\u8bbf\u65f6\u5c31\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e00\u515a\u4e13\u5236\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u96be\u4ee5\u6c38\u4e45\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<\/span><\/h5>

\u88f4\u654f\u6b23\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u5177\u5907\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6<\/strong><\/p>

\u88f4\u654f\u6b23\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u5177\u5907\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u800c\u672a\u676510-15\u5e74\u540e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u53ea\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u6210\u719f\u3002\u4ee5\u4eba\u5747\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u5e73\u4ef7(PPP)\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u4eba\u5747\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u4e3a13500\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6b63\u597d\u5904\u4e8e\u53d1\u751f\u653f\u6cbb\u8f6c\u578b\u8303\u56f4\uff087500-25000\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u7684\u4e2d\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u8981\u7d20\u662f\u6210\u4eba\u7684\u6587\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u6309\u6210\u5e74\u4eba\u7684\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u5e74\u9650\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u76ee\u524d\u6210\u5e74\u4eba\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u65f6\u95f4\u5e73\u5747\u4e3a7\u5e74\u534a\uff0c\u4e5f\u6070\u597d\u5904\u4e8e\u8f6c\u578b\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u4e2d\u503c\u3002\u5341\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u4e5f\u5c06\u63d0\u9ad8\u52308\u5e74\u534a\uff0c\u800c\u4e141990\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u671f\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u6269\u62db\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d7\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u548c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8981\u8fdc\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u540c\u7b49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u6bd4\u6027\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5373\u5730\u5904\u4e9a\u6d32\u3001\u4e2d\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u6216\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u6267\u653f\u5728\u8fbe\u5230\u540c\u4e00\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u6c34\u5e73\u65f6\u90fd\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u67d0\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u3002​<\/span><\/p>

\"\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u4eba\u6c11\u5927\u4f1a\u5802\uff0c\u5728\u4f1a\u89c1\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u9ad8\u5b98\u4e4b\u524d\uff082016\u5e743\u670815\u65e5\uff09\"\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u4eba\u6c11\u5927\u4f1a\u5802\uff0c\u5728\u4f1a\u89c1\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u9ad8\u5b98\u4e4b\u524d\uff082016\u5e743\u670815\u65e5\uff09<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div>

\u88f4\u654f\u6b23\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0d\u65ad\u6210\u719f\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u653f\u6743\u4f53\u7cfb\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u8870\u843d\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u5929\u5b89\u95e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6267\u653f\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u538b\u8feb(repression)\u548c\u6069\u60e0(patronage)\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8150\u8d25\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u4e00\u4e2a\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\u6765\u7ef4\u6301\u7edf\u6cbb\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f53\u7cfb\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u74e6\u89e3\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u95f4\u7684\u56e2\u7ed3\u88ab\u5168\u9762\u6253\u7834\uff0c\u6700\u660e\u663e\u7684\u4f8b\u8bc1\u5c31\u662f2012\u5e74\u5bf9\u539f\u4e2d\u5171\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u6cbb\u5c40\u59d4\u5458\u3001\u91cd\u5e86\u5e02\u59d4\u4e66\u8bb0\u8584\u7199\u6765\u7684\u5ba1\u5224\u3002“\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u81ea\u6587\u9769\u7ed3\u675f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6267\u653f\u7cbe\u82f1\u6bd4\u8fc7\u53bb\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u671f\u90fd\u611f\u5230\u56f0\u60d1\u3001\u62c5\u5fe7\u3001\u6050\u60e7\u548c\u6124\u4e16\u5ac9\u4fd7\u3002\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5371\u8a00\u8038\u542c\uff01\u4ed6\u4eec\uff08\u7cbe\u82f1\u4eec\uff09\u8ff7\u5931\u4e86\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u8def\u5728\u4f55\u65b9\u3002”\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u6539\u9769\u5f0f\u9769\u547d\u5c06\u7ed3\u675f\u4e00\u515a\u4e13\u653f<\/strong><\/p>

\u88f4\u654f\u6b23\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u751f\u653f\u6cbb\u8f6c\u578b\u5c06\u4f1a\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u9009\u9879\uff1a\u6539\u9769\u3001\u9769\u547d\u6216\u4e8c\u8005\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5373\u4ed6\u6240\u8bf4\u7684“\u6539\u9769\u5f0f\u9769\u547d”(Refolution)\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u884c\u81ea\u4e0a\u800c\u4e0b\u7684\u6539\u9769\u65f6\u673a\u5df2\u7ecf\u9519\u8fc7\uff0c\u6539\u9769\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\u6b63\u5728\u5173\u95ed\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u5df2\u7ecf\u5173\u95ed\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u65f6\u4e0d\u518d\u6765\u3002\u4f46\u518d\u6b21\u53d1\u751f\u50cf1989\u5e74\u516d\u56db“\u5929\u5b89\u95e8\u4e8b\u4ef6“\u90a3\u79cd\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7fa4\u4f17\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u90a3\u6837\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u9547\u538b\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a“\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u662f\u6539\u9769\u5f0f\u9769\u547d(refolution)\u3002\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u52302025\u5e74\u62162030\u5e74\uff0c\uff08\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff09\u5728\u957f\u671f\u505c\u6ede\u540e\uff0c\u6267\u653f\u7cbe\u82f1\u5728\u7edd\u671b\u4e4b\u4e0b\u63a8\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u6539\u9769\u8005\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u4ed6\uff08\u5979\uff09\u80fd\u591f\u5e26\u9886\u5927\u5bb6\u8d70\u51fa\u4e00\u6761\u8def\u3002\u8fd9\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u7684\u5206\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u77ed\u6682\u7684\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u5f97\u5230\u89e3\u653e\u5e76\u88ab\u52a8\u5458\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u90a3\u548c1989\u5e74\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u975e\u5e38\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u90a3\u6b21\u5dee\u70b9\u5c31\u53d1\u751f\u4e86(a close call)\u3002”<\/span><\/p>

\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\uff1a\u82cf\u8054\u57ae\u53f0\u5386\u65f6<\/strong>27\u5e74<\/strong><\/p>

\"2016\u5e744\u670828\u65e5\uff0c\u88f4\u654f\u6b23\uff08\u5de6\u4e8c\uff09\u548c\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\uff08\u53f3\u4e00\uff09\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5168\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u4e3e\u884c\u7684\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\u8bb0\u8005\u6797\u67ab\u62cd\u6444\uff09\"2016\u5e744\u670828\u65e5\uff0c\u88f4\u654f\u6b23\uff08\u5de6\u4e8c\uff09\u548c\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\uff08\u53f3\u4e00\uff09\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5168\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u4e3e\u884c\u7684\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\u8bb0\u8005\u6797\u67ab\u62cd\u6444\uff09<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div>

\u88f4\u654f\u6b23\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u8870\u843d\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6f2b\u957f\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f10-15\u5e74\u3002“\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8981\u6211\u53bb\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u8bf4\u51fa\u4e2d\u5171\u8870\u843d\u7684\u8d77\u59cb\u70b9\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f2012\u5e74\uff0c\u8584\u7199\u6765\u6848\u662f\u4e2a\u6807\u5fd7\uff0c\u8fd9\u6070\u90222011\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u901f\u5f00\u59cb\u653e\u7f13\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u8870\u843d\u5e76\u975e\u662f\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u5e76\u975e\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u653f\u4f53\u3002”\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5168\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a4\u670828\u65e5\u4e3b\u529e\u7684\u8fd9\u6b21\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u77e5\u540d\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u5b66\u8005\u3001\u4e54\u6cbb\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f(David Shambaugh)\u4e5f\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u8870\u843d\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u671f\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a“\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u8981\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5217\u5b81\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u8870\u843d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u671f\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u4f1a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u77ac\u65f6\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u7206\u70b8\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u957f\u671f\u7684\u3001\u6f2b\u957f\u7684\u8870\u843d\u3002\u524d\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u8870\u843d\u5927\u6982\u59cb\u4e8e1964\u5e74\u3002\u4ece\u5b83\u5f00\u59cb\u8870\u843d\u5230\u6700\u7ec8\u89e3\u4f53\u8017\u65f627\u5e74\u3002”<\/span><\/p>

\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f2015\u5e743\u6708\u66fe\u5728\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e2d\u5171\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u8fdb\u5165\u6b8b\u5c40\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u90a3\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u5199\u5230\uff0c“\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u672b\u65e5\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u672b\u65e5\u7684\u65c5\u9014\u4e0a\u8d70\u5f97\u6bd4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u8fd8\u8981\u8fdc\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u4ece\u77e5\u9053\u4ece\u73b0\u5728\u5f00\u59cb\u5230\u5b83\u7ed3\u675f\u524d\u7684\u8def\u4f1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u5b50\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u5b89\u5b9a\u7684\u3002”<\/span><\/p>

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