{"id":62727,"date":"2016-04-01T09:26:00","date_gmt":"2016-04-01T09:26:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=62727 "},"modified":"2016-04-01T09:26:00","modified_gmt":"2016-04-01T09:26:00","slug":"62727-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=62727","title":{"rendered":"\u83ab\u4e4b\u8bb8\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\uff1a\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u5145\u6ee1\u6df7\u4e71"},"content":{"rendered":"

 \"\"<\/p>

2015\u5e743\u67086\u65e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e54\u6cbb.\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\uff08David L. Shambaugh\uff09\u5728\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u3008\u4e2d\u56fd\u5373\u5c06\u5d29\u574f\u3009\uff08The Coming Chinese Crackup\uff09\u4e00\u6587\uff0c\u6587\u7ae0\u5217\u4e3e\u4e86\u4e94\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6807\u5fd7\u6027\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e25\u91cd\u5d29\u574f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u987f\u65f6\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3002<\/span><\/div>
 <\/div>

1989\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5173\u65bc\u4e2d\u5171\u7edf\u6cbb\u5373\u5c06\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u9884\u8a00\u5e76\u4e0d\u5c11\u89c1\uff0c\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5f15\u8d77\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e00\uff0c\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u672c\u4eba\u4e0e\u4e2d\u5171\u5b98\u65b9\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ffb\u8bd1\u5e76\u51fa\u7248\u8fc7\u4ed6\u7684\u7740\u4f5c\uff0c\u5b98\u65b9\u5a92\u4f53\u4e5f\u63f4\u5f15\u8fc7\u4ed6\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff1b2015\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u4e0b\u5c5e\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u5b66\u9662\u8fd8\u628a\u4ed6\u5217\u4e3a\u300c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u4e13\u5bb6\u300d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f4d\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\uff0c\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u66fe\u7ecf\u5bf9\u4e2d\u5171\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u524d\u666f\u6709\u76f8\u5bf9\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\uff0c\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u548c\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u9ece\u5b89\u53cb\uff08Andrew J. Nathan\uff09\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u88ab\u770b\u51fa\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u300c\u97e7\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u300d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5021\u5bfc\u8005\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u8fd9\u4e24\u4f4d\u7f8e\u56fd\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u7814\u7a76\u4e13\u5bb6\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\uff0c\u5bf9\u65bc\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d70\u5411\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u6709\u7740\u5de8\u70c8\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u9ece\u5b89\u53cb\u57282003\u5e741\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u65bc\u7f8e\u56fd\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u7684\u3008\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u3009\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u300c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u7531\u6781\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u5411\u7ecf\u5178\u5a01\u6743\u653f\u6743\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4f3c\u4e4e\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e86\u300d\u3002\u800c\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u57282007\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\uff1a\u6536\u7f29\u4e0e\u8c03\u9002\u300b\uff08China’s Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation, 2008\uff09\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u901a\u8fc7\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u9002\u5e94\uff0c\u6709\u6f5c\u529b\u53bb\u514b\u670d\u6216\u904f\u5236\u5305\u62ec\u8150\u8d25\u5728\u5185\u7684\u8bf8\u591a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u4f46\u4e24\u4eba\u5374\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\u7ffb\u8f6c\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5a01\u6743\u5e73\u7a33\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u53bb\u5e74\u5728\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u7684\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u662f\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4eba\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u7ffb\u8f6c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u897f\u65b9\u4e3b\u6d41\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u65bc\u4e2d\u5171\u7edf\u6cbb\u672a\u6765\u56fe\u666f\u5f00\u59cb\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u4ed6\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u300c\u4e13\u5236\u6b63\u4e25\u91cd\u538b\u8feb\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4f53\u5236\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u5d29\u6e83\u70b9\u3002\u7ec8\u7ed3\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u62d6\u5ef6\u3001\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u6df7\u4e71\u300d\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u5c31\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c2016\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u7684\u65b0\u4e66\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u300b\uff08China’s Future\uff09\u51fa\u7248\uff0c\u4ed6\u7ee7\u7eed\u547c\u5e94\u5176\u4e00\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u66f4\u8be6\u7ec6\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u4e66\u4e2d\u5199\u5230\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4fdd\u63012009\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u5f3a\u786c\u5a01\u6743\u8def\u7ebf\uff0c\u5c31\u5c06\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u50cf\u5927\u591a\u6570\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u9677\u5165\u4e2d\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u9677\u9631\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u5316\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5230\u67d0\u4e2a\u70b9\u5c31\u4f1a\u300c\u7a81\u7136\u6298\u65ad\u300d\u3002\u5f88\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u5f53\u521d\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u5177\u6709\u8c03\u9002\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u56fe\u666f\u622a\u7136\u76f8\u53cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u66f4\u5f15\u4eba\u77a9\u76ee\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u8f6c\u5411\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ec5\u89c1\u65bc\u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\u8eab\u4e0a\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u6700\u5148\u65bc2003\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u97e7\u6027\u5a01\u6743\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u9ece\u5b89\u53cb\uff0c2009\u5e74\u5c31\u5728\u3008\u5a01\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u975e\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u3009\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u300c\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u65b9\u5f0f\u4ecd\u7136\u5c06\u662f\u5929\u5b89\u95e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u90a3\u6837\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u300d\uff0c\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7b14\u8005\u4e5f\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u8868\u8fbe\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff1b\u59822015\u5e7411\u6708\u5728\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u76ca\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u3008\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5728\u4e2d\u5171\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u9ec4\u660f\u3009\uff08The Twilight of Communist Party Rule in China\uff09\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u7c4d\u534e\u88d4\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u88f4\u654f\u6b23\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u300c<\/span>\u4e2d\u5171<\/span><\/a>89\u5f8c\u7ef4\u6301\u653f\u6743\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5df2\u7ecf\u65e0\u6cd5\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5374\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u901f\u5176\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\u300d\u3002\u897f\u65b9\u4e3b\u6d41\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u65bc\u4e2d\u5171\u7edf\u6cbb\u672a\u6765\u56fe\u666f\u786e\u5b9e\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u97e7\u6027\u5e7b\u8c61\u7684\u51fa\u73b0<\/strong><\/p>

\u4e2d\u5171\u5177\u6709\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u8c03\u9002\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\uff0c\u81ea\u6bdb\u6cfd\u4e1c\u53bb\u4e16\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u5bfb\u6c42\u6709\u522b\u65bc\u4f20\u7edf\u8ba1\u5212\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4ee5\u5b9e\u7528\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e76\u975e\u6ca1\u6709\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u5728\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u6240\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u5f53\u65f6\u5c1a\u5904\u5728\u5a01\u6743\u7edf\u6cbb\u4e0b\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u81ea\u6c11\u515a\u957f\u671f\u4e00\u515a\u6267\u653f\u7684\u65e5\u672c\u6240\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u4e1c\u4e9a\u5a01\u6743\u53d1\u5c55\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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