{"id":62771,"date":"2016-04-02T20:54:00","date_gmt":"2016-04-02T20:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=62771 "},"modified":"2016-04-02T20:54:00","modified_gmt":"2016-04-02T20:54:00","slug":"62771-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=62771","title":{"rendered":"\u201c\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u89c2\u5bdf\u201d\u7f51\u7ad9\u521b\u529e\u8005\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u9769\u547d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\uff08\u53c2\u4e0e<\/span>2016<\/span>\u5e74<\/span>4<\/span>\u6708<\/span>3<\/span>\u65e5<\/span>\u8baf\uff09<\/span><\/p>

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\u7f57\u5170•\u6c83\u68ee\uff08<\/span> “<\/span>\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u89c2\u5bdf<\/span>“<\/span>\u7f51\u7ad9\u521b\u529e\u8005\uff09<\/span><\/p>

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\u4ecb\u7ecd<\/span><\/p>

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\u9999\u6e2f<\/span><\/p>

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\u5728<\/span>2014<\/span>\u5e74\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u9769\u547d\uff0c“\u96e8\u4f1e\u8fd0\u52a8”\uff0c\u5c1d\u8bd5\u8feb\u4f7f\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u56de\u8ba9\u5317\u4eac\u5728<\/span>2017<\/span>\u5e74\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u8bf4\u4e86\u7b97\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u578b\u8d77\u4e49\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\u5931\u8d25\u4e86\u3002\u9999\u6e2f\u653f\u5e9c\u6700\u540e\u5e76\u672a\u9000\u7f29\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u5f53\u65f6\u5728\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u793a\u5a01\u8005\u9700\u8981\u4e09\u4ef6\u4e1c\u897f\uff1a\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff0c\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u652f\u6301\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c\u8be5\u8fd0\u52a8\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u8054\u76df\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5360\u4e2d\u3001\u5b66\u8054\uff0c\u548c\u5176\u5b83\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u662f\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u9762\u5bf9\u653f\u5e9c\u9547\u538b\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u52a8\u6447\u4e86\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u6297\u8bae\u589e\u957f\u5230\u4e0d\u8fc7\u51e0\u5341\u4e07\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u867d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u4e0d\u591f\u7684\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u7531\u4e8e\u76ee\u6807\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u5f88\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u8d77\u4e49\u3002\u4eba\u6c11\u5fc5\u987b\u8feb\u4f7f\u653f\u5e9c\u5c48\u670d\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u5fc5\u987b\u53d6\u5f97\u80dc\u5229\u3002\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u5411\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u7684\u6240\u6709\u6c11\u4f17\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u51fb\u8d25\u7684\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u8d77\u4e49\u91cc\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u56e2\u961f\u5e94\u96c6\u4e2d\u7cbe\u529b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6269\u5927\u6297\u8bae\u7684\u4eba\u6570\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u8d77\u4e49\u53ef\u4ee5\u50cf\u6d77\u5578\u4e00\u6837\u51fb\u57ae\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u8ba9\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u8d77\u4e49\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\u8d70\u4e0a\u8857\u5934\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u5f00\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u6765\u4fdd\u6301\u6297\u8bae\u573a\u9762\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u8857\u9053\u4e0a\u548c\u7b49\u7740\u88ab\u902e\u6355\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u5728\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u6297\u8bae\u6d3b\u52a8\u4f1a\u8513\u5ef6\u5230\u5185\u5730\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u7279\u5de5\u4eec\u975e\u5e38\u5389\u5bb3<\/span>—<\/span>\u50cf\u98df\u8089\u52a8\u7269\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e9b\u989d\u5916\u7684\u6b65\u9aa4\u5c06\u662f\u5fc5\u9700\u7684\u3002\u8981\u60f3\u9f13\u52b1\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u5728\u5927\u9646\u57ce\u5e02\u793a\u5a01\uff0c\u6c11\u4f17\u5fc5\u987b\u88ab\u6fc0\u6012\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u5931\u53bb\u6050\u60e7\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8ba9\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u6050\u60e7\u7684\u6700\u597d\u529e\u6cd5\u662f\u8ba9\u4ed6\u76f8\u4fe1\u67d0\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u662f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

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 <\/p>

\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u662f\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u602a\u7269\u3002\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u5ba1\u67e5\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u5f88\u4e86\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u88ab\u704c\u8f93\u8c0e\u8a00\uff0c\u8bf4\u515a\u662f\u6551\u4e16\u4e3b\u3002\u6c11\u4f17\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u4e0b\u9769\u547d\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u5ba1\u67e5\u548c\u6d17\u8111\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u4ed6\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u4e86\u771f\u76f8\uff0c\u77e5\u9053\u600e\u5e7a\u88ab\u9a97\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u6124\u6012\u8d77\u6765\u53cd\u6297<\/span> \u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

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 <\/p>

\u4ee5\u4e2a\u4f53\u6216\u5c0f\u56e2\u4f53\u4e3a\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4eec\uff0c\u53ef\u5bf9\u5185\u5730\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u5899\u58c1\u8fdb\u884c\u9769\u547d\u6807\u8bed\u7684\u6d82\u9e26\u548c\u5ba3\u4f20\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u975e\u5e38\u5bb9\u6613\u5730\u4f20\u64ad\u5230\u5168\u56fd\u5404\u5730\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u6765\u51fb\u57ae\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u5ba1\u67e5\u5236\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4e00\u4e2a\u5ba3\u4f20\u6d3b\u52a8\u5f80\u5f80\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9769\u547d\u7684\u7b26\u53f7\u3001\u6807\u8bed\u548c\u4f20\u5355\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5c31\u62ff\u9999\u6e2f\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b83\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u717d\u52a8\u6027\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u7b26\u53f7\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u96e8\u4f1e\u7684\u7167\u7247\u3002\u5728\u9ed1\u6697\u7684\u63a9\u62a4\u4e0b\uff0c\u6d3b\u52a8\u8005\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u55b7\u6f06\u548c\u6a21\u7248\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u65e0\u5904\u4e0d\u5728\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u5fc5\u662f\u4e00\u628a\u4f1e\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b26\u53f7\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u5404\u79cd\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5927\u9646\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f<\/span>89.64<\/span>\uff0c\u5929\u5b89\u95e8\u5e7f\u573a\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f“\u6c11\u4e3b”\u4e24\u5b57\u3002\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u9769\u547d\u53e3\u53f7\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u7b26\u53f7\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4f20\u5355\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u7ec6\u8282\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u9769\u547d\u53e3\u53f7\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u8981\u6c42\u548c\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u7f6a\u884c\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u63cf\u8ff0\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u8d34\u5728\u5899\u4e0a\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5404\u79cd\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u62ff\u5230\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6cd5\u8f6e\u529f\u7684“\u4e5d\u8bc4\u5171\u4ea7\u515a”\u5c31\u662f\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5386\u53f2\u7f6a\u884c\u7684\u6781\u597d\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u8fd1\u671f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u8865\u5145\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5730\u4e0b\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u91cd\u70b9\u4e0d\u5e94\u5728\u4e8e\u6253\u5012\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u3002\u5e94\u8be5\u8bb0\u4f4f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f6c\u578b\u5e94\u5206\u6210\u4e24\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff1a\u63a8\u7ffb\u653f\u6743\uff0c\u548c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b26\u5408\u56fd\u5bb6\u5386\u53f2\u548c\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u8fd0\u8f6c\u826f\u597d\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\u5728\u4e0e\u4e2d\u5171\u5bf9\u6297\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u9700\u5c31\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u9762\u800c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd0\u52a8\u4f1a\u53d1\u5c55\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f1a\u662f\u4ec0\u5e7a\u6837\u7684<\/span>, <\/span>\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u7ed9\u4e88\u4eba\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b<\/span>—<\/span>\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u672a\u6765\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u3002\uff08\u6ce8\uff1a\u8fd9\u7ed9\u6211\u7406\u7531\u5728\u6b64\u4ecb\u7ecd\u6211\u7684\u7b80\u6613\u6307\u5357<\/span>—<\/span>\u6c11\u4e3b\u8bfe\u7a0b\u7684\u4e2d\u6587\u8bd1\u672c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4f17\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u6c11\u4e3b\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u8ba8\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\u63a8\u884c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

http:\/\/www.dictatorwatch.org\/books\/LessonsinDemocracyChineseSimplified.pdf<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u6563\u7684\u3001\u6ca1\u6709\u7b49\u7ea7\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9769\u547d\u6027\u7684\u717d\u52a8\u6d3b\u52a8\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u793a\u5a01\u6e38\u884c\u6765\u8bf4\u4e5f\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u8fd0\u52a8\u9886\u8896\u4e4b\u95f4\u5206\u6b67\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u8fd0\u52a8\u9886\u8896\u88ab\u6355\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8ba9\u8fd0\u52a8\u6301\u7eed\u8fdb\u884c\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u8981\u5c3d\u6700\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u5730\u907f\u514d\u88ab\u902e\u6355\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u793a\u5a01\u6e38\u884c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u8d70\u4e0a\u8857\u5934\u5bf9\u5185\u5bf9\u5916\u6765\u8bf4\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9632\u5fa1\u3002\u5982\u679c\u653f\u5e9c\u7279\u5de5\u5f00\u59cb\u902e\u6355\uff0c\u6c11\u4f17\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u88ab\u6355\u7684\u4eba\u7ed9\u8425\u6551\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u51b2\u51fb\u793a\u5a01\u8005\u88ab\u5173\u62bc\u7684\u8b66\u5bdf\u5c40\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u591c\u95f4\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u5ba3\u4f20\u6218\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5c0f\u5fc3\u8c28\u614e\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002\u6d3b\u52a8\u5fc5\u987b\u7ecf\u8fc7\u6f14\u4e60\uff0c\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u6d82\u9e26\u548c\u4f20\u5355\u88ab\u6563\u53d1\u524d\u5c31\u8981\u505a\u597d\u7a7f\u7740\u4e0d\u540c\u8863\u670d\u7684\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u8981\u7edd\u5bf9\u4fdd\u5bc6\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u544a\u8bc9\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u4f60\u505a\u4e86\u4ec0\u5e7a\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u7ed3\u8bba<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e2d\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u56e2\u4f53\u3002\u5728\u524d\u53f0\u7684\u9886\u8896\u4eec\u548c\u5728\u80cc\u540e\u505a\u76f4\u63a5\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u8005\u627f\u53d7\u7740\u6700\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u5c31\u662f\u5176\u5b83\u6e38\u884c\u548c\u5730\u4e0b\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8005\u4eec\u3002\u7136\u540e\u662f\u6297\u8bae\u8005\u4eec\u3002\u7136\u540e\u662f\u5176\u5b83\u5927\u4f17\u3002\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u5bf9\u7acb\u9762\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u4eec\uff1b\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6b63\u5f0f\u538b\u5236\u5de5\u5177\u5305\u62ec\u519b\u961f\u548c\u8b66\u5bdf\uff1b\u8fd8\u6709\u4fbf\u8863\u7279\u5de5\u4eec\u3002\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e2d\u95f4\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u8ba9\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6c11\u4f17\u52a0\u5165\u793a\u5a01\u6e38\u884c\uff1b\u8ba9\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u4e00\u8d77\u627f\u62c5\u98ce\u9669\uff08\u98ce\u9669\uff0f\u56de\u62a5\u6cd5\u5219\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\uff09\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\u8ba9\u72ec\u88c1\u9636\u7ea7\u6210\u5458\u548c\u7279\u5de5\u4eec\u79d8\u5bc6\u52a0\u5165\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76ee\u6807\u90fd\u8fbe\u6210\u4e86\uff0c\u90a3\u5e7a\u4e2d\u5171\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u63a8\u7ffb\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u6c11\u4e3b\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u5e94\u5f97\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u5fc5\u987b\u9760\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u4f17\u9769\u547d\u6765\u5b8c\u6210\u3002\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u6c11\u4f17\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u5728\u4e00\u56fd\u4e24\u5236\u7684\u539f\u5219\u91cc\u634d\u536b\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6743\u5229\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u4f7f\u547d\u662f\u8054\u7cfb\u7740\u7684\u3002\u9999\u6e2f\u672c\u571f\u5c45\u6c11\u5fc5\u987b\u901a\u8fc7\u793a\u5a01\u6765\u4fdd\u62a4\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6765\u5e2e\u52a9\u5927\u9646\u6c11\u4f17\u6765\u8981\u6c42\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u6765\u521b\u9020\u9769\u547d\u5ba3\u4f20\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u8fbe\u5230\u5e7f\u6cdb\u53cd\u6297\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u6c11\u4f17\u7684\u5fc3\u613f\u624d\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u6ee1\u8db3\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u624d\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u5b81\u9759\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

DICTATOR WATCH<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

(www.dictatorwatch.org)<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Contact: Roland Watson, roland@dictatorwatch.org<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

CHINA<\/span>: A NEW DEMOCRACY REVOLUTION<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

March 27, 2016<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Many people may not be aware of it, but – democracy-wise – things are<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

heating up in China. At its recent plenary meeting, the National People’s<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Congress (the “parliament” of the Communist Party), emphasized “national<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

security” against “domestic subversion.” The regime has furthered vowed to<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

act against “infiltration, subversion and sabotage by hostile forces.”<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

President Xi Jinping was threatened in an open letter about the direction<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

of the country’s reform, and which included a demand for his resignation.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Students in Hong Kong have launched a pro-independence party.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Into this mix, we offer the following article, and which has been<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

published simultaneously in both the traditional and simplified Chinese<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

character sets. We will be working to distribute the article into mainland<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

China and Hong Kong.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Please post and share, including on twitter, wechat and weibo.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

http:\/\/www.dictatorwatch.org\/ChinaRevolution.html<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

http:\/\/www.dictatorwatch.org\/ChinaRevolutionTraditional.pdf<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

http:\/\/www.dictatorwatch.org\/ChinaRevolutionSimplified.pdf<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

CHINA<\/span>: A NEW DEMOCRACY REVOLUTION<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

By Roland Watson<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Dictator Watch<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

March 2016<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Introduction<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Behind the scenes, the Communist Party of China is worried, if not in an<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

actual panic. It has mismanaged both the economy and financial markets.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

And, it is involved in a never-ending, and escalating, war with the people<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

of the country, who want human rights and democracy. The pressure the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

communist leaders face will never go away. While for the moment they may<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

have extreme power and wealth, they can never relax.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

For the economy, China became the world’s factory, but now foreign<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

consumers do not want so many goods. Even worse, the leaders blocked the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

formation of a middle class (which would normally follow a long period of<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

economic expansion), and which would have created a new source of demand.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Their fear: A middle class would insist on democratic change. They can’t<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

have that. Instead, they followed the dictator’s playbook, and kept the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

bulk of the population impoverished. The people were able to work in the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

factories, certainly, but at the wages of a serf.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

The principal beneficiaries of the economic activity were the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

apparatchiks. They were then encouraged to flock to the stock market, with<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

the promise that the Party would keep the prices rising forever. Here,<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

though, the top leaders made a mistake. They manipulated the market (and<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

the broader economy – this is a common pattern in corrupt developing<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

nations) so that, as the largest investors of all, they would pocket<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

astronomical sums. But, in the process they ignored its underlying, and<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

immutable, rules – that greater reward requires greater risk, and that<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

what goes up will come down. Chinese stock prices bubbled up (along with<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

housing prices), and then rapidly deflated. The lower-level apparatchiks<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

lost a large part of the wealth they had accumulated from running the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

sweatshops, and were saddled with large loans. Now, there is no way to<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

re-inflate the bubbles, or resume legitimate economic growth (the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

published economic data is dubious if not a complete fantasy); and, to top<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

it off, the currency, the Yuan, is under pressure. A currency reflects a<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

nation’s economy. If the latter weakens, the former does as well, and<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

which international speculators – hedge funds – do their best to<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

accelerate. The one thing the communists had going for them, an economic<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

machine, and which replaced the storied “iron rice bowl” and kept the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

masses pacified, is failing.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

The Party fired its head securities regulator, a sacrificial victim – he<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

just did what he was told to do, and is now trying to assure the world –<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

and the Chinese people, that it can prevent a crisis in the economy, and<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

stock market, and currency. We shall see.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

All of this economic and financial turmoil provides an ideal opportunity<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

for the people to throw off their oppression and to rise up. Nonetheless,<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

the communists remains strong, and brutal, so – as everyone realizes –<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

democratic change will be difficult to achieve. But, it is coming. The<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

dictators cannot maintain control forever. And, with a bold approach,<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

their day of reckoning can be brought forward, by years if not decades.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Hong Kong<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

One advantage the mainland people of China have is their co-citizenry, the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

residents of Hong Kong. Because of the one country-two systems structure,<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

they are not so repressed – or pacified. The mainland can follow Hong<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Kong’s lead, which in turn puts the onus on its residents. They must fight<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

not only to maintain their own democracy, but to provide an example for<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

all the people of China.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

There was a pro-democracy revolution in Hong Kong in 2014, the Umbrella<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

movement, to force the local government to back down from giving Beijing a<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

say over who may run for office in the upcoming 2017 election. This was a<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

large uprising, but ultimately it failed. The Hong Kong Administration did<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

not back down. As I wrote in an article at the time, the protestors needed<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

three things: fierce leaders; growing numbers; and international support.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

For the first, the movement took the form of a coalition, including Occupy<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Central, Scholarism, and other groups. Some of their leaders were fierce,<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

but in the face of a government crackdown others wavered. For the second,<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

the protests grew to the low hundreds of thousands. This number, while<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

massive, proved to be insufficient. Finally, there was no real<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

international support.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Of the three factors, I believe the second was the most important. Had the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

movement grown to a million or more, it would have succeeded. The<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

question, then, is why it didn’t. The government crackdown of course<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

dissuaded more people from joining, as was its goal, and counter-protests<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

were organized as well. But, while these were substantial barriers, the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

real issue was the movement’s organization. Everyone was out protesting<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

and the leaders were on stage and subject to arrest. While it was<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

difficult if not impossible to anticipate what would happen, the movement<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

should have created a separate, behind-the scenes, organizing team<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

dedicated to increasing the turnout, day-by-day. This should have included<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

media relations – public calls on both traditional and social media for<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

more protestors, and also efforts to counter government lies.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Since the objective was not achieved, it’s clear that Hong Kong needs<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

another uprising. The people must force the government to yield. There<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

must be a victory, most importantly, to show all the people of China that<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

the Communist Party can be beaten. In this new uprising, Hong Kong<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

organizers should further concentrate on increasing the size of the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

protest until it washes over the government like a tsunami, including by<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

having a plan to get as many people as possible out when the protest is<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

triggered, and then with a separate team, not on the streets and subject<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

to arrest, to keep the demonstration growing.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Mainland China<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Ideally, a new protest in Hong Kong would spread to the mainland. But,<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

since Party agents there are so repressive – they are like predators, a<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

number of additional steps will be required. To encourage large numbers of<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

people to demonstrate in the mainland’s cities, the public needs to be<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

agitated such that they are so angry they lose their fear. And, the best<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

way to lose one’s fear is to believe that something is possible.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

People on the mainland do protest, of course, and quite often: against<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

poor working conditions, pollution, government corruption, and other<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

grievances. Local conditions are often so bad that the people will fight<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

back. Furthermore, for fear of igniting larger protests, the authorities<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

regularly back down. The model, therefore, is in place. What is required<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

is an underground movement to create widespread agitation for human rights<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

and democracy. Then, with the people angry and the country unsettled, the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

stage is set for a real uprising, for example, in response to new events<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

in Hong Kong.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

The Communist Party is terrible: A monster. But, because of censorship<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

most Chinese are poorly informed about this. Instead, they are fed lies<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

that the Party is the savior. The people need an underground revolutionary<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

movement to counter this. Once they know the truth, how they have been<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

deceived, they will be angry enough to rise up.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Fortunately, this type of movement is straightforward to create. If done<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

with care, it can further involve minimal risk: indeed, less that<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

protesting. What I am referring to is an agitation-propaganda, or<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

agit-prop, campaign.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Agitators, singly and in small groups, can pepper the walls of the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

mainland’s cities with revolutionary graffiti and fliers. A call for this<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

type of action could further easily be spread around the country, in<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

defiance of the Party’s censorship, using social media.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

A propaganda movement often has a number of distinct elements, including<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

revolutionary images, slogans, and fliers. For instance, for Hong Kong –<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

the territory needs an agitation movement as well, the image could be a<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

picture of an umbrella. Activists, using a stencil and spray paint, could<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

put it everywhere, under the cover of darkness. Of course, it doesn’t have<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

to be an umbrella. The image could be anything. For example, for the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

mainland it could be the characters for June 4, 1989, referencing the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Tiananmen Square democracy movement, or simply the word “democracy,” etc.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

There could be a number of different images, and accompanying<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

revolutionary slogans.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Fliers in turn fill in the story, providing substance to the demands of<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

the slogans. Short descriptions of Party crimes and corruption should be<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

taped to walls, or just left where people can find them. Indeed, Falun<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Gong’s Nine Commentaries is an excellent source of information about the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Party’s historic atrocities and crimes, and which could be supplemented<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

with information on more recent events.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Actually, the underground movement should not only focus on the job of<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

removing the dictators. It is important to remember that a democratic<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

transition has two stages: Overthrowing the regime; and installing a<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

well-functioning democracy, tailored to the nation’s history and<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

conditions. The Chinese people need to have a wide-ranging discussion<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

about the second stage, at the same time that they confront the Party.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Through doing this, the movement will also develop a positive focus, on<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

what a democratic China will look like, as well as give the people hope<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

that such a future is achievable. (Note: this is a good reason to<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

infiltrate the Chinese translation of my short guide, Lessons In<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Democracy. The Chinese people can have a better discussion about<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

implementing the democratic system if they understand how it is meant to<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

work.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

http:\/\/www.dictatorwatch.org\/books\/LessonsinDemocracyChineseTraditional.pdf<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

http:\/\/www.dictatorwatch.org\/books\/LessonsinDemocracyChineseSimplified.pdf)<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Finally, the most effective structure for a revolutionary agit-prop<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

campaign is one that is decentralized and non-hierarchical. This holds for<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

protests as well. This reduces the common problem of disputes arising<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

among the leaders, and it further keeps the movement alive in the event<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

that activists are arrested. Even so, it is imperative that everything<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

possible be done to avoid arrest. For protests, having huge numbers of<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

people in the streets is a defense in and of itself. If regime agents do<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

make arrests, the demonstrators can often be “un-arrested” as well, such<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

as by swarming the police stations where they are held. For nighttime<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

propagandists, though, precautions are essential. Actions should be<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

rehearsed, in different clothes, before any graffiti is written or fliers<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

placed. And, absolute secrecy should be maintained. Don’t tell anyone what<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

you have done.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

Conclusion<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

In a popular movement there are many groups. The onstage leaders, and<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

underground activists who do direct action, bear the greatest risk. Next<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

are other organizers, both for protests and underground action. Then come<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

the protestors, and finally the rest of the population. Opposed to the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

movement are the top dictators; their formal repression apparatus<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

including the army and the police; and plain clothes agents and spies. The<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

intermediate objectives of the movement are to get more members of the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

public to join the protest; to get more people to bear more risk<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

(risk\/reward holds here as well); and to get dictatorship members and<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

agents to join the movement in secret. If these objectives are achieved,<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

the regime can be overthrown.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

The people of China deserve democracy, but it will take a popular<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

revolution to achieve it. The people of Hong Kong also need to defend<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

their rights under the one country, two systems principle. These two<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

missions are linked. The indigenous of Hong Kong must demonstrate to<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

preserve their rights, and through doing so help lead the people of the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

mainland to demand change, who in turn must engender a collection of<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

underground activists, to create revolutionary propaganda and through it<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

the conditions for widespread rebellion. Only through this can the<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

people’s aspirations be fulfilled, and the country reach a stable and<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

tranquil equilibrium.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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