{"id":68972,"date":"2016-12-07T16:27:00","date_gmt":"2016-12-07T16:27:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=68972 "},"modified":"2016-12-07T16:27:00","modified_gmt":"2016-12-07T16:27:00","slug":"68972-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=68972","title":{"rendered":"\u5ddd\u666e\u5373\u5c06\u5c31\u804c\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u5927\u5e45\u7f29\u6c34 \u52a0\u5f3a\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u5236"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u5927\u5e45\u7f29\u6c34\u5f15\u53d1\u5fe7\u8651<\/span><\/p>

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\u6839\u636e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u5176\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u5143\u5347\u503c\u3001\u8d44\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\u7684\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u4eca\u5e74<\/span>11<\/span>\u6708\u518d\u5ea6\u7f29\u6c34\u8fd1<\/span>700<\/span>\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f29\u6c34\u5e45\u5ea6\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u8fd9\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u7f29\u6c34\u5e45\u5ea6\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u3002\u6574\u4f53\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u7f29\u6c34\u901f\u5ea6\u5728\u52a0\u5feb\u3002\u4eca\u5e74<\/span>9<\/span>\u6708\uff0c\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0b\u8dcc<\/span>190<\/span>\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c<\/span>10<\/span>\u6708\u65f6\u5219\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u8fd1<\/span>460<\/span>\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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 <\/p>

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 <\/p>

\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u5c40\u63d0\u5347\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9884\u671f\u9020\u6210\u7f8e\u5143\u575a\u633a\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5404\u79cd\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u4ef7\u503c\u7f29\u6c34\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u7f29\u6c34\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ece\u672a\u516c\u5f00\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u5176\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u4e2d\u6240\u5360\u6bd4\u91cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u6cd5\u65b0\u793e\u5f15\u8ff0\u5e02\u573a\u5206\u6790\u673a\u6784<\/span>Capital Economics<\/span>\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08<\/span>Julian Evans-Pritchard<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u5927\u5e45\u7f29\u6c34\u66f4\u663e\u793a\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u4e3a\u56e0\u5e94\u7f8e\u5143\u5347\u503c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d44\u672c\u5927\u6279\u5916\u6d41\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u5e02\u573a\u5e72\u9884\u529b\u5ea6\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u52a8\u7528\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u8d2d\u4e70\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\uff0c\u4ee5\u7a33\u5b9a\u6c47\u7387\u3002\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u7387\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u7ecf\u8dcc\u81f3\u516b\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u4e5f\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bcc\u8c6a\u5c06\u8d44\u4ea7\u8f6c\u5f80\u56fd\u5916\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u5bb6\u5e02\u573a\u5206\u6790\u673a\u6784\u638c\u63e1\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41\u8fd8\u5728\u52a0\u901f\uff0c<\/span>11<\/span>\u6708\u6709\u8fd1<\/span>800<\/span>\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8f6c\u5f80\u56fd\u5916\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4e3a\u7f13\u89e3\u8d44\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u8fd1\u671f\u51fa\u53f0\u65b0\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e25\u683c\u9650\u5236\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6d77\u5916\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u82cf\u683c\u5170\u7687\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5e08<\/span>Harrison Hu<\/span>\u5411\u6cd5\u65b0\u793e\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\u4e0e\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u8db3\u4ee5\u7834\u574f\u4e2d\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u7cdf\u3002\u6cd5\u56fd\u5916\u8d38\u94f6\u884c<\/span>Natixis<\/span>\u5206\u6790\u5e08<\/span>Alicia Garcia Herrero<\/span>\u4e5f\u5411\u5f6d\u535a\u65b0\u95fb\u793e\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u51fa\u53f0\u7684\u65b0\u63aa\u65bd\u4e5f\u8bb8\u80fd\u7f13\u89e3\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u7f29\u6c34\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u7d27\u63a7\u5236\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41<\/span><\/p>

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\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b27\u76df\u5546\u4f1a\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u4f1a\u5468\u4e09\u79f0\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u7d27\u63a7\u5236\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41\u52a0\u5927\u4e86\u6b27\u6d32\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u5c06\u8d44\u91d1\u8f6c\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u5916\u754c\u6108\u6765\u6108\u62c5\u5fc3\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u5927\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u6c47\u7387\u8d70\u4f4e\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u76d1\u7ba1\u5f53\u5c40\u8fd1\u51e0\u5468\u52a0\u7d27\u4e86\u5bf9\u5916\u6c47\u4ea4\u6613\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41\u7684\u9650\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b27\u76df\u5546\u4f1a\u5728\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u79f0\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u6c47\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40\u4e0a\u5468\u4e3a\u94f6\u884c\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u7a97\u53e3\u6307\u5bfc\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6536\u7d27\u5ba1\u6279\u8d44\u672c\u8d26\u6237\u548c\u6d3e\u606f\u7684\u8de8\u5883\u6c47\u6b3e\uff0c“\u63a7\u5236\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41”\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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 <\/p>

\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b27\u76df\u5546\u4f1a\u79f0\uff0c\u65b0\u89c4\u5c06\u5f71\u54cd<\/span>500<\/span>\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u6c47\u6b3e\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u6c47\u6b3e\u662f\u4ee5\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8fd8\u662f\u5916\u5e01\u8fdb\u884c\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4e0d\u540c\u94f6\u884c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5916\u7ba1\u5c40\u5730\u65b9\u90e8\u95e8\u5bf9\u65b0\u6307\u5f15\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u628a\u95e8\u69db\u8bbe\u5728<\/span>100<\/span>\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u4f4e\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u4f1a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5df2\u77e5\u6653\u4e2d\u56fd\u91c7\u53d6\u4e3e\u63aa\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7ba1\u7406\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41\uff0c\u5e76“\u62c5\u5fc3\u8fd9\u79cd\u5ba1\u6279\u8981\u6c42\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u5458\u4f01\u4e1a\u6c47\u51fa\u8d44\u91d1\u80fd\u529b\u5e26\u6765\u989d\u5916\u8d1f\u62c5”\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4e2d\u56fd\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5409\u83ab\u66fc<\/span>(James Zimmerman)<\/span>\u8868\u793a<\/span>, <\/span>\u5c06\u4ece\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u7ba1\u5c40\u5bfb\u6c42\u6709\u5173\u6b65\u9aa4\u548c\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7684\u6f84\u6e05\u548c\u6307\u5f15\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b27\u76df\u5546\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4f0d\u5fb7\u514b<\/span>(Joerg Wuttke)<\/span>\u8868\u793a<\/span>, <\/span>\u6b64\u4e3e\u4e5f\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u73af\u5883\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u6027\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u5730\u6076\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u5ddd\u666e\u5373\u5c06\u5c31\u804c<\/span> \u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5f3a\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u5236<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

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 <\/p>

\u4e3a\u7f13\u89e3\u8d44\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u8fd1\u671f\u51fa\u53f0\u65b0\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e25\u683c\u9650\u5236\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6d77\u5916\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u9f13\u52b1\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u5927\u4e3e\u8fdb\u519b\u6d77\u5916\u6536\u8d2d\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u7ed9\u56fd\u9645\u5e02\u573a\u5e26\u6765\u51b2\u51fb\u5c06\u8fd1\u4e24\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u8981\u6c42\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\u653e\u6162\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd8\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5bf9\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u6d77\u5916\u8d26\u6237\u865a\u5047\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u8f6c\u8d26\u52a0\u5f3a\u5ba1\u67e5\uff0c\u7981\u6b62\u4e2d\u56fd\u6240\u79f0\u7684“\u975e\u7406\u6027”\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6b64\u4e3e\u4ece\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5e94\u6025\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f53\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7•\u5ddd\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5ddd\u666e\u53d1\u8a93\u8981\u5bf9\u5317\u4eac\u4f7f\u7528\u4e25\u5389\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u5236\u6b62\u4e2d\u56fd“\u5077\u8d70\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u5c97\u4f4d”\u3002\u5ddd\u666e\u8fd8\u53d1\u8a93\u8981\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f“\u8d27\u5e01\u64cd\u7eb5\u56fd”\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u5f81\u6536<\/span>45%<\/span>\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

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 <\/p>

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\u9274\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u4ecd\u7136\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u88ab\u4e25\u91cd\u9ad8\u4f30\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u594b\u4e89\u8fdc\u672a\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u800c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f53\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u5ddd\u666e\u843d\u5b9e\u4ed6\u5a01\u80c1\u8981\u5c06\u4e2d\u56fd\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e3a\u8d27\u5e01\u64cd\u7eb5\u56fd\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u5f81\u6536\u9ad8\u989d\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u79cd\u594b\u4e89\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\u3002<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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