{"id":69113,"date":"2016-12-13T14:06:00","date_gmt":"2016-12-13T14:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=69113 "},"modified":"2016-12-13T14:06:00","modified_gmt":"2016-12-13T14:06:00","slug":"69113-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=69113","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u5171\u5ba1\u67e5\u65e0\u8fdc\u5f17\u5c4a\u7adf\u8981\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300b\u7f8e\u4f5c\u8005\u6539\u7528 \u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53f0\u6e7e\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"media\"Nassim Nicholas Taleb\u5728\u5176\u63a8\u7279\u8d26\u6237\u4e0a\u53d1\u8a00\uff0c\u6297\u8bae\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u5176\u65b0\u4e66\u8fdb\u884c\u8a00\u8bba\u5ba1\u67e5\u3002<\/small>Nassim Nicholas Taleb\u63a8\u7279\u8d26\u6237<\/small><\/div>
 \u4e2d\u5171\u5ba1\u67e5\u4f5c\u5bb6\u8a00\u8bba\u65e0\u5b54\u4e0d\u5165\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u6982\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u60f3\u5230\u8fde\u8fdc\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8457\u540d\u4f5c\u5bb6Nassim Nicholas Taleb\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u81e3\u670d\u4e8e\u5929\u671d\u811a\u4e0b\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5f53\u5c40\u900f\u8fc7\u5370\u5237\u5546\u8981\u6c42Taleb\u7684\u65b0\u4e66\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300b\uff08Antifragile\uff09\u4e2d\u6240\u63d0\u5230\u7684“\u53f0\u6e7e”\u4e00\u5b57\uff0c\u6539\u4e3a\u5317\u4eac\u89c6\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u6b63\u786e\u7684“\u4e2d\u56fd\u53f0\u6e7e”\u3002<\/span><\/div>
 <\/div>
 Taleb\u5bf9\u8fd9\u9879\u65e0\u7406\u8981\u6c42\u5728\u63a8\u7279\u53d1\u6587\u5927\u8086\u6279\u8bc4\uff0c\u5e76\u660e\u767d\u544a\u8bc9\u5bf9\u65b9“\u4f60\u6ca1\u6709\u5ba1\u67e5\u6743”\u3002<\/span><\/div>

\u5728\u65b0\u4e66\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300b\u4e2d\uff0cTaleb\u53ea\u4e24\u6b21\u63d0\u5230“\u53f0\u6e7e”\uff1b\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u6b21\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a“1960\u5e74\uff0c‘\u53f0\u6e7e’\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u8bc6\u5b57\u7387\u6bd4\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u4f4e\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e2a\u4eba\u6536\u5165\u4e5f\u53ea\u6709\u83f2\u56fd\u7684\u4e00\u822c\uff0c\u4f46\u4eca\u5929‘\u53f0\u6e7e’\u7684\u6536\u5165\u662f\u83f2\u56fd\u768410\u500d\u3002”\u5c31\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a“\u53f0\u6e7e”\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u900f\u8fc7\u5370\u5237\u5546\u8981\u6c42Taleb\u4fee\u6539\u5b57\u773c\uff0c\u4ece“\u53f0\u6e7e”\u6539\u4e3a“\u4e2d\u56fd\u53f0\u6e7e”\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u6839\u636eTaleb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5df2\u7ecf\u6539\u6362\u4e86\u5370\u5237\u5546\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5f97\u5230\u51fa\u7248\u5546Random House\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u611f\u5230\u6124\u6012\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f5c\u5bb6\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u5199\u7684\u4e66\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5728\u5927\u9646\u5370\u5237\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u63a5\u53d7\u5f53\u5730\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5ba1\u67e5\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u6709\u53cb\u4eba\u5728\u63a8\u7279\u5e16\u6587\u8bf4\uff0c\u6709\u4e2a\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\u628a\u4ed6\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6587\u5b57\u8f6c\u5e16\u5728\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e00\u4e2a\u51fa\u540d\u7684\u8bba\u575b\u5546\uff0c“\u4f60\u73b0\u5728\u5f88\u53d7\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\u6b22\u8fce\u5462\uff0c\u8c22\u8c22\u4f60”\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u4e0d\u8fc7Taleb\u91cd\u7533\uff1a“\u8fd9\u8ddf\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e00\u70b9\u5173\u7cfb\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5ba1\u67e5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5199\u4f5c\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f5c\u5bb6\uff01”<\/span><\/p>

Taleb\u662f\u9ece\u5df4\u5ae9\u88d4\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u77e5\u540d\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u6548\u5e94\u300b\uff08The Black Swan\uff09\u95fb\u540d\u5168\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3bDaniel Kahneman\u79f0\u8d5e\u4ed6“\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u5bf9\u4e8e‘\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027’\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5”\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u7f51\u6c11\u5bf9\u6b64\u66f4\u662f\u8bae\u8bba\u7eb7\u7eb7\uff0c\u6709\u7f51\u53cb\u8868\u793a“\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u90fd\u6e10\u6e10\u89c1\u8bc6\u523013\u4ebf\u4eba\u53e3\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u73bb\u7483\u5fc3”\u3001“\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u771f\u7684\u4e0d\u51fa\u610f\u5916\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e8b\u90fd\u5e72\u5f97\u51fa\u6765\u554a”\u3001“\u5c0f\u5c0f\u5370\u5237\u5382\uff0c\u7adf\u8981\u5927\u4f5c\u5bb6\u6539\u5b57\uff0c\u6446\u660e\u7f9e\u8fb1\u4f5c\u8005”\u3001“\u6ca1\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u51fa\u7248\u4e5f\u8981\u5ba1\u67e5”\u3001“\u6574\u672c\u4e66\u5c31\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u4e5f\u592a\u95f2\u4e86\u5427”\u3001“\u5370\u5237\u5382\u5c45\u7136\u5ba1\u6838\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8bae”\u3002<\/span> <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nassim Nicholas Taleb\u5728\u5176\u63a8\u7279\u8d26\u6237\u4e0a\u53d1\u8a00\uff0c\u6297\u8bae\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u5176\u65b0\u4e66\u8fdb\u884c\u8a00\u8bba\u5ba1\u67e5\u3002Nassim Ni […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-issues","category-first","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69113","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=69113"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69113\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=69113"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=69113"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=69113"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}