{"id":70218,"date":"2017-01-22T11:14:00","date_gmt":"2017-01-22T11:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=70218 "},"modified":"2017-01-22T11:14:00","modified_gmt":"2017-01-22T11:14:00","slug":"70218-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=70218","title":{"rendered":"\u9ece\u5b89\u53cb\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u8c1c\u9898"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/div>

\u672c\u6587\u4e3a\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u9ece\u5b89\u53cb\uff08Andrew J. Nathan\uff092015\u5e7410\u6708\u5728“\u585e\u7f2a\u5c14∙\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u4e16\u754c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8bb2\u5ea7”\uff08Seymour Martin Lipset Lecture on Democracy in the World\uff09\u4e0a\u6f14\u8bb2\u7684\u8bb2\u7a3f\u3002\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5960\u57fa\u4eba\u3002\u4ed6\u4ece\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u63a2\u8ba8\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u4e0e\u5b58\u5728\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u9ece\u5b89\u53cb\u6559\u6388\u6f14\u8bb2\u7684\u82f1\u6587\u7248\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u6742\u5fd7\u300b(<\/span>Journal of Democracy<\/em>) 2016\u5e744\u6708\u53f7\uff0c\u603b\u7b2c27\u671f\u3002\u4e2d\u8bd1\u6587\u9996\u53d1\u4e8e\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6218\u7565\u5206\u6790\u300b2017\u5e74\u7b2c1\u671f\uff0c2017\u5e741\u670815\u65e5\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u6211\u4e2a\u4eba\u4ece\u6ca1\u6709\u8ddf\u897f\u6469·\u9a6c\u4e01·\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\uff08Seymour Martin Lipset\uff09\u89c1\u8fc7\u9762\uff1b\u6211\u5230\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4ed6\u5df2\u7ecf\u79bb\u5f00\u4e86\u3002\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u5199\u8fc7\u4e00\u7bc7\u81ea\u4f20\u4f53\u6587\u7ae0——\u300a\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff1a\u4e00\u7bc7\u5b66\u672f\u56de\u5fc6\u5f55\u300b\uff0c\u91cc\u9762\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u4ed6\u57281943\u5e74\u6210\u4e3a\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u7684\u7ecf\u8fc7\u3002\u6211\u770b\u5230\u89c9\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u8da3\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\u4ed6\u5f53\u65f6\u5728\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5e02\u7acb\u5b66\u9662\uff08City College\uff09\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7cfb\u62ff\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6559\u804c\uff0c\u800c\u90a3\u4e2a\u6559\u804c\u8981\u6c42\u53d7\u8058\u8005\u5fc5\u987b\u5f97\u662f\u5728\u518c\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u79bb\u90a3\u53ea\u67091\u82f1\u91cc\u8fdc\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e2a\u5761\u518d\u4e0a\u4e2a\u5761\u5c31\u5230\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4ed6\u5c31\u53bb\u4e86\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u3002<\/span>[1]<\/span>\u6211\u5fc3\u60f3\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u8981\u662f\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u9879\u76ee\u4e5f\u50cf\u90a3\u4e48\u7b80\u5355\u5c31\u597d\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u548c\u5e74\u8f7b\u8bb2\u5e08\uff0c\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u5f53\u65f6\u662f\u8ddf\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279·\u83ab\u987f\uff08Robert Merton\uff09\u548c\u4fdd\u7f57·\u62c9\u624e\u65af\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\uff08Paul Lazarsfeld\uff09\u8fd9\u6837\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u73b0\u4ee3\u653f\u6cbb\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u5de8\u5320\u4e00\u8d77\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u3002\u7b49\u5230\u6211\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa60\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u8fdb\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u9662\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u535a\u58eb\u8d44\u683c\u8003\u8bd5\u7684\u5fc5\u8bfb\u4e66\u4e86\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d44\u6df1\u7684\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u4f1a\u62b1\u6028\u5b66\u751f\u4eec\u4e0d\u53bb\u8bfb\u672c\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u8457\u4f5c\u3002\u4f46\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u57281960\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u653f\u6cbb\u4eba\u300b\u662f\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5916\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u4f1a\u53bb\u8bfb\u3002\u7279\u522b\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u662f\u4ed6\u57281959\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u300b\uff08“Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy”\uff09\uff0c\u6536\u5728\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u4e2d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u7ae0\uff0c\u9898\u4e3a\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\uff08“Economic Development and Democracy”\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u5178\u547d\u9898\uff1a“\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d8a\u53d1\u8fbe\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u8d8a\u53ef\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\uff08sustain\uff09\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6”\u3002<\/span>[2]<\/span>\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\uff08\u8bb2\u660e\u662f\u5728\u4e9a\u91cc\u58eb\u591a\u5fb7\u3001\u9a6c\u57fa\u96c5\u7ef4\u5229\u548c\u97e6\u4f2f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4f1a\u6269\u5927\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u4f1a\u652f\u6301\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u5b66\u8005\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\uff09\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u7ed9\u653f\u5e9c\u65bd\u52a0\u66f4\u591a\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/span>[4]<\/span>\u897f\u65b9\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684“\u63a5\u89e6”\uff08engagement\uff09\u653f\u7b56\u4e5f\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9884\u671f\u3002\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u79cd\u63a5\u89e6\u4f1a\u57f9\u80b2\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u4f1a\u63a8\u8fdb\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002\u5728\u906d\u9047\u548c\u5f53\u5c40\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u65f6\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u90fd\u5c3d\u91cf\u907f\u514d\u6311\u6218\u4f53\u5236\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u91c7\u53d6\u89c4\u529d\uff08remonstration\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u58f0\u660e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u4f53\u5236\u89c4\u5219\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5fe0\u8bda\uff0c\u53ea\u6279\u8bc4\u4f4e\u5c42\u7ea7\u5b98\u5458\u7684\u6267\u884c\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u5728\u4f17\u591a\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u5c42\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u90fd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u5929\u6d25\u5e02\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u6c11\u4f17\u5bf9\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u3001\u6cd5\u9662\u548c\u8b66\u5bdf\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\u5ea6\u8d85\u8fc780%\u3002\u5728\u72c4\u5fe0\u84b2\uff08Bruce J. Dickson\uff09\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005“\u5bf9\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6ee1\u610f\u5ea6”\u5e73\u5747\u8fbe\u5230\u4e867.59\uff08\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e3a0—10\uff09\uff0c\u57ce\u5e02\u5c45\u6c11\u548c\u6536\u5165\u6709\u6240\u6539\u5584\u8005\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u5bf9\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u5e9c\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u652f\u6301\u5ea6\u3002\u9648\u6770\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u548c\u8bbf\u8c08\uff08\u89c1\u4ed6\u76842013\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u6ca1\u6709\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u300b\uff3b<\/span>A Middle Class Without Democracy<\/em> \uff3d\uff09\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u8ba4\u540c\u4f53\u5236\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u793e\u4f1a\u9636\u5c42\u66f4\u4e0d\u8d5e\u540c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u8005\u3002[5]<\/font><\/p>

\u6240\u4ee5\u5230\u5e95\u51fa\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u95ee\u9898\uff1f\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u4e2a“\u4f8b\u5916”\u5417\uff1f\uff08“\u4f8b\u5916\u8bba”\u662f\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u6559\u6388\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u6700\u5e38\u8c08\u8bba\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u4ed6\u662f\u6307\u7f8e\u56fd\u800c\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\uff09\u5c31\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u5b58\u5728“\u4e2d\u56fd\u6a21\u5f0f”\u5462\uff1f\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u8fd9\u79cd\u5173\u6ce8\u5386\u53f2\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u594f\u6548\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u72b6\u51b5\u786e\u5b9e\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u9762\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4e5f\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u4eba\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>

 <\/strong><\/p>

\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u72b6\u51b5\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5148\u641e\u6e05\u695a\u6211\u4eec\u5230\u5e95\u5728\u8c08\u8bba\u8c01\u3002\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u5c5e\u4e8e\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c2008\u5e74\u7684\u4e9a\u6d32\u6674\u96e8\u8868\u8c03\u67e5\uff08Asian Barometer Survey\uff09\u5728\u9664\u897f\u85cf\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5168\u90e8\u4eba\u53e3\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u57ce\u5e02\u548c\u519c\u6751\uff09\u4e2d\u62bd\u6837\uff0c\u8bf7\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u56de\u7b54\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ece\u6700\u4f4e\u5230\u6700\u9ad8\u768410\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u5730\u4f4d\u5c42\u7ea7\u79cd\u5904\u5728\u54ea\u4e2a\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u6709 58.2%\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u5c06\u81ea\u5df1\u5b9a\u4f4d\u5728\u4e2d\u95f4\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f5\u52307\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651\u523077.2%\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8868\u793a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u6bd4\u51e0\u5e74\u524d\u66f4\u597d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de5\u4eba\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5bc4\u94b1\u56de\u519c\u6751\u5e2e\u52a9\u5bb6\u5979\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u76d6\u8d77\u4e00\u5ea7\u74e6\u623f\u800c\u4e14\u80fd\u8d2d\u4e70\u4e00\u8f86\u6469\u6258\u8f66\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5979\u6709\u7406\u7531\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0a\u5347\u4e3a\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5979\u662f\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u7528\u6536\u5165\u6765\u754c\u5b9a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u7684\u6536\u5165\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u592a\u5feb\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u6536\u5165\u7fa4\u4f53\u65e0\u6cd5\u7a33\u5b9a\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u9636\u7ea7\u3002\uff08\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u591a\u6837\u7684\u6536\u5165\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u8bf4\u51fa\u4ed6\u4eec\u5230\u5e95\u6323\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u94b1\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u4eba\u5373\u4f7f\u80fd\u4e5f\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u8fd9\u4e48\u505a\u3002\uff09\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4ee5\u6536\u5165\u6765\u754c\u5b9a\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c2005\u5e74\u5c31\u6709\u8d85\u8fc78\u4ebf\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b97\u4f5c\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u768457%\u3002<\/span>[6]<\/span><\/p>

\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u63a2\u7a76\u7684\u3001\u6839\u636e\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5e94\u8be5\u652f\u6301\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u3002\u674e\u666e\u8d5b\u7279\u5728\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u652f\u6301\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u504f\u597d\u65f6\uff0c\u662f\u5c06\u519c\u6751\u5c0f\u5730\u4e3b\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u5c0f\u5546\u4eba\u548c\u767d\u9886\u72ec\u7acb\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4ed6\u5f53\u65f6\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u6240\u5904\u7684\u5178\u578b\u793e\u4f1a\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5360\u6709\u7269\u8d28\u8d22\u5bcc\u548c\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6280\u80fd\u4e0e\u5c0a\u4e25\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u6709\u4e86\u514d\u4e8e\u4e13\u5236\u653f\u5e9c\u5265\u593a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4e86\u5bf9\u8868\u8fbe\u81ea\u5df1\u8bc9\u6c42\u7684\u6743\u5229\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u5728\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\uff08\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5230\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff09\u4e5f\u5c06\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u804c\u4e1a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u5206\u5c42\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6807\u3002\uff08\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u62d2\u7edd\u4f7f\u7528“\u9636\u7ea7”\uff3bclass\uff3d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5728\u9a6c\u514b\u601d\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e2d\u4e0e\u5265\u524a\u548c\u9636\u7ea7\u6597\u4e89\u76f8\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u800c\u5265\u524a\u548c\u9636\u7ea7\u6597\u4e89\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u7684“\u548c\u8c10\u793e\u4f1a”\u4e2d\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u4f7f\u7528“\u9636\u5c42”\uff3bstratum\uff3d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u6765\u4ee3\u66ff\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u6240\u8bf4\u7684“\u9636\u7ea7”\u3002\uff09<\/span><\/p>

\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u6700\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u9636\u5c42\u5206\u7c7b\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u7531\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u5df2\u6545\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u9646\u5b66\u827a\u53ca\u5176\u540c\u4e8b\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u533a\u5206\u4e8610\u79cd\u804c\u4e1a\u7fa4\u4f53\uff0c\u4ece\u9ad8\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\uff08\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\uff09\u5230\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5de5\u4eba\u3001\u519c\u4e1a\u52b3\u52a8\u8005\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u8005\uff08\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\uff09\u3002\u4e2d\u95f4\u9636\u5c42\u5219\u6307\u7684\u662f“\u4e3b\u8981\u4ece\u4e8b\u8111\u529b\u52b3\u52a8\uff0c\u751f\u6d3b\u6765\u6e90\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u9760\u5de5\u8d44\u53ca\u85aa\u91d1\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u8c0b\u53d6\u8f83\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3001\u8f83\u597d\u5de5\u4f5c\u73af\u5883\u548c\u76f8\u5f53\u6c34\u51c6\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u4f11\u95f2\u751f\u6d3b\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u81ea\u4e3b\u6743\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5177\u6709\u826f\u597d\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u3001\u516c\u5fb7\u610f\u8bc6\u53ca\u76f8\u5e94\u4fee\u517b”\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002<\/span>[7]<\/span>\u4ed6\u4eec\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u515a\u653f\u673a\u5173\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u6280\u672f\u4eba\u5458\u3001\u767d\u9886\u529e\u4e8b\u4eba\u5458\u548c\u4e2a\u4f53\u5de5\u5546\u6237\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/strong><\/p>

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 <\/strong><\/p>

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 <\/p>

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 <\/p>

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2008\u5e74\u7684\u4e9a\u6d32\u6674\u96e8\u8868\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u7ed9\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ebf\u7d22\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u8c03\u67e5\u5bf9\u8c61\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u754c\u5b9a\u4e3a\u90a3\u4e9b\u81f3\u5c11\u63a5\u53d7\u8fc7\u4e2d\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u6536\u5165\u53ef\u4ee5\u6ee1\u8db3\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u50a8\u84c4\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u5c45\u6c11\u3002\u7167\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u62bd\u6837\u4e2d\u768414.2%\u53ef\u88ab\u89c6\u4f5c\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u3002<\/span>[17]<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d22\u52a1\u5bbd\u88d5\u3001\u53d7\u8fc7\u76f8\u5bf9\u826f\u597d\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u5c45\u6c11\uff0c\u4e0e\u975e\u4e2d\u4ea7\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u76f8\u6bd4\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u8fbe\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u8fd0\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\uff0829.7%\u5bf918.9%\uff09\uff0c<\/span>[18]<\/span>\u4e5f\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u62bd\u8c61\u7684\u3001\u50cf\u5206\u6743\u548c\u53f8\u6cd5\u72ec\u7acb\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u4ef7\u503c\uff0846.2%\u5bf924.7%\uff09\u3002<\/span>[19]<\/span><\/p>

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2005\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u4e2d\u592e\u515a\u6821\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u8005\u5f20\u4f1f\u7528\u6df1\u5ea6\u8bbf\u8c08\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u5199\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u672c\u5f88\u6709\u89c1\u5730\u7684\u4e66\uff0c\u5728\u4e66\u4e2d\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u6709\u758f\u79bb\u503e\u5411\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u9646\u5b66\u827a\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u9876\u5c16\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\uff08\u6839\u636e\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u60c5\u51b5\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u7279\u6743\u548c\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684“\u7d20\u8d28”\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u4f1a\u662f\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u8c10\u4e0e\u7a33\u5b9a\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5f20\u4f1f\u53d1\u73b0\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u662f\u6c89\u9ed8\u3001\u51b7\u6f20\u548c\u758f\u79bb\u7684\uff1a<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u653f\u6cbb\u758f\u79bb\u662f\u88ab\u52a8\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u51b7\u6f20\uff0c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u901a\u5e38\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u51b7\u6f20\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u758f\u79bb\u5e76\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u758f\u79bb\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u671f\u671b\u5f20\u529b\uff0c\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u671f\u671b\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u91ca\u653e\u7684\u9690\u6027\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u5c01\u95ed\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\u53ef\u4ee5\u538b\u6291\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u70ed\u60c5\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u70ed\u60c5\u79ef\u7d2f\u7740\u529b\u91cf……\u4e00\u65e6\u653f\u6cbb\u758f\u79bb\u663e\u6027\u5316\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\uff0c\u5176\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u538b\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u901a\u5e38\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u66f4\u52a0\u5267\u70c8\u3002<\/span>[21]<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

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\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a<\/span>\u9ebb\u6728<\/strong>\u7684\uff08the politically anesthetized\uff09\u3002\u6211\u7684\u5370\u8c61\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5728\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4ee3\u4e2d\u5c24\u5176\u666e\u904d\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5e74\u8f7b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf91989\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bb0\u5fc6\uff0c\u5bf9\u6587\u5316\u5927\u9769\u547d\u66f4\u662f\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e8b\u4e1a\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u957f\u5927\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u660e\u767d\u653f\u6cbb\u662f\u4e0d\u80fd\u78b0\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u5fc3\u7167\u4e0d\u5ba3\u3002\u4e00\u79cd\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u5938\u5f20\u63cf\u8ff0\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u7cfb\u5217\u300a\u5c0f\u65f6\u4ee3\u300b\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6f02\u4eae\u3001\u5bcc\u6709\u7684\u4e0a\u6d77\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u53ea\u80fd\u5fd9\u4e8e\u5e94\u4ed8\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8863\u670d\u548c\u7231\u60c5\u3002<\/span>[22]<\/span><\/font><\/p>

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\u662f<\/span>\u63a5\u53d7\u8005<\/strong>\uff08acceptors\uff09\u3002<\/span>[23]<\/span><\/font>\u6211\u66fe\u89c1\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ece\u6765\u6ca1\u542c\u8bf4\u8fc7\u5218\u6653\u6ce2\uff0c\u4e5f\u5bf91989\u5e74\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0d\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u662f“\u653f\u6cbb\u601d\u60f3\u8f85\u5bfc\u5458”\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u5730\u6559\u5bfc\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u8981\u5fe0\u8bda\u3002\u6211\u4ece\u8ddf\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4ea4\u8c08\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u611f\u53d7\u662f\uff1a\u4ed6\u4eec\u559c\u6b22\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u5728\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4f53\u5236\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u771f\u76f8\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u51c6\u5907\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u771f\u76f8\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4fdd\u6301\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u8fd8\u662f\u6bd4\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u6bdb\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u4e0a\u4e24\u4ee3\u4eba\u66f4\u81ea\u7531\u3001\u66f4\u597d\u4e86\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u53f2\u5929\u5065\u6240\u8bf4\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4e9a\u6d32\u6674\u96e8\u8868\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f88\u9700\u8981\u800c\u4e14\u9002\u5408\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4f53\u5236\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f88\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e86\uff080—10\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e2d\u67097.22\uff09<\/span>[24]<\/span><\/font><\/p>

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 <\/p>

\u6587\u5316\u7279\u6b8a\u8bba\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>

 <\/strong><\/p>

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\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u5e94\u8be5\u518d\u4e00\u6b21\u9075\u5faa\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u7684\u5f15\u5bfc\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u51e0\u672c\u4e66\u4e2d\u5199\u5230\u7684\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f8b\u5916\u8bba\u6df1\u5165\u89c2\u5bdf\u90fd\u5f3a\u8c03\uff1a\u5236\u5ea6\u6839\u6e90\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6587\u5316\u56e0\u7d20\u81f4\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5177\u6709\u7f3a\u5c11\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u8fd0\u52a8\u3001\u79cd\u65cf\u5206\u88c2\u548c\u53f3\u7ffc\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u65f6\u5e38\u590d\u5174\u7684\u7279\u6027\u3002<\/span>[26]<\/span>\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bba\u65ad\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u95ee\u9898\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u6210\u7acb\uff1a\u8fd9\u79cd\u6001\u5ea6\u662f\u5bf9\u4eca\u5929\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb\u7ee7\u627f\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u73b0\u5b9e\uff08\u4e00\u515a\u5236\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u63a7\u5236\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u5e9e\u5927\u5de5\u4eba\u548c\u519c\u6c11\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\uff09\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u540e\u53d1\u5c55\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u90fd\u9075\u5faa\u4e86\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u4e5f\u76f8\u4f3c\u5730\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u66f4\u4e3a\u58ee\u5927\u4e4b\u524d\u5448\u73b0\u4e0d\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u4e00\u70b9\u90fd\u4e0d\u7279\u6b8a\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u73b0\u653f\u6743\u5f00\u59cb\u5de6\u8f6c\uff08\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5f88\u5c0f\uff09\u5e76\u4fb5\u5bb3\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u5b89\u5b81\u751f\u6d3b\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f1a\u96be\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7ee7\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u6bd5\u4e1a\u751f\u4f1a\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u597d\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u63d0\u9192\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u6ca1\u6709\u8bf4\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u4f1a\u6c38\u8fdc\u652f\u6301\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u7bc7\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u300a“\u6cd5\u897f\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49”——\u5de6\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u53f3\u300b(“‘Fascism’—Left, Right, and Center”)\u91cc\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5f53\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u7a0b\u5ea6\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u652f\u6301\u67d0\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002<\/span>[29]<\/span>\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u81ea\u4ec7\u5916\u7684\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u6b63\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u4e00\u76f4\u4f5c\u4e3a\u652f\u6491\u5176\u5408\u6cd5\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u8d44\u6e90\u6765\u63a8\u5e7f\u7684\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8868\u8fbe\u8fd9\u79cd\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6124\u6012\uff0c\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6307\u8d23\u653f\u5e9c\u53db\u56fd\u6216\u8005\u8f6f\u5f31\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u5c06\u63a8\u52a8\u653f\u6743\u5f80\u66f4\u4e3a\u4e13\u5236\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u90fd\u5145\u6ee1\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4e5f\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u60f3\u6cd5\u8ba9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7ee7\u7eed\u4fdd\u6301\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u771f\u6b63\u62c5\u5fc3\u7684\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u519b\u4e8b\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u89e6\u53d1\u79e9\u5e8f\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u6743\u529b\u6597\u4e89\u3002\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u5371\u673a\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u4e5f\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u62e5\u62b1\u81ea\u7531\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u652f\u6301\u4e00\u4e2a\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\uff08\u9ece\u5b89\u53cb\uff1a\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u3002\u9648\u4e07\u9f99\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u8005\u3002\uff09<\/span><\/p>

[1]<\/span> Seymour Martin Lipset, “Steady Work: An Academic Memoir,” <\/span>Annual Review of Sociology <\/em>22 (1996): 7.<\/font><\/p>

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[2]<\/span> <\/font>Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics<\/em>, expanded and updated ed. (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981), 31.<\/p>

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[3]<\/span> \u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u4e89\u8bae\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u9002\u7528\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u6587\u732e\u7efc\u8ff0\uff0c\u89c1Jie Chen and Chunlong Lu, “Democratization and the Middle Class in China: The Middle Class’s Attitudes Toward Democracy,” <\/span>Political Research Quarterly<\/em> 64 (September 2011): 705–19.<\/font><\/p>

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[4]<\/span> \u5c31\u6b64\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u82f1\u6587\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7efc\u8ff0\uff0c\u89c1Bruce Dickson, <\/span>The Dictator’s Dilemma: The Chinese Communist Party’s Strategy for Survival<\/em> (Oxford University Press, 2016).\u4e2d\u6587\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7efc\u8ff0\uff0c\u89c1 Cheng Li, “Chinese Scholarship on the Middle Class: From Social Stratification to Political Potential,” in Li, ed., <\/font>China’s Emerging Middle Class: Beyond Economic Transformation<\/em> (Washington,D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2010), 55–83.<\/p>

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[5]<\/span> Tianjian Shi, “China: Democratic Values Supporting an Authoritarian System,” in Yun-han Chu et al., eds.,<\/span> How East Asians View Democracy<\/em> (New York: Columbia University Press, 2008), 229; Dickson, appendix to<\/font> Dictator’s Dilemma<\/em>; Jie Chen, A Middle Class Without Democracy: Economic Growth and the Prospects for Democratization in China<\/em> (New York: Oxford University Press, 2013).<\/p>

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[6]<\/span> \u57fa\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u5373\u57282005\u5e74\u6bcf\u4eba\u6bcf\u5929\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u57282\u523020\u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u95f4\uff08\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u5e73\u4ef7\uff09\u3002\u6309\u7167\u6b64\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b97\u51fa\u57282005\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u8d85\u8fc78\u4ebf\u4eba\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b97\u6cd5\u6839\u636eAsian Development Bank, <\/span>Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2010<\/em> (August 2010), 5, <\/font>www.adb.org\/publications\/key-indicators-asia-and-pacific-2010<\/em>.<\/font><\/p>

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[7]<\/span> \u9646\u5b66\u827a\uff08Lu Xueyi\uff09\u7f16\uff0c\u300a\u5f53\u4ee3\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u9636\u5c42\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff08<\/span>Research report on social strata in contemporary China<\/em>\uff09\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\uff1a\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u6587\u732e\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c2002\uff1a252\u3002<\/font><\/p>

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[8]<\/span> \u89c1\u300a\u72ec\u5bb6\u4e13\u8bbf\u9646\u5b66\u827a:\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u4e00\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u300b\uff08 “Lu Xueyi Exclusive Interview: Middle Class Grew by One Percentage Point per Year” \uff09\uff0c\u65b0\u534e\u7f51\uff0c2009\u5e748\u670817\u65e5\uff0c <\/span>http:\/\/news.xinhuanet.com\/politics\/2009-08\/17\/content_11894452.htm<\/em> \u3002<\/font><\/p>

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[9]<\/span> Chen and Lu, “Democratization and the Middle Class in China,” 713–14. \u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u3001\u6210\u90fd\u548c\u897f\u5b89\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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[10]<\/span> Luigi Tomba, <\/span>The Government Next Door: Neighborhood Politics in Urban China<\/em> (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2014), 104.<\/font><\/p>

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[11]<\/span> Jean-Louis Rocca, <\/span>A Sociology of Modern China<\/em>, trans. Gregory Elliott (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015), 16.<\/font><\/p>

 <\/p>

[12]<\/span> \u5173\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u89c1: <\/span>http:\/\/knoema.com\/pjeqzh\/gdp-per-capita-by-country-1980-2014?country=China<\/em>;\u5173\u4e8e\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\uff0c\u89c1: World Bank and the Development Research Center of the State Council, People’s Republic of China, <\/font>Urban China: Toward Efficient, Inclusive, and Sustainable Urbanization <\/em>(Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2014), 3; \u5173\u4e8e\u9ad8\u6821\u62db\u751f\uff0c\u89c1: Jing Lin and Xiaoyan Sun, “Higher Education Expansion and China’s Middle Class,” in Li, ed., China’s Emerging Middle Class<\/em>, 222.<\/p>

 <\/p>

[13]<\/span> Lipset, “Steady Work,” 9.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

[14]<\/span> Jessica C. Teets, <\/span>Civil Society Under Authoritarianism: The China Model<\/em> (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014).<\/font><\/p>

 <\/p>

[15]<\/span> Benjamin L. Read, <\/span>Roots of the State: Neighborhood Organization and Social Networks in Beijing and Taipei <\/em>(Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2012), 107.<\/font><\/p>

 <\/p>

[16]<\/span> Haifeng Huang, “International Knowledge and Domestic Evaluations in a Changing Society: The Case of China,”<\/span> American Political Science Review <\/em>109 (August 2015): 613–34.<\/font><\/p>

 <\/p>

[17]<\/span> \u7528\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u754c\u5b9a\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u6bd4\u4e4b\u524d\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u754c\u5b9a\u7684\u8d85\u8fc720%\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8981\u5c0f\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u53bb\u6bd4\u8f83\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\uff0c\u4f46\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e9a\u6d32\u6674\u96e8\u8868\u8c03\u67e5\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u6bd4\u5c06\u5176\u754c\u5b9a\u4e3a\u66f4\u5927\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u66f4\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u3001\u66f4\u5bcc\u88d5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u6bd4\u8f83\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

[18]<\/span> \u4e9a\u6d32\u6674\u96e8\u8868\u8c03\u67e5\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a“\u4f60\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u5728\u4f60\u4eec\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u6709\u591a\u6ee1\u610f\uff1f”\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u4e3a\u8de8\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u56e0\u4e3a\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4e9a\u6d32\u653f\u5e9c\u90fd\u58f0\u79f0\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd9\u79cd\u5927\u4f53\u4e0a\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u6ee1\u610f\u5ea6\u8bc4\u5206\u3002\u8981\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u53c2\u89c1Jonas Linde and Joakim Ekman, “Satisfaction with Democracy: A Note on a Frequently Used Indicator in Comparative Politics,” <\/span>European Journal of Political Research<\/em> 42 (May 2003): 391–408.<\/font><\/p>

 <\/p>

[19]<\/span> \u8fd9\u4e9b\u662f\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u6674\u96e8\u8868\u8c03\u67e5\u5217\u51fa\u76847\u9879“\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u4ef7\u503c”\u4e2d\u81f3\u5c11\u652f\u63014\u9879\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e16\u754c\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u8c03\u67e5\uff08World Values Survey\uff09\u548c\u5bf9\u4e9a\u6d32\u4e0e\u975e\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u66f4\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6301\u6709\u66f4\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u8fd9\u4e00\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u666e\u9002\u6027\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u89c1Christian Welzel, “The Asian Values Thesis Revisited: Evidence from the World Values Surveys,”<\/span> Japanese Journal of Political Science<\/em> 12 (April 2011): 1–31.<\/font><\/p>

 <\/p>

[20]<\/span> \u5173\u4e8e\u5bf9\u4e9a\u6d32\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9752\u5e74\u4eba\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u7c7b\u4f3c\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u89c1Yun-han Chu and Bridget Welsh, “Millennials and East Asia’s Democratic Future,” <\/span>Journal of Democracy<\/em> 26 (April 2015): 151–64, and Min-hua Huang, Yun-han Chu, and Cao Yongrong, “China: The Impact of Modernization and Liberalization on Democratic Attitudes,” in David Denemark, Robert Mattes, and Richard G. Niemi, eds.,<\/font> Growing Up Democratic: Generational Change in Post-Authoritarian Societies<\/em> (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, forthcoming).<\/p>

 <\/p>

[21]<\/span>\u5f20\u4f1f\uff08Zhang Wei\uff09\uff0c\u300a\u51b2\u7a81\u4e0e\u53d8\u6570\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u5c42\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u6790\u300b\uff08<\/span>Conflict and uncertainty: political analysis of the middle stratum in Chinese society<\/em>\uff09\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\uff1a\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u6587\u732e\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c2005\uff1a406—407\u3002<\/font><\/p>

 <\/p>

[22]<\/span> \u89c1 <\/span>www.youtube.com\/watch?v=q61X3zfBE8g<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

[23]<\/span> \u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c2\u7167\uff1aEva Bellin, “The Dog That Didn’t Bark:The Political Complacence of the Emerging Middle Class (with Illustrations from the Middle East),” in Julian Go, ed., <\/span>Political Power and Social Theory<\/em>, vol. 21 (Bingley, U.K.: Emerald, 2010), 125–41; Kellee S. Tsai, “Capitalists Without a Class: Political Diversity Among Private Entrepreneurs in China,” <\/font>Comparative Political Studies<\/em> 38 (November 2005): 1130–58; Teresa Wright, Accepting Authoritarianism: State-Society Relations in China’s Reform Era <\/em>(Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2010).<\/p>

 <\/p>

[24]<\/span> Tianjian Shi, <\/span>The Cultural Logic of Politics in Mainland China and Taiwan<\/em> (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015), 195. \u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81ea2003\u5e74\u4e9a\u6d32\u6674\u96e8\u8868\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u8c03\u67e5\u3002<\/font><\/p>

 <\/p>

[25]<\/span> Shi, <\/span>Cultural Logic<\/em>. \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u53f2\u5929\u5065\u4f1a\u540c\u610f\u674e\u666e\u585e\u7279\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff1a\u6587\u5316\u4e2a\u548c\u4ef7\u503c\u4f1a\u88ab\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u9010\u6e10\u5730\u5851\u9020\u3002<\/font><\/p>

 <\/p>

[26]<\/span> Seymour Martin Lipset with Earl Raab,<\/span> The Politics of Unreason: Right-Wing Extremism in America, 1790–1977 <\/em>(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1970); Lipset,<\/font> American Exceptionalism: A Double-Edged Sword<\/em> (New York: W.W. Norton, 1996), Lipset with Gary Marks, It Didn’t Happen Here: Why Socialism Failed in the United States<\/em> (New York: W.W. Norton, 2000).<\/p>

 <\/p>

[27]<\/span> Seymour Martin Lipset, “Predicting the Future: The Limits of Social Science,” in <\/span>Consensus and Conflict: Essays in Political Sociology <\/em>(New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction, 1985), 329–60, orig. in Lipset, ed., <\/font>The Third Century: America as a Post-Industrial Society<\/em> (Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, 1979), 1–35.<\/p>

 <\/p>

[28]<\/span> Andrew J. Nathan, “Foreseeing the Unforeseeable,”<\/span> Journal of Democracy <\/em>24 (January 2013): 20–25.<\/font><\/p>

 <\/p>

[29]<\/span> In Lipset, <\/span>Political Man<\/em>, ch. 5.<\/span> <\/span><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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