{"id":75769,"date":"2017-08-06T18:21:00","date_gmt":"2017-08-06T18:21:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=75769 "},"modified":"2017-08-06T18:21:00","modified_gmt":"2017-08-06T18:21:00","slug":"75769-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=75769","title":{"rendered":"\u5362\u5cf0\uff1a\u4efb\u5fd7\u521a\u5148\u751f\u7684\u5815\u843d \u4e3a\u66ff\u65b0\u7279\u9996\u62a4\u822a"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u524d\u91d1\u7ba1\u5c40\u603b\u88c1\u4efb\u5fd7\u521a\u5148\u751f\u65e2\u7136\u613f\u610f\u52a0\u5165\u70ed\u53a8\u623f\u62c5\u4efb\u6797\u90d1\u6708\u5a25\u7684\u8d22\u91d1\u653f\u7b56\u300c\u56fd\u5e08\u300d\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5f97\u4e3a\u5979\u51c6\u5907\u5927\u6d12\u91d1\u94b1\u505a\u5927\u6709\u4e3a\u7279\u9996\u5f00\u8def\u3002\u4f46\u5f00\u8def\u62a4\u9a7e\u4e5f\u5f97\u8bb2\u9053\u7406\u3001\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f97\u62ff\u51fa\u70b9\u57fa\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5427\uff01\u53ef\u60dc\uff0c\u4efb\u5fd7\u521a\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u624b\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u89c2\u70b9\u300d\u4e0d\u4f46\u8ddf\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\u4e0d\u7b26\uff0c\u8fde\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66<\/span>ABC<\/span>\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e5f\u672a\u641e\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u5fc3\u4e00\u610f\u4e3a\u6797\u90d1\u5927\u589e\u5f00\u652f\u9e23\u9523\u5f00\u9053\uff0c\u5b9e\u5728\u4ee4\u4eba\u5931\u671b\u53c8\u9057\u61be\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4efb\u5148\u751f\u5728\u89c2\u70b9\u4e2d\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u7279\u533a\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u592a\u4fdd\u5b88\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u91c7\u53d6\u300c\u5b88\u8d22\u5974\u300d\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5927\u91cf\u76c8\u4f59\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u62d6\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u540e\u817f\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u300c\u7a33\u5065\u6709\u4f59\uff0c\u8fdb\u53d6\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u4ea6\u4e0d\u5408\u65f6\u5b9c\u300d\u3002\u4efb\u5148\u751f\u7684\u8bc4\u8bed\u660e\u663e\u9488\u5bf9\u524d\u8d22\u653f\u53f8\u53f8\u957f\u66fe\u4fca\u534e\u5148\u751f\uff0c\u4e5f\u8ddf\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\u4e00\u4e9b\u300c\u6881\u7c89\u300d\u5982\u9648\u542f\u5b97\u975e\u5e38\u7c7b\u4f3c\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u8bf4\u4ece\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5230\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u90fd\u8bf4\u4e0d\u8fc7\u53bb\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc7\u70ed\u5c06\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u9999\u6e2f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u5f53\u7136\u6bd4\u4e0d\u4e0a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646<\/span>7%<\/span>\u751a\u81f3<\/span>10%<\/span>\u7684\u5347\u5e45\u3002\u53ef\u4e0d\u8981\u5fd8\u8bb0\uff0c\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u9999\u6e2f\u5df2\u8dfb\u8eab\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u884c\u5217\uff0c<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301<\/span>5%<\/span>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u80fd\u6709<\/span>3<\/span>\u81f3<\/span>3.5%<\/span>\u5df2\u7b97\u4e0d\u9519\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u81ea\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u540e\u589e\u957f\u5e73\u5747\u5927\u6982<\/span>2.5%<\/span>\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u81ea\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u8d77\u66f4\u603b\u662f\u5728<\/span>1%<\/span>\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u6574\u4f53\u540c\u6837\u53ea\u6709\u4e0d\u5230<\/span>2%<\/span>\u589e\u957f\u3002\u9999\u6e2f\u8ddf\u4ed6\u4eec\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u5df2\u8f83\u4e3a\u4f18\u5f02\u3002\u4f55\u51b5<\/span>2008<\/span>\u5e74\u51fa\u73b0\u767e\u5e74\u4e00\u9047\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u51e0\u4e4e\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6101\u4e91\u60e8\u96fe\uff0c\u5904\u4e8e\u4e0d\u65ad\u8c03\u6574\u3001\u53bb\u6760\u6746\u7684\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u521b\u65b0\u51e0\u4e4e\u5168\u9762\u505c\u987f\u3002\u76f4\u5230\u8fd1\u4e00\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u624d\u603b\u7b97\u7ad9\u7a33\u9635\u811a\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u6446\u8131\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u5916\u56f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf\u4e0b\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4ecd\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u63a5\u8fd1<\/span>3%<\/span>\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u9996\u5b63<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u66f4\u6709<\/span>4.3%<\/span>\u589e\u957f\u3002\u8fd9\u5f53\u7136\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f46\u8bf4\u653f\u5e9c\u5f00\u652f\u4e0d\u591f\u8fdb\u53d6\u62d6\u6162\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u5374\u8bf4\u4e0d\u8fc7\u53bb\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u518d\u770b\u5176\u5b83\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u5305\u62ec\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u53ca\u901a\u80c0\u66f4\u53cd\u6620\u4efb\u5fd7\u521a\u7684\u65e0\u7406\u3002\u82e5\u8bf4\u653f\u5e9c\u662f\u5b88\u8d22\u5974\u963b\u788d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u90a3\u9999\u6e2f\u8be5\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u91cf\u95f2\u7f6e\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u5e94\u8be5\u4f3c\u6709\u8fd8\u65e0\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u50cf\u65e5\u672c\u90a3\u6837\u51fa\u73b0\u901a\u7f29\u3002\u53ef\u9999\u6e2f\u81ea<\/span>2011<\/span>\u5e74\u6765\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u90fd\u5728<\/span>3.5%<\/span>\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6bd4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684<\/span>full employment<\/span>\uff08\u5168\u6c11\u5c31\u4e1a\uff09\u8bbe\u5b9a\u7684<\/span>4%<\/span>\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u8fd8\u8981\u4f4e\uff0c\u591a\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u90fd\u51fa\u73b0\u8bf7\u4eba\u96be\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u901a\u80c0\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u6b27\u76df\u4e00\u518d\u9677\u4e8e\u901a\u7f29\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8fc7<\/span>2%<\/span>\u4e0a\u4e0b\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5219\u63a5\u8fd1<\/span>4%<\/span>\uff1b\u8981\u4e0d\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\u63d0\u4f9b\u591a\u9879\u8d22\u653f\u5bbd\u514d\u63aa\u65bd\u5982\u4ee3\u4ea4\u7535\u8d39\u7b49\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u53ea\u6015\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u8fc7\u53bb\u597d\u51e0\u5e74\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e\u5168\u6c11\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u8dc3\u8dc3\u6b32\u5347\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u751a\u4e48\u5269\u4f59\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6216\u4ea7\u80fd\uff0c\u600e\u4e48\u80fd\u8bf4\u88ab\u653f\u5e9c\u62d6\u540e\u817f\u5462\uff01\u96be\u9053\u4efb\u5148\u751f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u653f\u5e9c\u8be5\u5728\u5168\u6c11\u5c31\u4e1a\u4e0b\u7ee7\u7eed\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u4ee4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc7\u70ed\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u4ee4\u7269\u4ef7\u98de\u5347\uff1f<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u82b1\u5149\u50a8\u5907\u96be\u634d\u536b\u8054\u6c47<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u518d\u4ece\u5b8f\u89c2\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u662f\u4e2a\u5f00\u653e\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4ee5\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6548\u679c\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5927\u641e\u57fa\u5efa\uff0c\u5f53\u4e2d\u4e0d\u5c11\u65b0\u589e\u5f00\u652f\u90fd\u6d41\u5165\u8d22\u56e2\u3001\u5927\u4f01\u4e1a\u624b\u4e2d\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u6d41\u5411\u4e00\u822c\u5e02\u6c11\u7684\u76f8\u5f53\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u53c8\u6216\u53ea\u6709\u5c11\u6570\u6d41\u8fdb\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5982\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u8bf4\u662f\u8017\u529b\u5927\u800c\u6536\u6548\u5c0f\uff0c\u672a\u5fc5\u5212\u7b97\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u7279\u533a\u653f\u5e9c\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u300c\u9006\u5468\u671f\u300d\uff08<\/span>counter cycle<\/span>\uff09\u7684\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u5373\u5f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5012\u9000\u65f6\u653f\u5e9c\u5f00\u652f\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u4f1a\u968f\u4e4b\u6536\u7f29\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88c1\u5458\u51cf\u85aa\uff0c\u53d8\u76f8\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u4e9b\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u4e00\u70b9\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5927\u6982\u5df2\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6700\u5927\u7684\u52a9\u529b\u3002\u4efb\u5148\u751f\u603b\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7279\u533a\u653f\u5e9c\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ee4\u9999\u6e2f\u50cf\u5185\u5730\u90a3\u6837<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u957f<\/span>6<\/span>\u81f3<\/span>7%<\/span>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u6700\u4ee4\u4eba\u8d39\u89e3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4efb\u5148\u751f\u638c\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u8d1f\u8d23\u634d\u536b\u8054\u7cfb\u6c47\u7387\uff0c\u81ea\u8be5\u660e\u767d\u8d22\u653f\u50a8\u5907\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u4fdd\u536b\u8054\u6c47\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5f39\u836f\u3002<\/span>1998<\/span>\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u5165\u5e02\u6253\u5927\u9cc4\u4e3a\u65f6\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4e24\u661f\u671f\uff0c\u52a8\u7528\u7684\u5f39\u836f\u5c31\u9ad8\u8fbe\u4e00\u5343\u4e8c\u767e\u591a\u4ebf\u5143\uff0c\u8981\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1<\/span>LTCM<\/span>\u4e0d\u7206\u7172\uff0c\u53c8\u6216\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6ca1\u51fa\u73b0\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4ee4\u5927\u9cc4\u8d44\u91d1\u94fe\u65ad\u88c2\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u653b\u9632\u6218\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6253\u5f97\u66f4\u4e45\uff0c\u5230\u65f6\u52a8\u7528\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u4fbf\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u8fbe\u4e09\u5343\u4ebf\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u538b\u529b\u5de8\u5927\u3002\u66fe\u4fca\u534e\u5148\u751f\u7d2f\u79ef\u4e5d\u5343\u591a\u4ebf\u50a8\u5907\u6b63\u597d\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u634d\u536b\u8054\u6c47\u7684\u5f39\u836f\uff0c\u5f3a\u5316\u5916\u754c\u5bf9\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u4ee4\u5927\u9cc4\u4eec\u4e0d\u6562\u518d\u60f3\u72d9\u51fb\u6e2f\u5143\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u662f\u5728\u5f3a\u5316\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u53ca\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u4efb\u5148\u751f\u5374\u53cd\u800c\u628a\u66fe\u5148\u751f\u8bf4\u6210\u5b88\u8d22\u5974\u3002\u96be\u9053\u8be5\u5927\u589e\u5f00\u652f\u82b1\u5149\u50a8\u5907\u624d\u7b97\u662f\u8fdb\u53d6\u53ca\u5408\u65f6\u5b9c\uff1f\u5230\u65f6\u518d\u6709\u5927\u9cc4\u72d9\u51fb\u6e2f\u5143\u62ff\u751a\u4e48\u6765\u8fce\u654c\u5462\uff1f<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

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