{"id":76535,"date":"2017-09-03T10:49:00","date_gmt":"2017-09-03T10:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=76535 "},"modified":"2017-09-03T10:49:00","modified_gmt":"2017-09-03T10:49:00","slug":"76535-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=76535","title":{"rendered":"\u5ddd\u666e\u8c34\u8d23\u671d\u9c9c\u6838\u8bd5\u79f0\u5176\u5df2\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u5927\u5a01\u80c1"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><\/div><p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u671d\u9c9c\u79f0&#8220;\u6210\u529f&#8221;\u8fdb\u884c\u6c22\u5f39\u8bd5\u7206<\/span><\/p><div>&nbsp;<\/div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/mzzg.org\/UploadCenter\/ArticlePics\/2017\/35\/201793DAEC146A-B6CB-49FF-AE1A-ED5596B34785_cx0_cy5_cw0_w1023_r1_s.jpg\" alt=\"201793DAEC146A-B6CB-49FF-AE1A-ED5596B34785_cx0_cy5_cw0_w1023_r1_s.jpg (600&#215;337)\" \/><br \/><div>&nbsp;<\/div>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u534e\u76db\u987f<\/span> <span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">&#8212;<\/span> <span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u671d\u9c9c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u671d\u9c9c\u6210\u529f\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u53ef\u642d\u8f7d\u5230\u6d32\u9645\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39\u4e0a\u7684\u6c22\u5f39\u8bd5\u9a8c\u3002\u671d\u9c9c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u5728\u5ba3\u5e03\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d88\u606f\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4fa6\u6d4b\u5230\u653e\u5c04\u6027\u7269\u8d28\u8fdb\u5165\u5927\u6c14\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u636e\u97e9\u56fd\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u591a\u4f4d\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u662f\u5728\u5e73\u58e4\u65f6\u95f4\u661f\u671f\u5929\u6b63\u5348\u65f6\u5206\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u65e5\u672c\u5916\u76f8\u6cb3\u91ce\u592a\u90ce\u5728\u4e1c\u4eac\u5bf9\u8bb0\u8005\u8bf4\uff1a&#8220;\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u671d\u9c9c\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u3002&#8221;<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5730\u9707\u4e13\u5bb6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u671d\u9c9c\u7684<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">6.3<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u7ea7\u5730\u9707\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5730\u8868\uff0c\u4f4d\u4e8e\u671d\u9c9c\u4e30\u6eaa\u91cc\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u573a\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u671d\u9c9c\u6b64\u6b21\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7684\u5f53\u91cf\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u6c22\u5f39\u7ea7\uff0c\u5728<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">100<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u5343\u5428\u81f3<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">1<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u767e\u4e07\u5428\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u9707\u52a8\u540e<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">5<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u5206\u949f\uff0c\u5730\u9707\u4e13\u5bb6\u53c8\u4fa6\u6d4b\u5230\u4e00\u6b21<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">5<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u7ea7\u9707\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6838\u88c5\u7f6e\u6240\u5728\u7684\u5751\u9053\u53d1\u751f\u584c\u9677\u6240\u81f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u8a79\u59c6\u65af&#183;\u9a6c\u4e01\u4e0d\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">(James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies)<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u4e1c\u4e9a\u9879\u76ee\u4e3b\u4efb\u6770\u5f17\u91cc&#183;\u8def\u6613\u65af<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">(Jeffrey Lewis)<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u671d\u9c9c\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u638c\u63e1\u5168\u9762\u70ed\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5e76\u4e0d\u611f\u5230\u5403\u60ca\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u4ed6\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\u8868\u793a\uff0c&#8220;\u6211\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bf4\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u3002\u671d\u9c9c\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002&#8221;<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u8def\u6613\u65af\u8bf4\uff1a&#8220;\u6240\u6709\u8fdb\u884c\u8fc7\u4e94\u6b21\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u5230\u7b2c\u4e94\u6b21\u8bd5\u9a8c\u65f6\u90fd\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5373\u5c06\u638c\u63e1\u70ed\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002&#8221;<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u5728\u671d\u9c9c\u88ab\u76d1\u6d4b\u5230\u8fdb\u884c\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u5c0f\u65f6\u524d\uff0c\u5e73\u58e4\u5ba3\u5e03\u5df2\u5f00\u53d1\u51fa\u53ef\u88c5\u8f7d\u5230\u5176\u65b0\u578b\u6d32\u9645\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39\u4e0a\u7684\u6c22\u5f39\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u671d\u4e2d\u793e\u8bf4\uff0c\u671d\u9c9c\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u5728\u89c6\u5bdf\u671d\u9c9c\u6838\u6b66\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">(Nuclear Weapons Institute)<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u89c1\u5230\u4e86\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u8fd9\u6b3e\u6c22\u5f39\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u516c\u5e03\u89c6\u5bdf\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u671d\u4e2d\u793e\u7528\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u7684\u8bdd\u5c06\u8fd9\u6b3e\u6c22\u5f39\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a&#8220;\u5177\u6709\u8d85\u5f3a\u7206\u70b8\u5a01\u529b\u7684\u70ed\u6838\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u6280\u672f\u5236\u9020\u3002&#8221;\u4ed6\u8fd8\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6c22\u5f39\u7684\u6240\u6709\u96f6\u90e8\u4ef6\u90fd\u662f&#8220;<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">100%<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u671d\u9c9c\u56fd\u4ea7\u3002&#8221;<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u62a5\u9053\u8fd8\u914d\u6709\u4e00\u5f20\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u8eab\u7740\u6df1\u8272\u5236\u670d\uff0c\u7ad9\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u82b1\u751f\u5f62\u72b6\u7684\u91d1\u5c5e\u7269\u4f53\u524d\u7684\u7167\u7247\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u671d\u9c9c\u8fc7\u53bb\u8fdb\u884c\u8fc7\u4e94\u6b21\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u662f\u5728<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">2006<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u5e74<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">10<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u6708<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">9<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u65e5<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u6b21\u662f<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">2016<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u5e74<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">9<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u6708<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">9<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u65e5<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u58f0\u660e\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5ddd\u666e\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u9996\u76f8\u5b89\u500d\u664b\u4e09\u661f\u671f\u516d\u901a\u4e86\u7535\u8bdd\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e24\u56fd\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u5f7c\u6b64\u52a0\u5f3a\u5408\u4f5c\u4ee5\u53ca\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e0e\u9762\u4e34\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e25\u5cfb\u6838\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u97e9\u56fd\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u5b89\u500d\u664b\u4e09\u5bf9\u8bb0\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u548c\u5ddd\u666e\u90fd\u540c\u610f\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u52a0\u5927\u5bf9\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u97e9\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5e9c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u97e9\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u661f\u671f\u4e94\u5c31\u671d\u9c9c\u95ee\u9898\u901a\u4e86\u7535\u8bdd\uff0c\u91cd\u7533\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u5b9e\u65bd\u6700\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5236\u88c1\u548c\u65bd\u52a0\u538b\u529b\u4f7f\u5e73\u58e4\u56de\u5230\u8c08\u5224\u684c\u524d\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u5728\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u5f02\u5e38\u5730\u8d28\u6d3b\u52a8\u88ab\u76d1\u6d4b\u5230\u540e\uff0c\u97e9\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u6587\u5728\u5bc5\u7acb\u5373\u53ec\u96c6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u53ec\u5f00\u4f1a\u8bae\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u671d\u9c9c\u8fdb\u884c\u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\u6838\u8bd5<\/span> <span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u65e5\u4e2d\u97e9\u53cd\u5e94\u5f3a\u70c8<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u671d\u9c9c\u661f\u671f\u5929\u65e5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u3002\u671d\u9c9c\u5b98\u65b9\u5a92\u4f53\u79f0\uff0c\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u4e0b\u4ee4\u8bd5\u9a8c\u53ef\u642d\u8f7d\u4e8e\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39\u4e4b\u4e0a\u7684\u6c22\u5f39\u5934\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14&#8220;\u5706\u6ee1\u6210\u529f&#8221;\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u671d\u9c9c\u9996\u5e2d\u5973\u4e3b\u64ad\u674e\u6625\u59ec\u5728\u671d\u9c9c\u4e2d\u592e\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u6177\u6168\u6fc0\u6602\u5730\u5ba3\u5e03\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\u53d6\u5f97&#8220;\u5b8c\u7f8e\u6210\u529f&#8221;\uff0c\u79f0\u8bd5\u7206&#8220;\u5a01\u529b\u7a7a\u524d\u5f3a\u5927\u7684&#8221;\u3002\u674e\u6625\u59ec\u8fd8\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5317\u97e9\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u8981\u6c42\u5728\u661f\u671f\u5929\u4e2d\u5348\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u624b\u8c15\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u65e5\u672c\u9996\u76f8\u5b89\u500d\u664b\u4e09\u661f\u671f\u5929\u79f0\uff0c\u671d\u9c9c\u6b64\u4e3e&#8220;\u7edd\u5bf9\u65e0\u6cd5\u63a5\u53d7&#8221;\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u671d\u9c9c\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u6784\u6210\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u3001\u66f4\u7d27\u6025\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u5b89\u500d\u5728\u671d\u9c9c\u6838\u8bd5\u51e0\u4e2a\u5c0f\u65f6\u4e4b\u524d\u521a\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5ddd\u666e\u4e3e\u884c\u7535\u8bdd\u4f1a\u8c08\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u91cd\u7533\u5e94\u52a0\u5f3a\u5bf9\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u5236\u88c1\uff0c\u5e76\u5c31\u4e89\u53d6\u5728\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5b89\u7406\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u65b0\u7684\u5236\u88c1\u51b3\u8bae\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u65e5\u672c\u9632\u536b\u76f8\u5c0f\u91ce\u5bfa\u4e94\u5178\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u671d\u9c9c\u8fd9\u6b21\u6838\u7206\u70b8\u7684\u5a01\u529b\u7ea6\u4e3a<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">70<\/span><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; 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font-size: 12pt;\">&#8220;\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u544a\u8bc9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u9996\u5c14\u53d1\u73b0\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u7ee5\u9756\u8a00\u8bba\u4e0d\u4f1a\u594f\u6548\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ea\u61c2\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff01&#8221;<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u767d\u5bab\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5ddd\u666e\u661f\u671f\u5929\u53ec\u96c6\u4ed6\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u987e\u95ee\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u8ba8\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u671d\u9c9c\u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u671d\u9c9c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6838\u8bd5\u9a8c<\/span> <span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u3002<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; font-size: 12pt;\">\u661f\u671f\u65e5\u5ddd\u666e\u79bb\u5f00\u534e\u76db\u987f\u6559\u5802\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u95ee\u4ed6\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u6253\u51fb\u671d\u9c9c\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a&#8220;\u6211\u4eec\u62ed\u76ee\u4ee5\u5f85\u3002&#8221;<\/span><\/p>  <p>&nbsp;<\/p>  <p><span style=\"font-family: \u5b8b\u4f53; 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