{"id":78023,"date":"2017-10-26T17:07:00","date_gmt":"2017-10-26T17:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=78023 "},"modified":"2017-10-26T17:07:00","modified_gmt":"2017-10-26T17:07:00","slug":"78023-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=78023","title":{"rendered":"2018\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u671d\u9c9c"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e1c\u4eac<\/span> —<\/span> \u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8<\/span>–<\/span>\u6b27\u4e9a\u96c6\u56e2\uff08<\/span>Eurasia Group<\/span>\uff09<\/span>10<\/span>\u6708<\/span>26<\/span>\u65e5<\/span>\u661f\u671f\u56db\u5728\u4e1c\u4eac\u4e3e\u529e“\u653f\u6cbb\u5cf0\u4f1a<\/span>–<\/span>\u65e5\u672c<\/span>2017<\/span>”<\/span>\u3002\u4f1a\u8bae\u9884\u6d4b\u660e\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u5341\u5927\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5f15\u8d77\u65e5\u672c\u5173\u6ce8\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u6b27\u4e9a\u96c6\u56e2\u5468\u56db\u4e0b\u5348\u5728\u4e1c\u4eac\u5343\u4ee3\u7530\u533a\u5e1d\u56fd\u9152\u5e97\u4e3e\u529e\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86<\/span>2018<\/span>\u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4f9d\u6b21\u662f\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u671d\u9c9c\u3001\u5fb7\u56fd\u3001\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u610f\u5927\u5229\u3001\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u3001\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u3001\u571f\u8033\u5176\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4f1a\u8bae\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5927\u98ce\u9669\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002\u8be5\u5c55\u671b\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5ddd\u666e\u7684\u653f\u6743\u5728\u660e\u5e74<\/span>11<\/span>\u6708\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u5bf9\u6267\u653f\u5171\u548c\u515a\u8bae\u5e2d\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u4e3a\u6b64\u5ddd\u666e\u9700\u8981\u4f18\u5148\u63a8\u8fdb\u7a0e\u5236\u6539\u9769\u7b49\u4fdd\u5b88\u8bae\u6848\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u53d6\u60a6\u5171\u548c\u515a\u652f\u6301\u5c42\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u628a\u8109\u4e1c\u4e9a<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u5c55\u671b\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728\u5341\u4e5d\u5927\u540e\u5c06\u901a\u8fc7\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u653f\u7b56\u518d\u52a0\u5f3a\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u884c\u4f7f\u653f\u6cbb\u529b\u91cf\u8d44\u6e90\u6765\u5b9e\u65bd\u4eca\u5e74\u5b9a\u4e0b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65e5\u7a0b\u3002\u5c55\u671b\u79f0\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u6700\u5927\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u5b9e\u73b0\u5b89\u5b9a\uff0c\u5373\u51cf\u5c11\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u8d22\u653f\u98ce\u9669\uff1b\u5176\u6b21\u662f\u628a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5411\u521b\u65b0\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u65b9\u5411\u63a8\u79fb\u3002\u5c55\u671b\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4e3a\u6b64\u4f1a\u5728\u8ffd\u6c42\u52a0\u5feb\u5e02\u573a\u6539\u9769\u5e76\u5728\u76d1\u7763\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u7ed9\u4e88\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u5e9c\u66f4\u591a\u6743\u5229\uff0c\u4e3a\u6b64\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u6b27\u76df\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u7d27\u5f20\u5c06\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u660e\u5e74\u8d22\u653f\u7b49\u7279\u5b9a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6539\u9769\u4f1a\u6709\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u56fd\u4f01\u6539\u9769\u7b49\u5176\u5b83\u9886\u57df\u6539\u9769\u5c06\u5ef6\u8fdf\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u5bf9\u5317\u671d\u9c9c\uff0c\u6b27\u4e9a\u96c6\u56e2\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u8ffd\u6c42\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u4e0e\u5f00\u53d1\u5f39\u9053\u5bfc\u5f39\u7684\u671d\u9c9c\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u660e\u5e74\u4ee5\u53ca\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u5176\u884c\u52a8\u5c06\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e9a\u6d32\u4e43\u81f3\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5f62\u52bf\uff0c\u800c\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u5728\u963b\u6b62\u91d1\u6b63\u6069\u8fdb\u5316\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u56e0\u5982\u4f55\u9009\u62e9\u6700\u4f73\u624b\u6bb5\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0d\u548c\u8c10\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6781\u96be\u627e\u5230\u5e94\u5bf9\u671d\u9c9c\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u6709\u6548\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u5224\u65ad\u5931\u8bef\u548c\u65e0\u6cd5\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u4e8b\u6545\u5f15\u8d77\u5371\u673a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u5728\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b9e\u73b0\u5916\u4ea4\u89e3\u51b3\u671d\u9c9c\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5c40\u52bf\u4e0b\uff0c\u671d\u9c9c\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u6838\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

“<\/span>G<\/span>\u96f6”\u5230\u5934\uff1f<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u6b27\u4e9a\u96c6\u56e2\u8463\u4e8b\u957f\u4f0a\u6069·\u5e03\u96f7\u9ed8\uff08<\/span>Ian Bremmer<\/span>\uff09\u5468\u56db\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u5f53\u4f5c\u6a21\u8303\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u79f0\u8d5e\u65e5\u672c\u9996\u76f8\u5b89\u500d\u664b\u4e09\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a“\u5b89\u500d\u8d62\u5f97\u5927\u9009\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u662f\u597d\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u5b89\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u79fb\u6c11\u56f0\u6270\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4eba\u53e3\u51cf\u5c11\u662f\u4e2a\u9690\u60a3\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u672a\u6765\u5305\u62ec\u65e5\u672c\u5728\u5185\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u5730\u533a\u4f1a\u65e5\u8d8b\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9996\u5c4a\u653f\u6cbb\u5cf0\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u53ec\u5f00\u3002”<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

1998<\/span>\u5e74\u4f0a\u6069·\u5e03\u96f7\u9ed8\u521b\u7acb\u7684\u6b27\u4e9a\u96c6\u56e2\u56e0\u4e3a\u6bcf\u5e74\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u5206\u6790\u5168\u7403\u5341\u5927\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u5b89\u5168\u7b49\u98ce\u9669\u88ab\u591a\u6b21\u8bc1\u5b9e\u5353\u8d8a\uff0c\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6ce8\u76ee\u3002\u4f0a\u6069·\u5e03\u96f7\u9ed8\u672c\u4eba\u56e0\u63d0\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d1b\u8d77\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u8870\u5f31\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e16\u754c\u6b20\u7f3a\u9886\u5934\u7684“<\/span>G<\/span>\u96f6”\u7406\u8bba\u4e5f\u4ee4\u4ed6\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7406\u8bba\u626c\u540d\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4f0a\u6069·\u5e03\u96f7\u9ed8\u5468\u56db\u5728\u4e1c\u4eac\u6307\u51fa\uff1a“\u4e16\u754c\u6b63\u8fce\u6765‘<\/span>G<\/span>\u96f6’\u5206\u6b67\u70b9\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u897f\u65b9\u5404\u56fd\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e16\u754c\u9884\u8ba1\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u66f4\u5feb\u6210\u4e3a\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4e16\u754c\u3002”\u4ed6\u8fd8\u5efa\u8bae\u65e5\u672c\u5728\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6ce8\u610f\u5e73\u8861\u5730\u6784\u7b51\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u7b26\u5408\u65e5\u672c\u5229\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u9884\u8a00\u98ce\u9669<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u6b27\u4e9a\u96c6\u56e2\u4eca\u5e74<\/span>1<\/span>\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u7684<\/span>2017<\/span>\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u5341\u5927\u98ce\u9669\u662f\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d70\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9053\uff08\u5ddd\u666e\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e3b\u4e49\uff09\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fc7\u5ea6\u53cd\u5e94\uff08\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u5171\u9ad8\u5c42\u6743\u6597\u5c06\u662f\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u4eba\u4e8b\u53d8\u52a8\uff09\u3001\u8870\u5f31\u7684\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\uff08\u5fb7\u56fd\uff09\u3001\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6539\u9769\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

2010<\/span>\u5e74\u6b27\u4e9a\u96c6\u56e2\u9884\u6d4b\u65e5\u672c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u7684\u65f6\u4efb\u9996\u76f8\u9e20\u5c71\u7531\u7eaa\u592b\u653f\u6743\u98ce\u9669\u88ab\u9a8c\u8bc1\u540e\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u5438\u5f15\u5bf9\u65e5\u8d8b\u590d\u6742\u3001\u591a\u53d8\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u6df1\u611f\u5f77\u5fa8\u7684\u65e5\u672c\u94f6\u884c\u3001\u8bc1\u5238\u516c\u53f8\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u7b49\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u673a\u6784\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7684\u987e\u5ba2\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u5341\u5206\u5173\u6ce8\u8fd9\u6b21\u4e1c\u4eac\u4e3e\u529e\u7684\u8fd9\u6b21\u5c55\u671b\u4f1a\u8bae\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u5185\u9601\u5b98\u623f\u957f\u5b98\u83c5\u4e49\u4f1f\u8fc7\u95ee\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7701\u653f\u52a1\u5b98\u5e73\u6728\u5927\u4f5c\u5468\u56db\u5230\u573a\u81f4\u8f9e\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u51fa\u5e2d\u8fd9\u6b21\u5cf0\u4f1a\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u9664\u4e86\u6b27\u4e9a\u96c6\u56e2\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3001\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7b49\u56fd\u5b98\u5458\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3001\u5b66\u8005\u7b49\u3002\u51e0\u5341\u5bb6\u65e5\u4f01\u987e\u5ba2\u8fd1\u767e\u4eba\u51fa\u5e2d\u65c1\u542c“\u4e2d\u56fd\u80fd\u5426\u6210\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u5316\u9886\u8896”\u3001“\u79d1\u6280\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u78b0\u649e\u65f6”\u3001“\u56fd\u9645\u80fd\u6e90\u91cc\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u65e5\u672c\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u672a\u6765”\u3001“\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u65b0\u5e38\u6001\u80fd\u5426\u6301\u7eed”\u3001“\u7eb7\u4e89\u4e0e\u91ce\u5fc3\uff1a\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u672a\u6765”\u3001“\u6253\u8f6c\u4e8e\u89d2\u843d\u7684\u6b27\u6d32”\u7684\u5206\u7ec4\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u805a\u7126\u4e2d\u56fd<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5728\u5206\u7ec4\u8ba8\u8bba\u524d\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u5927\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u521a\u5b8c\u6210\u4eae\u76f8\u7684\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u65b0\u653f\u6743\u5df2\u7ecf\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e2d\u56fd\u6210\u4e3a\u70ed\u95e8\u8bdd\u9898\u3002\u4f0a\u6069·\u5e03\u96f7\u9ed8\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u5e94\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8870\u5f31\u5e76\u8fc5\u901f\u58ee\u5927\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u672a\u6765<\/span>20<\/span>\u5e74\u5c06\u66f4\u5f3a\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

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 <\/p>

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