{"id":79037,"date":"2017-12-10T04:34:00","date_gmt":"2017-12-10T04:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=79037 "},"modified":"2017-12-10T04:34:00","modified_gmt":"2017-12-10T04:34:00","slug":"79037-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=79037","title":{"rendered":"\u9ece\u5b89\u53cb\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7f16\u8005\u6309<\/strong>\uff1a\u8fd9\u662f\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u6559\u6388<\/em>\u9ece\u5b89\u53cb\uff08<\/em>Andrew J. Nathan<\/em>\uff09<\/em>2017<\/em>\u5e74<\/em>10<\/em>\u6708<\/em>12<\/em>\u65e5\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u4e66\u8bc4\u300b\u4e0a\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u8bc4\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e09\u672c\u6700\u8fd1\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u3001\u6d89\u53ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d1b\u8d77\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5206\u522b\u662f<\/em>\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14·<\/em>R<\/em>·\u5965\u65af\u6797\u7684\u300a\u4e9a\u6d32\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1a\u4e16\u754c\u6700\u52a8\u8361\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u505c\u6ede\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u300b\uff08<\/em>The End of the Asian Century: War, Stagnation, and the Risks to the World<\/em>’<\/em>s Most Dynamic Region<\/em> by Michael R. Auslin\uff09\u3001\u5965\u5229\u5f17·\u65af\u56fe\u6069\u514b\u5c14\u7684\u300a\u540e\u897f\u65b9\u4e16\u754c\uff1a\u65b0\u5174\u56fd\u5bb6\u5982\u4f55\u91cd\u5851\u5168\u7403\u79e9\u5e8f\u300b<\/em>\uff08Post- Western World: How Emerging Powers Are Remaking Global Order<\/em> by Oliver Stuenkel\uff09\u3001\u683c\u96f7\u5384\u59c6·\u57c3\u91cc\u68ee\u7684\u300a\u6ce8\u5b9a\u4e00\u6218\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u80fd\u9003\u907f\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u9677\u9631\u5417\uff1f\u300b\uff08Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides<\/em>’<\/em>s Trap? <\/em>by Graham Allison\uff09\u3002\u611f\u8c22\u9ece\u5b89\u53cb\u6559\u6388\u548c\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u4e66\u8bc4\u300b\u540c\u610f\u672c\u520a\u53d1\u8868\u4e2d\u6587\u7248\u3002\u539f\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttp<\/span>:\/\/<\/span>www<\/span>.<\/span>nybooks<\/span>.<\/span>com<\/span>\/<\/span>articles<\/span>\/<\/span>2017<\/span>\/<\/span>10<\/span>\/<\/span>12<\/span>\/<\/span>chinese<\/span>–<\/span>world<\/span>–<\/span>order<\/span>\/<\/span>.<\/font><\/span><\/p>

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10\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u8bb0\u8005\u5b5f\u6377\u6155\uff08James Mann\uff09\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e7b\u60f3\u300b\uff08The Chinese Fantasy\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\uff0c\u6279\u8bc4\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u4eec\u7528\u67d0\u79cd\u4ed6\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a“\u6170\u7c4d\u6027\u60c5\u666f”\uff08the Soothing Scenario\uff09\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u6765\u8bc1\u660e\u5176\u5bf9\u534e\u5916\u4ea4\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5408\u4f5c\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u3002\u6309\u7167\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60c5\u666f\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f97\u5230\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u597d\u5904\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5176\u63a5\u53d7\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u652f\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002\u4f46\u4e0e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c2\u70b9\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b5f\u6377\u6155\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e13\u5236\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u6210\u529f\u53ea\u4f1a\u9f13\u52b1\u5176\u4ed6\u72ec\u88c1\u653f\u6743\u62b5\u5236\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002[1]<\/span><\/font><\/span><\/p>

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 <\/p>

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 <\/p>

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“[\u5b83\u4eec]\u5c06\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u5e73\u53f0\uff08\u5728\u975e\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u4ee5\u53ca\u975e\u897f\u65b9\u4e0e\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u66f4\u5e73\u5747\u5730\u5206\u6563\u8d1f\u62c5\u5168\u7403\u516c\u5171\u4ea7\u54c1 [\u4f8b\u5982\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u7ef4\u548c\u884c\u52a8\u3001\u53cd\u6d77\u76d7\u5de1\u903b\u4ee5\u53ca\u63a7\u5236\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316]……\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u4f4e\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5e26\u6765\u666e\u904d\u7684\u798f\u7949\uff08lifting all boats\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f1a\u52a0\u6df1\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u878d\u5408\u3002“<\/span><\/p>

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 <\/p>

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\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u53cc\u65b9\u6709\u5171\u540c\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u9886\u57df\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u884c\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u5982\u9632\u6b62\u6838\u6269\u6563\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u4e0e\u6b64\u4e0d\u540c\uff09\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u4e92\u60e0\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u7a33\u6b65\u63a8\u52a8\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f00\u653e——\u800c\u7559\u5728TPP\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u6b64\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u6210\u529f\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u6218\u7565\u5229\u76ca\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u575a\u5b9a\u4e0d\u79fb\u5730\u575a\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u53f0\u6e7e\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u5728\u5357\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5fc5\u987b\u6bd4\u6b64\u524d\u66f4\u575a\u5b9a\u5730\u7ef4\u62a4\u4eba\u6743\u548c\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u6807\u51c6\uff1b \u5f53\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u7ecf\u5e38\u5730\u5e72\u6d89\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u65f6\uff0c\u5374\u8981\u6211\u4eec\u5c0a\u91cd\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u6743\u5bf9\u654f\u611f\u6027\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u8fd9\u6beb\u65e0\u9053\u7406\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u3001\u6469\u64e6\u548c\u8bd5\u63a2\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5ef6\u7eed\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u3002\u800c\u8981\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u8fdb\u884c\u51c6\u786e\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u66f4\u9700\u8981\u660e\u767d\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u6240\u5728\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\uff08\u5f90\u4f1f\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u72ec\u7acb\u5b66\u4eba\uff09<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

[1]<\/span><\/font><\/span> \u5b5f\u6377\u6155\uff1a\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e7b\u60f3\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5982\u4f55\u6de1\u5316\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u9547\u538b\u300b\uff08James Mann, The China Fantasy: How Our Leaders Explain Away Chinese Repression\uff09\uff08Viking\uff0c2007\uff09<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

[2]<\/span><\/font><\/span>  John Ruwitch\uff0c“\u4e2d\u56fd\u902e\u6355\u8c03\u67e5\u4f0a\u4e07\u5361·\u7279\u6717\u666e\u54c1\u724c\u978b\u5236\u9020\u5de5\u5382\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u8005”\uff0c\u8def\u900f\u793e\uff0c2017\u5e745\u670831\u65e5\u3002\uff08John Ruwitch, “Activist Probing Factories Making Ivanka Trump Shoes in China Arrested: Group,” Reuters, May 31, 2017.\uff09<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

[3]<\/span><\/font><\/span>  \u6c88\u5927\u4f1f\uff1a\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u300b\uff08David Shambaugh, China’s Future \uff09\uff08Polity, 2016\uff09<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

[4]<\/span><\/font><\/span> \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8a79\u59c6\u65af·\u65af\u5766\u4f2f\u683c\uff08James Steinberg\uff09\u548c\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14·E·\u5965\u6c49\u9686\uff08Michael E. O’Hanlon\uff09\uff1a\u300a\u6218\u7565\u518d\u4fdd\u8bc1\u548c\u51b3\u5fc3\uff1a\u4e8c\u5341\u4e00\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u7f8e\u4e2d\u5173\u7cfb\u300b\uff08Strategic Reassurance and Resolve: US–China Relations in the Twenty- First Century\uff09\uff08Princeton University Press, 2014\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u83b1\u5c14·J·\u6208\u5fb7\u65af\u5766\uff08Lyle J.Goldstein\uff09\uff1a\u300a\u5728\u4e2d\u9014\u9047\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u5316\u89e3\u65b0\u5174\u7684\u7f8e\u4e2d\u7ade\u4e89\u300b\uff08Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US–China Rivalry\uff09\uff08Georgetown University Press, 2015\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u7f16\u8005\u6309\uff1a\u8fd9\u662f\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u9ece\u5b89\u53cb\uff08Andrew J. Nathan\uff092017\u5e7410\u670812\u65e5\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-thought","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=79037"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79037\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=79037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=79037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=79037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}