{"id":81399,"date":"2018-03-03T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2018-03-03T12:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=81399 "},"modified":"2018-03-03T12:30:00","modified_gmt":"2018-03-03T12:30:00","slug":"81399-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=81399","title":{"rendered":"\u5e03\u9c81\u91d1\u65af\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff1a\u5e9f\u9664\u4efb\u671f\u4e2d\u5171\u63a5\u73ed\u6216\u89e6\u53d1\u5168\u9762\u6218\u4e89"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"media\"\u56fe\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5317\u4eac\u5929\u5b89\u95e8\u5e7f\u573a\u7eaa\u5ff5\u54c1\u552e\u644a\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u7eaa\u5ff5\u7ae0<\/small>\u56fe\u7247\uff1a\u8def\u900f\u793e\/REUTERS<\/small><\/div>\u4e2d\u5171\u5efa<\/strong>\u8bae<\/strong>\u4fee<\/strong>\u5baa<\/strong>\u64a4<\/strong>\u9500<\/strong>\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4efb\u671f\uff0c\u6d77\u5916<\/strong>\u4f20<\/strong>\u5a92\u8fd1\u65e5\u6765\u6709\u5927\u7bc7\u5e45\u7684<\/strong>\u62a5<\/strong>\u9053\u548c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u591a\u90fd\u662f<\/strong>\u8d1f<\/strong>\u9762\u7684<\/strong>\u8bc4\u8bba<\/strong>\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4eab\u8a89\u76db\u540d\u7684\u5e03<\/strong>\u9c81<\/strong>\u91d1\u65af\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u5206\u6790<\/strong>\u8ba4\u4e3a<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171<\/strong>\u5e9f<\/strong>\u9664\u4e86<\/strong>\u9093<\/strong>\u5c0f\u5e73\u7684\u63a5\u73ed\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c“\u63a5\u73ed<\/strong>\u5bfc<\/strong>\u81f4\u5168\u9762<\/strong>\u6218<\/strong>\u4e89\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u5c06\u6210\u4e8b<\/strong>\u5b9e<\/strong>”\uff08The chances of leadership transitions descending into wars of all against all will be real.<\/strong>\uff09<\/strong>
 <\/div>

\u5e03\u9c81\u91d1\u65af\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u65d7\u4e0b\u7684\u7ea6\u7ff0·\u6851\u987f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08John L.Thornton China Center\uff09\u7684\u8d44\u6df1\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u8d1d\u8fbe\uff08Jeffrey A Bader\uff09\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u8def\u505a\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f1a\u7ed9\u4e88\u5176\u4ed6\u6709\u91ce\u5fc3\u7684\u672a\u6765\u63a5\u73ed\u4eba\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u4e4b\u524d\u6240\u6709\u4e00\u5207\u7684\u89c4\u77e9\u5e38\u6001\u548c\u96c6\u4f53\u9886\u5bfc\u90fd\u4e0d\u7ba1\u7528\u4e86\u3002\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u63a5\u73ed\u89e6\u53d1\u7684\u5168\u9762\u6218\u4e89\u6050\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c1989\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u52a8\u8361\u4ee5\u53ca\u540e\u6765\u7684\u9547\u538b\uff0c\u90fd\u56e0\u4e3a\u515a\u5185\u5bf9\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u63a5\u73ed\u4eba\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u89c1\u89e6\u53d1\u800c\u6210\u3002<\/p>

\u6839\u636e\u8d1d\u8fbe\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5b98\u573a\u5c06\u5145\u65a5\u4e00\u7247\u62cd\u9a6c\u5c41\u6b4c\u529f\u9882\u5fb7\u4e4b\u58f0\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u613f\u610f\u63d0\u51fa\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u6743\u529b\u90fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u6700\u9ad8\u4e00\u5c42\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ea\u4f1a\u542c\u4ece\u547d\u4ee4\u548c\u6307\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8d8b\u4e8e\u5197\u957f\u3002<\/p>

\u4ed6\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6307\u51fa\uff1a“\u51b3\u7b56\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u4e2d\u592e\u96c6\u6743\uff0c\u5bf9\u89e3\u51b3\u91cd\u8981\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5c06\u66f4\u5197\u957f\u3002\u4e00\u5411\u662f\u6218\u6218\u5162\u5162\u7684\u4f4e\u5c42\u5e72\u90e8\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u5bf9\u8fdb\u8a00\u66f4\u52a0\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u5bf9\u91cd\u8981\u6216\u7410\u788e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u8fdf\u7591\u4e0d\u51b3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u6700\u4e0a\u5c42\u7684\u6743\u529b\u6bd4\u8d77\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u5019\u90fd\u66f4\u96c6\u4e2d\u3002\u5b98\u5458\u4eec\u53ea\u4f1a\u7b49\u5019\u547d\u4ee4\u548c\u6307\u793a\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u63d0\u51fa\u4efb\u4f55\u5efa\u8bae\u3002\u515a\u5185\u7684\u7ea0\u7eb7\u5c06\u56e0\u6b64\u800c\u6d88\u58f0\uff0c\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u7247\u7684\u963f\u8c00\u8c04\u5a9a\u548c\u8868\u5fe0\u3002”<\/p>

\u8d1d\u8fbe\u5e76\u4e14\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5171\u4fee\u5baa\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u7684\u6743\u529b\u6216\u58f0\u671b\u5df2\u662f\u5982\u65e5\u4e2d\u5929\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a“\u51b3\u5b9a\u5bb9\u8bb8\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u6c38\u8fdc\u638c\u6743\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u6b63\u597d\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4e0d\u7a33\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e732012\u5e74\u53d6\u5f97\u4e2d\u5171\u9886\u5bfc\u6743\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4ee4\u4eba\u975e\u5e38\u5931\u671b\u3002\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u94f6\u884c\u503a\u53f0\u9ad8\u7b51\uff0c\u79c1\u4eba\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u56fd\u4f01\u4e5f\u4e00\u6837\u62db\u81f4\u56fd\u9645\u8bc4\u7ea7\u673a\u6784\u4eae\u8d77\u9ec4\u724c\u3002”<\/p>

<\/div>
<\/div>

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\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u7ee7\u7eed\u638c\u6743\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u53d6\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u8d1d\u8fbe\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b2\u52a8\u5934\u8111\u53d1\u70ed\u6216\u975e\u7406\u667a\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u3002\u628a\u4ed6\u8ddf\u6bdb\u6cfd\u4e1c\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u7684\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u5927\u8dc3\u8fdb\u548c\u6587\u5316\u5927\u9769\u547d\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u5916\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u503e\u5411\u4e0e\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u7406\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u6d4b\u6027\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u8896\u6253\u4ea4\u9053\uff0c\u800c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u51fa\u4fdd\u8bc1\u3002<\/span> <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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