{"id":82252,"date":"2018-04-05T14:12:00","date_gmt":"2018-04-05T14:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=82252 "},"modified":"2018-04-05T14:12:00","modified_gmt":"2018-04-05T14:12:00","slug":"82252-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=82252","title":{"rendered":"\u6c11\u8c03\u6307\u53f0\u6e7e\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u8981\u73b0\u72b6\u800c\u975e\u7edf\u4e00\u6216\u72ec\u7acb"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"2018451D12EBBB-DB44-4675-822C-28DD068FFFDC_cx0_cy8_cw0_w1023_r1_s.jpg<\/p>

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\u534e\u76db\u987f<\/span> —<\/span> \u4e00\u4e2a\u9488\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u653f\u6cbb\u6001\u5ea6\u6240\u505a\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u53f0\u6e7e\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5e76\u4e0d\u5982\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u9ad8\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u8fd8\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u53f0\u6d77\u4e24\u5cb8\u7ef4\u6301\u73b0\u72b6\uff0c\u800c\u5373\u4fbf\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u6709<\/span>7<\/span>\u6210\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u613f\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7edf\u4e00\u3002\u5b66\u8005\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u793a\u666e\u904d\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f“\u5929\u7136\u72ec”\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u5e74\u8f7b\u4e16\u4ee3\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5bf9\u4e24\u5cb8\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u662f“\u53cd\u7edf\u4e00”\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u53f0\u6e7e\u6c11\u4e3b\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u6267\u884c\u957f\u5f90\u65af\u4fed\u661f\u671f\u4e8c\u5728\u534e\u76db\u987f\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53f0\u6e7e\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/span>(GTI)<\/span>\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7531\u8be5\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u59d4\u6258\u56fd\u7acb\u653f\u6cbb\u5927\u5b66\u9009\u4e3e\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u5f90\u65af\u4fed\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u6c11\u8c03\u5e0c\u671b\u4e86\u89e3\u8fd1\u6765\u53f0\u6e7e\u6c11\u4e3b\u53d1\u5c55\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u5bf9\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u8bae\u9898\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u3001\u5bf9\u53f0\u6d77\u4e24\u5cb8\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u5b89\u5168\u9632\u536b\u7684\u51b3\u5fc3\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u5728\u5173\u4e8e\u4e24\u5cb8\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u6c11\u8c03\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728<\/span>39<\/span>\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u5e74\u9f84\u5c42\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709<\/span>23.5%<\/span>\u652f\u6301\u53f0\u6e7e\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c<\/span>10.4%<\/span>\u652f\u6301\u4e24\u5cb8\u7edf\u4e00\uff0c<\/span>65.5%<\/span>\u7684\u4eba\u8fd8\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u4e24\u5cb8\u5173\u7cfb\u7ef4\u6301\u73b0\u72b6\uff1b\u5728<\/span>40<\/span>\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5e74\u9f84\u5c42\u4e2d\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u72ec\u7acb\u3001\u7edf\u4e00\u53ca\u73b0\u72b6\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4f9d\u5e8f\u662f<\/span>14.7%<\/span>\uff0c<\/span>20.1%<\/span>\u53ca<\/span>59.3%<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u5f90\u65af\u4fed\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e3a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e86\u89e3\u6240\u8c13\u7684“\u5929\u7136\u72ec”\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c11\u8c03\u518d\u5c06<\/span>39<\/span>\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5e74\u9f84\u5c42\u7ec6\u5206\u4e3a<\/span>20<\/span>\u5230<\/span>29<\/span>\u5c81\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca<\/span>30<\/span>\u5230<\/span>39<\/span>\u5c81\u4e24\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u5e74\u8f7b\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u6709<\/span>26.1%<\/span>\uff0c\u53ea\u6bd4<\/span>30<\/span>\u5230<\/span>39<\/span>\u5c81\u7684<\/span>21.7%<\/span>\u7a0d\u9ad8\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u6709<\/span>7.5%<\/span>\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ea\u6bd4<\/span>30<\/span>\u5230<\/span>39<\/span>\u5c81\u7684<\/span>12.5%<\/span>\u7a0d\u4f4e\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u800c\u652f\u6301\u7ef4\u6301\u73b0\u72b6\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u5e74\u9f84\u5c42\u90fd\u5360\u6700\u591a\u6570\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f<\/span>64.9%<\/span>\u53ca<\/span>65.8%<\/span>\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u5206\u522b\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\u662f\u5426\u8d5e\u540c\u4e24\u5cb8\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5728<\/span>39<\/span>\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u5e74\u9f84\u5c42\u4e2d\u6709<\/span>73.3%<\/span>\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u8d5e\u540c\uff0c\u53ea\u6709<\/span>24.4%<\/span>\u7684\u4eba\u8d5e\u540c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u4e0e<\/span>40<\/span>\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5e74\u9f84\u5c42\u6709\u6781\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5728\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u5e74\u9f84\u5c42\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d5e\u540c<\/span>(43.9%)<\/span>\u4e0e\u4e0d\u8d5e\u540c<\/span>(43.8%)<\/span>\u4e24\u5cb8\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4e4b\u540e\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u5173\u4e8e\u5bf9\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u6c11\u8c03\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u5e74\u9f84\u5c42\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u652f\u6301\u5ea6\u90fd\u8d85\u8fc7<\/span>6<\/span>\u6210\uff0c\u4f46<\/span>39<\/span>\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5e74\u8f7b\u4e16\u4ee3\u7684\u652f\u6301\u5ea6\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c\u6709<\/span>86.2%<\/span>\u7684\u4eba\u540c\u610f\uff0c“\u5373\u4fbf\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6”\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u5728\u5173\u4e8e\u81ea\u6211\u9632\u536b\u51b3\u5fc3\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u6709\u8fd1<\/span>7<\/span>\u6210<\/span>(68%)<\/span>\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b66\u7edf\u80c1\u8feb\u4e0b\u4e3a\u53f0\u6e7e\u800c\u6218\uff0c\u4e0d\u56e0\u5e74\u9f84\u800c\u6709\u533a\u522b\uff0c\u800c\u6c11\u4e3b\u4ef7\u503c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\u5bf9\u6297\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f\u4e2d\u592e\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u653f\u6cbb\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u7684\u5f90\u65af\u4fed\u8bf4\uff0c\u7efc\u5408\u6240\u6709\u6570\u636e\u6240\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u5e74\u8f7b\u4e16\u4ee3\u5e76\u975e\u4e0d\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u6311\u8845\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u7ef4\u6301\u6c11\u4e3b\u4ef7\u503c\u53ca\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u9632\u536b\u90fd\u6709\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u51b3\u5fc3\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u505a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u5206\u6790\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5f90\u65af\u4fed\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u89e3\u8bfb\u662f\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u5e0c\u671b\u4e24\u5cb8\u7ef4\u6301\u73b0\u72b6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u5e0c\u671b\u53f0\u6e7e\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7edf\u4e00\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6240\u8c13\u7684“\u5929\u7136\u72ec”\u5176\u5b9e\u771f\u6b63\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u662f“\u53cd\u7edf\u4e00”\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u8fd1\u653f\u5e9c\u5ba3\u5e03<\/span>31<\/span>\u6761“\u60e0\u53f0”\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u88ab\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u7684\u7edf\u6218\u4e3e\u63aa\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u6b64\u800c\u63a8\u51fa\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\u907f\u514d\u4eba\u624d\u6d41\u5931\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5f90\u65af\u4fed\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c11\u8c03\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u5176\u5b9e\u975e\u5e38\u52a1\u5b9e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u4f1a\u653e\u5f03\u4e2d\u56fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0d\u81f3\u4e8e\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8ba4\u540c\u611f\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u5f90\u65af\u4fed\u8bf4\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e0d\u662f\u755c\u751f\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u53ea\u6709\u7269\u8d28\u9700\u6c42\uff0c“\u8fd8\u6709\u60c5\u7eea\u3001\u8ba4\u540c\u611f\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\uff0c\u800c\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684”\uff0c\u4ed6\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e2d\u56fd\u670b\u53cb\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u6c11\u4e3b\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7684\u8f7b\u89c6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u90a3\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7a0b\u5e8f\u800c\u5df2\uff0c\u4f46\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7a0b\u5e8f\uff0c“\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4ef7\u503c”\uff0c\u800c\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u975e\u5e38\u73cd\u89c6\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c11\u4e3b\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u5e0c\u671b\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u80fd\u8ba4\u771f\u770b\u5f85\u53f0\u6e7e\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u575a\u6301\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u5171\u548c\u5b66\u4f1a<\/span>(International Republican Institute)<\/span>\u4e3b\u5e2d\u7279\u6e29\u5b81<\/span>(Daniel Twining)<\/span>\u5728\u8bc4\u8bba\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c11\u8c03\u7ed3\u679c\u65f6\u8bf4\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u53f0\u6e7e\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u770b\u91cd\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u8bbf\u95ee\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u63a8\u52a8\u6c11\u4e3b\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u770b\u5230\u5168\u7403\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u90fd\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6e34\u671b\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u826f\u597d\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u8ffd\u6c42\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u60f3\u8981\u8f93\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e13\u5236\u4f53\u5236\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u4eba\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u98ce\u9669\u592a\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u53f0\u6e7e\u6c11\u4e3b\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u81ea<\/span>2011<\/span>\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u6bcf\u5e74\u8fdb\u884c\u4e24\u6b21\u6c11\u8c03\uff0c\u4e00\u6b21\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u6c11\u4f17\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u652f\u6301\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u6b21\u5219\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u6c11\u4f17\u5bf9\u53f0\u6e7e\u793e\u4f1a\u516c\u5e73\u6b63\u4e49\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5728\u4eca\u5e74<\/span>2<\/span>\u6708\u3001<\/span>3<\/span>\u6708\u505a\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u6c11\u8c03\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u52a0\u5165\u4e86<\/span>39<\/span>\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5e74\u9f84\u5c42\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4e0e<\/span>40<\/span>\u5c81\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5e74\u9f84\u5c42\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u7684\u6837\u672c\u6709<\/span>825<\/span>\u4eba\uff0c\u5360\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/span>38%<\/span>\uff1b\u540e\u8005\u6837\u672c\u4e3a<\/span>747<\/span>\u4eba\uff0c\u5360\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/span>62%<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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