{"id":84384,"date":"2018-07-01T15:25:00","date_gmt":"2018-07-01T15:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=84384 "},"modified":"2018-07-01T15:25:00","modified_gmt":"2018-07-01T15:25:00","slug":"84384-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=84384","title":{"rendered":"\u5362\u5cf0\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u53cc\u91cd\u9677\u9631"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u9634\u973e\u5bc6\u5e03\u540e\u574f\u6d88\u606f\u4e00\u6d6a\u63a5\u4e00\u6d6a\uff0c\u5148\u662f\u51fa\u5165\u53e3\u6570\u636e\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u5dee\u52b2\uff0c\u63a5\u7740\u662f\u5185\u5730\u80a1\u5e02\u5feb\u901f\u8f6c\u52bf\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4e0a\u8bc1\u6307\u6570\u4ece<\/span>3200<\/span>\u70b9\u4e0d\u5230\u4e24\u661f\u671f\u5c31\u8dcc\u81f3<\/span>2800<\/span>\u70b9\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u6700\u77a9\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u4e0d\u65ad\u8f6c\u5f31\uff0c\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u4ece<\/span>6.5<\/span>\u6c34\u5e73\u6765\u4e2a\u516b\u8fde\u8dcc\u540e\u5df2\u8dcc\u8fd1<\/span>6.7<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fd1\u671f\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8dcc\u81f3<\/span>7<\/span>\u7b97\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0b\u8dcc\u65e2\u53cd\u6620\u8d44\u91d1\u53ef\u80fd\u5916\u6d41\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bf9\u501a\u8d56\u51fa\u5165\u53e3\u7684\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u9020\u6210\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u6c47\u5151\u635f\u5931\u52a0\u5927\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u6536\u5165\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5165\u53e3\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u539f\u5df2\u8d44\u91d1\u7d27\u7ecc\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e0d\u6613\u71ac\u5f97\u8fc7\u53bb\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u7f8e\u5180\u904f\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u65b0\u79d1\u6280\u53d1\u5c55<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u6b63\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u8f6c\u574f\uff0c\u5411\u6765\u4e00\u9762\u5012\u5439\u6367\u5185\u5730\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5458\u4e0e\u6295\u884c\u4e5f\u5f00\u59cb\u8f6c\u53e3\u98ce\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u66f4\u6307\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e8e\u4e24\u5927\u9677\u9631\u5939\u51fb\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u6613\u514b\u670d\u3002\u6240\u8c13\u4e24\u5927\u9677\u9631\u662f\u6307<\/span>“Thucydides Trap”<\/span>\uff08\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e89\u96c4\uff09\u53ca\u300c\u4e2d\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u9677\u9631\u300d\uff08<\/span>Middle income trap<\/span>\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u4e5f\u8bb8\u6709\u70b9\u8ddf\u7ea2\u9876\u767d\u7684\u610f\u5473\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b97\u6ca1\u6709\u6839\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

“Thucydides Trap”<\/span>\u662f\u4e2a\u76f8\u5f53\u53e4\u8001\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6bd4\u55bb\uff0c\u539f\u672c\u662f\u5f62\u5bb9\u53e4\u5e0c\u814a\u5e74\u4ee3\u96c5\u5178\u4e0e\u65af\u5df4\u8fbe\u4e24\u5f3a\u7684\u5bbf\u547d\u6027\u5bf9\u51b3\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u88ab\u4e00\u518d\u5e94\u7528\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u5386\u53f2\u4e89\u96c4\u60c5\u666f\u4e2d\u5982\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u6218\u524d\u5fb7\u56fd\u5192\u8d77\u6311\u6218\u82f1\u56fd\u9738\u6743\u5f15\u53d1\u51b3\u6218\u3002\u8fd1\u4e24\u5e74\u5219\u6709\u54c8\u4f5b\u5b66\u8005<\/span>Graham Allison<\/span>\u5957\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0a\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5192\u8d77\u6311\u6218\u7f8e\u56fd\u9738\u6743\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u4e24\u8005\u6fc0\u70c8\u89d2\u529b\u4ee5\u81f3\u7206\u53d1\u51b2\u7a81\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u5f53\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u91c7\u53d6\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u79cd\u79cd\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u63aa\u65bd\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u662f\u67aa\u70ae\u5a01\u5413\uff0c\u4f46\u904f\u5236\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ca\u79d1\u6280\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u9632\u6b62\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ca\u79d1\u6280\u4e0a\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u524a\u5f31\u662f\u5f70\u5f70\u660e\u4ec0\u7684\u8003\u8651\u3002\u5f53\u4e2d\u5bf9\u4e2d\u5174\u901a\u8baf\u7684\u60e9\u7f5a\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6d3e\u9a7b\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u5458\u76d1\u5bdf\u662f\u5426\u6709\u8fdd\u89c4\uff09\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u79d1\u6280\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u90fd\u660e\u663e\u662f\u8981\u963b\u788d\u3001\u62d6\u6162\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u300c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5236\u9020<\/span>2025<\/span>\u300d\u89c4\u5212\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e2a\u4eba\u6216\u8bb8\u6ca1\u6709\u523b\u610f\u89c6\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u6218\u7565\u5bf9\u624b\uff0c\u4f46\u79d1\u6280\u4f18\u52bf\u6b63\u6b63\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u9738\u6743\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u4efd\uff1b\u800c\u4ed6\u8eab\u8fb9\u91cd\u8981\u5e55\u50da\u5305\u62ec\u767d\u5bab\u8d38\u6613\u987e\u95ee\u7eb3\u74e6\u7f57\u7b49\u660e\u786e\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u529b\u4e3b\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u91c7\u53d6\u5f3a\u786c\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u5168\u529b\u5728\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4e0a\u8bbe\u9650\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u4eca\u6b21\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5927\u52a0\u5173\u7a0e\u53ca\u8981\u6c42\u4e2d\u56fd\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u7f8e\u51fa\u53e3\u867d\u7136\u6210\u4e3a\u7126\u70b9\uff0c\u4f46\u771f\u6b63\u6218\u573a\u5176\u5b9e\u5728\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u5982\u4f55\u957f\u671f\u5361\u538b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u9ad8\u65b0\u79d1\u6280\u5236\u9020\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5305\u62ec\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u89c6\u4e4b\u4e3a\u957f\u671f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5f3a\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u6bb5\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u4e2d\u56fd\u8ddf\u7f8e\u56fd\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u81f4\u9677\u4e8e\u6709\u300c\u785d\u70df\u300d\u7684\u4ea4\u950b\uff0c\u4f46\u8d38\u6613\u3001\u79d1\u6280\u4e0a\u7684\u89d2\u529b\u5c06\u957f\u671f\u56f0\u6270\u53cc\u65b9\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8bf4\u4e2d\u56fd\u9677\u5165\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684<\/span>“Thucydides Trap”<\/span>\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b97\u9519\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u9677\u9631\u662f\u300c\u4e2d\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u9677\u9631\u300d\uff0c\u6307\u7684\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u5347\u7834\u4eba\u5747\u7ea6\u4e09\u5343\u7f8e\u5143\u540e\u65e0\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7ee7\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u79cd\u79cd\u505c\u6ede\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ca\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u8361\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u7ef4\u6301\u539f\u672c\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u3002\u6700\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u5357\u975e\u53ca\u5df4\u897f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u91d1\u7816\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5979\u4eec\u90fd\u66fe\u4e00\u518d\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e4b\u661f\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u5ba0\u513f\uff0c\u597d\u50cf\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u6324\u8fdb\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u5177\u4e50\u90e8\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u53ef\u539f\u6765\u5979\u4eec\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u53ea\u9760\u8d44\u91d1\u5927\u91cf\u6d41\u5165\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u77ff\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u98de\u5347\uff0c\u5b9e\u8d28\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u7387\u53ca\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u6ca1\u6709\u5927\u5347\uff0c\u5b98\u5458\u8d2a\u6c61\u66f4\u8695\u98df\u4e86\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4ee4\u56fd\u6c11\u96be\u4ee5\u5206\u4eab\u6210\u679c\u3002\u800c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ca\u57fa\u91d1\u5f88\u5feb\u53d1\u73b0\u5979\u4eec\u56de\u62a5\u6b20\u4f73\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u7387\u4f4e\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u8c03\u5165\u8d44\u91d1\u6539\u4e3a\u5927\u5e45\u8d70\u8d44\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u91d1\u878d\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8363\u666f\u767b\u65f6\u53d8\u4e3a\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u66f4\u7cdf\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u5f88\u5feb\u6fc0\u5316\u653f\u6cbb\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u653f\u6cbb\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u59a8\u788d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u3002\u91d1\u7816\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f88\u5feb\u53d8\u56de\u70c2\u94dc\uff0c\u5979\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5219\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u515c\u8f6c\uff0c\u539f\u5730\u8e0f\u6b65\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6362\u8f68\u3000<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u589e\u901f\u968f\u65f6\u653e\u6162<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4ee5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u79ef\u770b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u5168\u7403\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u4eba\u5747<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u4e5f\u6bd4\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u5357\u975e\u7b49\u9ad8\u4e00\u622a\u3002\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u540c\u6837\u5904\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6362\u8f68\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7c97\u653e\u5f0f\u501a\u8d56\u5927\u91cf\u57fa\u5efa\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u8fd0\u7528\u4ed6\u4eba\u79d1\u6280\u6210\u679c\uff08\u7701\u5374\u7814\u53d1\u8d39\u7528\uff09\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u5df2\u65e0\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7ee7\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u5df2\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u5347\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u5b9e\u529b\u53ca\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u624d\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u3002\u53ef\u5728\u4eba\u53e3\u5feb\u901f\u8001\u5316\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5f00\u62d3\u5e02\u573a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f00\u59cb\u6536\u7d27\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u8f6c\u79fb\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bf9\u5916\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u8f6c\u8f68\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u56f0\u96be\u91cd\u91cd\uff0c\u968f\u65f6\u4ee4<\/span>GDP<\/span>\u589e\u901f\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u6162\uff0c\u8d70\u4e0a\u8ddf\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u5357\u975e\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u505c\u6ede\u9677\u9631\u5e76\u4e0d\u5947\u602a\u3002<\/span><\/p>

\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u663e\u7136\u6b63\u8e0f\u8fdb\u53cc\u9677\u9631\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u6bb5\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u574f\u6d88\u606f\u80af\u5b9a\u6bd4\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u591a\u3002<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u9634\u973e\u5bc6\u5e03\u540e\u574f\u6d88\u606f\u4e00\u6d6a\u63a5\u4e00\u6d6a\uff0c\u5148\u662f\u51fa\u5165\u53e3\u6570\u636e\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u5dee\u52b2\uff0c\u63a5\u7740\u662f\u5185\u5730\u80a1\u5e02\u5feb\u901f\u8f6c\u52bf\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4e0a\u8bc1\u6307\u6570\u4ece3 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-84384","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-thought","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84384","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=84384"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84384\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=84384"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=84384"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=84384"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}