{"id":86238,"date":"2018-09-19T10:44:00","date_gmt":"2018-09-19T10:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=86238 "},"modified":"2018-09-19T10:44:00","modified_gmt":"2018-09-19T10:44:00","slug":"86238-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=86238","title":{"rendered":"\u65e5\u672c\u53c2\u52a0\u5357\u6d77\u519b\u6f14\uff0c\u5f3a\u786c\u53cd\u51fb\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u571f\u4e3b\u5f20"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e1c\u4eac——\u4e00\u8258\u65e5\u672c\u6f5c\u8247\u4e0a\u5468\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u5357\u6d77\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6f14\u4e60\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5b83\u6b63\u5728\u8bbf\u95ee\u8d8a\u5357\uff0c\u8fd9\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u65e5\u672c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u9886\u571f\u4e3b\u5f20\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u66f4\u52a0\u5f3a\u786c\u7684\u53cd\u51fb\u3002<\/span><\/p>

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\u65e5\u672c\u4e8e\u5468\u4e00\u91c7\u53d6\u4e0d\u5bfb\u5e38\u7684\u4e3e\u63aa\uff0c\u5ba3\u5e03\u5b83\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e86\u6f14\u4e60\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u4e24\u8258\u9a71\u9010\u8230\u548c\u4e00\u67b6\u76f4\u5347\u673a\u822a\u6bcd\u3002\u9632\u52a1\u7701\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6f14\u4e60\u5e76\u975e\u9488\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f46\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5411\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u51fa\u7684\u660e\u786e\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

“\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e3a\u6240\u6b32\u4e3a\u5e76\u9003\u8131\u60e9\u7f5a\uff0c”\u4e1c\u4eac\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u5927\u5b66\u9662\u5927\u5b66<\/span>(National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)<\/span>\u5b89\u5168\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u9879\u76ee\u4e3b\u4efb\u9053\u4e0b\u5fb7\u6210<\/span>(Narushige Michishita)<\/span>\u8bf4\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u8fd9\u6b21\u662f\u65e5\u672c\u5728\u5357\u6d77\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u6f14\u4e60\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u6d3e\u51fa\u6f5c\u8247\u53c2\u52a0\u3002\u9632\u536b\u7701\u548c\u5728\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e4b\u524d\u7206\u51fa\u6d88\u606f\u7684\u62a5\u7eb8\u300a\u671d\u65e5\u65b0\u95fb\u300b<\/span>(Asahi Shimbun)<\/span>\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u8bf4\u6f14\u4e60\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u8be5\u6f5c\u8247“\u9ed1\u6f6e\u53f7”<\/span>(Kuroshio)<\/span>\u4e8e\u5468\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5728\u8d8a\u5357\u8fdb\u884c\u4e3a\u671f\u4e94\u5929\u7684\u6e2f\u53e3\u505c\u6cca\uff0c\u5b83\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u65e5\u672c\u4e0e\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5de9\u56fa\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e00\u76f4\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u9886\u571f\u4e3b\u5f20\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4e2d\u56fd\u58f0\u79f0\u5357\u6d77\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u662f\u5176\u9886\u571f\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u5c9b\u5c7f\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u57fa\u5730\u3002\u5305\u62ec\u8d8a\u5357\u548c\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u5728\u5185\u7684\u516d\u4e2a\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u5357\u6d77\u7684\u5404\u90e8\u5206\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u76f8\u4e92\u5bf9\u6297\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u5305\u62ec\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u5728\u5185\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5728\u8b66\u60d5\u5730\u6ce8\u89c6\u7740\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u9000\u51fa\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u5f00\u59cb\u6311\u6218\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9738\u6743\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

 <\/p>

 <\/p>

\u65e5\u672c\u8fdb\u884c\u6f14\u4e60\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u6b63\u5728\u5347\u6e29\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u9996\u76f8\u5b89\u500d\u664b\u4e09<\/span>(Shinzo Abe)<\/span>\u8ba1\u5212\u4e0b\u4e2a\u6708\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u4f1a\u89c1\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65e5\u672c\u4e0e\u5176\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4ed6\u6b63\u5728\u505a\u51fa\u8bd5\u63a2\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

“\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u8868\u660e\u73b0\u6709\u5173\u7cfb\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c”\u590f\u5a01\u5937\u5927\u5b66\u9a6c\u8bfa\u963f\u5206\u6821<\/span>(University of Hawaii at Manoa)<\/span>\u4e9a\u6d32\u7814\u7a76\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u8482·\u6208\u7ef4\u62c9<\/span>(Kristi Govella)<\/span>\u8bf4\u3002“\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\uff0c\u5f7c\u6b64\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5171\u540c\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb\u3002”<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u65e5\u672c\u5728\u4e1c\u6d77\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u9886\u571f\u4e89\u7aef\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u90fd\u58f0\u79f0\u5bf9\u90a3\u91cc\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5c9b\u5c7f\u62e5\u6709\u6743\u5229\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u5c16\u9601\u8bf8\u5c9b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u9493\u9c7c\u5c9b\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e24\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8054\u7cfb\u65e5\u76ca\u7d27\u5bc6\uff0c\u4f46\u65e5\u672c\u4ecd\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u91cd\u542f\u6709\u5173\u4e00\u9879\u5168\u9762\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u5b9a\u7684\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c06\u4e2d\u56fd\u6392\u9664\u5728\u5916\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u96c6\u56e2\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

“\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u5c06\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u89c6\u4e3a\u670b\u53cb\u6216\u654c\u4eba\uff0c”\u9000\u5f79\u6d77\u519b\u4e2d\u5c06\u3001\u73b0\u4efb\u91d1\u6cfd\u5de5\u4e1a\u5927\u5b66<\/span>(Kanazawa Institute of Technology)<\/span>\u5371\u673a\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u7684\u4f0a\u85e4\u4fca\u884c\uff08<\/span>Toshiyuki Ito<\/span>\uff0c\u97f3\uff09\u8bf4\u3002“\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u7ec8\u4e8e\u6210\u719f\u4e86\uff0c\u7528\u53f3\u624b\u63e1\u624b\uff0c\u5de6\u624b\u63e1\u62f3\u3002\u8fd9\u5728<\/span>20<\/span>\u5e74\u524d\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u3002”<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u548c\u6cd5\u56fd\u90fd\u6d3e\u9063\u519b\u8230\u901a\u8fc7\u5357\u6d77\uff0c\u8fd9\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u4e0a\u904f\u5236\u4e2d\u56fd\u96c4\u5fc3\u58ee\u5fd7\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u76df\u53cb\u4eec\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

 <\/p>

 <\/p>

“\u7f8e\u56fd\u76df\u56fd\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u7d27\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\u8fc7\u53bb\u53ea\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u91c7\u53d6\uff0c”\u65b0\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b89\u5168\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/span>(Center for New American Security)<\/span>\u4e9a\u592a\u5b89\u5168\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u963f\u6bd4\u76d6\u5c14·\u683c\u96f7\u65af<\/span>(Abigail Grace)<\/span>\u8bf4\u3002“\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u5c06\u771f\u6b63\u635f\u5bb3\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u800c\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b63\u5728\u79ef\u6781\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u5b83\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002”<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u53d1\u8a00\u4eba\u803f\u723d\u5728\u4f8b\u884c\u8bb0\u8005\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u4e0a\u88ab\u95ee\u5230\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u6f14\u4e60\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6b63\u5728“\u59a5\u5584\u5904\u7406\u5f7c\u6b64\u95f4”\u5728\u5357\u6d77\u7684\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u6566\u4fc3\u65e5\u672c“\u5c0a\u91cd”\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52aa\u529b\uff0c“\u4e0d\u8981\u505a\u635f\u5bb3\u5730\u533a\u548c\u5e73\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u4e8b”\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u603b\u7edf\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u634d\u536b\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u63d0\u51fa\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u6697\u793a\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u64a4\u56de\u5176\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u97e9\u56fd\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u91cd\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u5176\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e86\u4e0e\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u8d8a\u5357\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

“\u65e5\u672c\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u7f8e\u65e5\u540c\u76df\u5c06\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5a01\u6151\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c”\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u56fd\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u4e1c\u5317\u4e9a\u5173\u7cfb\u8bb2\u5e08\u52b3\u4f26·\u7406\u67e5\u68ee<\/span>(Lauren Richardson)<\/span>\u8bf4\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u5357\u6d77\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e89\u7aef\u4e2d\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u9886\u571f\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b83\u7ecf\u5e38\u5728\u90a3\u7247\u6d77\u57df\u8fdb\u884c\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u822a\u884c\u81ea\u7531\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u6839\u636e\u6218\u7565\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/span>(Center for Strategic and International Studies)<\/span>\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6709\u4ef7\u503c<\/span>3.37<\/span>\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u901a\u8fc7\u5357\u6d77\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0e\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4fdd\u6301\u822a\u9053\u7545\u901a\u65b9\u9762\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u5229\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u5f53\u4e00\u8258\u7f8e\u56fd\u822a\u7a7a\u6bcd\u8230\u4e8e<\/span>3<\/span>\u6708\u5728\u8d8a\u5357\u6e2f\u53e3\u505c\u6cca\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u65b9\u5b98\u5458\u5c06\u6b64\u6b21\u8bbf\u95ee\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u4fc3\u8fdb\u5730\u533a\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u59ff\u6001\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

 <\/p>

 <\/p>

\u65e5\u672c\u6d77\u4e0a\u81ea\u536b\u961f\u53d1\u8a00\u4eba\u897f\u7530\u5eb7\u592b\uff08<\/span>Yasuo Nishida<\/span>\uff0c\u97f3\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u672c\u5468\u6f5c\u8247\u5728\u91d1\u5170\u6e7e\u8fdb\u884c\u6e2f\u53e3\u505c\u9760\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u7684\u662f“\u4e0e\u8d8a\u5357\u8fdb\u884c\u53cb\u597d\u4ea4\u6d41”\u3002\u5728\u4e3a\u671f\u4e94\u5929\u7684\u8bbf\u95ee\u4e2d\uff0c“\u9ed1\u6f6e\u53f7”\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4eba\u5458\u5c06\u4e0e\u8d8a\u5357\u540c\u884c\u4e00\u8d77\u5403\u996d\u548c\u8e22\u8db3\u7403\u3002<\/span><\/p>

 <\/p>

\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u8bbf\u95ee\u8fdc\u4e0d\u6b62\u4e8e\u6b64\u3002“\u65e5\u672c\u6b63\u5728\u540c\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u9886\u571f\u4e89\u7aef\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fdb\u884c\u63a5\u89e6\uff0c”\u6770\u5f17\u91cc·<\/span>W<\/span>·\u970d\u6069<\/span>(Jeffrey W. Hornung)<\/span>\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u5170\u5fb7\u516c\u53f8<\/span>(RAND Corporation)<\/span>\u4e13\u95e8\u7814\u7a76\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002“\u8fd9\u662f\u5411\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u51fa\u7684\u4fe1\u606f——\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u63a5\u89e6\u5e76\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u5408\u4f5c\u3002”<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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