{"id":87775,"date":"2020-04-08T01:04:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-08T01:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=87775 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Holzman\uff09\uff0c\u4eba\u6743\u8054\u76df\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba\u963f\u5170\u00b7\u5e03\u514b\uff08Alain Bouc\uff09\u5148\u751f\u4e0e\u5218\u6653\u6ce2\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u6587\u68ee\u7279\u00b7\u5e03\u6d1b\u585e\u5c14\u5148\u751f\uff08Vincent Brosel\uff09\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u6743\u5fc5\u987b\u4e3a\u6b64\u6b21\u8513\u5ef6\u5168\u7403\u7684\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u761f\u75ab\u627f\u62c5\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5317\u4eac\u9690\u7792\u75ab\u60c5\u771f\u76f8\uff0c\u800c\u4e16\u754c\u536b\u751f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u5a92\u4f53\u5374\u90fd\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u636e\u300a\u4eca\u65e5\u5370\u5ea6\u300b4\u67084\u65e5\u665a\u95f4\u7684\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u603b\u90e8\u8bbe\u5728\u4f26\u6566\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u6cd5\u5b66\u5bb6\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff0c\u65e5\u524d\u53ec\u5f00\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\uff0c\u79f0\u5df2\u6566\u4fc3\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u4eba\u6743\u7406\u4e8b\u4f1a\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u5176\u201c\u4e25\u91cd\u5371\u5bb3\u4eba\u7c7b\u7f6a\u201d\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u793a\u8303\u6027\u635f\u5bb3\u8d54\u507f\u201d\u3002\u73b0\u4efb\u56fd\u9645\u6cd5\u9662\u4e3b\u5e2d\u963f\u8fea\u4ec0\u00b7C\u00b7\u963f\u683c\u52a0\u74e6\u62c9\u6765\u81ea\u5370\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u8bb0\u8005\u8bf4\uff1a\u4e2d\u65b9\u6ca1\u6709\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u963b\u6b62\u8fd9\u79cd\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4ee4\u5168\u7403\u4f01\u4e1a\u81f3\u5c11\u635f\u5931\u4e86\u6570\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e76\u5bfc\u81f4\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u5de5\u4eba\u5931\u4e1a\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u3001\u5728\u6b27\u7f8e\u3001\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u90fd\u5728\u8ffd\u8d23\u6b64\u6b21\u8513\u5ef6\u5168\u7403\u7684\u707e\u96be\u6027\u761f\u75ab\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u7231\u4e01\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u7ed9\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4e13\u5bb6\u987e\u95ee\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u6388\u4e88\u9996\u4e2a\u6770\u51fa\u6821\u53cb\u5956\uff1f\u82f1\u56fd\u7231\u4e01\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u5230\u5e95\u8981\u5956\u52b1\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff1f<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><strong>\u4e09\u3001\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u56e2\u961f\u4e3a\u8ffd\u8d23\u548c\u8d54\u507f\u63d0\u4f9b\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u8981\u6c42\u8d54\u507f\u7684\u6700\u96be\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u635f\u5931\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u56e2\u961f\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e3a\u6b64\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8fd9\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u82f1\u56fd\u7231\u4e01\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u6388\u5956\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u5728\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u8c01\u6700\u65e9\u4f7f\u7528\u4e2d\u56fd\u75c5\u6bd2\uff08\u4e2d\u56fdCOVID-19\uff09\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\uff1f\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u7b14\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u56e2\u961f\u6700\u65e9\u4f7f\u7528\u4e2d\u56fd\u75c5\u6bd2\uff08\u4e2d\u56fdCOVID-19\uff09\u4e00\u8bcd\u3002\u65e2\u7136\u4e2d\u56fd\u75c5\u6bd2\uff08\u4e2d\u56fdCOVID-19\uff09\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u536b\u5065\u59d4\u9ad8\u7ea7\u522b\u4e13\u5bb6\u7ec4\u7ec4\u957f\u3001\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u6700\u65e9\u63d0\u51fa\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u90a3\u4e9b\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u75c5\u6bd2\uff08\u4e2d\u56fdCOVID-19\uff09\u6240\u8c13\u6c61\u540d\u5316\u7684\u6307\u8d23\u90fd\u662f\u65e0\u4e8b\u751f\u975e\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><\/div><div>\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u56e2\u961f\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u8457\u540d\u7684\u300aJournal of Thoracic Disease\u300b\uff08\u300a\u80f8\u8154\u75be\u75c5\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\u7b2c12\u5377\u7b2c3\u671f2020\u5e743\u6708\uff09\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u9898\u4e3a\u300aModified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions\u300b\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u30022020\u5e743\u67082\u65e5\u548c3\u67083\u65e5\u4e2d\u56fd\u5404\u5927\u5a92\u4f53\u5747\u4ee5\u300a\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u56e2\u961f\uff1a\u5982\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u63a8\u8fdf5\u5929\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u89c4\u6a21\u9884\u4f30\u5c06\u6269\u5927\u81f33\u500d\u300b\u52a0\u4ee5\u62a5\u9053\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><\/div><div>\u62a5\u9053\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u8fd1\u65e5\uff0c\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u56e2\u961f\u5728 Journal of Thoracic Disease \u53d1\u8868 \u201c\u57fa\u4e8e SEIR \u4f18\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u548c AI \u5bf9\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u5e72\u9884\u4e0b\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd COVID-19 \u66b4\u53d1\u8d8b\u52bf\u9884\u6d4b\u201d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86COVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u5168\u56fd\u57282\u6708\u4e0b\u65ec\u8fbe\u5230\u9ad8\u5cf0\uff0c4\u6708\u5e95\u8d8b\u4e8e\u5e73\u7f13\u3002\u5982\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u63a8\u8fdf5\u5929\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u89c4\u6a21\u9884\u4f30\u5c06\u6269\u5927\u81f33\u500d\uff1b\u5982\u51cf\u4f4e\u6b66\u6c49\u7ba1\u63a7\u529b\u5ea6\uff0c\u6e56\u5317\u53ef\u80fd\u57283\u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\u51fa\u73b0\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u75ab\u60c5\u9ad8\u5cf0\u5e76\u5ef6\u7eed\u81f34\u6708\u4e0b\u65ec\u3002\u201d<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><\/div><div>\u4e2d\u56fd\u5404\u5927\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5982\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u63a8\u8fdf5\u5929\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u89c4\u6a21\u9884\u4f30\u5c06\u6269\u5927\u81f33\u500d\u3002\u5a92\u4f53\u8981\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u6b66\u6c49\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u53ca\u65f6\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u5fb7\u56fd\u6709\u53e5\u4fd7\u8bdd\uff0c\u534a\u74f6\u6c34\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u534a\u74f6\u662f\u6ee1\u7684\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u534a\u74f6\u662f\u7a7a\u7684\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u770b\u8bb2\u8bdd\u7684\u4eba\u60f3\u5f3a\u8c03\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u60f3\u5f3a\u8c03\u74f6\u4e2d\u6709\u6c34\uff0c\u5c31\u8bf4\u534a\u74f6\u662f\u6ee1\u7684\uff1b\u60f3\u5f3a\u8c03\u74f6\u4e2d\u7f3a\u6c34\uff0c\u5c31\u8bf4\u534a\u74f6\u662f\u7a7a\u7684\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u4e2d\u56fd\u5404\u5927\u5a92\u4f53\u60f3\u5f3a\u8c03\u74f6\u4e2d\u6709\u6c34\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u7247\u9762\u5730\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u56e2\u961f\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u63a8\u8fdf5\u5929\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u89c4\u6a21\u9884\u4f30\u5c06\u6269\u5927\u81f33\u500d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u63d0\u524d5\u5929\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u89c4\u6a21\u9884\u4f30\u53ea\u662f\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/UploadCenter\/ArticlePics\/2020\/14\/202047cai0482.jpg\" width=\"948\" height=\"838\" alt=\"\" \/>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u56fe3\uff1a\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u603b\u7ed3\uff0c\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u300aModified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions\u300b\uff0c \u300aJournal of Thoracic Disease\u300b\uff08\u300a\u80f8\u8154\u75be\u75c5\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\u7b2c12\u5377\u7b2c3\u671f2020\u5e743\u6708\uff09<\/div><div><\/div><div>\u2003<\/div><div>\u5c06\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u90e8\u5206\u7ed3\u679c\u7ffb\u8bd1\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/div><div>SEIR<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5730\u533a\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd<\/div><div><span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t\t\t<\/span>\u75ab\u60c5\u89c4\u6a21<\/div><div>\u63aa\u65bd\u5b9e\u65bd\u65f6\u95f4<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>\u622a\u81f3\u65f6\u95f4<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>\u6bcf\u5929\u65b0\u589e<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>\u622a\u81f3\u65f6\u95f4<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>\u7d2f\u8ba1\u75c5\u4f8b<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>\u603b\u75c5\u4f8b<\/div><div>1\u670823\u65e5<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>2\u67087\u65e5<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>4169\u4f8b<\/div><div>\uff0895% CI\uff1a3615\uff0c4919\uff09<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>2\u670828\u65e5<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>59764\u4f8b<\/div><div>\uff0895% CI\uff1a51979\uff0c70172\uff09<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>122122\u4f8b<\/div><div>\uff0895% CI\uff1a89741\uff0c156794\uff09<\/div><div>\u63d0\u524d\u4e94\u5929<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>2\u67082\u65e5<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>1391\u4f8b<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>2\u670823\u65e5<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>19962\u4f8b<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>40991\u4f8b<\/div><div>\u63a8\u8fdf\u4e94\u5929<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>2\u670812\u65e5<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>12118\u4f8b<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>3\u67084\u65e5<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>173372\u4f8b<span style=\"white-space:pre\">\t<\/span>351874\u4f8b<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/UploadCenter\/ArticlePics\/2020\/14\/202047cai0483.jpg\" width=\"932\" height=\"302\" alt=\"\" \/>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><\/div><div>2020\u5e741\u670823\u65e5\u662f\u6b66\u6c49\u5c01\u57ce\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c15\u5929\u540e\uff0c\u52302\u67087\u65e5\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u65b0\u589e\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e3a4169\u4f8b\uff08\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u4e3a95%\uff0c3615\u4f8b\u81f34919\u4f8b\uff09\uff1b36\u5929\u540e\uff0c\u52302\u670828\u65e5\uff0c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e3a59764\u4f8b\uff08\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u4e3a95%\uff0c51979\u4f8b\u81f370172\u4f8b\uff09\uff1b\u672c\u6b21\u75ab\u60c5\u603b\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e3a122122\u4f8b\uff08\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u4e3a95%\uff0c89741\u4f8b\u81f3156794\u4f8b\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u5982\u679c\u6b66\u6c49\u5c01\u57ce\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u63a8\u8fdf\u4e94\u5929\uff0c15\u5929\u540e\uff0c\u52302\u670812\u65e5\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u65b0\u589e\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e3a12118\u4f8b\uff1b36\u5929\u540e\uff0c\u52303\u67084\u65e5\uff0c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e3a173372\u4f8b\uff1b\u672c\u6b21\u75ab\u60c5\u603b\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e3a351874\u4f8b\uff1b<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u5982\u679c\u6b66\u6c49\u5c01\u57ce\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u63d0\u524d\u4e94\u5929\uff0c15\u5929\u540e\uff0c\u52302\u67082\u65e5\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u65b0\u589e\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e3a4169\u4f8b\uff1b36\u5929\u540e\uff0c\u52302\u670823\u65e5\uff0c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e3a19962\u4f8b\uff1b\u672c\u6b21\u75ab\u60c5\u603b\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e3a40991\u4f8b\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u4e2d\u56fd\u5404\u5927\u5a92\u4f53\u53ea\u62a5\u9053\u4e86\u5982\u679c\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u63a8\u8fdf5\u5929\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba15\u5929\u540e\u7684\u6bcf\u5929\u65b0\u589e\u75c5\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f36\u5929\u540e\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u75c5\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u603b\u75c5\u4f8b\uff0c\u90fd\u662f1\u670823\u65e5\u6b66\u6c49\u5c01\u57ce\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5927\u7ea6\u4e09\u500d\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u4f46\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5404\u5927\u5a92\u4f53\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u63d0\u524d5\u5929\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba15\u5929\u540e\u7684\u6bcf\u5929\u65b0\u589e\u75c5\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f36\u5929\u540e\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u75c5\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u603b\u75c5\u4f8b\uff0c\u90fd\u662f1\u670823\u65e5\u6b66\u6c49\u5c01\u57ce\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5927\u7ea6\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u56e2\u961f\u4e3a\u8ffd\u8d23\u548c\u8d54\u507f\u63d0\u4f9b\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u63d0\u524d5\u5929\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u89c4\u6a21\u9884\u4f30\u5c06\u7f29\u5c0f\u81f3\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff01\u8fd9\u662f\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u56e2\u961f\u91cf\u5316\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u56e2\u961f\u63d0\u4f9b\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u56e2\u961f\u63d0\u4f9b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u5df1\u6700\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u4e13\u5bb6\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u79d1\u7814\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u6700\u65e9\u53d1\u751f\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u4e0b\u9762\u662f\u7b14\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u524d\u5b9e\u65bd\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8282\u70b9\uff1a<\/div><div>2020\u5e741\u670818\u65e5\uff1b<\/div><div>2020\u5e741\u67087\u65e5\uff1b<\/div><div>2020\u5e741\u67083\u65e5\uff1b<\/div><div>2019\u5e7412\u670830\u65e5\u3002<\/div><div>\u65f6\u95f4\u8282\u70b91\uff1a2020\u5e741\u670818\u65e5<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><\/div><div>\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u56e2\u961f\u5728\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u6e56\u5317\u7701\u81f32020\u5e741\u670825\u65e5\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\uff1a<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/UploadCenter\/ArticlePics\/2020\/14\/202047cai0484.jpg\" width=\"726\" height=\"588\" alt=\"\" \/>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u56fe4\uff1a\u6e56\u5317\u7701\u7d2f\u8ba1\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\uff1a\uff0c\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u300aModified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions\u300b\uff0c \u300aJournal of Thoracic Disease\u300b\uff08\u300a\u80f8\u8154\u75be\u75c5\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\u7b2c12\u5377\u7b2c3\u671f2020\u5e743\u6708\uff09<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>\u4ece\u8fd9\u5f20\u8868\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u4ece1\u670817\u65e5\u768462\u4f8b\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\u52301\u670818\u65e5\u7684121\u4f8b\uff0c\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e00\u756a\uff0c\u662f\u8fd9\u5f20\u8868\u4e2d\u76f8\u5bf9\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u30021\u670818\u65e5\u5e94\u8be5\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\u4e86\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5929\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u63d0\u524d\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd5\u5929\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u89c4\u6a21\u9884\u4f30\u5c06\u7f29\u5c0f\u81f3\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff01<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><\/div><div>\u65f6\u95f4\u8282\u70b92\uff1a2020\u5e741\u67087\u65e5<\/div><div>\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u591a\u6b21\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u6b64\u6b21\u5927\u56fd\u6297\u75ab\uff0c\u662f\u4ed6\u4eb2\u81ea\u90e8\u7f72\u3001\u4eb2\u81ea\u6307\u6325\u30022020\u5e742\u670815\u65e5\u300a\u6c42\u662f\u300b\u520a\u8f7d\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4e8e2\u67083\u65e5\u5728\u4e2d\u592e\u5e38\u59d4\u4f1a\u7684\u8c08\u8bdd\u5168\u6587\u3002\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6b66\u6c49\u65b0\u578b\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u53d1\u751f\u540e\uff0c1\u67087\u65e5\uff0c\u6211\u4e3b\u6301\u53ec\u5f00\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u6cbb\u5c40\u5e38\u59d4\u4f1a\u4f1a\u8bae\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u5bf9\u65b0\u578b\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u9632\u63a7\u5de5\u4f5c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8981\u6c42\u201d\u3002<\/div><div>\u5982\u679c1\u67087\u65e5\u5b9e\u65bd\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u6bd41\u670823\u65e5\u63d0\u524d\u4e8616\u5929\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u89c4\u6a21\u9884\u4f30\u5c06\u7f29\u5c0f\u81f3\u5c06\u7ea6\u4e09\u5341\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff01<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><\/div><div>\u65f6\u95f4\u8282\u70b93\uff1a2020\u5e741\u67083\u65e5<\/div><div>2020\u5e742\u67083\u65e5\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u53d1\u8a00\u4eba\u534e\u6625\u83b9\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u57282020\u5e741\u67083\u65e5\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u901a\u62a5\u4e86\u75ab\u60c5\u3002\u81ea1\u67083\u65e5\u8d77\uff0c\u517130\u6b21\u5411\u7f8e\u65b9\u901a\u62a5\u75ab\u60c5\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u9632\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/div><div>\u5982\u679c1\u67083\u65e5\u5b9e\u65bd\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u6bd41\u670823\u65e5\u63d0\u524d\u4e8620\u5929\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u89c4\u6a21\u9884\u4f30\u5c06\u7f29\u5c0f\u81f3\u5c06\u7ea6\u516b\u5341\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff01<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><\/div><div>\u65f6\u95f4\u8282\u70b94\uff1a2019\u5e7412\u670830\u65e5<\/div><div>2019\u5e7412\u670830\u65e5\u4e0b\u5348\u6b66\u6c49\u4e2d\u5fc3\u533b\u9662\u533b\u751f\u827e\u82ac\u62ff\u5230\u904e\u4e00\u4efd\u4e0d\u660e\u80ba\u708e\u75c5\u4eba\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\u68c0\u6d4b\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5979\u7528\u7ea2\u7b14\u5708\u51fa\u201cSARS\u51a0\u72c0\u75c5\u6bd2\u201d\u5b57\u6837\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5c07\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u62cd\u4e0b\u4f86\u4f20\u7ed9\u522b\u7684\u533b\u751f\u3002\u827e\u82ac\u533b\u751f\u53d1\u51fa\u4e86\u54e8\u5b50\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><\/div><div>\u674e\u6587\u4eae\u533b\u751f\u5728\u6536\u5230\u540c\u4e8b\u53d1\u7ed9\u4ed6\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u6b66\u6c49\u5927\u5b66\u4e34\u5e8a04\u7ea7\u201d\u4e2d\u8f6c\u53d1\u3001\u53d1\u5e03\u201c\u534e\u5357\u6c34\u679c\u6d77\u9c9c\u5e02\u573a\u786e\u8bca\u4e867\u4f8bSARS\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u533b\u9662\u540e\u6e56\u9662\u533a\u6025\u8bca\u79d1\u9694\u79bb\u201d\u7b49\u6587\u5b57\u4fe1\u606f\u548c1\u5f20\u6807\u6709\u201cSARS\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u68c0\u51fa\u3008\u9ad8\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3009\u9633\u6027\u6307\u6807\u201d\u7b49\u5b57\u6837\u7684\u4e34\u5e8a\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u7b5b\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u56fe\u7247\u30011\u6bb5\u65f6\u957f11\u79d2\u7684\u80ba\u90e8CT\u89c6\u9891\u3002\u4e4b\u540e\u53c8\u5728\u8be5\u7fa4\u53d1\u5e03\u201c\u6700\u65b0\u6d88\u606f\u662f\uff0c\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u611f\u67d3\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u75c5\u6bd2\u5206\u578b\u201d\u201c\u5927\u5bb6\u4e0d\u8981\u5916\u4f20\uff0c\u8ba9\u5bb6\u4eba\u4eb2\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u9632\u8303\u201d\u3002\u674e\u6587\u4eae\u533b\u751f\u5439\u54cd\u54e8\u5b50\u3002<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><\/div><div>\u5982\u679c\u5728\u827e\u82ac\u533b\u751f\u53d1\u51fa\u54e8\u5b50\uff0c\u674e\u6587\u4eae\u533b\u751f\u5439\u54cd\u54e8\u5b50\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c2019\u5e7412\u670830\u65e5\u5c31\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u6bd41\u670823\u65e5\u63d0\u524d\u4e8624\u5929\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u89c4\u6a21\u9884\u4f30\u5c06\u7f29\u5c0f\u81f3\u5c06\u7ea6\u4e8c\u767e\u56db\u5341\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff01<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div><\/div><div>\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u9662\u58eb\u56e2\u961f\u4e3a\u8ffd\u8d23\u548c\u8d54\u507f\u63d0\u4f9b\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u635f\u5931\u53ef\u4ee5\u91cf\u5316\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u949f\u5357\u5c71\u662f\u529f\u4e0d\u53ef\u6ca1\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u6709\u8d44\u683c\u83b7\u5f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