{"id":88220,"date":"2020-09-21T01:10:00","date_gmt":"2020-09-21T01:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1:10081\/?p=88220 "},"modified":"2020-09-21T01:10:00","modified_gmt":"2020-09-21T01:10:00","slug":"88220-revision-v1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=88220","title":{"rendered":"\u91cd\u5be9\u5efa\u7acb\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5148\u6c7a\u793e\u6703\u689d\u4ef6\uff1a\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff13\u5e74\u5ea6\u5927\u9078\u7684\u81f4\u8a5e"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><\/div><div><strong>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u897f\u83ab\u723e&#8231;\u99ac\u4e01&#8231;\u5c3c\u85a9\uff08Seymour Martin Lipset\uff09(\u53c8\u8bd1:\u897f\u6469&#183;\u9a6c\u4e01&#183;\u5229\u666e\u585e\u7279)<\/strong><\/div><div><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/div><div><strong>\u8b6f\u8005\uff1a\u674e\u52bc\u3000(Jie Li)<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><strong>\u5168\u6587\u7c21\u4ecb<\/strong><\/div><div><strong>\u5728\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e86\u5f71\u97ff\u5168\u7403\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u5efa\u8a2d\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u904e\u7a0b\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u5404\u7a2e\u5404\u6a23\u7684\u6587\u5316\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u5b97\u6559\u50b3\u7d71\uff0c\u9078\u8209\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u500b\u5177\u6709\u53c3\u8207\u6027\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u9ee8\u6d3e\u61c9\u8a72\u91c7\u53d6\u4f55\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\u4fdd\u6301\u793e\u6703\u7a4f\u5b9a\u3002\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u662f\uff1a\u5728\u7576\u4eca\u5168\u7403\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u65b0\u751f\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u91cc\uff0c\u5176\u653f\u6b0a\u5927\u591a\u53ea\u6709\u5f88\u4f4e\u8a8d\u53ef\u5ea6\u548c\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u9019\u4e9b\u653f\u6b0a\u8981\u89e3\u6c7a\u7684\u9996\u8981\u554f\u984c\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u5176\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u9577\u6cbb\u4e45\u5b89\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u548c\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u5f88\u591a\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u958b\u59cb\u662f\u4f34\u96a8\u5176\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u578b\u6240\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u793e\u6703\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u5df2\u69cb\u6210\u4e86\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u5efa\u8a2d\u7684\u5a01\u8107\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6b0a\u6700\u9700\u8981\u7684\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7ba1\u6cbb\uff08efficacy\uff09\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u57df\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u5728\u653f\u5236\u9818\u57df\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9019\u4e9b\u653f\u6b0a\u80fd\u5728\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5efa\u8a2d\u4e2d\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u6548\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4fbf\u80fd\u76f8\u61c9\u5730\u4fdd\u6301\u5176\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u7a4f\u5b9a\u3002\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u8aaa\u4e5f\u4e00\u6a23\uff1a\u5047\u5982\u9019\u4e9b\u653f\u6b0a\u4e0d\u80fd\u70ba\u5176\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u8863\u98df\u4f4f\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u4fdd\u969c\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u751f\u6839\u767c\u82bd\u3002<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><\/div><div><\/div><div><\/div><div><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/UploadCenter\/ArticlePics\/2020\/38\/2020920cai092100.jpg\" width=\"276\" height=\"182\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><\/div><div><\/div><div>\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6027\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u4ea8\u5ef7\u9813\uff08Huntington \uff0c1991\uff09\u6240\u5b9a\u7fa9\u7684&#8220;\u7b2c\u4e09\u6d6a\u6f6e&#8221;\uff08the third\u3000wave\uff09\uff0c\u662f\u59cb\u65bc\u4e03\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u7684\u5357\u6b50\u3002\u7136\u5f8c\u5728\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u548c\u4e2d\u671f\uff0c\u9019\u80a1\u6d6a\u6f6e\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u548c\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e9e\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u97d3\u570b\uff0c\u6cf0\u570b\u548c\u83f2\u5f8b\u8cd3\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u5728\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u671f\u548c\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u62b5\u9054\u6771\u6b50\uff0c\u524d\u8607\u806f\u548c\u6492\u54c8\u62c9\u4ee5\u5357\u7684\u90e8\u4efd\u975e\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u3002\u50c5\u50c5\u5728\u4e0d\u4e45\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u806f\u5408\u570b\u7684\u6210\u54e1\u540d\u55ae\u4e2d\u7d55\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u90fd\u662f\u5a01\u6b0a\u570b\u5bb6\uff08authoritarian systems\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u5230\u4e86\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff13\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u8d85\u904e\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u806f\u5408\u570b\u6210\u54e1\u570b\uff0c\u5373\uff11\uff18\uff16\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e2d\u7684\uff11\uff10\uff17\u500b\uff0c\u90fd\u5df2\u7d93\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u7af6\u722d\u6027\u7684\u9078\u8209\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u78ba\u7acb\u5176\u516c\u6c11\u7684\u5404\u5f0f\u5404\u6a23\u653f\u6cbb\u53c3\u8207\u6b0a\u548c\u4eba\u6b0a\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6bd4\u4f8b\u662f\uff11\uff19\uff17\uff10\u5e74\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u7684\u5169\u500d(Karatnycky 1994: 6; Freedom Review 1993: 3-4, 10)\u3002\u5728\u73fe\u6642\u5168\u7403\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5efa\u8a2d\u4e2d\uff0c\u9032\u5c55\u6700\u6162\u7684\u662f\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u570b\u5bb6\uff08\u7a0d\u5f8c\u6211\u6703\u56de\u61c9\u70ba\u4f55\u9019\u5176\u4e2d\u5f88\u5c11\u570b\u5bb6\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\uff09\u548c\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u90e8\u4efd\u570b\u5bb6\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u4f46&#8220;\u8d85\u904e\u4e09\u5341\u500b\u975e\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u5df2\u7d93\u8655\u65bc\u5f9e\u5a01\u6b0a\u6216\u8ecd\u6b0a\u653f\u5e9c\u8f49\u8b8a\u81f3\u591a\u5143\u653f\u5236\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d&#8221; (Schneidman 1992: 1; Diamond 1992 b: 38-39; Diamond, 1993 b: 34)\u3002\u8f49\u8b8a\u6210\u70ba\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u4e26\u975e\u4e00\u5e06\u98a8\u9806\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u6709\u7740\u60a0\u4e45\u5a01\u6b0a\u653f\u5236\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u8f03\u96e3\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u548c\u4fe1\u4ef0\u90fd\u8207\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5167\u6db5\u4e92\u76f8\u62b5\u89f8\u3002<\/div><div>\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u7d93\u5178\u8457\u4f5c\uff08Capitalism, Socialism,\u3000and Democracy\uff09\u91cc\uff0cSchumpeter (1950)\u5c0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e00\u8a5e\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff1a&#8220;\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u5b89\u6392\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u4ee4\u5230\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u516c\u6c11\u5f97\u5230\u6b0a\u5229\u548c\u53c3\u8207\u7af6\u722d\u6027\u7684\u9078\u8209\u53bb\u9054\u81f3\u5168\u6c11\u6027\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6c7a\u5b9a&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff12\uff15\uff10\uff09\u3002 \u3000\u9019\u500b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u904e\u65bc\u5ee3\u6cdb\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u672c\u6587\u7684\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0d\u9019\u500b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u4f5c\u51fa\u5168\u9762\u7684\u8003\u5bdf\u3002 \u3000\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u672c\u6587\u6703\u5c08\u6ce8\u65bc\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u6587\u5316\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u5c0d\u9078\u8209\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\uff0c\u5baa\u653f\u4e0a\u7684\u5b89\u6392\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u7e3d\u7d71\u548c\u8b70\u6703\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff09\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u500b\u5177\u6709\u53c3\u8207\u6027\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u9ee8\u6d3e\u61c9\u8a72\u91c7\u53d6\u4f55\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\u4fc3\u9032\u548c\u4fdd\u6301\u793e\u6703\u7a4f\u5b9a\u3002\u4e00\u8a00\u4ee5\u853d\u4e4b\uff0c\u5373\u5f71\u97ff\u5168\u7403\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u5efa\u8a2d\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u904e\u7a0b\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><strong>\u6c11\u4e3b\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8208\u8d77\uff1f<\/strong><\/div><div><strong>\u8ca7\u7aae\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u6cbb<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u5728\u8a0e\u8ad6\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u5148\u8981\u8868\u660e\u6211\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u548c\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u6211\u540c\u610f\u7f8e\u570b\u958b\u570b\u5143\u9996\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u5373\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u500b\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u6216\u570b\u5bb6\u4ee4\u4eba\u611f\u5230\u6050\u61fc\uff08\u6216\u5f15\u7528\u6cd5\u5f8b\u754c\u7684\u672e\u8a9e\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u611f\u5230\u61f7\u7591\uff09\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5247\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u627e\u51fa\u65b9\u6cd5\u53bb\u5236\u8861\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u5728\u73fe\u4ee3\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5df2\u7d93\u8b49\u660e\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u5728\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u570b\u5bb6\u5c24\u5176\u5fc5\u8981\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u53eb&#8220;\u5eab\u5179\u6d85\u8328\u66f2\u7dda&#8221;\uff08Kuznets curve\uff09(Kuznets 1955; 1963; 1976)\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5b83\u5099\u53d7\u722d\u8b70\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u4e86\u7576\u4e00\u500b\u6b20\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u958b\u59cb\u767c\u5c55\u548c\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u6642\uff0c\u5176\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u72c0\u6cc1\u6703\u6709\u60e1\u5316\u60c5\u6cc1\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u4f46\u7576\u5176\u5de5\u696d\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8b8a\u9ad8\u6642\uff0c\u570b\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u6703\u6f38\u8da8\u5e73\u8861(Olson 1963; Weede and Tiefenbach 1981; Todaro 1981: 134; Bollen and Jackman 1985b; Muller 1988; Chan 1989; Weede 1993)\u3002 \u3000\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u8d70\u4e0a\u767c\u5c55\u4e4b\u8def\u524d\uff0c\u793e\u6703\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u6536\u5165\u7d50\u69cb\u985e\u4f3c\u4e00\u500b\u72f9\u9577\u7684\u91d1\u5b57\u5854\uff0c\u5373\u5e95\u5c64\u6700\u9f90\u5927\uff0c\u5230\u4e86\u4e2d\u90e8\u548c\u9802\u90e8\u6642\u5247\u9010\u6f38\u8b8a\u72f9\u7a84(Lipset 1981: 51)\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u570b\u5bb6\u662f\u6240\u6709\u516c\u6c11\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\uff0c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u6b0a\u529b\uff0c\u548c\u8eab\u4efd\u4f86\u6e90\u3002\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u5728\u4e2d\u592e\u96c6\u6b0a\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\u986f\u5f97\u5c24\u70ba\u7a81\u51fa\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7cfb\u4e2d\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u6216\u653f\u6b0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u63a5\u53d7\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u7af6\u722d\u6027\u7684\u9078\u8209\u7d50\u679c\u5f9e\u800c\u8b93\u51fa\u5176\u6b0a\u529b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u5011\u771f\u7684\u9019\u6a23\u505a\uff0c\u90a3\u7d55\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5408\u7406\u6216\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u6289\u64c7\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u65b0\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u6b20\u7f3a\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u548c\u4e0d\u592a\u5177\u6709\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u91cc\u3002<\/div><div>\u99ac\u514b\u601d\uff08Marx\uff09\u66fe\u6307\u51fa\u6975\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u662f\u7de3\u65bc\u8ca7\u4e4f\uff08scarcity\uff09\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4ed6\u76f8\u4fe1\u4f5c\u70ba\u5e73\u7b49\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u5f31\u5c0f\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u8c50\u539a\u7684\u7269\u8cea\u689d\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5b55\u80b2\u548c\u7522\u751f(Marx 1958: 8-9)\u3002\u6309\u7167\u99ac\u514b\u601d\u7684\u9019\u500b\u908f\u8f2f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u5f37\u884c\u5728\u7269\u8cea\u8ca7\u4e4f\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u4e0b\u8ffd\u6c42\u548c\u5be6\u73fe\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u53ea\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u5404\u7a2e\u793e\u6703\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u6539\u9769\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u5931\u6557\u548c\u88ab\u6291\u5236\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4fe1\u5f92\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\u4e5f\u8b49\u660e\u4e86\u99ac\u514b\u601d\u89c0\u9ede\u7684\u6b63\u78ba\u3002\u5df4\u897f\u4e00\u4f4d\u7814\u7a76\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5b78\u8005Weffort (1992)\u4ee4\u4eba\u4fe1\u670d\u5730\u6307\u51fa&#8220;\u5118\u7ba1\u516c\u6c11\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5e73\u7b49\u6b0a\u5229\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b58\u5728\uff0c&#8221;\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u4e0d\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u53cd\u5dee\u4e0b&#8220;\u53ea\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u793e\u6703\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u626d\u66f2\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e0d\u7a4f\u5b9a\uff0c\u548c\u9577\u671f\u7684\u66b4\u529b\u885d\u7a81. . .\u5f8c\u679c\u662f\u7121\u6cd5\u978f\u56fa\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff12\uff12\uff09\u3002\u7576\u4ee3\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u793e\u6703\u5b78\u5bb6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u7269\u8cea\u57fa\u790e\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u6c34\u5e73\u5f80\u5f80\u8207\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u76f8\u8f14\u76f8\u6210(Lipset, Seong, and Torres 1993: 156-58; Diamond 1992 a)\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u7d93\u6fdf\u6c34\u5e73\u548c\u570b\u529b\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u5916\uff0c\u7576\u4ee3\u7684\u793e\u6703\u5b78\u5bb6\u4e5f\u8a8d\u540c\u6258\u514b\u7dad\u723e\uff08Tocqueville\uff09\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u5373\u64c1\u7528\u793e\u6703\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u8868\u73fe\u70ba\u5c0d\u5176\u516c\u6c11\u7684\u500b\u4eba\u8eab\u4efd\u548c\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u5176\u51fa\u8eab\u548c\u8ca1\u5bcc\uff0c\u7684\u666e\u904d\u5c0a\u91cd\uff0c\u66f4\u6613\u7522\u751f\u548c\u767c\u5c55\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236(Tocqueville 1976: vol. 2, 162-216; Lipset 1981: 439-50; Dahl 1971: 85-104; Sartori 1987: 343-345; Dogan 1988: 11-12)\u3002\u4f46\u4e5f\u6b63\u5982Weffort (1992)\u540c\u6642\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c&#8220;\u5f88\u591a\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e26\u6ca1\u6709\u9019\u7a2e\u6700\u4f4e\u7684\u793e\u6703\u689d\u4ef6\u524d\u63d0. . .\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f9e\u4e2d\u89e3\u91cb\u70ba\u4f55\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u5927\u591a\u90fd\u6b20\u7f3a\u793e\u6703\u7a4f\u5b9a&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff11\uff18\uff09\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><strong>\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u653f\u9ad4<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u5728\uff11\uff19\u4e16\u7d00\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u653f\u6cbb\u7406\u8ad6\u5bb6\u5df2\u7d93\u95dc\u6ce8\u5230\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u806f\u7e6b(Lipset 1992: 2)\u3002\u6b63\u5982Glassman (1991)\u6240\u8a00&#8220;\u99ac\u514b\u601d\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\uff0c\u53e4\u5178\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u64c1\u8b77\u541b\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\u90fd\u8a8d\u540c\u5de5\u696d\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u8b70\u6703\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff16\uff15\uff09\u3002\u5728\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u7a2e\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0b\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u51fa\u73fe\u4e00\u6279\u6578\u91cf\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u8fb2\u696d\u52de\u52d5\u8005\u5916\uff0c\u9084\u7522\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u4e2d\u7522\u968e\u5c64\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u968e\u5c64\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e73\u8861\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u548c\u63d0\u4f9b\u5fc5\u8981\u8cc7\u6e90\u63f4\u52a9\u5f31\u52e2\u7fa4\u9ad4\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\uff12\uff10\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u5b78\u8005\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Weber (1906: 346), Schumpeter (1950), Moore (1966), Skocpol (1979), \u548c Berger (1986; 1992)\uff0c\u4e5f\u66fe\u5c0d\u6b64\u89c0\u9ede\u4f5c\u4e86\u8a73\u7d30\u7684\u5206\u6790\u548c\u7e3d\u7d50\u3002Schumpeter (1950)\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c&#8220;\u73fe\u4ee3\u6c11\u4e3b\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u7522\u7269&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff12\uff19\uff17\uff09\u3002Moore (1966)\u5247\u8a8d\u540c\u99ac\u514b\u601d\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u4ed6\u78ba\u4fe1&#8220;\u6ca1\u6709\u8cc7\u7522\u968e\u7d1a\u5247\u6ca1\u6709\u6c11\u4e3b&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff12\uff14\uff18\uff09\u3002<\/div><div>Berger (1992) \u5f9e\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u89c0\u5bdf&#8220;\u5118\u7ba1\u653f\u6cbb\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5fc5\u7136\u4e5f\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u4f8b\u5b50\u8b49\u660e\u6ca1\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u4e5f\u540c\u6642\u5be6\u884c\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff19\uff09\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u610f\u6627\u7740\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7d93\u6fdf\u662f\u7522\u751f\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5fc5\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u56e0\u7d20(Diamond 1993a)\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b78\u8005\u66fe\u5c0d\u6b64\u4f5c\u904e\u8abf\u67e5(Diamond, Linz, and Lipset 1988: xxi)\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u767c\u73fe&#8220;\u90a3\u4e9b\u80fd\u591f\u9032\u6b65\u5230\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u9664\u4e86\u767c\u5c55\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u5f0f\u5916\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u64f4\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e2d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u6c7a\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u4fdd\u8b77\u4f01\u696d\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u7368\u7acb\u6027\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u5011\u90fd\u6216\u591a\u6216\u5c11\u5730\u53d7\u5230\u4f86\u81ea\u5404\u65b9\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u53bb\u5be6\u884c\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002&#8221;<\/div><div>\u5728\u63a2\u7d22\u70ba\u4f55\u67d0\u4e9b\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\uff0c\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u6b62\u4ecd\u672a\u80fd\u5168\u9762\u5be6\u73fe\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u5b78\u8005Waisman (1992: 140-55)\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u79c1\u6709\u6210\u4efd\u7684\u751f\u7522\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ecd\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a8\u52d5\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002\u4ed6\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u5065\u5168\u548c\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u524d\u63d0\u3002\u7576\u570b\u5bb6\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\u53bb\u9650\u5236\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u81ea\u7531\u8cbf\u6613\u6642\uff0c\u90a3\u5c07\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u7368\u88c1\uff08\u56e0\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u81ea\u7d66\u81ea\u8db3\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ea\u6703\u627c\u6bba\u7af6\u722d\uff09\u548c\u7522\u751f\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u9700\u8981\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002<\/div><div>\u5118\u7ba1\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u548c\u4e2d\u7522\u968e\u7d1a\u7684\u58ef\u5927\u80fd\u8d77\u5230\u5236\u8861\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u548c\u78ba\u4fdd\u4eba\u6b0a\u548c\u6cd5\u6cbb\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7d42\u537b\u662f\u52de\u5de5\u968e\u7d1a\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u897f\u65b9\uff09\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u5411\u653f\u9ee8\u8981\u6c42\u64f4\u5927\u516c\u6c11\u6295\u7968\u6b0a\u5229\u7684\u89d2\u8272(Therborn 1977; Rueschemeyer, Stephens, and Stephens 1992: 59, 97-98, 140-43)\u3002\u6b63\u5982John Stephens (1993)\u6307\u51fa\uff0c&#8220;\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u662f\u8207\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u8208\u8d77\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u95dc\uff0c\u90e8\u4efd\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u65bc\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u80fd\u6539\u8b8a\u6574\u500b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u968e\u7d1a\u7d50\u69cb\u4e26\u52a0\u5f37\u52de\u5de5\u968e\u7d1a&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff14\uff13\uff18\uff09\u3002<\/div><div>\u8150\u6557\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u653f\u5e9c\u7ba1\u6cbb\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u8207\u8ca7\u7aae\u76f8\u8f14\u76f8\u751f(Klitgaard 1991: 86-98)\u3002\u570b\u5bb6\u64cd\u63a7\u4e00\u4e9b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5408\u540c\u548c\u8cc7\u672c\uff0c\u4e26\u626e\u6f14\u7740\u5206\u914d\u9019\u4e9b\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u5728\u570b\u5bb6\u8655\u65bc\u8ca7\u7aae\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b83\u5fc5\u7136\u8981\u5f37\u8abf\u96c6\u6b0a\u6216\u500b\u4eba\u5c08\u653f\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u8981\u6e05\u9664\u88d9\u5e36\u95dc\u4fc2\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u5c0d\u91cd\u8981\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u7684\u58df\u65b7\u5e7e\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u6a23\uff0c\u6709\u91dd\u5c0d\u6027\u5730\u5236\u5b9a\u6cd5\u898f\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u4f86\u6e1b\u5c11\u88d9\u5e36\u95dc\u4fc2\u548c\u6e1b\u5c11\u4eba\u6cbb\u8272\u5f69\u5247\u986f\u5f97\u5fc5\u4e0d\u53ef\u5c11\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u7684\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u5176\u6b77\u53f2\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7528\u4e86\u6f2b\u9577\u7684\u6642\u9593\u624d\u53d6\u5f97\u9019\u500b\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u73fe\u6642\u4e00\u4e9b\u6b20\u767c\u9054\u570b\u5bb6\u8981\u9054\u81f3\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u5730\u6b65\u5247\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u96e3\u4e0a\u52a0\u96e3\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u500b\u53bb\u9664\u4eba\u6cbb\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u5f80\u5f80\u8207\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u548c\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u76f8\u9055\u80cc\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6b63\u5982Jefferson, Madison\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5b78\u8005\u5728\uff11\uff18\u4e16\u7d00\u672b\u5df2\u7d93\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u570b\u5bb6\u5e72\u9810\u8d8a\u5c11\uff0c\u5176\u5c0d\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u7684\u64cd\u63a7\u8d8a\u5c11\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u81ea\u7531\u653f\u9ad4\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8d8a\u5927\u3002<\/div><div>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u7af6\u722d\u6027\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u5f9e\u793e\u6703\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u89d2\u5ea6\u4f86\u6d88\u9664\u88d9\u5e36\u95dc\u4fc2\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u653f\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u901a\u904e\u5176\u7279\u6b0a\u53bb\u53d6\u5f97\u570b\u5bb6\u6b0a\u529b\u548c\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u8d8a\u5c0f\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u9650\u5236\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u5916\uff0c\u9053\u5fb7\u64cd\u5b88\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u4e5f\u61c9\u5728\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u548c\u76f8\u5c0d\u8ca7\u7aae\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6b0a\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u52a0\u5f37\u3002\u5728\u570b\u5bb6\u7bc4\u570d\u4ee5\u5916\u5206\u914d\u8ca1\u7522\uff0c\u501f\u8cb8\uff0c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u8cc7\u6e90\u6642\u5176\u9069\u7576\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u6e96\u5247\u5fc5\u9808\u660e\u78ba\u7121\u8aa4\u5730\u57f7\u884c\u3002\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u5730\uff0c\u8981\u9054\u81f4\u9019\u500b\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4ee5\u80fd\u8005\u5c45\u4e4b\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u4f86\u9078\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u6548\u7387\u7684\u516c\u52d9\u54e1\u5718\u9ad4\u4f86\u5354\u52a9\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u82f1\u7f8e\u548c\u6b50\u6d32\u591a\u570b\u516c\u52d9\u54e1\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u548c\u6210\u719f\u9700\u8981\u6b77\u7d93\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6642\u9593(Johnston 1991: 53-56)\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u986f\u793a\u4f8b\u5982\u97d3\u570b\u66fe\u7d93\u5728\u76f8\u5c0d\u7684\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u5167\u5f9e\u4e00\u500b\u8ca7\u7aae\u570b\u5bb6\u5efa\u6210\u70ba\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u9ad4\uff0c\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u8981\u5728\u7576\u4eca\u773e\u591a\u7684\u8ca7\u7aae\u570b\u5bb6\u91cc\u6539\u8b8a\u5176\u6839\u6df1\u67e2\u56fa\u7684\u601d\u7dad\uff0c\u4fe1\u4ef0\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u4e26\u975e\u4e00\u671d\u4e00\u5915\u7684\u6613\u4e8b(Seung-Soo 1992; Macdonald 1992)\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><strong>\u653f\u6cbb\u6587\u5316\u7684\u5167\u6838<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u7522\u751f\u548c\u5efa\u8a2d\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u500b\u5c0d\u6b64\u64c1\u6709\u5ee3\u6cdb\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c1b\u570d\uff0c\u5373\u5168\u9ad4\u516c\u6c11\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u5c0d\u8a00\u8ad6\uff0c\u50b3\u5a92\uff0c\u96c6\u6703\uff0c\u5b97\u6559\u81ea\u7531\uff0c\u7d44\u5efa\u53cd\u5c0d\u9ee8\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u6cd5\u6cbb\uff0c\u4eba\u6b0a\u548c\u8af8\u5982\u6b64\u985e\u7684\u666e\u4e16\u50f9\u503c\u539f\u5247\u7684\u63a5\u53d7(Almond 1956: 34-42; Pye 1965: 3-26; Dahl 1971: l-16; Bobbio 1987: 63-78; Diamond, Linz, and Lipset, 1990: 16-18)\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e26\u975e\u4e00\u671d\u4e00\u5915\u5c31\u80fd\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u5f9e\uff11\uff17\uff18\uff19\u5e74\u7684\u6cd5\u570b\u5927\u9769\u547d\u5230\uff11\uff19\uff11\uff17\u5e74\u7684\u4fc4\u570b\u4e8c\u6708\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u5f9e\uff11\uff19\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u5f8c\u7684\u4e9e\u975e\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u5617\u8a66\u5f9e\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u904e\u6e21\u5230\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u591a\u756a\u52aa\u529b\u90fd\u5ba3\u544a\u5931\u6557\u3002Linz (1988) \u548c\u4ea8\u5ef7\u9813\uff08Huntington \uff0c1991\uff09\u66fe\u7d93\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u5169\u6b21\u4eba\u985e\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6d6a\u6f6e\u90fd\u4e0d\u7d04\u800c\u540c\u5730\u88ab\u7dca\u63a5\u7740\u7684\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5fa9\u8208\u6240\u63a8\u7ffb\u3002&#8220;\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff11\uff15\u5e74\u81f3\uff11\uff19\uff13\uff11\u5e74\u9593\u91c7\u7d0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\uff11\uff17\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e2d\u53ea\u6709\u5176\u4e2d\uff14\u500b\u80fd\u5728\u4e8c\u5341\u81f3\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u4fdd\u6301\u6c11\u4e3b&#8230;\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff15\uff18\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u7576\u6642\uff13\uff12\u500b\u5be6\u884c\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u91cc\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u4e09\u4efd\u4e4b\u4e00\u5728\u4e03\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u6642\u5df2\u7d93\u9000\u6b65\u6210\u70ba\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9&#8221;(Huntington 1991: 17-21)\u3002<\/div><div>\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5e78\u5730\u767c\u751f\u5728\u73fe\u6642\u7684\u6771\u6b50\u524d\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u548c\u975e\u6d32\u3002\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u4f86\u81ea\u81ea\u7531\u4e4b\u5bb6\uff08Freedom House\uff09\u7684\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff1a&#8220;\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff13\u5e74\u884c\u5c07\u7d50\u675f\u4e4b\u6642\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u51fa\u73fe\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u800c\u66b4\u529b\uff0c\u93ae\u58d3\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u64cd\u63a7\u5247\u5448\u4e0a\u5347\u8d8b\u52e2\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u73fe\u8c61\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u662f\uff15\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u9996\u6b21&#8230;&#8221;(Karatnycky 1994: 4)\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u7a2e&#8220;\u53cd\u5411\u6d6a\u6f6e&#8221;\uff08reverse wave\uff09\u7684\u7522\u751f\u6700\u660e\u986f\u5730\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u6492\u54c8\u62c9\u4ee5\u5357\u7684\u975e\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u7576\u5730&#8220;\u53ea\u6709\uff19\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u60c5\u6cc1\u6709\u597d\u8f49\uff0c\u800c\uff11\uff18\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u5247\u51fa\u73fe\u5012\u9000&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff16\uff09\u3002\u5728\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u7740\u6cd5\u897f\u65af\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u7adf\u7136\u9818\u5148\u5176\u4ed6\u9ee8\u6d3e\u3002\u8a72\u653f\u9ee8\u96d6\u7136\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff13\u5e74\uff11\uff12\u6708\u7684\u5927\u9078\u4e2d\u53ea\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u767e\u4efd\u4e4b\u4e8c\u5341\u56db\u7684\u9078\u7968\uff0c\u4f46\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u548c\u5b83\u7684\u76df\u53cb\u53ea\u62ff\u5230\u50c5\u8d85\u904e\u767e\u4efd\u4e4b\u5341\u4e94\u7684\u9078\u7968\u3002<\/div><div>\u5118\u7ba1\u5728\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5168\u7403\u6bcf\u500b\u5730\u65b9\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u90fd\u958b\u59cb\u840c\u82bd\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u500b\u904e\u7a0b\u90fd\u662f\u6b65\u5c65\u7dad\u8271\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4e2d\u57f7\u653f\u9ee8\u7684\u53cd\u5c0d\u52e2\u529b\u548c\u5c0d\u500b\u4eba\u6b0a\u5229\u7684\u4fdd\u969c\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u4e92\u76f8\u8b93\u6b65\u548c\u59a5\u5354\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e2d\u8271\u96e3\u5730\u6d6e\u73fe(Sklar 1987: 714)\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u548c\u6211\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u5b78\u751fMartin Trow \u548cJames Coleman\u5728\u5927\u7d04\uff14\uff10\u5e74\u524d\u6642\u5beb\u9053\uff1a<\/div><div>\u5168\u7403\u722d\u53d6\u6c11\u4e3b\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\u5927\u591a\u662f\u901a\u904e\u5404\u500b\u793e\u6703\uff0c\u5b97\u6559\uff0c\u5730\u5340\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u968e\u5c64\u548c\u5c08\u696d\u5718\u9ad4\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u4e92\u76f8\u722d\u9b25\u548c\u4ed6\u5011\u8207\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6297\u8861\u4f86\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u653f\u6cbb\u5718\u9ad4\u90fd\u5e0c\u671b\u9054\u6210\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u610f\u9858\uff0c\u4f46\u5047\u8a2d\u5176\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u5718\u9ad4\u80fd\u5f37\u5927\u5230\u8d0f\u5f97\u7d55\u5c0d\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u4f86\u57f7\u653f\uff0c\u5176\u7d50\u679c\u5bec\u5bb9\u7684\u7522\u751f\u3002\u5927\u9ad4\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5bec\u5bb9\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u7522\u751f\u548c\u5c0d\u5404\u500b\u6301\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u898b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5718\u9ad4\u7684\u7af6\u9078\u6b0a\u5229\u7684\u8a8d\u53ef\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u4f86\u6e90\u65bc\u5404\u500b\u793e\u6703\u91cc\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5f37\u5927\u548c\u4e0d\u53ef\u4fb5\u72af\u7684\u5718\u9ad4\u9593\u7684\u4e92\u76f8\u5236\u8861\u548c\u8f03\u91cf\u3002\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5e7e\u500b\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4ee4\u5230\u5bec\u5bb9\u6210\u70ba\u793e\u6703\u91cc\u7684\u4e00\u9805\u5ee3\u70ba\u8a8d\u53ef\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\uff1a\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u5718\u9ad4\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u548c\u65b0\u6559\u6559\u6703\uff0c\u66fe\u7d93\u5617\u8a66\u6467\u6bc1\u53cd\u5c0d\u8072\u97f3\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5011\u6700\u7d42\u8a8d\u8b58\u5230\u7531\u4e00\u500b\u5718\u9ad4\u4f86\u64cd\u63a7\u7d55\u5c0d\u7684\u52dd\u5229\u679c\u5be6\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u771f\u7684\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u56e0\u6b64\u5c0e\u81f4\u793e\u6703\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5206\u5d29\u96e2\u6790\u3002\u5728\u8af8\u5982\u6b64\u985e\u7684\u4e92\u76f8\u5236\u8861\u4e0b\uff0c\u5f31\u52e2\u793e\u7fa4\u548c\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u7cfb\u767c\u5c55\u51fa\u4e00\u7a2e\u6c11\u4e3b\u610f\u8b58\uff08a democratic ideology\uff09\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u6c11\u4e3b\u610f\u8b58\u80fd\u8d77\u5230\u5805\u6c7a\u7dad\u8b77\u5f31\u52e2\u793e\u7fa4\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\u4e26\u7c4d\u6b64\u5f37\u8abf\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u5f9e\u800c\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u7fa4\u9ad4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6311\u6230\u7576\u6b0a\u6d3e\u548c\u8981\u6c42\u7576\u6b0a\u6d3e\u627f\u8a8d\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u9019\u4e9b\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u9632\u7bc4\u9769\u547d\u66b4\u52d5\u548c\u7576\u6b0a\u6d3e\u5c0d\u6b0a\u529b\u7684\u58df\u65b7\u3002\u5c0d\u4e8e\u9019\u4e9b\u7fa4\u9ad4\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5931\u53bb\u5c0d\u81ea\u8eab\u6b0a\u5229\u7684\u5805\u6301\u548c\u7dad\u8b77\u5373\u610f\u6627\u7740\u5931\u53bb\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u4e9b\u652f\u6301\u8005\u540c\u6642\u90fd\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u5b88\u8b77\u8005(Lipset, Trow, and Coleman 1956: 15-16)\u3002<\/div><div>\u7531\u6b64\u7522\u751f\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u5f97\u4ee5\u5faa\u5e8f\u6f38\u9032\u5730\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u8ca1\u5bcc\u7d1a\u5225\u548c\u6559\u80b2\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u6295\u7968\u6b0a\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u5f9e\u6b64\u9010\u6f38\u5730\u8a8d\u540c\u6c11\u773e\u7684\u53c3\u653f\u6b0a\u4e26\u5bb9\u5fcd\u548c\u5efa\u7acb\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u8207\u4ed6\u5011\u7af6\u722d\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\u548c\u5236\u5ea6(Almond and Verba 1963: 7-8; Rustow 1970: 357)\u3002Dahl (1971: 36-37)\u66fe\u7d93\u5f37\u8abf\u904e\uff0c\u5728\uff11\uff19\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u6b50\u6d32\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u653f\u9ee8\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u81ea\u7531\u9ee8\u548c\u4fdd\u5b88\u9ee8\uff0c\u5176\u5efa\u9ee8\u7684\u52d5\u6a5f\u4e26\u4e0d\u5728\u65bc\u8981\u53bb\u8d0f\u5f97\u591a\u6578\u9078\u6c11\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u65bc\u4fdd\u969c\u81ea\u8eab\u5728\u8b70\u6703\u4e2d\u7684\u591a\u6578\u6d3e\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u653f\u9ee8\u53cd\u800c\u4e0d\u6703\u71b1\u8877\u65bc\u717d\u52d5\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u72c2\u71b1\u3002<\/div><div>\u6bd4\u8f03\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u6b0a\u529b\uff0c\u5730\u4f4d\u548c\u8ca1\u5bcc\u904e\u591a\u5730\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u7576\u6b0a\u8005\u624b\u4e2d\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u5c31\u6703\u96e3\u65bc\u4e0a\u9752\u5929\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5404\u65b9\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u9b25\u722d\u53ea\u6703\u8457\u91cd\u65bc\u96f6\u548c\u535a\u5f08\uff08a zero-sum game\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u53ea\u80fd\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u52dd\u5229\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u5931\u6557\u8005\u5247\u4e00\u7121\u6240\u6709\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u904e\u5927\uff0c\u4f54\u6709\u7684\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u5229\u76ca\u904e\u591a\uff0c\u5176\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u7cfb\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u6b0a\u529b\u5236\u8861\u8005\u5247\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u610f\u9858\u53bb\u63a5\u53d7\u6574\u500b\u653f\u6cbb\u7af6\u722d\u898f\u5247\u4f86\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u6b0a\u529b\u67b6\u69cb\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5c0e\u81f4\u653f\u6b0a\u8b8a\u52d5\u983b\u7e41\u548c\u793e\u6703\u4e0d\u7a4f\u5b9a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u9019\u6a23\u8aaa\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u80fd\u591f\u7522\u751f\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u897f\u65b9\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u65bc\u7576\u5730\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5169\u8005\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u7cfe\u7e8f\u662f\u6709\u9650\u7684\uff0c\u653f\u7d93\u5728\u5927\u9ad4\u4e0a\u662f\u5206\u96e2\u7684\u3002\u5728\u5317\u6b50\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u80fd\u591f\u4ee4\u5230\u738b\u5ba4\u548c\u8cb4\u65cf\u4fdd\u7559\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u548c\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u88ab\u524a\u6e1b\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u9577\u9054\u534a\u500b\u591a\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7279\u6b0a\u7684\u4f54\u6709\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7576\u6b0a\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u76f8\u5c0d\u5bb9\u6613\u5730\u8b93\u51fa\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u3002<\/div><div>\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u5728\u5168\u7403\u4efb\u4f55\u5730\u65b9\u5f9e\u4f86\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u6709\u8a08\u5283\u5730\u9032\u884c\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u5728\u4e8c\u6230\u5f8c\u7684\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u65e5\u672c\uff0c\u7576\u5730\u5728\u6230\u6557\u5f8c\u7531\u6230\u52dd\u570b\u4e3b\u5c0e\u5176\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u3002\u4f46\u5f9e\u7f8e\u570b\u5230\u5317\u6b50\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\uff0c\u6295\u7968\u6b0a\u548c\u6cd5\u6cbb\u7b49\u7b49\u90fd\u662f\u4ee5\u6f38\u9032\u800c\u975e\u6709\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f86\u5efa\u7acb\u3002\u70ba\u4e86\u4ee4\u5230\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\u5408\u6cd5\u5316\uff0c\u653f\u9ee8\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5b83\u5011\u4e0d\u60c5\u9858\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u6700\u7d42\u8a8d\u8b58\u5230\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u7cfb\u5b58\u5728\u548c\u53c3\u8207\u7af6\u722d\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\u3002\u66fe\u5e7e\u4f55\u6642\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u65b0\u751f\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u9818\u8896\uff0c\u5f9e\u7d04\u7ff0&#183;\u4e9e\u7576\u65af\uff08John Adams\uff09\u548c\u6258\u9a6c\u65af&#183;\u6770\u6590\u900a\uff08Thomas Jefferson\uff09\u5230\u82f1\u8fea\u62c9&#183;\u7518\u5730\uff08Indira Gandhi\uff09\uff0c\u90fd\u5617\u8a66\u93ae\u58d3\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u53cd\u5c0d\u8005\u3002\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u591a\u6578\u7684\u65b0\u751f\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u90fd\u662f\u88ab\u63a8\u7ffb\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff11\uff18\uff17\uff11\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6cd5\u570b\uff0c\uff11\uff18\uff14\uff18\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u6b50\u6d32\u591a\u570b\uff0c\u4e00\u6230\u5f8c\u7684\u6771\u6b50\uff0c\u4e2d\u6b50\u548c\u5357\u6b50\uff0c\u548c\u5c0d\u6b64\u53f8\u7a7a\u898b\u6163\u7684\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u548c\u975e\u6d32\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6709\u8cf4\u65bc\u5c11\u6578\u6d3e\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u4ed6\u5011\u8207\u591a\u6578\u6d3e\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5354\u8abf\uff0c\u800c\u591a\u65bc\u7576\u6b0a\u8005\u5c0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u627f\u8afe\u3002<\/div><div>\u8de8\u6c11\u65cf\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u56e0\u7d20\u5f80\u5f80\u6bd4\u7d93\u6fdf\u56e0\u7d20\u5c0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u4f86\u5f97\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\uff08Lipset et al. 1993: 168-70; Huntington 1991: 298-311\uff09\u3002Dahl (1970: 6), Kennan (1977: 41-43), \u548c Lewis (1993: 93-94)\u4e5f\u5f37\u8abf\u5728\uff11\uff19\u4e16\u7d00\u5168\u7403\u7b2c\u4e00\u6279\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u91cc\uff08\u5927\u7d04\u6709\u8d85\u904e\uff12\uff10\u500b\uff09\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u897f\u6b50\uff0c\u5317\u6b50\u570b\u5bb6\u6216\u7531\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u539f\u5c45\u6c11\u5b9a\u5c45\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u3002&#8220;\u9084\u6ca1\u6709\u8b49\u64da\u986f\u793a\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u65cf\u7fa4\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u9019\u7a2e\u6cbb\u570b\u65b9\u5f0f&#8221;(Kennan 1977: 41-43)\u3002 \u3000\u4f5c\u70ba\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6771\u5730\u5340\u7684\u6b0a\u5a01Lewis (1993)\u8a8d\u540c\u4ee5\u4e0aKennan\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff1a&#8220;\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u9084\u6ca1\u6709\u7522\u751f\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u4efb\u4f55\u6587\u5316\u50b3\u7d71\u91cc\uff1b\u800c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u79fb\u690d\u548c\u80fd\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u6587\u5316\u7cfb\u7d71\u91cc\u751f\u5b58\u5247\u6709\u5f85\u89c0\u5bdf&#8221;(\u9801 93-94)\u3002<\/div><div>\u5c24\u5176\u7279\u5225\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u66fe\u7d93\u662f\u82f1\u570b\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\u662f\u6700\u5177\u6c11\u4e3b\u5143\u7d20\u548c\u6700\u6709\u6c11\u4e3b\u6f5b\u8cea\u7684(Lipset et al. 1993: 168)\u3002\u6b63\u5982Weiner (1987)\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\uff11\uff19\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u7f8e\u6d32\u548c\u6fb3\u6d32\u5916\uff0c&#8220;\u5728\u6240\u6709\u7e3d\u4eba\u53e3\u5c11\u65bc\u4e00\u767e\u842c\uff08\u5373\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5168\u7403\u6240\u6709\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u570b\u5bb6\uff09\u548c\u66fe\u7d93\u6709\u7740\u88ab\u6b96\u6c11\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u80fd\u5ef6\u7e8c\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u90fd\u7121\u4e00\u4f8b\u5916\u662f\u524d\u82f1\u570b\u6b96\u6c11\u5730&#8221;(\u9801\uff12\uff10) \u3002\u9019\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u8010\u4eba\u5c0b\u5473(Smith 1978)\u3002\u5728\u82f1\u5f0f\u548c\u975e\u82f1\u5f0f\u7684\u7d71\u6cbb\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e2d\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u524d\u82f1\u570b\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u9769\u547d\u524d\u7684\u5317\u7f8e\u6d32\uff0c\u8fd1\u4ee3\u7684\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u5c3c\u65e5\u5229\u4e9e\uff0c\u90fd\u80fd\u5728\u4ed6\u5011\u53d6\u7368\u7acb\u524d\u5efa\u7acb\u9078\u8209\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u653f\u9ee8\u548c\u6cd5\u6cbb\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5728\u897f\u73ed\u7259\uff0c\u8461\u8404\u7259\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\uff0c\u8377\u862d\u548c\u6bd4\u5229\u6642\u7684\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u524d\u8607\u806f\u7684\u885b\u661f\u570b\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u4e26\u6ca1\u6709\u5bb9\u8a31\u5176\u4ed6\u7570\u898b\u9ee8\u6d3e\u52a0\u5165\u4e3b\u6d41\u653f\u9ad4\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5728\u524d\u82f1\u570b\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\u6bd4\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u4f86\u5f97\u66f4\u6210\u529f\u548c\u5be6\u884c\u5f97\u66f4\u5faa\u5e8f\u6f38\u9032\uff1b\u5176\u7368\u7acb\u524d\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u9019\u6bb5\u6b77\u53f2\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u5730\u5340\u8d77\u5230\u4fc3\u9032\u793e\u6703\u5316\uff08socialization\uff09\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u5e6b\u52a9\u5b83\u5011\u6e1b\u8f15\u5728\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u81ea\u7531\u8f49\u578b\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7522\u751f\u7684\u9663\u75db\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><strong>\u5b97\u6559\u50b3\u7d71<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u5b97\u6559\u50b3\u7d71\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u80fd\u5426\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f49\u578b\u7684\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u7d20(Huntington 1993: 25-29)\u3002\u5f9e\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7f85\u99ac\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\uff0c\u6771\u6b63\u6559\uff0c\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u6559\u548c\u5112\u6559\u90fd\u8207\u6c11\u4e3b\u6709\u7740\u8ca0\u9762\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff1b\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u65b0\u6559\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5247\u662f\u76f8\u8f14\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u5dee\u7570\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f9e\u4ee5\u4e0b\u65b9\u9762\u4f5c\u51fa\u89e3\u91cb\uff1a(1)\u3000\u65b0\u6559\u66f4\u5f37\u8abf\u500b\u4eba\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u5be6\u73fe\uff1b (2) \u50b3\u7d71\u4e0a\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u5b97\u6559\u8207\u4e16\u4fd7\u653f\u6b0a\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u66f4\u6df1\u548c\u8907\u96dc\u3002\u6258\u514b\u7dad\u723e\uff08Tocqueville \uff0c1975\uff09 \u548c Bryce (1901)\u66fe\u7d93\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u4fc3\u6210\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u653f\u6559\u7684\u5206\u96e2\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u4e16\u4fd7\u653f\u6b0a\u7121\u9808\u807d\u547d\u65bc\u6559\u6703\u7684\u5f8b\u4ee4\u4f86\u6cbb\u570b\u3002<\/div><div>\u5f9e\u6258\u514b\u7dad\u723e\uff08Tocqueville\uff09\u6642\u4ee3\u5230\u4e03\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u7684\u5b78\u8005\u66fe\u7559\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u5728\u6240\u6709\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u5b83\u5011\u7684\u6d77\u5916\u9818\u571f\u91cc\uff0c\u4fe1\u5949\u65b0\u6559\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u6bd4\u4fe1\u5949\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5efa\u7acb\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236(Lipset 1981: 57-58; Lipset 1970, 1988: 90; Bollen 1979: 83; Huntington 1991: 79-82)\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u5b78\u8005Pierre Trudeau (1960)\u5728\u4e94\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u671f\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u4f86\u90fd\u8207\u4e16\u4fd7\u653f\u6b0a\u95dc\u4fc2\u5bc6\u5207\uff0c\u5176\u6559\u6703\u58c1\u58d8\u5206\u660e\uff0c&#8220;\u662f\u4ee5\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4f5c\u70ba\u7cbe\u795e\u57fa\u790e\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u8655\u7406\u7cbe\u795e\u548c\u4e16\u4fd7\u4e8b\u52d9\u6642\u5176\u754c\u9650\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u975e\u5e38\u6a21\u7cca\u751a\u81f3\u6df7\u4e82\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u8868\u6c7a\u4e16\u4fd7\u4e8b\u52d9\u7684\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\u6642\u6839\u672c\u7121\u8996\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u610f\u898b&#8221; \uff08\u9801\uff12\uff14\uff15\uff09\u3002\u65b0\u6559\u5f92\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u90a3\u4e9b\u4f86\u81ea\u8207\u4e16\u4fd7\u653f\u6b0a\u7121\u95dc\u7684\u6d3e\u7cfb\uff0c\u90fd\u7f3a\u5c11\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8272\u5f69\uff0c\u90fd\u66f4\u5408\u7fa4\uff0c\u66f4\u5177\u5927\u773e\u53c3\u8207\u6027\u548c\u66f4\u5f37\u8abf\u500b\u4eba\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002\u4f46\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u4e03\u5341\u548c\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e3b\u5c0e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u6c11\u4e3b\u6d6a\u6f6e\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u53cd\u6620&#8220;\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u6559\u6703\u5728\u516d\u5341\u548c\u4e03\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u5728\u6559\u689d\uff0c\u6cd5\u7406\uff0c\u793e\u6703\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u4fe1\u4ef0\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u8b8a\u5316&#8221;(Huntington 1991: 281, 77-85)\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u8b8a\u5316\u4e3b\u8981\u4f86\u81ea\u4ee5\u4e0b\u591a\u500b\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a\u6975\u53f3\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u6559\u6703\u6cd5\u897f\u65af\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5728\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u9ad4\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u524a\u5f31\uff0c\u6b50\u6d32\u6cd5\u897f\u65af\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u5168\u9762\u6f70\u6557\uff0c\u548c\u5728\u4e8c\u6230\u5f8c\u5168\u7403\u591a\u500b\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u610f\u5927\u5229\uff0c\u897f\u73ed\u7259\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7684\u9b41\u5317\u514b\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u548c\u667a\u5229\u3002<\/div><div>\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u570b\u5bb6\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e16\u754c\uff09\u4e26\u672a\u53c3\u8207\u5168\u7403\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6d6a\u6f6e\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5168\u90e8\u90fd\u4fdd\u7559\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u5728\u4e0d\u4e45\u7684\u5c07\u4f86\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u80fd\u5426\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u5efa\u7acb\u4ecd\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u672a\u77e5\u4e4b\u6578\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba&#8220;\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e26\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u591a\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8207\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u4e16\u754c\u683c\u683c\u4e0d\u5165&#8221;(Vatikiotis 1988: 118)\u3002\u6b63\u5982Wright (1992)\u66fe\u7d93\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u6559&#8220;\u4e0d\u50c5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7cbe\u795e\u4e0a\u7684\u4fe1\u4ef0\u6307\u5c0e\uff0c\u4e5f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6cbb\u570b\u6559\u689d&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff11\uff13\uff11\uff09\u3002Gellner (1991)\u7559\u610f\u5230&#8220;\u73fe\u4ee3\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u793e\u6703\u7c21\u76f4\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u99ac\u514b\u601d\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7e2e\u5f71\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u88ab\u6559\u689d\u5305\u570d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u88ab\u904e\u591a\u7684\u6559\u689d\u6240\u6298\u78e8. . .&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff15\uff10\uff16\uff09\u3002Lewis (1993)\u5728\u5206\u6790\u904e\u53bb\u548c\u73fe\u5728\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u6559\u689d\u4e2d\u4fe1\u4ef0\u548c\u653f\u6b0a\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u6642\u5beb\u9053\uff1a<\/div><div>\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u570b\u5bb6\u5f9e\u6839\u672c\u800c\u8a00\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u795e\u6b0a\u653f\u6cbb\uff08theocracy\uff09\uff0c\u5b83\u4e26\u975e\u897f\u65b9\u610f\u7fa9\u4e0a\u7684\u7531\u6559\u6703\u548c\u50e7\u4fb6\u7d71\u6cbb\u7684\u4e16\u4fd7\u653f\u6b0a\uff0c. . .\u4f46\u537b\u662f\u5728\u66f4\u6839\u672c\u610f\u7fa9\u4e0a\u7531\u795e\u4f86\u7d71\u6cbb\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u3002. . .\u5176\u7406\u8ad6\u662f\uff1a\u570b\u5bb6\u662f\u795e\u7684\u5c6c\u5730\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u662f\u795e\u7684\u5b50\u6c11\uff0c\u6cd5\u5f8b\u662f\u795e\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u3002. . .\u56e0\u6b64\u6beb\u4e0d\u5947\u602a\uff0c. . . \u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u662f\u4e00\u90e8\u5f9e\u672a\u88ab\u89e3\u653e\u7684\u6975\u6b0a\u653f\u6cbb\u53f2\u3002\uff08\u9801\uff19\uff16\uff0c\uff19\uff18\uff09<\/div><div>Kazancigil (1991)\u66fe\u7d93\u5c0d\u6b64\u4f5c\u904e\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u8a8d\u70ba\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u548c\u6771\u6b63\u6559\u793e\u6703\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u5931\u6557\uff1a&#8220;\u5169\u8005\u7686\u7121\u6cd5\u5c07\u653f\u6559\u5206\u96e2&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff13\uff14\uff15\uff09\u3002\u5728\u6771\u6b50\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\uff0c\u6771\u6b63\u6559\u6559\u6703\u8207\u4e16\u4fd7\u653f\u6b0a\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u5bc6\u5207\u3002\u6b63\u5982Guroff (1993)\u6240\u5f37\u8abf\uff1a&#8220;\u6559\u6703\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u4f86\u90fd\u662f\u6c99\u7687\u4fc4\u570b\u548c\u8607\u806f\u570b\u5bb6\u653f\u6b0a\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u6a5f\u95dc\u3002. . .\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u5728\u6c99\u7687\u4fc4\u570b\u6216\u8607\u806f\uff0c\u6771\u6b63\u6559\u6559\u6703\u5f9e\u4f86\u6ca1\u6709\u70ba\u4eba\u6b0a\u6216\u5b97\u6559\u81ea\u7531\u767c\u8072&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff11\uff10\uff0d\uff11\uff11\uff09\u3002<\/div><div>Eisenstadt (1968)\u66fe\u7d93\u6307\u51fa\u5728\u5112\u6559\u4e2d\u570b&#8220;\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u9593\u6559\u6703\u6216\u4e00\u500b\u6587\u5316\u6a5f\u69cb\u80fd\u64fa\u812b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u64cd\u63a7&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff12\uff15\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u540c\u6a23\u5730\uff0c&#8220;\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u6559\u4e5f\u5f37\u8abf\u653f\u6559\u5718\u9ad4\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u540c\u4e00\u6027\uff0c&#8221;\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u7e3d\u7d50\u51fa&#8220;\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u793e\u6703\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u76f8\u540c\u9ede&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff12\uff17\uff09\u3002\u4ea8\u5ef7\u9813\uff08Huntington \uff0c1993\uff09\u8aaa\u904e\uff0c&#8220;\u95dc\u65bc\u50b3\u7d71\u5112\u6559\u662f\u975e\u6c11\u4e3b\u6216\u53cd\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u4e0a\u9084\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5b78\u8005\u5c0d\u6b64\u8868\u793a\u904e\u7570\u8b70&#8221;(\u9801\uff11\uff15; Whyte 1992: 60)\u3002Lucian Pye (1968; 1985)\u5c0d\u6b64\u4e5f\u5f37\u8abf\u5112\u6559\u548c\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7406\u5ff5\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u76f8\u540c\u9ede\uff0c\u4ed6\u8aaa\uff1a&#8220;\u5169\u8005\u5728\u6b0a\u8cb4\u968e\u5c64\u4e0a\u7684\u50b2\u6162\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u4e0a\u540c\u6a23\u5730\u6975\u7aef. . .\u5169\u8005\u4e5f\u540c\u6a23\u5730\u5805\u6301\u5b98\u50da\u5c0d\u570b\u4e8b\u7684\u58df\u65b7\u3002. . .\u6709\u4e00\u9ede\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5112\u6559\u548c\u6bdb\u6fa4\u6771\u601d\u60f3\u5728\u610f\u8b58\u5f62\u614b\u4e0a\u90fd\u540c\u6a23\u5f37\u8abf\u6b0a\u5a01\u548c\u79e9\u5e8f&#8221;(Pye 1968: 16)\u3002He Baogang (1992)\u4e5f\u4f5c\u904e\u985e\u4f3c\u4f46\u4e0d\u90a3\u9ebc\u60b2\u89c0\u7684\u9673\u8ff0\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u5927\u9678\u7684\u6587\u5316\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5f8c\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u5982\u4e0b\u7d50\u8ad6\uff1a&#8220;\u8b49\u64da\u986f\u793a\u9019\u91cc\u7684\u53cd\u6c11\u4e3b\u6587\u5316\u56e0\u5b50\u6bd4\u89aa\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u6587\u5316\u56e0\u5b50\u8981\u4f86\u5f97\u5f37\u5927&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff11\uff13\uff14\uff09\u3002\u800c\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u53ea\u6709\u65e5\u672c\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u5112\u6559\u8272\u5f69\u6700\u4e0d\u7d14\u7684\u5112\u6559\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c&#8220;\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff10\u5e74\u524d\u5df2\u7d93\u64c1\u6709\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\uff0c. . .\u5118\u7ba1\u5b83\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u53ea\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4e8c\u6230\u5f8c\u4f54\u9818\u7684\u7522\u7269&#8221;(Huntington 1991: 15)\u3002\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u5112\u6559\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u97d3\u570b\uff0c\u8d8a\u5357\uff0c\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\uff0c\u548c\u53f0\u7063&#9472;\u5b83\u5011\u5927\u9ad4\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\u90fd\u662f\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u7f3a\u5c11\u6c11\u4e3b\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u6587\u5316\u985e\u4f3c\uff0c&#8220;\u5112\u6559\u5c07\u793e\u6703\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u5408\u4e8c\u70ba\u4e00\uff0c\u5b83\u4e26\u4e0d\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u793e\u6703\u81ea\u767c\u7d44\u7e54\u5728\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u5c64\u9762\u63d0\u4f9b\u652f\u6301\u548c\u5408\u6cd5\u6027&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff13\uff10\uff11\uff09\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u56e0\u61c9\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u6025\u901f\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5e74\u5df2\u51fa\u73fe\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u9019\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u8b8a\u9077\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c0d\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u653f\u9ad4\u7522\u751f\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/div><div>\u4f46\u5982\u5370\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u5728\u5de5\u696d\u5316\u4e4b\u524d\u5df2\u6210\u70ba\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u9ad4\u7684\u5370\u5ea6\u6559\uff08Hindu\uff09\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u5448\u73fe\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6027\u8cea\uff1a<\/div><div>\u5f9e\u6211\u5011\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u51fa\u767c\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u6587\u660e\u4e2d\u6700\u986f\u8457\u7684\u7279\u5fb5\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5b83\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u7a2e\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5b8c\u6574\u548c\u7368\u7279\u6587\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u6574\u500b\u6b77\u53f2\u9577\u6cb3\u91cc\u90fd\u80fd\u4fdd\u6301\u5176\u6587\u5316\u4e0a\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u4f46\u53c8\u5f9e\u4f86\u4e0d\u66fe\u88ab\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u6240\u64cd\u63a7\u3002. . .\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u53e4\u8001\u6587\u660e\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u6587\u660e\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u5c07\u653f\u6cbb\u4e16\u4fd7\u5316\u3002. . .\u56e0\u70ba\u5176\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6587\u5316\u4e0a\u7684\u5206\u96e2\uff0c\u73fe\u4ee3\u5316\u5728\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u4e0d\u6703\u50cf\u5176\u4ed6\u50b3\u7d71\u6587\u660e\u822c\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u626f\u4e0a\u592a\u5927\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002(Eisenstadt 1968: 32)<\/div><div>\u4f46\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u9019\u4e9b\u5c0d\u6587\u5316\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e26\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6d6a\u6f6e\u5728\u524d\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u9663\u71df\u4e2d\u6709\u5149\u660e\u7684\u524d\u666f\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u6559\u6703\u5728\u6ce2\u862d\u812b\u96e2\u8607\u806f\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u626e\u6f14\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u66fe\u6df1\u53d7\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u4e26\u975e\u662f\u6700\u6613\u63a5\u53d7\u6c11\u4e3b\u89c0\u5ff5\u6d17\u79ae\u7684\u5730\u5340\u3002\u6ce2\u862d\u73fe\u5728\u6df1\u53d7\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u6559\u6703\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u548c\u9ebb\u7169\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u6559\u6703\u5df2\u7d93\u653e\u9b06\u5c0d\u897f\u6b50\u548c\u7f8e\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u64cd\u63a7\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u73fe\u5728\u6b63\u52a0\u5f37\u5c0d\u6771\u6b50\u7684\u5e72\u9810\u3002\u6771\u6b63\u6559\u5728\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u548c\u767d\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u4f86\u90fd\u8655\u65bc\u652f\u914d\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u73fe\u5728\u4e5f\u662f\u53d7\u5236\u65bc\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u548c\u6771\u6b63\u6559\u6559\u6703\u3002\u800c\u6cd5\u897f\u65af\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5728\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u548c\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u90fd\u662f\u6839\u6df1\u67e2\u56fa\u3002\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u5728\u524d\u8607\u806f\u7684\u4e2d\u4e9e\u5730\u5340\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u65cf\u7fa4\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u4e2d\u4e9e\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u7368\u7acb\u5f8c\u662f\u524d\u8607\u806f\u6240\u6709\u539f\u6210\u54e1\u570b\u4e2d\u6700\u7f3a\u5c11\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u3002\u800c\u7531\u4fe1\u5949\u6771\u6b63\u6559\u7684\u585e\u723e\u7dad\u4e9e\u4eba\u9818\u5c0e\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4fe1\u5949\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u7684\u514b\u7f85\u5730\u4e9e\u4eba\u548c\u4fe1\u5949\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u6559\u7684\u6ce2\u65af\u5c3c\u4e9e\u4eba\u7d44\u6210\u7684\u524d\u5357\u65af\u62c9\u592b\u73fe\u6b63\u53d7\u5230\u56e0\u70ba\u7a2e\u65cf\u548c\u5b97\u6559\u77db\u76fe\u5f15\u767c\u7684\u5167\u4e82\u6298\u78e8\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u548c\u5e73\u66f4\u6ca1\u6709\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u6307\u671b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5c0d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u6587\u5316\u50f9\u503c\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0d\u76f8\u548c\u8ae7\u7684\u5e38\u898b\u73fe\u8c61\u719f\u8996\u7121\u7779\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u6b3a\u9a19\u81ea\u5df1\u3002<\/div><div>\u4f46\u4eba\u7684\u4fe1\u4ef0\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u8a95\u751f\uff0c\u4e2d\u7522\u968e\u7d1a\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u66f4\u6709\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u52de\u5de5\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u589e\u9577\u7684\u8ca1\u5bcc\u548c\u6559\u80b2\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e16\u4fd7\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u8208\u8d77\u548c\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703\u7684\u6210\u719f\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u6703\u5728\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u7bc4\u570d\u91cc\u5275\u9020\u81ea\u6cbb\u7a7a\u9593\u548c\u6709\u5229\u689d\u4ef6\u53bb\u5be6\u73fe\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002\u5728\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u6700\u660e\u986f\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u83ab\u904e\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u4e0d\u65b7\u7e41\u69ae\u7684\u4ee5\u5112\u6559\u70ba\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7684\u6771\u4e9e\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u66fe\u7d93\u88ab\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u6700\u6ca1\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u5230\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002Tu (1993)\u7559\u610f\u5230\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6&#8220;\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u65b9\u9762\u5f9e\u672a\u6709\u904e\u7684\u6d3b\u529b\u3002\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\uff0c\u97d3\u570b\uff0c\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u90fd\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff12\u5e74\u6210\u529f\u5730\u8209\u884c\u4e86\u5168\u570b\u5927\u9078\uff0c\u6b64\u8209\u8b49\u660e\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u5728\u5112\u6559\u570b\u5bb6\u4e0d\u50c5\u53ef\u80fd\u800c\u4e14\u53ef\u884c&#8221;(\u9801viii)\u3002Nathan\u548cShi (1993)\u66fe\u7d93\u5831\u9053\u904e&#8220;\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u9032\u884c\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u5177\u6709\u79d1\u5b78\u5408\u7406\u6027\u7684\u95dc\u65bc\u653f\u6cbb\u884c\u70ba\u548c\u53d6\u5411\u7684\u5168\u570b\u6027\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c&#8221;\u4ed6\u5011\u767c\u73fe&#8220;\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u7a69\u5b9a\u548c\u6709\u60a0\u4e45\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u5c45\u6c11\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u516c\u6c11\u5728\u540c\u985e\u8abf\u67e5\u4e2d\u7684\u5f97\u5206\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4ed4\u7d30\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u5f97\u5206\u4e26\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f15\u51fa\u6c11\u4e3b\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u7121\u6cd5\u5be6\u884c\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff11\uff11\uff16\uff09\u3002\u540c\u985e\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\u66fe\u7d93\u5728\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u505a\u904e\u4e26\u5f97\u51fa\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6b63\u9762\u7d50\u8ad6\uff08Gibson and Duch 1993\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff13\u5e74\uff11\uff12\u6708\u7531\u7576\u6642\u7684\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u548c\u89aa\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u5f97\u52dd\u7684\u9078\u8209\u4e2d\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u8a72\u570b\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u9053\u8def\u4e0a\u8981\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u9084\u5f88\u591a\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u5728\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u7684\u524d\u8607\u806f\u548c\u975e\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u5de5\u696d\u5316\u9084\u672a\u6210\u578b\u7684\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u793e\u6703\u90fd\u672a\u80fd\u751f\u6839\u767c\u82bd\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5f88\u591a\u65b0\u751f\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u4e0d\u65b7\u52aa\u529b\u548c\u53d6\u5f97\u9032\u6b65\uff0c\u4f46\u96a8\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u800c\u4f86\u7684\u5fc5\u9700\u7684\u6587\u5316\u8f49\u578b\u4e26\u6ca1\u6709\u7522\u751f\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u6211\u5011\u9084\u4e0d\u80fd\u8aaa\u9019\u500b&#8220;\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u6d6a\u6f6e&#8221;\u4e0d\u6703\u88ab\u626d\u8f49\u3002\u4f86\u81ea\u81ea\u7531\u4e4b\u5bb6\uff08Freedom House\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff13\u5e74\uff0c&#8220;\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6c11\u751f\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6709\uff14\uff12\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u51fa\u73fe\u9000\u6b65\u50be\u5411\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u6709\uff11\uff19\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u6709\u9032\u6b65\u8ff9\u8c61&#8221;(Karatnycky 1994: 5)\u3002&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><strong>\u5236\u5ea6\u5316<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u793e\u6703\u5fc5\u9808\u4f7f\u5176\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5f37\uff0c\u548c\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u5177\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u90fd\u9762\u81e8\u5f88\u591a\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u5275\u9020\u4e00\u500b\u66f4\u7e41\u69ae\u548c\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7cfb\uff1b\u6e1b\u5c11\u885d\u7a81\uff1b\u53d6\u4ee3\u820a\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u8ecd\u65b9\u7cbe\u82f1\uff1b\u548c\u4f9d\u9760\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u4f86\u5236\u5b9a\u66f4\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u9078\u8209\u548c\u7ba1\u6cbb\u7cfb\u7d71(Linz and Stepan 1989; Whitehead 1989; Di Palma 1990: 44-108; Huntington 1991: 208-79)\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8981\u628a\u6240\u6709\u95dc\u65bc\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u7684\u554f\u984c\u8aaa\u6e05\u5247\u9700\u8981\u5c08\u66f8\u53e6\u4f5c\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5728\u6b64\u53ea\u80fd\u5206\u6790\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5e7e\u9ede\uff1a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff0c\u57f7\u884c\u9078\u8209\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703\uff0c\u653f\u9ee8\uff0c\u6cd5\u6cbb\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/div><div><strong>\u5408\u6cd5\u6027<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\u8b00\u6c42\u653f\u6cbb\u7a69\u5b9a\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f9d\u9760\u6b66\u529b\u3002\u5728\u6b66\u529b\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u662f\u5c0b\u6c42\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff08legitimacy\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u8b02\u7684&#8220;\u4e00\u7a2e\u53ef\u4ee5\u70ba\u5404\u65b9\u6240\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u7ba1\u6cbb\u6b0a&#8221;\uff08an accepted systemic title to rule\uff09\u3002 \u3000\u8209\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u7684\u5317\u6b50\u548c\u82f1\u806f\u90a6\u570b\u5bb6\u90fd\u5728\u767c\u5c55\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u540c\u6642\u7dad\u8b77\u548c\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u5176\u50b3\u7d71\u541b\u4e3b\u5236\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u548c\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u9019\u5169\u7a2e\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u540c\u6642\u4e26\u5b58\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u5730\u5340\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u6703\u50cf\u73fe\u5728\u822c\u5efa\u7acb\u548c\u767c\u5c55\u3002<\/div><div>\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u9f3b\u7956Weber (1946)\u66fe\u5206\u6790\u904e\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u7a2e\u7531\u638c\u6b0a\u8005\u53d6\u5f97\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u5b83\u5011\u5927\u81f4\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff1a<\/div><div>(1) \u50b3\u7d71\u4e0a\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u627f\u7e7c\uff0c\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5c31\u662f\u541b\u4e3b\u5236\u570b\u5bb6\u3002<\/div><div>(2) \u9075\u5faa\u6cd5\u5f8b\u548c\u7406\u6027\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u4ea4\u63a5\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0b\uff0c\u638c\u6b0a\u8005\u8d0f\u5f97\u6b0a\u529b\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u901a\u904e\u9078\u8209\u53d6\u5f97\u5728\u4f4d\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u548c\u88ab\u5927\u773e\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u61b2\u6cd5\u662f\u6240\u6709\u8077\u6b0a\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u57fa\u790e\u3002<\/div><div>(3) \u638c\u6b0a\u8005\u4ee5\u500b\u4eba\u9b45\u529b\u4f86\u53d6\u5f97\u6b0a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u4e0a\u53f0\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5927\u773e\u76f8\u4fe1\u5176\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u5929\u624d\u548c\u795e\u8ce6\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u4eba\u6709\u7279\u6b8a\u624d\u83ef\u548c\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u5b97\u6559\u5148\u77e5\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u5230\u4f86\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u4e0a\u5e1d\u7684\u50b3\u53ec\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u660e\u986f\u7684&#8220;\u500b\u4eba\u5d07\u62dc&#8221;\uff08cult of personality\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4ee5\u524d\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u638c\u6b0a\u8005\u8eab\u4e0a\u90fd\u770b\u898b\u904e\u9019\u7a2e\u73fe\u8c61\uff08\u9801\uff17\uff18\uff0d\uff17\uff19\uff09\u3002<\/div><div>\u53d6\u5f97\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u901a\u904e\u9577\u671f\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff08prolonged effectiveness\uff09\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u9ad4\u73fe\u5728\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u548c\u5b83\u80fd\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6eff\u8db3\u516c\u6c11\u548c\u5404\u968e\u5c64\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u8ecd\u968a\u548c\u7d93\u5546\u754c\u7684\u9818\u8896\uff09\u7684\u9700\u8981\u548c\u9858\u671b\uff08Lipset I960, 1981: 64-70; Lipset 1979: 16-23; Linz 1978: 67-74; Linz 1988: 79-85; Diamond et al. 1990: 9-16\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u9019\u500b\u6b78\u7d0d\u4e26\u4e0d\u80fd\u5e6b\u52a9\u73fe\u6642\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u9ad4\u5275\u9020\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u5de5\u5177\u4f86\u5206\u9694\u5229\u76ca\u96c6\u5718\u548c\u638c\u6b0a\u8005\u3002<\/div><div>\u9019\u7a2e\u5206\u9694\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u7d55\u4e0d\u53ef\u4f4e\u4f30\u3002\u638c\u6b0a\u8005\u5728\u7af6\u9078\u6642\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u88ab\u9078\u6c11\u53cd\u5c0d\u548c\u6392\u64e0\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u6b0a\u529b\u8c61\u5fb5\u5fc5\u9808\u53d7\u5230\u5c0a\u91cd\u548c\u4e0d\u88ab\u6311\u6230\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u570b\u516c\u6c11\u9700\u5b88\u6cd5\u548c\u5c0a\u91cd\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u559c\u6b61\u638c\u6b0a\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0a\u60c5\u6cc1\u66fe\u7d93\u767c\u751f\u5728\u5f8c\u5f17\u6717\u54e5\uff08post-Franco\uff09\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u897f\u73ed\u7259\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u7684\u541b\u4e3b\u5236\u5728\u4e8c\u6230\u5f8c\u6210\u529f\u5730\u91cd\u65b0\u5efa\u7acb\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u4e5f\u53ea\u6709\u5f88\u5c11\u570b\u5bb6\u80fd\u505a\u5230\u9019\u9ede\u3002\u5728\u4e8c\u6230\u5f8c\u7684\u65e5\u672c\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9ea5\u514b\u963f\u745f\uff08MacArthur\uff09\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5728\u5929\u7687\u7684\u6069\u6e96\u4e0b\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6232\u5287\u6027\u8f49\u8b8a\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u907f\u514d\u4e86\u4e00\u6230\u5f8c\u5354\u7d04\u570b\u6240\u72af\u4e0b\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u6230\u5f8c\uff0c\u5354\u7d04\u570b\u6467\u6bc1\u4e86\u5fb7\u570b\u7684\u541b\u4e3b\u5236\u800c\u5354\u52a9\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u5f8c\u4f86\u7684\u9b4f\u746a\u5171\u548c\u570b\uff08Weimar Republic\uff09\u3002\u6e29\u65af\u9813&#8231;\u4e18\u5409\u723e\uff08Winston Churchill\uff09\u66fe\u5f37\u70c8\u53cd\u5c0d\u6b64\u8209\uff0c\u4ed6\u6b63\u78ba\u5730\u9810\u8a08\u5230\u65b0\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u6703\u88ab\u5fb7\u570b\u738b\u5ba4\u6b98\u9918\u52e2\u529b\u6240\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c\u65b0\u653f\u4e0d\u6703\u5f97\u5230\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u652f\u6301\u548c\u4fe1\u4efb\u3002<\/div><div>\u64c1\u6709\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6548\u529b\u548c\u7406\u6027\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6b0a\u529b\u7ba1\u6cbb\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6578\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u90fd\u662f\u5b71\u5f31\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u91cc\u5176\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u90fd\u662f\u4ee5\u7576\u5730\u7684\u5916\u570b\u6b96\u6c11\u8005\u6216\u672c\u571f\u7684\u7368\u88c1\u8005\u70ba\u4f9d\u64da\u3002\u70ba\u4e86\u9054\u81f4\u5efa\u7acb\u64c1\u6709\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6548\u529b\u548c\u7406\u6027\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6b0a\u529b\u7ba1\u6cbb\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u52a0\u5f37\u6cd5\u6cbb\u548c\u7dad\u8b77\u6cd5\u5ead\u7684\u8072\u8b7d\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u5169\u8005\u90fd\u5fc5\u9808\u662f\u7368\u7acb\u65bc\u653f\u6cbb\u4ee5\u5916\u3002\u6b63\u5982Ackerman (1992: 60-62) \u548c Weingast (1993)\u4f5c\u904e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5728\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u91cc\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5148\u6c7a\u689d\u4ef6\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u52d9\u5fc5\u5118\u5feb\u5236\u5b9a\u81ea\u7531\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u61b2\u6cd5\u3002\u61b2\u6cd5\u80fd\u70ba\u6b0a\u529b\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fdd\u969c\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u6feb\u6b0a\uff0c\u4fdd\u8b77\u516c\u6c11\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6b0a\u5229\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u9019\u4e00\u5957\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u9ad4\u7cfb\u9700\u8981\u82b1\u8cbb\u5f88\u9577\u7684\u6642\u9593\u3002<\/div><div>\u4e8c\u6230\u5f8c\u7531\u524d\u6cd5\u897f\u65af\u653f\u6b0a\u5275\u7acb\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u50cf\u9b4f\u746a\u5171\u548c\u570b\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u4f54\u9818\u570b\u7684\u652f\u63f4\u4e0b\u53d6\u5f97\u56e0\u800c\u5728\u958b\u59cb\u6642\u4e26\u7121\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u53ef\u8a00\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u4e8c\u6230\u5f8c\u5be6\u73fe\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u7684\u5947\u8ff9\u4ee4\u5230\u5b83\u5011\u6709\u4e86\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u9019\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u5275\u9020\u4e86\u5c31\u696d\u6a5f\u6703\u548c\u9010\u6b65\u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u751f\u6d3b\u8cea\u7d20\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6301\u7e8c\u4e86\u591a\u5e74\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u7a69\u5b9a\u4e5f\u8207\u5b83\u5011\u570b\u5167\u5c0d\u53f3\u7ffc\u53cd\u6c11\u4e3b\u52e2\u529b\u7684\u6291\u5236\u6709\u95dc\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u53f3\u7ffc\u53cd\u6c11\u4e3b\u52e2\u529b\u5728\u7576\u5730\u662f\u8207\u6cd5\u897f\u65af\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u8ecd\u570b\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u5931\u6557\u806f\u4fc2\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002<\/div><div>\u6211\u5728\u6b64\u9700\u8981\u91cd\u7533\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6b0a\u5728\u6b20\u7f3a\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u4ecd\u80fd\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u5247\u5fc5\u9808\u505a\u5230\u5177\u5099\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u62c9\u7f8e\u548c\u5f8c\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u65b0\u751f\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u91cc\u3002\u5b83\u5011\u9700\u8981\u5c0b\u6c42\u4e00\u7a2e\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u8ca0\u9762\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff08negative legitimacy\uff09&#9472;\u5373\u4e00\u7a2e\u7528\u65bc\u62b5\u6d88\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u79fb\u82b1\u63a5\u6728\u5f0f\u7684\u653f\u5236\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u91cc\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u7368\u88c1\u653f\u6b0a\u5be6\u5728\u662f\u6839\u6df1\u67e2\u56fa\u3002\u65b0\u7368\u7acb\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u7522\u751f\u5728\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6216\u653f\u8b8a\u4ee5\u5f8c\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u5f9e\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7ba1\u6cbb\u57fa\u790e\u3002\u8209\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u6230\u5f8c\u7684\u6b50\u6d32\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u5927\u591a\u6578\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u90fd\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e86\u5967\u5308\u5e1d\u570b\uff0c\u666e\u9b6f\u58eb\u548c\u6c99\u7687\u4fc4\u570b\u800c\u61c9\u904b\u800c\u751f\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u9577\u6cbb\u4e45\u5b89\u3002\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff12\uff10\u5e74\uff0c\u7576\u6642\uff12\uff18\u500b\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u4e2d\u6709\uff12\uff16\u500b\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u8b70\u6703\u5236\uff1b\u4f46\u5230\u4e86\uff11\uff19\uff13\uff18\u5e74\u53ea\u5269\uff11\uff12\u500b(Mann 1993: 2; Lee 1987)\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u6b64\u524d\u6240\u6307\uff0c\u5728\u4e8c\u6230\u5f8c\u53d6\u5f97\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u62c9\u7f8e\u548c\u975e\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u6b62\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u8ca7\u7aae\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff13\u5e74\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u90fd\u4e0d\u7d04\u800c\u540c\u5730\u898b\u8b49\u4e86\u5176\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u6ed1\u5761\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u9664\u4e86\u5176\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u7684\u5931\u6557\u5916\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u90fd\u7121\u6cd5\u6eff\u8db3\u5176\u570b\u5167\u5404\u500b\u6301\u4efd\u8005\u548c\u653f\u9ee8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u653f\u6b0a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\u4f86\u53d6\u4fe1\u65bc\u4eba\u6c11\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b83\u5011\u6b64\u524d\u5efa\u7acb\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u4e0d\u65b7\u53d7\u632b(Linz and Stepan 1978)\u3002<\/div><div>\u5118\u7ba1\u5f88\u96e3\u4f5c\u51fa\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u4f46\u7e3d\u62ec\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u975e\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u653f\u6b0a\u6bd4\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6b0a\u4f86\u5f97\u8106\u5f31\u3002\u5f9e\u6027\u8cea\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u653f\u6b0a\u66f4\u7f3a\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff1b\u5b83\u5011\u66f4\u4f9d\u8cf4\u65bc\u6b66\u529b\u800c\u975e\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4f86\u53d6\u5f97\u548c\u652f\u6490\u6b0a\u529b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9019\u6a23\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u662f\u4e0d\u53d7\u5176\u7d55\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u516c\u6c11\u7684\u6b61\u8fce\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u906d\u5230\u62b5\u89f8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u7a2e\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff0c\u5b83\u53ea\u6703\u5f15\u8d77\u66f4\u591a\u6c11\u6028\uff0c\u66f4\u8150\u6557\uff0c\u548c\u51fa\u73fe\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5c0d\u6cd5\u6cbb\u7684\u6bc1\u58de\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u4f9d\u8cf4\u65bc\u6b66\u529b\u4f86\u7dad\u7cfb\u548c\u4e26\u4e0d\u53d7\u6c11\u773e\u8a8d\u53ef\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\uff0c\u5176\u5f9e\u672c\u8cea\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\u662f\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u548c\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5371\u6a5f\u9762\u524d\u5d29\u6f70\u7684\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6258\u514b\u7dad\u723e\uff08Tocqueville\uff09\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4e5f\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u4ee4\u9019\u500b\u653f\u6b0a\u82df\u5ef6\u6b8b\u5598\u3002\u5c08\u5236\u653f\u6b0a\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u6563\u64ad\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u5751\u4eba\u4e8c\u5341\u4e8c\u7684\u8655\u5883\uff08a catch-22 situation\uff09\uff1a\u5c31\u8c61\u5f17\u6717\u54e5\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u897f\u73ed\u7259\uff0c\u97d3\u570b\uff0c\u548c\u667a\u5229\uff0c&#8220;\u9019\u4e9b\u653f\u6b0a\u80fd\u9054\u81f4\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u7684\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5011\u7121\u6cd5\u6eff\u8db3\u5176\u4eba\u6c11\u5c0d\u53c3\u653f\u7684\u8a34\u6c42\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u5b83\u5011\u7684\u7368\u88c1\u6d88\u5931&#8221;(Diamond 1989 a: 150; Huntington 1968: 5, 41)\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5c08\u5236\u653f\u6b0a\u672a\u80fd\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u6216\u793e\u6703\u9818\u57df\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u4e5f\u5c07\u96a8\u4e4b\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u4e26\u6703\u56e0\u6b64\u5c0e\u81f4\u5176\u57ae\u53f0\u3002<\/div><div>\u4f46\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u80fd\u7528\u4f86\u5f62\u5bb9\u8607\u806f\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u8a72\u653f\u6b0a\u7dad\u7cfb\u4e86\u9577\u9054\u56db\u4efd\u4e4b\u4e09\u7684\u4e16\u7d00\u3002\u8a71\u53c8\u8aaa\u56de\u4f86\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u8106\u5f31\u548c\u4e0d\u53d7\u6b61\u8fce\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\u672a\u5fc5\u6703\u5012\u53f0\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u93ae\u58d3\u5f0f\u7684\u8b66\u5bdf\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u8ecd\u968a\uff0c\u548c\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\u64c1\u6709\u96a8\u6642\u7528\u6b66\u529b\u4f86\u89e3\u6c7a\u6c11\u4e82\u7684\u6c7a\u5fc3\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee4\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\u5f97\u4ee5\u9577\u6cbb\u4e45\u5b89\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u653f\u6b0a\u7684\u74e6\u89e3\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u50ac\u5316\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e00\u5834\u6230\u722d\u7684\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u6025\u901f\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u653f\u6b0a\u5167\u90e8\u9593\u7684\u5167\u8a0c\u3002\u5728\u8607\u806f\uff0c\u6208\u723e\u5df4\u55ac\u592b\uff08Gorbachev\uff09\u4e0a\u53f0\u4e4b\u524d\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u5404\u7a2e\u5404\u6a23\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u793e\u6703\u6578\u64da\u8868\u660e\u8a72\u570b\u6240\u9762\u5c0d\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u56f0\u5883&#9472;\u4f8b\u5982\u751f\u7522\u529b\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u7684\u4e0a\u5347&#9472;\u5728\u5728\u986f\u793a\u4e86\u5176\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u56b4\u91cd\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u5176\u898f\u6a21\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u79d8\u5bc6\u8b66\u5bdf\u7d44\u7e54\u4e5f\u8b49\u660e\u4e86\u653f\u6b0a\u7684\u4f4e\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u548c\u4f4e\u64c1\u8b77\u5ea6(Feshbach 1978, 1982, 1983; Amalrik 1970; Todd 1979)\u3002\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff15\uff13\u5e74\u7684\u6771\u67cf\u6797\uff0c\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff15\uff16\u5e74\u7684\u5e03\u9054\u4f69\u65af\uff0c\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff16\uff18\u5e74\u7684\u5e03\u62c9\u683c\uff0c\u548c\u81ea\uff11\uff19\uff15\uff15\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u767c\u751f\u5728\u6ce2\u862d\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4e8b\u4ef6\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6700\u7d42\u5728\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u91cd\u6f14\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u6211\u5011\u5df2\u7d93\u53ef\u4ee5\u8a8d\u53ef\u4e00\u4e9b\u5c0d\u8a72\u653f\u6b0a\u6301\u6700\u56b4\u53b2\u6279\u8a55\u7684\u5b78\u8005\u7684\u8a00\u8a5e\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u50cf\u8607\u806f\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u5b83\u4e0d\u6703\u7acb\u5373\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u5d29\u6f70\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u5b83\u4ea6\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6548\u7387\u548c\u7121\u751f\u7522\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/div><div>\u8207\u5c08\u5236\u653f\u6b0a\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u4f9d\u8cf4\u548c\u5c0b\u6c42\u6c11\u773e\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4e26\u5bb9\u8a31\u4e0d\u540c\u9ee8\u6d3e\u7af6\u722d\u6b0a\u529b\u548c\u9078\u7968\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u4f4e\u6548\u7387\u672a\u5fc5\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u793e\u6703\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u57df\u3002\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u662f\u626e\u6f14\u7740\u5354\u8abf\u6e9d\u901a\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u8077\u8cac\u662f\u76e3\u7763\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u63ed\u793a\u793e\u6703\u554f\u984c\u3002\u6709\u6210\u7acb\u548c\u7d44\u5efa\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u610f\u6627\u7740\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u9818\u57df\u64c1\u6709\u5145\u4efd\u7684\u8a00\u8ad6\u81ea\u7531\u3002<\/div><div>\u97cb\u4f2f(Weber 1946: 232-34)\u66fe\u7d93\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u7368\u88c1\u8005\u5176\u5be6\u8981\u6bd4\u4e00\u500b\u6c11\u4e3b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u9818\u8896\u66f4\u7121\u6b0a\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u8b58\u5230\u56e0\u70ba\u8a00\u8ad6\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u7368\u88c1\u8005\u672a\u5fc5\u6703\u77e5\u9053\u4ed6\u7684\u547d\u4ee4\u662f\u5426\u6703\u88ab\u5176\u4e0b\u5c6c\u5b98\u50da\u6240\u6031\u7565\u6216\u88ab\u53cd\u5c0d\u4ed6\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\u6240\u5acc\u68c4\u3002\u97cb\u4f2f\u70ba\u6b64\u5f15\u7528\u904e\u5fb7\u570b\u7684\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5927\u5e1d\uff08Frederick the Great\uff09\u5931\u6557\u7684\u571f\u5730\u6539\u9769\u4f5c\u70ba\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u7576\u6642\u7684\u666e\u9b6f\u58eb\u5e1d\u570b\u4e0b\u7684\u5b98\u50da\u548c\u7576\u5730\u7684\u8cb4\u65cf\u4e26\u6ca1\u6709\u57f7\u884c\u9019\u9805\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u4f46\u537b\u7121\u4eba\u628a\u9019\u4e8b\u544a\u8a34\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u5927\u5e1d\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u793e\u6703\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u548c\u50b3\u5a92\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u6703\u628a\u9019\u7a2e\u9055\u6cd5\u4e82\u7d00\u4e4b\u4e8b\u516c\u8af8\u65bc\u773e\u3002<\/div><div>\u7c73\u54c8\u4f0a\u723e&#8231;\u6208\u723e\u5df4\u55ac\u592b\uff08Mikhail Gorbachev\uff09\u5728\u5176\u57f7\u653f\u7684\u6700\u5f8c\u5e7e\u5e74\u81f3\u5c11\u5169\u6b21\u767c\u8868\u8b1b\u8a71\u63d0\u53ca\u4e00\u9ee8\u5236\u7684\u4e0d\u826f\u5f8c\u679c\u3002\u8207\u97cb\u4f2f\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u985e\u4f3c\uff0c\u6208\u723e\u5df4\u55ac\u592b\u8a8d\u8b58\u5230\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\u7684\u5b98\u50da\u5011\u5f80\u5f80\u62d2\u7d55\u57f7\u884c\u4ed6\u5011\u6240\u53cd\u5c0d\u548c\u8a0e\u53ad\u7684\u547d\u4ee4\u548c\u6539\u9769\u3002\u4ed6\u5f37\u8abf\u9019\u7a2e\u4e8b\u60c5\u7d55\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u767c\u751f\u5728\u591a\u9ee8\u5236\u7684\u793e\u6703\u3002\u5f9e\u6208\u723e\u5df4\u55ac\u592b\u89d2\u5ea6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4ed6\u7576\u7136\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u591a\u9ee8\u5236\u3002\u4ed6\u70ba\u6b64\u547c\u5401\u8607\u806f\u7684\u50b3\u5a92\u548c\u77e5\u8b58\u4efd\u5b50\u626e\u6f14\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e2d\u7684\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u53bb\u63ed\u793a\u548c\u66b4\u9732\u793e\u6703\u7684\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u73fe\u8c61(Gorbachev 1987: R 24; 1988: 33)\u3002<\/div><div>\u975e\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u653f\u9ad4\u5617\u8a66\u901a\u904e\u5efa\u7acb\u500b\u4eba\u8ff7\u4fe1\uff08cults of personality\uff09\u4f86\u5efa\u7acb\u5176\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u62ff\u7834\u5d19\uff08Napoleon\uff09\uff0c\u675c\u6851\uff08Toussaint\uff09\uff0c\u58a8\u7d22\u91cc\u5c3c\uff08Mussolini\uff09\uff0c\u5e0c\u7279\u52d2\uff08Hitler\uff09\u3002\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u7368\u88c1\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u7f3a\u4e4f\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f9e\u6cd5\u6cbb\u7684\u6e20\u9053\u4f86\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u6cd5\u7406\u57fa\u790e\u4e0a\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7ba1\u6cbb\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u99ac\u514b\u601d\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u610f\u8b58\u5f62\u614b\u66fe\u660e\u78ba\u5730\u53cd\u5c0d\u6e32\u67d3\u5f37\u4eba\uff08great men\uff09\u5728\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u800c\u5f37\u8abf\u7269\u8cea\u529b\u91cf\u548c\u4eba\u6c11\u5927\u773e\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u4f46\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u653f\u6b0a\u537b\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u8feb\u5730\u53bb\u4f9d\u9760\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u9b45\u529b\u4f86\u5efa\u7acb\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3002\u5b83\u5011\u7684\u9019\u4e9b\u8209\u63aa\u901a\u5e38\u53ea\u6703\u7de0\u9020\u4e00\u500b\u53c8\u4e00\u500b\u7368\u88c1\u8005\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5217\u5be7\uff08Lenin\uff09\uff0c\u65af\u5927\u6797\uff08Stalin\uff09\uff0c\u6bdb\u6fa4\u6771\uff08Mao\uff09\uff0c\u9435\u6258\uff08Tito\uff09\uff0c\u5361\u65af\u7279\u7f85\uff08Castro\uff09\uff0c\u80e1\u5fd7\u660e\uff08Ho\uff09\uff0c\u91d1\u65e5\u6210\uff08Kim\uff09\uff0c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u3002\u5728\u9019\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u503c\u5f97\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u6709\uff14\u500b\u66fe\u7d93\u7d93\u6b77\u904e\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u6c11\u773e\u53cd\u653f\u5e9c\u8d77\u7fa9\u7684\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u570b\u5bb6&#9472;\uff11\uff19\uff15\uff13\u5e74\u7684\u6771\u5fb7\uff0c\uff11\uff19\uff15\uff16\u5e74\u7684\u5308\u7259\u5229\uff0c\uff11\uff19\uff15\uff15\u5e74\u81f3\uff11\uff19\uff18\uff10\u5e74\u7684\u6ce2\u862d\uff0c\u548c\uff11\uff19\uff16\uff18\u5e74\u7684\u6377\u514b\u65af\u6d1b\u4f10\u514b&#9472;\u90fd\u4e0d\u7d04\u800c\u540c\u5730\u662f\u500b\u4eba\u8ff7\u4fe1\u8272\u5f69\u6700\u5f31\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u8c61\u5f9e\uff11\uff19\uff18\uff19\u5e74\u81f3\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff11\u5e74\u7684\u524d\u8607\u806f\u3002<\/div><div>\u4f46\u662f\u4f9d\u9760\u500b\u4eba\u9b45\u529b\u4f86\u53d6\u5f97\u7d71\u6cbb\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\u662f\u4e0d\u80fd\u9577\u6cbb\u4e45\u5b89\u7684\u3002\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u662f\u5206\u9694\u5229\u76ca\u96c6\u5718\u548c\u638c\u6b0a\u8005\u3002\u7576\u638c\u6b0a\u8005\u548c\u4ed6\u6216\u5979\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u88ab\u4eba\u6c11\u8996\u70ba\u58d3\u8feb\u6216\u525d\u524a\u6642\uff0c\u8a72\u653f\u6b0a\u53ca\u5176\u5236\u5ea6\u5c07\u6703\u88ab\u4eba\u6c11\u6240\u62cb\u68c4\u3002\u4eba\u6c11\u4e0d\u6703\u88ab\u611a\u5f04\u6216\u88ab\u8feb\u53bb\u63a5\u53d7\u66b4\u653f\uff1b\u5766\u767d\u5730\u8aaa\uff0c\u50c5\u9760\u6b66\u529b\u7d55\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u5f97&#8220;\u5408\u6cd5\u7ba1\u6cbb&#8221;\uff08title to rule\uff09\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><strong>\u884c\u653f\u548c\u9078\u8209\u5236\u5ea6<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u4eba\u5011\u7684\u9053\u5fb7\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5b83\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u793e\u6703\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u4ee4\u4e00\u570b\u516c\u6c11\u6709\u53c3\u8207\u548c\u6b78\u5c6c\u611f\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u80fd\u8a8d\u8b58\u5230\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u5c6c\u65bc\u4e0a\u5c64\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u7cbe\u82f1\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8207\u5927\u773e\u606f\u606f\u76f8\u95dc\u3002\u9078\u8209\u5236\u5c31\u662f\u69cb\u7bc9\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u4e00\u74b0\u3002\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7576\u6b0a\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u64c1\u6709\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3002\u7531\u9078\u8209\u7522\u751f\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4eba\u7269\u4e0d\u50c5\u5fe0\u65bc\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e5f\u9858\u610f\u70ba\u7576\u6b0a\u653f\u5e9c\u6548\u52de\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u4f86\u5efa\u7acb\u4fdd\u969c\u516c\u6c11\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u53d7\u5230\u6311\u6230\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u6240\u5141\u8a31\u7684\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u6709\u8a34\u6c42\u548c\u6311\u6230\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4ee4\u5230\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0d\u7a69\u3002<\/div><div>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u793e\u6703\u5b78\u5bb6Metta Spencer (1991)\u66fe\u7d93\u5f37\u8abf\u904e\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u554f\u984c\u662f&#8220;\u4fdd\u8b77\u5c11\u6578\u65cf\u88d4\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\u4e0d\u53d7\u4e3b\u6d41\u65cf\u88d4\u7684\u4fb5\u72af\u3002&#8221;\u7576\u5c11\u6578\u65cf\u88d4\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u8207\u4e3b\u6d41\u65cf\u88d4\u5728\u8a9e\u8a00\u548c\u5b97\u6559\u65b9\u9762\u6709\u660e\u986f\u5dee\u5225\u7684\u7fa4\u9ad4\uff0c\u611f\u5230\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u80fd\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u5206\u4eab\u6b0a\u529b\u6642\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u4ed6\u5011&#8220;\u88ab\u4e3b\u6d41\u65cf\u88d4\u7684\u9078\u6c11\u5728\u9078\u8209\u4e2d\u6c38\u6046\u5730\u6392\u65a5&#8221;\uff09\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5c6c\u5730\u5617\u8a66\u5f97\u5230\u81ea\u6cbb\u6216\u5be6\u73fe\u5206\u96e2\u4f86\u5efa\u7acb\u5c6c\u65bc\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e3b\u9ad4\u793e\u6703\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u66fe\u7d93\u767c\u751f\u5728\u524d\u5357\u65af\u62c9\u592b\u548c\u524d\u8607\u806f\u7684\u90e8\u4efd\u5730\u65b9\uff08\u9801\uff14\uff12\uff17\uff09\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u5728\u7576\u5730\u88ab\u525d\u596a\u653f\u6cbb\u53c3\u8207\u6b0a\u7684\u5c11\u6578\u65cf\u88d4\u7684\u773c\u4e2d\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f49\u578b\u53ea\u6703\u5c0d\u5176\u591a\u5143\u6587\u5316\u653f\u6cbb\u7522\u751f\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u524d\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5df2\u7d93\u5f97\u5230\u8b49\u5be6\u3002Calhoun (1947)\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5728\uff11\uff19\u4e16\u7d00\u521d\u7684\u540c\u6b65\u4e3b\u6d41\u65cf\u88d4\u7406\u8ad6\uff08theory of concurrent majority\uff09\u548cLijphart (1977)\u7684\u5171\u540c\u793e\u6703\u5316\u5236\u5ea6\uff08consociational systems\uff09\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u90fd\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5c0d\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u7684\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u5b78\u8005\u63d0\u5021\u4ee5\u5baa\u6cd5\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u5728\u5f71\u97ff\u5176\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u7d66\u4e88\u5c11\u6578\u65cf\u88d4\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u5426\u6c7a\u6b0a\u3002\u5982\u6b64\u7684\u5617\u8a66\u5728\u585e\u6d66\u8def\u65af\u548c\u9ece\u5df4\u5ae9\u90fd\u5931\u6557\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u745e\u58eb\u537b\u5f97\u5230\u6210\u529f\u3002\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u5357\u975e\u73fe\u6b63\u9032\u884c\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u5be6\u9a57\u3002\u8af7\u523a\u5730\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u65b9\u9762\uff0cLani Guinier (1993: 1589-1642, \u5c24\u5176 1625-42)\u63d0\u51fa\u8207Calhoun\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u4f46Calhoun\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u65e8\u5728\u4fdd\u8b77\u4e3b\u6d41\u793e\u7fa4\u7684\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u800cGuinier\u5247\u610f\u5716\u4fdd\u969c\u975e\u4e3b\u6d41\u793e\u7fa4\u53ca\u5176\u5f8c\u88d4\u7684\u8a34\u6c42\u3002<\/div><div>\u806f\u90a6\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff08Federalism\uff09\u7576\u7136\u662f\u6700\u53e4\u8001\u548c\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u80fd\u89e3\u6c7a\u65cf\u88d4\u77db\u76fe\u4ee5\u53ca\u91cd\u65b0\u5283\u5b9a\u5340\u57df\u653f\u6cbb\u7248\u5716\u3002\u6b63\u5982Horowitz (1985: 598)\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u4e3b\u7fa9\u80fd\u7522\u751f\uff15\u7a2e\u885d\u7a81\u7de9\u885d\u6a5f\u5236\uff1a\uff08\uff11\uff09\u5c0d\u885d\u7a81\u71b1\u9ede\u9032\u884c\u6e1b\u58d3\uff1b\uff08\uff12\uff09\u5c07\u6b0a\u529b\u4e0b\u653e\u81f3\u5c11\u6578\u65cf\u88d4\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff1b\uff08\uff13\uff09\u63d0\u4f9b\u6c11\u65cf\u5718\u7d50\u7684\u8a98\u56e0\uff1b\uff08\uff14\uff09\u5c07\u65cf\u88d4\u77db\u76fe\u63a7\u5236\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\uff1b\u548c\uff08\uff15\uff09\u52aa\u529b\u6e1b\u5c11\u65cf\u88d4\u9593\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u548c\u5dee\u7570\u3002\u4f46\u986f\u800c\u6613\u898b\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e26\u975e\u9748\u4e39\u5999\u864a\u3002\u5b83\u6709\u6210\u529f\u4e5f\u6709\u5931\u6557\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><strong>\u884c\u653f\u5236\u5ea6<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u7576\u8003\u616e\u5230\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u7d50\u69cb\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u6642\u6709\u4e00\u9ede\u9700\u8981\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u64c1\u6709\u9435\u8155\u7e3d\u7d71\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u6bd4\u4e00\u500b\u64c1\u6709\u8b70\u6703\u5236\u800c\u5176\u4e2d\u738b\u5ba4\u6210\u54e1\u6216\u9818\u8896\u4e26\u7121\u592a\u5927\u5be6\u6b0a\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u66f4\u6b20\u7f3a\u7a69\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u524d\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e00\u570b\u5143\u9996\u96c6\u570b\u5bb6\u9818\u8896\u7684\u7a31\u865f\uff0c\u6b0a\u529b\u8c61\u5fb5\u548c\u5be6\u6b0a\u65bc\u4e00\u8eab\uff0c\u800c\u5f8c\u8005\u9019\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u662f\u5206\u5c6c\u65bc\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u5047\u5982\u4e00\u570b\u5143\u9996\u7368\u652c\u5927\u6b0a\uff0c\u516c\u773e\u5c07\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u5c0d\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u7684\u57cb\u6028\u548c\u5c0d\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u4e0d\u6eff\u6df7\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u53c8\u4e8c\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u62c9\u7f8e\u7e3d\u7d71\u5236\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u5efa\u8a2d\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u554f\u984c\u5145\u5206\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u56f0\u5c40\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u5448\u73fe\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u7279\u5225\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u91cc\u5118\u7ba1\u6b0a\u529b\u8c61\u5fb5\u548c\u5be6\u6b0a\u96c6\u65bc\u7e3d\u7d71\u4e00\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u537b\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u88ab\u610f\u8b58\u5f62\u614b\u795e\u8056\u5316\u7684\u5baa\u5236\u80fd\u4e00\u76f4\u6709\u6548\u904b\u884c\u8d85\u904e\uff12\uff10\uff10\u5e74\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u5baa\u5236\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u638c\u6b0a\u548c\u5728\u4f4d\u8005\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u6b0a\u529b\u7684\u6700\u7d42\u4ee3\u8868\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\uff08\u6cd5\u5f8b\u548c\u7406\u6027\u7684\uff09\u5baa\u5236\u4e0a\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u9700\u8981\u591a\u5e74\u624d\u80fd\u767c\u5c55\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u8a72\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u5728\u5176\u5167\u6230\uff08the Civil War\uff09\u524d\u66fe\u767c\u751f\u904e\u591a\u6b21\u5206\u96e2\u904b\u52d5\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff11\uff18\uff11\uff12\u5e74\u5728\u65b0\u82f1\u683c\u862d\u5dde\uff0c\uff11\uff18\uff13\uff12\u5e74\u5728\u5357\u5361\u7f85\u840a\u7d0d\u5dde\uff0c\u548c\u5728\uff11\uff18\uff14\uff10\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e3b\u5f35\u5ee2\u9664\u5974\u96b6\u5236\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\u5c0d\u6297\u7576\u6642\u4ecd\u5805\u6301\u5974\u96b6\u5236\u5408\u6cd5\u5316\u7684\u5baa\u6cd5\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u5167\u6230\u53ca\u5176\u5f8c\u7684\u9577\u671f\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u4ee4\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5baa\u5236\u653f\u6b0a\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3002<\/div><div>Linz (1990 a; 1990 b) \u548c Riggs (1993)\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u8a8d\u53ef\u8b70\u6703\u5236\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\u884c\u653f\u6b0a\u529b\u662f\u5206\u6563\u5728\u8b70\u6703\u5167\u95a3\u5404\u500b\u6210\u54e1\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5167\u95a3\u6210\u54e1\u90fd\u5728\u7acb\u6cd5\u6a5f\u69cb\u4e2d\u4ee3\u8868\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6c11\u773e\u968e\u5c64\u548c\u9ee8\u6d3e\u3002\u5f9e\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7576\u6b0a\u529b\u96c6\u4e2d\u65bc\u4e00\u4eba\u4e4b\u624b\u6642\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u5167\u95a3\u6210\u54e1\uff08\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u8207\u9818\u8896\u540c\u5c6c\u4e00\u500b\u9ee8\u6d3e\u7684\u4eba\uff09\u90fd\u5c0d\u9019\u500b\u653f\u6b0a\u6b20\u7f3a\u5fe0\u8aa0\u548c\u4e0d\u6703\u8a8d\u540c\u5176\u653f\u7b56\u3002Linz\u6279\u8a55\u904e\u9019\u7a2e\u7e3d\u7d71\u5236\u7684\u50f5\u5316\u548c\u4f60\u6b7b\u6211\u6d3b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7279\u8272\u3002\u4ed6\u548cRiggs\u90fd\u5805\u4fe1\u96b1\u85cf\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u7e3d\u7d71\u5236\u5167\u90e8\u7684\u75c5\u75c7\u80fd\u591f\u89e3\u91cb\u70ba\u4f55\u5728\u62c9\u7f8e\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u591a\u6b21\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5931\u6557\u53f2\u3002<\/div><div>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u8faf\u8ad6\u7684(Lipset 1990 a; Horowitz 1990)\u3002\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4e8c\u6230\u524d\u5728\u5fb7\u570b\uff0c\u610f\u5927\u5229\uff0c\u897f\u73ed\u7259\uff0c\u548c\u6771\u6b50\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u8b70\u6703\u5236\u90fd\u5931\u6557\u4e86\u3002\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff15\uff18\u5e74\uff0c\u67e5\u723e\u65af&#8231;\u6234\u9ad8\u6a02\uff08Charles de Gaulle\uff09\u66fe\u5c07\u7b2c\u4e09\u548c\u7b2c\u56db\u6cd5\u862d\u897f\u5171\u548c\u570b\u7684\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u6b78\u548e\u65bc\u591a\u9ee8\u8b70\u6703\u5236\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u5171\u548c\u570b\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u77ed\u547d\u548c\u7121\u6548\u7387\u7684\u5167\u95a3\u3002\u70ba\u4e86\u6539\u8b8a\u73fe\u72c0\uff0c\u6234\u9ad8\u6a02\u5f15\u9032\u4e86\u5982\u4e0b\u4e00\u7a2e\u5236\u5ea6\uff1a\u4e00\u500b\u5f37\u529b\u7e3d\u7d71\u540c\u6642\u8207\u7e3d\u7406\u548c\u7acb\u6cd5\u6a5f\u69cb\u5206\u4eab\u7ba1\u6cbb\u6b0a\u3002\u5728\u6cd5\u570b\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6539\u9769\u8209\u63aa\u78ba\u5be6\u7522\u751f\u4e86\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u548c\u9577\u6cbb\u4e45\u5b89\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\u3002\u5728\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u806f\u90a6\uff08Russian Federation\uff09\uff0c\u7531\u8449\u5229\u6b3d\uff08Yeltsin\uff09\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff13\u5e74\uff11\uff12\u6708\u5236\u5b9a\u7684\u65b0\u5baa\u6cd5\u91cc\u4e5f\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6539\u9769\u5617\u8a66\u3002<\/div><div>\u5c0d\u7e3d\u7d71\u5236\u548c\u8b70\u6703\u5236\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\u7684\u5c0d\u6bd4\u8a55\u4f30\u5fc5\u9808\u8003\u616e\u5169\u8005\u7684\u6027\u8cea\u3002\u5728\u7e3d\u7d71\u5236\u653f\u6b0a\u4e2d\uff0c\u7acb\u6cd5\uff0c\u52d5\u7528\u7d93\u8cbb\u548c\u64a5\u6b3e\uff0c\u548c\u9032\u884c\u9ad8\u5c64\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\u4efb\u547d\u90fd\u662f\u53ea\u9650\u65bc\u7e3d\u7d71\u548c\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u5169\u500b\u7acb\u6cd5\u6a5f\u69cb\u9593\u7684\u8077\u8cac\u3002\u4f46\u8b70\u6703\u5236\u653f\u6b0a\u5247\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5404\u6a5f\u69cb\u7d71\u4e00\u548c\u4e92\u88dc\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u7e3d\u7406\u548c\u5167\u95a3\u80fd\u6309\u6cd5\u5f8b\u9032\u884c\u4ed6\u5011\u76f8\u61c9\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u7531\u7e3d\u7406\u548c\u8b70\u6703\u7d44\u6210\u7684\u8b70\u6703\u5236\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\u901a\u5e38\u53ef\u898b\u65bc\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u7684\u82f1\u806f\u90a6\u548c\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u662f\u6bd4\u5f9e\u7e3d\u7d71\u63d0\u8b70\u5f8c\u7531\u570b\u6703\u8655\u7406\u7684\u7e3d\u7d71\u5236\u66f4\u5f37\u5927\u548c\u4e0d\u53d7\u675f\u7e1b(Lijphart 1984: 4-20)\u3002\u524d\u8005\u7684\u9019\u7a2e\u770b\u4f3c\u5f31\u5c0f\u548c\u6b0a\u529b\u5206\u6563\u7684\u653f\u5236\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u5df2\u7d93\u7531\u4f86\u5df2\u4e45\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5b83\u5728\u5176\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u4e5f\u66fe\u51fa\u73fe\u4e0d\u5c11\u632b\u6298\u548c\u6df7\u4e82\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u8b70\u6703\u5236\u66fe\u5728\u62c9\u7f8e\u4e0d\u65b7\u53d7\u632b\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u6709\u4eba\u66fe\u63d0\u51fa\u53cd\u99c1\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u7a2e\u73fe\u8c61\u7684\u767c\u751f\u4e26\u975e\u56e0\u70ba\u90a3\u91cc\u7684\u5baa\u5236\u6709\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u90a3\u91cc\u7684\u6587\u5316\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u751f\u7522\u529b\u4f4e\u4e0b\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u3002\u6b64\u524d\u5f88\u591a\u8b70\u6703\u5236\u653f\u6b0a\u4e5f\u56e0\u70ba\u7121\u6cd5\u9078\u51fa\u80fd\u4f54\u6709\u8b70\u6703\u591a\u6578\u8b70\u5e2d\u7684\u9ee8\u6d3e\u800c\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002\u8209\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5728\uff17\u500b\u524d\u6771\u6b50\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u570b\u5bb6\u91cc\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u963f\u723e\u5df4\u5c3c\u4e9e\u9078\u51fa\u4e86\u8b70\u6703\u4e2d\u7684\u591a\u6578\u9ee8\u3002\u5728\u6ce2\u862d\uff0c\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff11\u5e74\u7684\u6642\u5019\u6709\uff12\uff19\u500b\u9ee8\u6d3e\u5728\u8b70\u6703\u91cc\u5206\u4eab\u8b70\u5e2d(Economist 1993 a: 5)\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff13\u5e74\u7684\u5927\u9078\u5f8c\u6e1b\u5c11\u5230\u4e86\u53ea\u6709\uff17\u500b\u9ee8\u6d3e\u3002\u5728\u8449\u5229\u6b3d\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff13\u5e74\uff11\uff12\u6708\u7684\u9078\u8209\u6539\u9769\u524d\uff0c\u5728\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u4eba\u6c11\u4ee3\u8868\u5927\u6703\uff08Russian Congress of People&#8217;s Deputies\uff09\u91cc\u6709\uff11\uff14\u500b\u9ee8\u6d3e\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u9ee8\u6d3e\u5404\u6709\uff14\uff18\u4eba\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4f5c\u70ba\u5927\u6703\u4ee3\u8868\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\uff11\uff19\uff19\u500b\u7121\u9ee8\u6d3e\u4ee3\u8868(Economist 1993 b: 59)\u3002\u540c\u6642\u6709\uff11\uff12\u500b\u9ee8\u6d3e\u5728\u65b0\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u675c\u99ac\uff08Duma\uff09\u4e2d\u4f54\u6709\u8b70\u5e2d\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\uff11\uff12\uff10\u500b\u7368\u7acb\u4ee3\u8868\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u60c5\u6cc1\u7a76\u7adf\u6703\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u4e4b\u6578\u3002\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u6b62\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u8005\u4e2d\u5c0d\u65bc\u5169\u7a2e\u653f\u5236\uff08\u7e3d\u7d71\u6216\u8b70\u6703\u5236\uff09\u7a76\u7adf\u8ab0\u597d\u8ab0\u58de\u7684\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u7522\u751f\u5171\u8b58\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5169\u7a2e\u653f\u5236\u90fd\u66fe\u5728\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u5236\u9020\u904e\u4e0d\u5c11\u5931\u6557\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><strong>\u9078\u8209\u5236\u5ea6<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u9078\u8209\u548c\u66f4\u63db\u884c\u653f\u4eba\u54e1\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e5f\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u653f\u6b0a\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u5316(Lipset 1979: 293-306)\u3002\u9078\u8209\u5236\u5ea6\u80fd\u7d66\u4e88\u9078\u6c11\u4ee5\u6709\u6548\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f86\u66f4\u63db\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u5c07\u73fe\u4efb\u7684\u638c\u6b0a\u8005\u6dd8\u6c71\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u5236\u5ea6\u80fd\u4fdd\u8b49\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7a69\u5b9a\uff1b\u9078\u8209\u5236\u5ea6\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u64c1\u6709\u9078\u8209\u6cd5\u898f\uff0c\u6b0a\u529b\u5206\u914d\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u548c\u51fd\u9700\u6539\u9769\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u66f4\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u8a8d\u53ef\u548c\u63a5\u53d7\u3002<\/div><div>\u9078\u8209\u5236\u5ea6\u6ce8\u91cd\u55ae\u4e00\u9ee8\u6d3e\u7684\u5340\u57df\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u7684\u82f1\u806f\u90a6\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u5b83\u80fd\u8b93\u9078\u6c11\u5728\u5169\u500b\u9ee8\u6d3e\u9593\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u9078\u6c11\u61c2\u5f97\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u6eff\u73fe\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u9078\u64c7\u5176\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u3002\u5728\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u9ee8\u6d3e\u90fd\u662f\u591a\u5143\u6df7\u96dc\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u9078\u6c11\u90fd\u6703\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u9078\u64c7&#8220;\u4e0d\u90a3\u9ebc\u58de\u7684\u653f\u9ee8&#8221;\uff08lesser evil\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u627f\u8afe\u9006\u8f49\u73fe\u4efb\u653f\u9ee8\u7684\u8def\u7dda\uff0c\u638c\u6b0a\u7684\u9ee8\u6d3e\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u5176\u5728\u4efb\u6642\u5be6\u884c\u7684\u4e0d\u53d7\u6b61\u8fce\u653f\u7b56\u6216\u793e\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u4e0d\u548c\u8ae7\u72c0\u6cc1\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u9078\u6c11\u7684\u61f2\u7f70\u3002<\/div><div>\u5728\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ee3\u8868\u5236\uff08systems with proportional representation\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u9078\u6c11\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u591f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u67b6\u69cb\u3002\u5728\u9019\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u653f\u9ee8\u53ea\u80fd\u6309\u7167\u5b83\u5011\u6240\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u9078\u7968\u4f86\u78ba\u5b9a\u5176\u5728\u8b70\u6703\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5e2d\u4f4d\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ee3\u8868\u5236\u5728\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u548c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u7684\u524d\u5e0c\u7279\u52d2\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u5fb7\u570b\uff0c\u524d\u6cd5\u897f\u65af\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u610f\u5927\u5229\u548c\u7576\u6642\u5927\u591a\u6578\u7684\u6771\u6b50\u570b\u5bb6\u5be6\u884c\u904e\u3002\u5b83\u73fe\u6642\u4ecd\u7136\u5728\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\uff0c\u610f\u5927\u5229\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\uff0c\u5317\u6b50\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u7684\u6771\u6b50\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u806f\u90a6\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u5340\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u653f\u9ee8\u53ef\u4ee5\u58df\u65b7\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u9ee8\u6d3e\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e92\u76f8\u7d50\u76df\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u806f\u5408\u653f\u5e9c\u5167\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u9078\u7968\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u9078\u8209\u5f8c\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u51fa\u65b0\u7684\u5167\u95a3\u3002\u5c0f\u578b\uff0c\u5584\u65bc\u6355\u6349\u6a5f\u6703\u548c\u6709\u91ce\u5fc3\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0d\u6b0a\u529b\u7684\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u5927\u9078\u5f8c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u67b6\u69cb\u7522\u751f\u8209\u8db3\u8f15\u91cd\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u5728\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ee3\u8868\u5236\u4e2d\uff0c\u5176\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u548c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u5f0a\u7aef\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f9e\u8a2d\u7acb\u6700\u5c11\u9078\u8209\u4ee3\u8868\u5236\uff08a minimum vote for representation\uff09\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u8212\u7de9\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u767e\u4efd\u4e4b\u4e94\u7684\u8b70\u5e2d\u9650\u5236\u3002\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u9078\u8209\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u55ae\u4e00\u9078\u5340\uff08single-member districts\uff09\u6216\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ee3\u8868\u5236\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u78ba\u4fdd\u7531\u4f55\u7a2e\u9ee8\u6d3e\u52dd\u51fa\u7684\u9078\u8209\u7d50\u679c(Lipset 1979: 293-306; Gladdish 1993)\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><strong>\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703\u548c\u653f\u9ee8<\/strong><\/div><div><strong>\u4f5c\u70ba\u653f\u6cbb\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u6bd4\u80fd\u4fc3\u9032\u653f\u6cbb\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u9078\u8209\u5236\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703&#8212;\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u5404\u7a2e\u5404\u6a23\u7684&#8220;\u5354\u8abf\u6027\u5236\u5ea6&#8221;\uff08mediating institutions\uff09\uff0c\u5305\u62ec&#8220;\u7fa4\u7d44\uff0c\u5a92\u9ad4\u548c\u7db2\u7d61&#8221; (Diamond 1993 b: 4)\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5236\u5ea6\u5728\u500b\u4eba\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u9593\u7368\u7acb\u5730\u904b\u884c\u3002\u5b83\u5011\u90fd\u662f&#8220;\u53e6\u985e\u7684\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u53cd\u5c0d\u548c\u6311\u6230\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u653f\u6b0a&#8221;(Gellner 1991: 500)\u3002\uff14\uff10\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u66fe\u7d93\u9996\u6b21\u5617\u8a66\u5c0d&#8220;\u6709\u5229\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u56e0\u7d20&#8221;(Lipset, Trow, and Coleman 1956: 15)\u9032\u884c\u904e\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703\u3002\u6211\u7559\u610f\u5230&#8220;\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u9f90\u5927\u800c\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u793e\u6703\u91cc\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u516c\u6c11\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u53bb\u5f71\u97ff\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u570b\u516c\u6c11\u4e0d\u5c6c\u65bc\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u6cbb\u5718\u9ad4\u548c\u4ed6\u5011\u90fd\u662f\u5206\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u570b\u5bb6\u638c\u6b0a\u8005\u5c07\u6703\u8f15\u800c\u6613\u8209\u5730\u64cd\u63a7\u6574\u500b\u793e\u6703&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff11\uff15\uff09\u3002<\/div><div>\u516c\u6c11\u5718\u9ad4\u5fc5\u9808\u6210\u70ba\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u7684\u5805\u6c7a\u64c1\u8b77\u8005\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u653f\u9ee8\u90fd\u662f\u4f5c\u70ba\u73fe\u4ee3\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u5fc5\u9808\u689d\u4ef6\u53ca\u5176\u5b9a\u7fa9\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u4efd\u3002\u6b63\u5982Merkl (1993)\u66fe\u7d93\u91cd\u63d0\u904e\u7684Schumpeter (1950)\u7684\u7cbe\u78ba\u8ad6\u65b7\uff0c&#8220;\u653f\u9ee8\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u4f86\u90fd\u662f\u4fc3\u9032\u6c11\u610f\uff0c\u7522\u751f\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u7684\u9078\u8209\u7d50\u679c\u548c\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u4f5c\u51fa\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6709\u6548\u5de5\u5177&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff12\uff15\uff17\uff0d\uff15\uff18\uff09\u3002\u6216\u5982Weffort (1992)\u6240\u8a00\uff1a&#8220;\u6c11\u4e3b\u5efa\u8a2d\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5728\u6709\u5e8f\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u5167\u7522\u751f\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u904e\u7a0b&#8221;\uff08Democracy-building is a process of. . . institutionalizing conflict\uff09\uff08\u9801\uff11\uff11\uff11\uff09\u3002<\/div><div>\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u5c0d\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703\u7684\u91cd\u8996\u61c9\u8a72\u611f\u8b1d\u6258\u514b\u7dad\u723e\uff08\uff11\uff19\uff17\uff16\uff09\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\uff11\uff19\u4e16\u7d00\u521d\u5df2\u7d93\u7559\u610f\u5230\u70ba\u4f55\u773e\u591a\u516c\u6c11\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u80fd\u4ee4\u5230\u7576\u6642\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u6bd4\u6b50\u6d32\u5f37\u5927\u3002 \u3000\u4ed6\u5c0d\u6b64\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff1a\u3000<\/div><div>\u4eba\u6c11\u5fc5\u9808\u4e86\u89e3\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u5927\u578b\u548c\u4eba\u6578\u773e\u591a\u7684\u7d44\u7e54\u91cc\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u78ba\u4fdd\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u662f\u5426\u90fd\u80fd\u4ee5\u5176\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u70ba\u8a72\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u9032\u6b65\u4f5c\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8ca2\u737b. . . .\u9019\u4e9b\u653f\u6cbb\u7d44\u7e54\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u5927\u578b\u7684\u514d\u8cbb\u5b78\u6821\uff0c\u5b78\u54e1\u5011\u5728\u9019\u91cc\u5b78\u7fd2\u7d44\u7e54\u5167\u90e8\u7684\u7406\u8ad6. . . . (vol. 2: 116) \u5404\u500b\u968e\u5c64\uff0c\u80cc\u666f\u548c\u5e74\u9f61\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u5728\u5176\u6240\u5c6c\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7d44\u7e54\u91cc\u90fd\u57f9\u990a\u4e86\u4e00\u7a2e\u5c0d\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u611f\u60c5\u548c\u6b78\u5c6c. . . .\u9019\u4e9b\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u76f8\u4e92\u555f\u767c\u548c\u5f71\u97ff\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u5176\u5f8c\u6703\u628a\u5728\u7d44\u7e54\u91cc\u5b78\u5230\u7684\u5c0d\u4eba\u6b0a\u548c\u516c\u6c11\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u793e\u6703\u548c\u4ee5\u9019\u4e9b\u7406\u5ff5\u4f5c\u70ba\u5176\u884c\u52d5\u7684\u6307\u5f15\u3002(vol. 2, 119)<\/div><div>\u4e00\u500b\u904b\u884c\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703\u4e5f\u6703\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5177\u53c3\u8207\u6027\u7684\u7d44\u7e54\u3002\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u5404\u500b\u7d44\u7e54\u91cc\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u884c\u52d5\u80fd\u8d77\u5230\u555f\u767c\u548c\u5f71\u97ff\u5176\u570b\u5bb6\u653f\u9ad4\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u653f\u6b0a\u9700\u8981\u8207\u9019\u4e9b\u7d44\u7e54\u5354\u5546\u548c\u8a0e\u8ad6\u5176\u5c07\u8981\u5be6\u65bd\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u4e9b\u7d44\u7e54\u5c07\u6703\u628a\u9019\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u53cd\u994b\u5176\u516c\u6c11\u3002\u516c\u6c11\u7d44\u7e54\u80fd\u591f\u6e1b\u5c11\u4eba\u6c11\u5c0d\u653f\u6b0a\u8b8a\u9077\u7684\u53cd\u6297\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u7d44\u7e54\u53ef\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u653f\u6b0a\uff0c\u653f\u5236\u548c\u4eba\u6c11\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u9694\u96e2\uff0c\u548c\u5354\u8abf\uff08\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u8a8d\u8b58\u5230\uff09\u5404\u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u89c0\u9ede\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/div><div>Schumpeter (1950)\u5c0d\u653f\u9ee8\u4f5c\u70ba\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u89c0\u9ede\u503c\u5f97\u7559\u610f\uff0c\u5373\u6c11\u4e3b\u50f9\u503c\u548c\u6b0a\u5229\u7684\u6f14\u8b8a\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u901a\u904e\u793e\u6703\u4e0a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7fa4\u9ad4\u9593\u7684\u4e92\u52d5\u800c\u5411\u524d\u9032\u5316\u3002\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u4e2d\uff0c\u8207\u70ba\u4e86\u8b00\u6c42\u7368\u88c1\u653f\u6b0a\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5404\u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7fa4\u9ad4\uff0c\u968e\u5c64\uff0c\u5b97\u6559\u5718\u9ad4\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u5c08\u696d\u7d44\u7e54\u90fd\u76f8\u4e92\u7af6\u722d\u548c\u8207\u570b\u5bb6\u9032\u884c\u7af6\u722d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u70ba\u7684\u662f\u5927\u773e\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u548c\u5229\u7528\u7af6\u722d\u5f97\u4f86\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u53bb\u9054\u81f4\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8a2d\u60f3\u3002\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u7d44\u7e54\u5fc5\u9808\u5c0d\u5b83\u5011\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5408\u6cd5\u5316\uff0c\u8981\u505a\u5230\u9019\u9ede\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u5bb9\u8a31\u4e26\u9f13\u52f5\u5176\u4ed6\u7d44\u7e54\u6709\u6b0a\u53bb\u53cd\u5c0d\u5b83\u5011\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u70ba\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u57fa\u790e\u3002\u901a\u904e\u9019\u4e9b\u7d44\u7e54\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u4e92\u52d5\uff0c\u885d\u7a81\u548c\u5176\u5404\u5f0f\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u4ea4\u92d2\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u5c07\u5275\u9020\u51fa\u570b\u5bb6\u653f\u6b0a\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u653f\u6cbb\u7a7a\u9593\u548c\u53d6\u5f97\u5c0d\u793e\u6703\u7684\u8a71\u4e8b\u6b0a\u3002<\/div><div>\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6975\u6b0a\u5236\u5ea6\u4e26\u6ca1\u6709\u6709\u6548\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u5718\u7d44\u7e54\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u5236\u5ea6\u4f01\u5716\u6d88\u6ec5\u4efb\u4f55\u5728\u500b\u4eba\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u4e4b\u9593\u9032\u884c\u65a1\u65cb\u7684\u6c11\u9593\u5718\u9ad4\u548c\u64cd\u63a7\u5b83\u5011\u5f9e\u800c\u4ee4\u5230\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u6027\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u505a\u53ea\u6703\u4ee4\u5230\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u6210\u70ba\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u5718\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u6e1b\u5f31\u548c\u524a\u5f31\u500b\u9ad4\u7684\u5275\u9020\u6027\u6d3b\u52d5\u80fd\u529b(Tocqueville [1976, vol. 2: 124])\u3002\u5728\u897f\u65b9\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u662f\u5efa\u57fa\u5728\u4e00\u5927\u6279\u591a\u5143\u5316\u7684\u7fa4\u9ad4\u7d44\u7e54\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u7fa4\u9ad4\u7d44\u7e54\u4e0a\u7522\u751f\u4e86\u5404\u7a2e\u5404\u6a23\u7684\u9ee8\u5718\u6d3e\u7cfb\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5de5\u6703\uff0c\u6c11\u65cf\u548c\u5b97\u6559\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u8fb2\u696d\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u9000\u4f0d\u8ecd\u4eba\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u7b49\u7b49\uff09\u3002\u5e78\u904b\u5730\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u5728\u524d\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e16\u754c\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u65b0\u751f\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\uff0c\u667a\u5229\uff0c\u5357\u97d3\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u548c\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u6975\u6b0a\u793e\u6703\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u90fd\u66fe\u5728\u5176\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6642\u4ee3\u5df2\u7d93\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u591a\u5143\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703(Scalapino 1989)\u3002\u6211\u5011\u9700\u8981\u9f13\u52f5\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u5efa\u7acb\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8af8\u5982\u6b64\u985e\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u5718\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u9019\u4e9b\u793e\u5718\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u9818\u8896\u90fd\u8072\u7a31\u5176\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u6210\u7acb&#8220;\u5728\u9019\u6bb5\u653f\u6cbb\u8f49\u578b\u671f\u4e4b\u4e2d\u53ea\u662f\u50c5\u50c5\u80fd\u591f\u4fc3\u9032\u6c11\u4e3b\u800c\u5df2&#8221;(Weffort 1992: 12)\u3002<\/div><div>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6771\u6b50\u548c\u524d\u8607\u806f\u570b\u5bb6\u73fe\u5728\u6b63\u9762\u81e8\u4e00\u500b\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u5373\u7f3a\u4e4f\u4e00\u500b\u73fe\u4ee3\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u7f3a\u5931\u5c0e\u81f4\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u5f88\u96e3\u5c07\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u67d0\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6ce2\u862d\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u901a\u904e\u6559\u6703\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u81ea\u6cbb\u548c\u975e\u6cd5\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u4ecd\u7121\u6cd5\u901a\u904e\u5efa\u7acb\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u5718\u4f86\u7de0\u9020\u7a4f\u5b9a\u653f\u6cbb\u9ee8\u6d3e(Sadowski 1993: 171-80)\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5f9e\u4e00\u7121\u6240\u6709\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u4e0a\u5275\u5efa\u653f\u9ee8\u3002\u5404\u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u5718\u9ad4\u90fd\u662f\u53cd\u5c0d\u524d\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u7684\u7d71\u6cbb\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u90fd\u7121\u4e00\u4f8b\u5916\u7d93\u6b77\u904e\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6d17\u79ae\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u7d44\u7e54\u56b4\u5bc6\u548c\u64c1\u6709\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u653f\u9ee8\u7d44\u6210\u806f\u76df\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002&#8220;\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u662f\u5206\u5316\u800c\u975e\u978f\u56fa\uff1a\uff16\uff17\u500b\u653f\u9ee8\u5728\u6ce2\u862d\u53c3\u8207\u5927\u9078\uff0c\u5728\u7f85\u99ac\u5c3c\u4e9e\u662f\uff17\uff14\u500b&#8221;(Economist 1993 a: 4)\u3002\u5176\u7d50\u679c\u662f\uff0c\u524d\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\uff08\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u793e\u6703\u9ee8\uff09\u88ab\u63a8\u9078\u6210\u70ba\u8b70\u6703\u4e2d\u7684\u591a\u6578\u9ee8\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u7acb\u9676\u5b9b\uff0c\u6216\u6210\u70ba\u806f\u5408\u5167\u95a3\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u5927\u653f\u9ee8\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u6ce2\u862d\u3002\u5728\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff12\u5e74\uff11\u6708\uff0c\u4fdd\u52a0\u5229\u4e9e\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u5f97\u5230\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u652f\u6301\u7684\u7e3d\u7d71\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u62ff\u4e0b\u4e86\u767e\u4efd\u4e4b\u56db\u5341\u4e09\u7684\u9078\u7968(Malia 1992: 73)\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u7684\u7522\u751f\u7576\u7136\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u8a08\u5283\u7d93\u6fdf\u5411\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u8b8a\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u8271\u96e3\u548c\u793e\u6703\u72c0\u6cc1\u7684\u666e\u904d\u60e1\u5316\u6240\u5c0e\u81f4\u3002<\/div><div>\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\u4e5f\u986f\u793a\u51fa\u5728\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff14\uff15\u81f3\uff17\uff15\u5e74\u7d71\u6cbb\u4e0b\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u6548\u61c9\u3002\u5728\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6771\u6b50\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1\u767e\u4efd\u4e4b\u4e03\u5341\u7684\u53d7\u8a2a\u516c\u6c11\u90fd\u8a8d\u540c&#8220;\u570b\u5bb6\u5fc5\u9808\u63d0\u4f9b\u5c31\u696d\uff0c\u91ab\u7642\u670d\u52d9\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\uff0c\u6559\u80b2\uff0c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u8a2d\u65bd&#8221;(Economist 1993 a: 5)\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u80fd\u5426\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u7372\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u5927\u591a\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u5176\u516c\u6c11\u80fd\u5426\u771f\u6b63\u5730\u8abf\u6574\u81ea\u6211\u53bb\u9069\u61c9\u81ea\u7531\u793e\u6703\uff0c\u62cb\u68c4\u904e\u53bb\u5c0d\u570b\u5bb6\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u548c\u63a5\u53d7\u53cd\u5fa9\u7121\u5e38\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u80fd\u5426\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u6709\u51fa\u8272\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u3002Garton Ash (1990)\uff0cKohik (1992)\uff0c\u548cDi Palma (1991) \u90fd\u66fe\u7d93\u5c0d\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u907a\u98a8\u548c\u601d\u7dad\u4f5c\u51fa\u904e\u4ee4\u4eba\u4fe1\u670d\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff0c\u5308\u7259\u5229\u653f\u6cbb\u5bb6\u548c\u5b78\u8005Tamh (1992)\u5247\u70ba\u6b64\u5beb\u9053\uff1a<\/div><div>\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u8abf\u67e5\u548c\u6295\u7968\u6578\u64da\u90fd\u986f\u793a\u6211\u5011\u5730\u5340\u7684\u516c\u773e\u53cd\u5c0d\u7368\u88c1\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u4e0d\u7d04\u800c\u540c\u5730\u5e0c\u671b\u4e00\u500b\u5f37\u4eba\u4f86\u57f7\u653f\uff1b\u64c1\u8b77\u6c11\u9078\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u75db\u6068\u8b70\u6703\uff0c\u653f\u9ee8\u548c\u5a92\u9ad4\uff1b\u559c\u6b61\u793e\u6703\u798f\u5229\u7acb\u6cd5\u548c\u5e73\u7b49\u539f\u5247\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u6392\u65a5\u5de5\u6703\uff1b\u5e0c\u671b\u63a8\u7ffb\u73fe\u6709\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u4f46\u537b\u4e0d\u9858\u610f\u770b\u5230\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff1b\u652f\u6301\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u6982\u5ff5\uff08\u9019\u5c0d\u65bc\u4ed6\u5011\u800c\u8a00\u53ea\u662f\u897f\u65b9\u5f0f\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u4ee3\u540d\u8a5e\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u52ab\u5bcc\u6fdf\u8ca7\u548c\u5c0d\u9280\u884c\u5728\u52de\u82e6\u5927\u773e\u8eab\u4e0a\u8b00\u53d6\u66b4\u5229\u800c\u4e0d\u9f52\uff1b\u8981\u6c42\u7acb\u6cd5\u5236\u5b9a\u6700\u4f4e\u5de5\u8cc7\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u8a8d\u70ba\u5931\u696d\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u9053\u5fb7\u4e0a\u7684\u4e11\u884c\u548c\u5e0c\u671b\u61f2\u7f78\u548c\u6392\u65a5\u5931\u696d\u8005\u3002(\u980173)<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><strong>\u4f5c\u70ba\u5354\u8abf\u8005\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u9ee8\u6d3e<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u653f\u9ee8\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u5728\u516c\u6c11\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u4e4b\u9593\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5354\u8abf\u6a5f\u69cb(Lipset 1993)\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u7a4f\u5b9a\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u689d\u4ef6\u662f\u5176\u6709\u7740\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7fa4\u773e\u652f\u6301\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u653f\u9ee8\u7684\u9577\u671f\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u800c\u9019\u7a2e\u652f\u6301\u662f\u4e0d\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u653f\u9ee8\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u7684\u5931\u6557\u800c\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u5047\u5982\u9019\u7a2e\u652f\u6301\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u653f\u9ee8\u5c31\u6703\u6c38\u4e45\u5730\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u4e0d\u518d\u7522\u751f\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u5728\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u4ecd\u7136\u4fdd\u6301\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u5f37\u6709\u529b\u7684\u53cd\u5c0d\u9ee8\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5b83\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u4f86\u5728\u9078\u6c11\u4e2d\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u5b83\u5728\u4f5c\u70ba\u57f7\u653f\u9ee8\u6642\u570b\u5bb6\u6b63\u906d\u9047\u5927\u856d\u689d\u6642\u671f\u548c\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u5931\u696d\uff0c\u7834\u7522\uff0c\u548c\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0d\u7a69\u7b49\u524d\u6240\u672a\u898b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u96e3\u984c\u3002<\/div><div>\u5047\u8a2d\u5728\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u91cc\uff0c\u653f\u9ee8\u7121\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u6c11\u773e\u7684\u5fe0\u8aa0\u64c1\u8b77\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u53ea\u6703\u7531\u6b64\u6d88\u4ea1\u3002\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u66fe\u8207\u6770\u4f5b\u905c\uff08Jeffersonian\uff09\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u548c\u5171\u548c\u5169\u9ee8\u7af6\u722d\u653f\u58c7\u7684\u6f22\u5bc6\u723e\u9813\u806f\u90a6\u9ee8\uff08The Hamiltonian Federalist party\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\uff11\uff18\uff10\uff10\u5e74\u6642\u7684\u7e3d\u7d71\u9078\u8209\u6642\u843d\u6557\u5f8c\u800c\u8fc5\u901f\u8d70\u5411\u6d88\u4ea1(Lipset 1979: 40-41; Dauer 1953)\u3002\u5728\u5f8c\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u6d3e\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u4f3c\u4e4e\u90fd\u4eab\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6c11\u773e\u652f\u6301&#9472;\u4f8b\u5982\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u9ee8\uff08the Party of Action\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u5f8c\u4f5b\u90de\u54e5\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u66fe\u7d93\u7d44\u6210\u904e\u591a\u6578\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u806f\u76df\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08the Union of the Democratic Center\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u6771\u5fb7\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u806f\u76df\uff08the Civic Union\uff09\uff0c\u6ce2\u862d\u7684\u5718\u7d50\u5de5\u6703\uff08Solidarity\uff09&#9472;\u4f46\u5b83\u5011\u7121\u4e00\u4f8b\u5916\u5728\u5176\u5f8c\u7684\u9078\u8209\u4e2d\u843d\u6557\u6216\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u540c\u985e\u60c5\u6cc1\u5728\u524d\u8607\u806f\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e5f\u767c\u751f\u904e\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u9019\u6a23\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u9700\u8981\u81f3\u5c11\u5169\u500b\u6709\u7740\u5ee3\u6cdb\u9078\u6c11\u652f\u6301\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u53c3\u8207\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u9700\u8981\u6709\u7740\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5f37\u5927\u653f\u9ee8\u53c3\u8207\u548c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u7db1\u548c\u4e92\u76f8\u76e3\u7763\u3002\u5f9e\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e0d\u548c\u8ae7\u548c\u8ca7\u7aae\u7684\u5370\u5ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5176\u516c\u6c11\u5c0d\u7a2e\u59d3\u5236\u5ea6\uff08caste\uff09\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u8a9e\u8a00\u548c\u5b97\u6559\u5718\u9ad4\u7684\u5fe0\u8aa0\uff0c\u7522\u751f\u51fa\u6e90\u65bc\u5c0d\u653f\u9ee8\u7684\u5f37\u6709\u529b\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236(Das Gupta 1989: 95; Diamond 1989 b: 19)\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6613\u8b8a\u6027\u548c\u8150\u6557\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86\u5370\u5ea6\u6c11\u4e3b\u5728\u8cea\u91cf\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0b\u6ed1\u548c\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a(Kohli 1992)\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><strong>\u653f\u6cbb\u9ee8\u6d3e\u7684\u652f\u6301\u4f86\u6e90<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u4e8c\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u548cStein Rokkan\u5617\u8a66\u5c0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u5167\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4f5c\u7cfb\u7d71\u5206\u6790\uff1b\u4ed6\u5c0d\u6b50\u6d32\u653f\u9ee8\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7fa4\u9ad4\u7684\u591a\u6a23\u5316\u9032\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5728\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u653f\u9ee8\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u9078\u6c11\u5206\u985e\u300b\uff08Party Systems and Voter Alignments\uff09\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u73fe\u4ee3\u6b50\u6d32\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u91ce\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6b64\u524d\u7684\u5169\u5927\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u5373\u570b\u5bb6\u9769\u547d\uff08the National Revolution\uff09\u548c\u5de5\u696d\u9769\u547d\uff08the Industrial Revolution\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u7522\u751f\u7684\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u793e\u6703\u8f49\u578b\u5275\u9020\u4e86\u793e\u6703\u5206\u88c2\u5f9e\u800c\u5f71\u97ff\u4e86\u653f\u9ee8\u7684\u591a\u5143\u5316\u548c\u9078\u6c11\u6295\u7968\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u9769\u547d\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5f8c\u679c\u662f\u4e2d\u592e\u548c\u5730\u5340\u9593\u7684\u885d\u7a81\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u6c11\u65cf\uff0c\u8a9e\u8a00\u548c\u5b97\u6559\u5718\u9ad4\uff0c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u908a\u7de3\u793e\u5340\u3002\u9019\u500b\u653f\u6cbb\u9769\u547d\u4e5f\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u6559\u6703\u9593\u7684\u885d\u7a81\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u6703\u5617\u8a66\u64cd\u63a7\u6559\u6703\uff0c\u800c\u6559\u6703\u5247\u5e0c\u671b\u4fdd\u6301\u5176\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u4f86\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u5718\u9ad4\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\u3002\u5de5\u696d\u9769\u547d\u5247\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86\u5de5\u696d\u548c\u8fb2\u696d\uff0c\u571f\u5730\u4e3b\u548c\u65b0\u8208\u8cc7\u7522\u968e\u7d1a\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u5176\u5f8c\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u4fbf\u662f\u99ac\u514b\u601d\u6240\u5f37\u8abf\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u5bb6\u548c\u52de\u5de5\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u9b25\u722d\u3002<\/div><div>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u56db\u7a2e\u885d\u7a81\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\uff08\u4e2d\u592e\u548c\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u6559\u6703\uff0c\u5de5\u696d\u548c\u8fb2\u696d\uff0c\u8cc7\u672c\u5bb6\u548c\u52de\u5de5\uff09\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5728\u7576\u4ee3\u4e16\u754c\u5ef6\u7e8c\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u70ba\u6b64\u7d66\u6c11\u4e3b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u5236\u5ea6\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u6b50\u6d32\u7279\u5225\u660e\u986f\u3002\u968e\u7d1a\u6210\u4e86\u6700\u986f\u8457\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u548c\u7af6\u9078\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u6295\u7968\u6b0a\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3\u5168\u90e8\u7684\u6210\u5e74\u7537\u6027\u7684\u4eca\u5929(Lipset and Rokkan 1967)\u3002\u6258\u514b\u7dad\u723e(1976: vol. 2, 89-93)\u5728\uff11\uff19\u4e16\u7d00\u521d\u548cBryce (1901: 335)\u5728\uff11\uff19\u4e16\u7d00\u672b\u90fd\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u5e95\u5c64\uff0c\u5176\u885d\u7a81\u5b58\u5728\u65bc\u8cb4\u65cf\u968e\u7d1a\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u8a34\u6c42\u4e4b\u9593\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\u7684\uff14\u500b\u885d\u7a81\u56e0\u5b50\u5728\u570b\u969b\u4e0a\u7576\u7136\u662f\u5448\u73fe\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8b8a\u6578(Lipset 1988: 227-66, 1985: 187-252)\u3002\u6709\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u5728\u591a\u9ee8\u5236\u6216\u6fc3\u7e2e\u70ba\u5169\u9ee8\u806f\u76df\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u6fb3\u6d32\u3002\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u897f\u65b9\u793e\u6703\u5728\uff12\uff10\u4e16\u7d00\u4e0a\u534a\u671f\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u5728\u653f\u9ee8\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u8f49\u8b8a\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u5fae\u4e0d\u8db3\u9053\u3002\u897f\u65b9\u793e\u6703\u5728\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u885d\u7a81\u5df2\u8b8a\u5f97\u7cfb\u7d71\u5316\uff0c\u6709\u9ede\u50cf\u4e8c\u6230\u524d\u7684\u4e82\u8c61\u3002\u7576\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8b8a\u5316\u5728\u65bc\u6cd5\u897f\u65af\u904b\u52d5\u7684\u6d88\u5931\u548c\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e2d\u5728\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5d29\u6f70\u524d\u5915\u5176\u4ee3\u8868\u52de\u5de5\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u6210\u70ba\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u5927\u9ee8\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u52de\u5de5\u653f\u9ee8\u81ea\u4e8c\u6230\u5f8c\u7576\u7136\u5f9e\u6b64\u8b8a\u5f97\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u5730\u5f37\u5927\u3002\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u793e\u6703\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u548c\u5df2\u88ab\u524a\u5f31\u7684\u524d\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u90fd\u6539\u8b8a\u5176\u610f\u8b58\u5f62\u614b\u7db1\u9818\uff0c\u8072\u7a31\u8981\u653e\u68c4\u5c0d\u570b\u6709\u5236\u7684\u652f\u6301\u800c\u64c1\u8b77\u5e02\u5834\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u5f0f(Lipset 1991)\u3002<\/div><div>\u81ea\u516d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u4e16\u754c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u9032\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u65b0\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6642\u4ee3\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7279\u5fb5\u662f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e0d\u65b7\u5347\u6e29\u7684\u71b1\u9ede\u8a71\u984c\uff1a&#8220;\u5f8c\u5de5\u696d\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u7269\u8cea\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u74b0\u4fdd\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u6587\u5316\uff0c\u5973\u6027\u548c\u5c11\u6578\u65cf\u88d4\u7684\u5e73\u7b49\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u8cea\u91cf\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u548c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6709\u95dc\u9053\u5fb7\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u5bb6\u5ead\u548c\u6027\u611b\u7684\u8a71\u984c&#8221;(Lipset 1981: 503-21)\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u8b70\u984c\u66fe\u88ab\u4e00\u4e9b\u793e\u6703\u5206\u6790\u5b78\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u5f8c\u5de5\u696d\u9769\u547d\u7684\u5f8c\u679c\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u65b0\u7684\u793e\u6703\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u885d\u7a81\u3002Inglehart (1990)\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5b78\u8005\u66fe\u7d93\u6307\u51fa\u5728\u9019\u500b\u6642\u4ee3\u91cc\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u65b0\u7684\u8de8\u8d8a\u6027\u7684\u885d\u7a81&#9472;\u4f8b\u5982\u5de5\u696d\u548c\u74b0\u4fdd\u9593\u7684\u885d\u7a81&#9472;\u9019\u7a2e\u885d\u7a81\u8868\u73fe\u5728\u5de5\u696d\u793e\u6703\u4e2d\u5f37\u8abf\u751f\u7522\u7684\u4fe1\u5949\u8005\uff08\u9019\u4e9b\u4eba\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u662f\u5728\u5404\u7a2e\u793e\u6703\u8b70\u984c\u4e0a\u7684\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\uff09\u548c\u90a3\u4e9b\u5f37\u8abf\u5f8c\u5de5\u696d\u6642\u4ee3\u61c9\u6ce8\u91cd\u751f\u6d3b\u8cea\u91cf\uff0c\u74b0\u4fdd\uff0c\u5a66\u5973\u5e73\u6b0a\uff0c\u548c\u6838\u80fd\u7684\u64c1\u8b77\u8005\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u653f\u9ee8\u6709\u6642\u5019\u5f88\u96e3\u5c0d\u4f8b\u5982\u751f\u6d3b\u8cea\u91cf\u7b49\u8b70\u984c\u4f5c\u51fa\u898f\u5283\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7da0\u9ee8\u548c\u65b0\u5de6\u6d3e&#9472;\u9019\u4e9b\u64c1\u6709\u5f88\u9ad8\u6559\u80b2\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6210\u54e1\u7684\u7d44\u7e54\u6703\u81f4\u529b\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u4fc3\u9032\u9019\u4e9b\u8b70\u984c\u3002<\/div><div>\u653f\u9ee8\u548c\u793e\u6703\u7684\u4e0d\u548c\u8ae7\u95dc\u4fc2\u5728\u5f8c\u6cd5\u897f\u65af\u653f\u6b0a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u548c\u667a\u5229\uff0c\u7d93\u5e38\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u4f46\u6b63\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e26\u672a\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u7531\u524d\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8f49\u8b8a\u800c\u4f86\u7684&#8220;\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6&#8221;\uff08\u5308\u7259\u5229\u9664\u5916\uff09\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u524d\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u73fe\u5728\u985e\u4f3c\u793e\u6703\u9ee8\uff0c\u800c\u90a3\u4e9b\u975e\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u5247\u7d44\u6210\u4e86\u5404\u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e0d\u7a4f\u5b9a\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u6c11\u7cb9\u548c\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u5730\u65b9\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u548c\u6709\u5b97\u6559\u6027\u8cea\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u3002\u5f8c\u8005\u7f3a\u5c11\u4e00\u8cab\u7684\u9ee8\u653f\u7db1\u9818\u548c\u806f\u4fc2\u53bb\u5316\u89e3\u793e\u6703\u5404\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u5206\u5316\u548c\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u5728\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u50b3\u7d71\u4e0a\u653f\u9ee8\u5206\u5316\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff08\u4e2d\u592e\u548c\u5730\u65b9\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u885d\u7a81\uff09\u6b63\u5728\u6d6e\u73fe\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u662f\u9996\u6b21\u5728\u897f\u65b9\u793e\u6703\u4e2d\u8a94\u751f\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u662f\u6559\u6703\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\uff08\u6216\u6559\u6703\u548c\u4e16\u4fd7\uff09\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e5f\u4ee5\u5404\u6a23\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u986f\u9732\u3002\u800c\u5de5\u8fb2\u696d\uff08\u6216\u57ce\u5e02\u548c\u8fb2\u6751\uff09\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u4e5f\u5f88\u660e\u986f\u3002\u8af7\u523a\u5730\uff0c\u73fe\u6642\u8cc7\u672c\u5bb6\u548c\u52de\u5de5\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u662f\u6700\u4e0d\u986f\u8457\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u4e00\u500b\u8cc7\u7522\u968e\u7d1a\u548c\u4e00\u500b\u7368\u7acb\u548c\u6709\u7d44\u7e54\u7684\u52de\u5de5\u968e\u5c64\u5c1a\u672a\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u9664\u975e\u7a4f\u5b9a\u7684\u653f\u9ee8\u80fd\u591f\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u6709\u7af6\u722d\u6027\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6771\u6b50\u548c\u4e2d\u4e9e\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u9577\u5b58\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6709\u8ff9\u8c61\u986f\u793a\u5728\u5308\u7259\u5229\u548c\u6ce2\u862d\u4e0d\u65b7\u978f\u56fa\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u662f\u5927\u52e2\u6240\u8da8\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><strong>\u6cd5\u6cbb\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u79e9\u5e8f<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u79e9\u5e8f\u548c\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u53ef\u9810\u898b\u6027\u5c0d\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\uff0c\u548c\u793e\u6703\u800c\u8a00\u7686\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u66fe\u7d93\u5728\uff11\uff18\uff16\uff17\u5e74\u4f5c\u70ba\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u806f\u90a6\u6cd5\u7684\u8d77\u8349\u4eba\u5c07\u5baa\u6cd5\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u5b9a\u70ba&#8220;\u548c\u5e73\uff0c\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u548c\u597d\u7684\u653f\u5e9c&#8221;(Lipset 1990 b: xiii)\u3002\u57fa\u672c\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u5236\u5b9a\u5baa\u6cd5\u5728\u65bc\u5efa\u7acb\u6cd5\u6cbb\uff0c\u6b63\u7576\u7684\u7ba1\u6cbb\u7a0b\u5e8f\uff0c\u548c\u4e00\u500b\u7368\u7acb\u53f8\u6cd5\u6a5f\u69cb\u3002\u7576\u6b0a\u529b\u7ba1\u6cbb\u8b8a\u5f97\u5c08\u6a6b\uff0c\u500b\u4eba\u7368\u88c1\uff0c\u548c\u7121\u6cd5\u7121\u5929\u6642\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u570b\u516c\u6c11\u5247\u7121\u6cd5\u61c2\u5f97\u61c9\u5982\u4f55\u5b88\u6cd5\uff1b\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\u6703\u4ee4\u4eba\u7522\u751f\u6050\u60e7\uff0c\u5373\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u884c\u70ba\u90fd\u6703\u6709\u4e0d\u53ef\u9810\u77e5\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u5b8c\u6574\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6cd5\u6cbb\u61c9\u5305\u62ec\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\uff1a\uff08\uff11\uff09\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u9580\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6cd5\u9662\uff0c\u8b66\u5bdf\u5c40\uff0c\u548c\u516c\u52d9\u54e1\u7d44\u7e54\u90fd\u61c9\u5c0d\u500b\u4eba\u548c\u793e\u6703\u5e73\u7b49\u76f8\u5f85\uff1b\uff08\uff12\uff09\u500b\u4eba\u548c\u793e\u6703\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c0d\u5176\u884c\u70ba\u8ca0\u8cac\uff0c\u548c\u5408\u7406\u5730\u9810\u77e5\u5230\u570b\u5bb6\u6703\u5c0d\u5176\u884c\u70ba\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u53cd\u6620\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\uff08World Bank\uff0c1991\uff09\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u66fe\u7d93\u5f37\u8abf\uff1a&#8220;\u5982\u679c\u5728\u4e00\u570b\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\u5546\u52d9\u4ea4\u6613\u98a8\u96aa\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u6709\u6548\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8cbb\u7528\u5f97\u4ee5\u8abf\u4f4e\uff0c\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5e72\u9810\u88ab\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6cd5\u6cbb\u5c31\u662f\u69cb\u7bc9\u9019\u7a2e\u53ef\u9810\u898b\u6027\u548c\u7a4f\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u4e00\u74b0&#8221;(\u9801iii)\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u518d\u4e00\u6b21\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002<\/div><div>\u5728\u63a2\u8a0e\u672c\u6587\u7684\u8b70\u984c&#8220;\u5efa\u7acb\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5148\u6c7a\u793e\u6703\u689d\u4ef6&#8221;\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u66fe\u7d93\u4e0d\u6b62\u4e00\u6b21\u5730\u5f37\u8abf\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5be6\u9a57\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u7d93\u627e\u51fa\u4e86\u5728\u793e\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u56e0\u7d20\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u570b\u6c11\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff0c\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u969c\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u548c\u4eba\u6b0a\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u95dc\u806f(Lipset et al. 1993; Diamond 1992 a; Inkeles 1991; Bollen and Jackman 1985a; Bollen and Jackman 1985b; Bollen 1979; 1980; Flora 1973; Flanigan and Fogelman 197 1; Olsen 1968; Neubauer 1967; Cutright 1963)\u3002<\/div><div>\u6700\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5e74\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5370\u8b49\u5176\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u529f\u80fd\u5c0d\u5176\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u9032\u6b65\u7522\u751f\u5f71\u97ff\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u667a\u5229\uff0c\u897f\u73ed\u7259\uff0c\u5357\u97d3\uff0c\u548c\u53f0\u7063\uff09\u3002\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u90fd\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u500b\u4eba\u5e78\u798f\u6307\u6578\u4e0a\u6709\u6025\u901f\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u4f46\u5b83\u5011\u5728\u9019\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684(Lipset, et al. 1993)\u3002\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u5370\u5ea6\uff0c\u9023\u540c\u535a\u8328\u74e6\u7d0d\uff0c\u5df4\u5e03\u4e9e\u65b0\u5e7e\u5167\u4e9e\uff0c\u548c\u65af\u91cc\u862d\u5361\uff0c\u5247\u8207\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5e74\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u666e\u53ca\u8207\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u4e26\u4e0d\u5339\u914d\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u5927\u591a\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7368\u88c1\u8005\u56e0\u70ba\u5169\u6975\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u6d88\u5931\u518d\u4e5f\u7121\u6cd5\u5229\u7528\u8607\u806f\u548c\u897f\u65b9\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u53d6\u5f97\u5229\u76ca\u6240\u81f4\uff08\u95dc\u65bc\u6c11\u4e3b\u666e\u53ca\uff0c\u53c3\u898bDi Palma 1990: 15-21\uff09\u3002<\/div><div>\u5f88\u660e\u986f\u5730\uff0c\u793e\u6703\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u7684\u95dc\u806f\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u731c\u60f3\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6b77\u53f2\u554f\u984c\u5c0d\u672c\u570b\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5468\u908a\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u7a81\u767c\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f86\u81ea\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u6548\u61c9\uff0c\u5176\u9818\u5c0e\u8005\u7684\u6027\u683c\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u904b\u52d5\u7684\u7279\u8cea\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u7d66\u4e00\u570b\u653f\u9ad4\u7522\u751f\u6df1\u9060\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u5167\u6230\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff08\u90e8\u4efd\u5730\u662f\u7531\u5176\u4ed6\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff09\u662f\u5c07\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u7f6e\u65bc\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u4e2d\uff0c\u9019\u8207\u4e8c\u6230\u5f8c\u5c07\u6771\u6b50\u7f6e\u65bc\u8607\u806f\u7684\u9435\u8e44\u4e0b\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u90fd\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e86\u9019\u4e9b\u5730\u5340\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u800c\u897f\u65b9\u570b\u5bb6\u5247\u6703\u5168\u529b\u5236\u6b62\u9019\u4e9b\u5730\u5340\u8207\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u6709\u7d50\u76df\u95dc\u4fc2\u7684\u9ee8\u6d3e\u53d6\u5f97\u5927\u9078\u52dd\u5229\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u6a5f\u69cb\u548c\u5916\u570b\u653f\u6b0a\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0d\u591a\u5143\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u9ad4\u5236\u4f5c\u51fa\u652f\u6301\u548c\u6709\u8a71\u4e8b\u6b0a\u3002<\/div><div>Karl \u548c Schmitter (1991: 270-71)\u66fe\u6307\u51fa\u5c0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5148\u6c7a\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u63a2\u8a0e\u662f\u6709\u8aa4\u5c0e\u6027\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u901a\u904e\u89c0\u5bdf\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u653f\u9ee8\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u904e\u7a0b\u4f86\u95e1\u8ff0\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f49\u578b\u3002Karl\u6307\u51fa\uff0c&#8220;\u8207\u5176\u5c0d\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u5148\u6c7a\u689d\u4ef6\u9032\u884c\u4e8b\u500d\u529f\u534a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u6f84\u6e05\u5728\u653f\u6b0a\u8f49\u578b\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0b\uff08\u9019\u4e9b\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u7531\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u653f\u6b0a\u7684\u5d29\u6f70\u800c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\uff09\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u6230\u7565\u4e92\u52d5\uff08strategic interactions\uff09\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u6230\u7565\u4e92\u52d5\u80fd\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e00\u570b\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u8a95\u751f\u548c\u767c\u5c55. . .&#8221;(Karl 1990: 19)\u3002<\/div><div>Karl \u548c Schmitter (1991)\u8a8d\u70ba\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5c0d\u653f\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u5982\u4f55\u5efa\u69cb\u653f\u9ad4\u7684\u5206\u6790\u662f\u8207\u5c0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5148\u6c7a\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5206\u96e2\u7684\u3002\u6211\u5c0d\u6b64\u4e0d\u6562\u82df\u540c\u3002\u5c0d\u5148\u6c7a\u7684\u793e\u6703\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u5206\u6790\u662f\u8207\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u69cb\u5236\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u606f\u606f\u76f8\u95dc\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u4e9b\u689d\u4ef6\u90fd\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u80fd\u5426\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u74b0\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u6210\u529f\u662f\u5426\u8207\u9019\u4e9b\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u6709\u95dc\u3002\u6b63\u5982Weffort (1992)\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c&#8220;\u4e00\u500b\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u904b\u4f5c\u6a19\u6e96\u986f\u793a\u51fa\u5176\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u793e\u6703\u689d\u4ef6&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff11\uff18\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e26\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5148\u6c7a\u689d\u4ef6\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u4e4b\u9593\u4f5c\u51fa\u975e\u6b64\u5373\u5f7c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9078\u64c7&#9472;\u5b83\u5011\u5169\u8005\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u76f8\u8f14\u76f8\u6210\u7684\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><strong>\u7d50\u8ad6<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u6c11\u4e3b\u662f\u4e00\u9805\u570b\u969b\u6027\u7684\u4e8b\u696d\u3002\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u9ee8\u6d3e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5404\u5f0f\u5404\u6a23\u7684\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7d44\u7e54\uff08non-governmental organizations\uff09\u90fd\u81f4\u529b\u65bc\u70ba\u65b0\u751f\u81ea\u7531\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u4eba\u6b0a\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u51fa\u9322\u51fa\u529b\uff0c\u548c\u65bd\u58d3\u529b\u7d66\u6975\u6b0a\u8005\u4e26\u6566\u4fc3\u5176\u4f5c\u51fa\u6539\u8b8a(Economist 1993 c: 46)\u3002\u5404\u985e\u7684\u570b\u969b\u6a5f\u69cb\u548c\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6b50\u6d32\u5171\u540c\u9ad4\uff0c\u5317\u7d04\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\uff0c\u548c\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\uff08International Monetary Fund\uff09\u90fd\u5728\u63d0\u4f9b\u5176\u6210\u54e1\u570b\u8cc7\u52a9\u6b3e\u9805\u6642\u52a0\u5165\u5c0d\u5176\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u4f5c\u70ba\u5148\u6c7a\u689d\u4ef6\u3002\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u6563\u4f48\uff0c\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u6216\u5ba3\u793a\u6548\u61c9\u90fd\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u884c\u6027\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6548\u61c9\u90fd\u80fd\u4fc3\u9032\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u6539\u9769\u548c\u4ee4\u5230\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u4f5c\u51fa\u8b93\u6b65\u3002\u9003\u907f\u81ea\u7531\u9078\u8209\u53ea\u6703\u8b8a\u5f97\u611a\u8822\u548c\u7121\u6548\u76ca\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\uff0c\u6771\u4e9e\uff0c\u6771\u6b50\uff0c\u548c\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u975e\u6d32(Ake 1991: 33)\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u9078\u8209\u4e26\u4e0d\u80fd\u78ba\u4fdd\u5176\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5b8c\u7f8e\u3002\u5916\u754c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7d66\u4e88\u652f\u63f4\uff0c\u4f46\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u5167\u7684\u53cd\u5c0d\u6d3e\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u5229\u5bb3\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u548c\u6e05\u6670\u5ea6\u90fd\u5fc5\u9808\u7531\u5e0c\u671b\u5efa\u7acb\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u81ea\u5df1\u4f86\u5f97\u4ee5\u5be6\u73fe\u3002<\/div><div>\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u9452\u65bc\u5b83\u5011\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u4f4e\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u5c0d\u5f88\u591a\u65b0\u751f\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u9577\u671f\u7a4f\u5b9a\u6027\u4fdd\u6301\u5be9\u8b39\u614b\u5ea6\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5df4\u897f\u5b78\u8005Francisco Weffort (1992)\u66fe\u7d93\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u5011\uff0c&#8220;\u5728\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u65b0\u751f\u6c11\u4e3b\u671f\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u5f88\u591a\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u662f\u8207\u5176\u6df1\u523b\u548c\u9577\u4e45\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\u540c\u6642\u767c\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5371\u6a5f\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86\u793e\u6703\u5206\u5316\uff0c\u9694\u96e2\u548c\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u8ca7\u7aae. . .\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u66f4\u662f\u628a\u5176\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u793e\u6703\u6392\u4ed6\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u96f7\u5340\u4e0a\uff08building a political democracy on top of a minefield of social apartheid\uff09. . .&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff12\uff10\uff09\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u5c07\u6703\u8f15\u800c\u6613\u8209\u5730\u6467\u6bc1\u963f\u723e\u53ca\u5229\u4e9e\uff0c\u6d77\u5730\uff0c\u5c3c\u65e5\u5229\u4e9e\uff0c\u548c\u79d8\u9b6f\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u5df2\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u4f86\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u3002\u4e5f\u6703\u628a\u67d0\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5df4\u897f\uff0c\u57c3\u53ca\uff0c\u80af\u5c3c\u4e9e\uff0c\u83f2\u5f8b\u8cd3\uff0c\u524d\u5357\u65af\u62c9\u592b\uff0c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u70cf\u62c9\u723e\u5730\u5340\u7684\u5171\u548c\u570b\uff0c\u63a8\u81f3\u9000\u5316\u7684\u5883\u5730\u3002\u66f4\u6703\u5728\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u524d\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u570b\u5bb6\u5f15\u767c\u8d77\u5de6\u53f3\u5169\u7ffc\u7684\u53cd\u6c11\u4e3b\u904b\u52d5\u3002<\/div><div>\u65b0\u751f\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u6700\u6025\u9700\u7684\u662f\u4e0d\u50c5\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u9818\u57df\u90fd\u8981\u53d6\u5f97\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u4e0a\u6709\u6240\u4f5c\u70ba\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5b83\u5011\u4e5f\u61c9\u80fd\u591f\u4fdd\u6301\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u7684\u7a4f\u5b9a\u3002\u4f46\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u525b\u624d\u6240\u8a00\u7684\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0d\u666f\u6c23\u6703\u4ee4\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u7a4f\u5b9a\u53d7\u640d\u3002Diamond (1992 b)\u5728\u5176\u95dc\u65bc\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u8a55\u8ff0\u4e5f\u540c\u6a23\u9069\u7528\u65bc\u5927\u591a\u6578\u7684\u524d\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u570b\u5bb6\uff1a&#8220;\u6211\u5011\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u8b93\u6c11\u4e3b\u5bb9\u5fcd\u7d93\u6fdf\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u773e\u591a\u77ed\u671f\u5931\u8aa4\u548c\u75db\u82e6\uff1f&#8221;\uff08\u9801\uff14\uff11\uff09\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u6703\u5c31\u6b64\u6307\u51fa\u6208\u723e\u5df4\u55ac\u592b\u5f0f\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u793e\u6703\u6539\u9769\uff08perestroika\uff09\u5fc5\u9808\u5148\u65bc\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\uff08glasnost\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u5728\u8ca7\u7aae\u570b\u5bb6\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u793e\u6703\u6539\u9769\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u9032\u884c\u3002<\/div><div>\u6211\u5c0d\u6b64\u4f5c\u4e00\u500b\u65b9\u6cd5\u8ad6\u5f0f\u7684\u63a8\u65b7\u548c\u7e3d\u7d50\u3002\u6211\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7684\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u90e8\u4efd\u65e8\u5728\u5f9e\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u548c\u7d50\u69cb\u89d2\u5ea6\u627e\u51fa\u6c11\u4e3b\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u53ca\u5176\u5c0d\u793e\u6703\u5206\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u4f46\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4e5f\u66fe\u5c0d\u6b64\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u4e4b\u4e2d\u4e5f\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u727d\u9023\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u91cc\u6240\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u5be6\u5728\u6578\u4e0d\u52dd\u6578\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7121\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u4efb\u4f55\u56e0\u7d20\u6216\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7522\u751f\u4e0d\u540c\u6216\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u4ea8\u5ef7\u9813\uff08Huntington , 1991: 37-38\uff09\u6307\u51fa\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6587\u672c\u4e2d\u6709\uff12\uff17\u500b\u7368\u7acb\u7684\u89e3\u91cb\u6027\u7684\u8b8a\u6578\uff08independent explanatory variables\uff09\u3002\u5c0d\u6b64\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c07\u5176\u8207\u91ab\u5b78\u9032\u884c\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u5728\u91ab\u5b78\u91cc\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u6578\u64da\u5eab\u4e2d\u6709\u6578\u4ee5\u5343\u8a08\u5c0d\u540c\u985e\u75c5\u4f8b\u7684\u6cbb\u7642\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7121\u6cd5\u5f9e\u4e2d\u62bd\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u65b9\u6848\u7d66\u91ab\u751f\u5c0d\u60a3\u6709\u540c\u985e\u75c5\u5fb5\u7684\u65b0\u75c5\u4eba\u9032\u884c\u8a3a\u6cbb\u3002\u540c\u6a23\u5730\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6211\u5011\u5c0d\u751a\u9ebc\u662f\u6700\u4f73\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5c07\u5176\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5df2\u7d93\u61c2\u5f97\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u6a21\u5f0f\u88ab\u6253\u4e82\uff0c\u516c\u6c11\u5c0d\u5176\u653f\u5e9c\u5931\u671b\u7b49\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u5230\u4eba\u5011\u6613\u65bc\u88ab\u6975\u7aef\u7684\u5b97\u6559\u6216\u4e16\u4fd7\u7d44\u7e54\u5438\u5f15\u800c\u8aa4\u5165\u6b67\u9014\u3002\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u6258\u514b\u7dad\u723e\uff08Tocqueville \uff0c1976\uff09\u5728\u7576\u5e74\u7814\u7a76\u6cd5\u570b\u5927\u9769\u547d\u6642\u5df2\u7d93\u9810\u793a\u5230\u6208\u723e\u5df4\u55ac\u592b\u6240\u7d93\u6b77\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u548c\u8607\u806f\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6df7\u4e82\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c0d\u6b64\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u653f\u9ad4\u7684\u5d29\u6f70\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5728\u5176\u4e0d\u65b7\u6539\u9769\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5e36\u7d66\u4eba\u5011\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u9ad8\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\u548c\u6467\u6bc1\u4e86\u50b3\u7d71\u50f9\u503c\u89c0\u8207\u4fe1\u4ef0\u7684\u6642\u5019(vol. 1, 6-13)\u3002<\/div><div>\u81ea\u4e8c\u6230\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6700\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5e74\uff0c\u6c57\u725b\u5145\u68df\u7684\u5be6\u9a57\u6027\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u6027\uff0c\u548c\u6bd4\u8f03\u6027\u7684\u4f5c\u54c1\u5927\u5927\u5730\u52a0\u6df1\u4e86\u6211\u5011\u5c0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5148\u6c7a\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u4fe1\u5730\u5c0d\u4e00\u4e9b\u89c0\u9ede\u9032\u884c\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u63a2\u8a0e\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u89c0\u9ede\u90fd\u662f\u95dc\u65bc\u5c0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u767c\u5c55\u6709\u5229\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\uff0c\u6587\u5316\uff0c\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u5177\u9ad4\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u7522\u751f\u6709\u8cf4\u65bc\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u793e\u6703\u74b0\u5883\u548c\u689d\u4ef6\uff1a\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u7576\u5730\u7684\u9078\u8209\u5236\uff0c\u653f\u5236\uff0c\u7a2e\u65cf\u7d50\u69cb\uff0c\u5206\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u4fc3\u9032\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u83ef\u76db\u9813\uff08Washington\uff09\u548c\u6797\u80af\uff08Lincoln\uff09\uff0c\u5217\u5be7\u548c\u6208\u723e\u5df4\u55ac\u592b\uff0c\u5c3c\u514b\u9b6f\uff08Nehru\uff09\u548c\u6234\u9ad8\u6a02\uff08DeGaulle\uff09\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5404\u81ea\u90fd\u5c0d\u5176\u6240\u8655\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u767c\u5c55\u7522\u751f\u8209\u8db3\u8f15\u91cd\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/div><div>\u5f88\u660e\u986f\u5730\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u80fd\u5c07\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u8ad6\u751f\u642c\u786c\u5957\u3002\u6211\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\u63a2\u8a0e\u904e\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u56e0\u7d20\u78ba\u5be6\u6703\u5c0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u7522\u751f\u4e00\u5b9a\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5011\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e00\u570b\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u524d\u9014\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u672a\u4f86\u5b78\u5bb6\u5c0d\u6b64\u7684\u8a55\u8ff0\u4e26\u4e0d\u53ef\u4fe1\u3002Dahl (1971: 208) \u548c \u4ea8\u5ef7\u9813 (Huntington \uff0c1984)\u5169\u4f4d\u5c0d\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u6c11\u4e3b\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u8a6e\u91cb\u5148\u9a45\u90fd\u4e0d\u7d04\u800c\u540c\u5730\u5c0d\u6208\u723e\u5df4\u55ac\u592b\u4e0a\u53f0\u524d\u7684\u591a\u982d\u653f\u6cbb\uff08polyarchies\uff09\u6216\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u6301\u6975\u7aef\u60b2\u89c0\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u89c0\u9ede\u8207\u5927\u591a\u6578\u8607\u806f\u5b78\u5b78\u8005\u5728\u4f5c\u51fa\u5c0d\u8607\u806f\u89e3\u9ad4\u9810\u8a00\u7684\u5931\u6557\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u662f\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684(Lipset and Bence Forthcoming)\u3002\u7e3d\u62ec\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u6700\u7d42\u6210\u529f\u6216\u5931\u6557\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6578\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u7e7c\u7e8c\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u653f\u6cbb\u9818\u5c0e\u8005\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u7fa4\u9ad4\u7684\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u548c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div><strong>\u4f5c\u8005\u7c21\u4ecb<\/strong><\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>\u897f\u83ab\u723e&#8231;\u99ac\u4e01&#8231;\u5c3c\u85a9\uff08Seymour Martin Lipset\uff09\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u55ac\u6cbb&#8231;\u9ea5\u905c\u5927\u5b78\uff08George Mason University\uff09\u7684\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u793e\u6703\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3002\u4ed6\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u671f\u4e39\u798f\u5927\u5b78\uff08Stanford Univerisity\uff09\u80e1\u4f5b\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08Hoover Institution\uff09\u7684\u9ad8\u7d1a\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\u548c\u69ae\u4f11\u6559\u6388\u3002\u5c3c\u85a9\u66fe\u88ab\u63a8\u8209\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u6587\u548c\u79d1\u5b78\u9662\uff08National Academy of Arts and Sciences\uff09\u6210\u54e1\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u4efb\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u5b78\u5b78\u6703\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u5b78\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u653f\u6cbb\u4eba\u300b\uff08Political Man\uff09\u66fe\u7d93\u8d0f\u5f97\u9ea5\u514b\u7dad\u723e\u5927\u734e\uff08Maclver Award\uff09\uff1b\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u672c\u8207Earl Raab\u5408\u8457\u7684\u66f8\u300a\u975e\u7406\u6027\u653f\u6cbb\u300b\uff08The Politics of Unreason\uff09\u5247\u88ab\u6388\u4e88\u683c\u7d0d&#8231;\u7c73\u5fb7\u723e\u5927\u734e\uff08Gunnar Myrdal Prize\uff09\u3002\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u9084\u6709\u5169\u672c\u66f8\u6b63\u6e96\u5099\u4ed8\u6893\u51fa\u7248\uff0c\u4e00\u672c\u662f\u6709\u95dc\u7f8e\u570b\u4f8b\u5916\u8ad6\uff08American 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Washington, DC: World Bank.<\/div><div>Wright, Robin. 1992. &#8220;Islam and Democracy.&#8221; Foreign Affairs 71 (3): 131-45.<\/div><div><\/div><div>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div><\/div><div>&nbsp; \u8a73\u7d30\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\u53c3\u95b1Lipset (1981: 27); Dahl (1970: 78; 1971: 150-62; 1982: 11); Huntington (1991: 5-13); and Schmitter and Karl (1993: 40-46)\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp; \u95dc\u65bc\u5c0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e00\u8a5e\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u5c0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u5236\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u53c3\u95b1Sartori (1983: 28-34; 1987: 257-77)\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp; \u9019\u500b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u4e26\u4e0d\u9069\u5408\u6771\u4e9e\u7684\u65b0\u8208\u5de5\u696d\u5316\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u97d3\u570b\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u548c\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp; \u7576\u7136\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5e74\u6709\u8b49\u64da\u986f\u793a\u5728\u5357\u4e9e\uff0c\u6771\u4e9e\uff0c\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u548c\u7531\u5357\u6b50\u79fb\u6c11\u4f5c\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5448\u73fe\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u9ad4\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp; \u6839\u64da\u81ea\u7531\u4e4b\u5bb6\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\u6a19\u6e96\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6c11\u751f\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53d6\u5f97\u9032\u6b65\u6216\u5c0e\u81f4\u9000\u6b65\u800c\u7121\u9808\u6539\u8b8a\u5176\u570b\u5bb6\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u6216\u5a01\u6b0a\u7684\u6027\u8cea\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp; \u53c3\u95b1Dongan(1988)\u548cLipset(1963, 1979: 17)\u95dc\u65bc\u5c0d\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;\u3000\u99ac\u514b\u601d\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u5148\u9a45\u5b78\u8005\u845b\u862d\u897f\uff08Gramsci\uff09\u5728\u5176\uff12\uff10\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u4f5c\u54c1\u4e2d\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\u5728\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\u51fa\u73fe&#8220;\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703&#8221;\uff08dense civil society\uff09\u7684\u9700\u8981\uff0c\u9019\u6703\u4ee4\u5230\u901a\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e4b\u8def\u8b8a\u5f97\u53ef\u80fd (Stephens 1993: 414; Lipset 1981: 52-53; Huntington 1984: 202-3)\u3002<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div><div>&nbsp;<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&lt;div&gt;\u5168\u6587\u7c21\u4ecb&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;\u5728\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e86\u5f71\u97ff\u5168\u7403\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u5efa\u8a2d\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u904e\u7a0b\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u5404\u7a2e\u5404\u6a23\u7684\u6587\u5316\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u5b97\u6559\u50b3\u7d71\uff0c\u9078\u8209\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u500b\u5177\u6709\u53c3\u8207\u6027\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u9ee8\u6d3e\u61c9\u8a72\u91c7\u53d6\u4f55\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\u4fdd\u6301\u793e\u6703\u7a4f\u5b9a\u3002\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u662f\uff1a\u5728\u7576\u4eca\u5168\u7403\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u65b0\u751f\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u91cc\uff0c\u5176\u653f\u6b0a\u5927\u591a\u53ea\u6709\u5f88\u4f4e\u8a8d\u53ef\u5ea6\u548c\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u9019\u4e9b\u653f\u6b0a\u8981\u89e3\u6c7a\u7684\u9996\u8981\u554f\u984c\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u5176\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u9577\u6cbb\u4e45\u5b89\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u548c\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u5f88\u591a\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u958b\u59cb\u662f\u4f34\u96a8\u5176\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u578b\u6240\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u793e\u6703\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u5df2\u69cb\u6210\u4e86\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u5efa\u8a2d\u7684\u5a01\u8107\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6b0a\u6700\u9700\u8981\u7684\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7ba1\u6cbb\uff08efficacy\uff09\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u57df\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u5728\u653f\u5236\u9818\u57df\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9019\u4e9b\u653f\u6b0a\u80fd\u5728\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5efa\u8a2d\u4e2d\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u6548\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4fbf\u80fd\u76f8\u61c9\u5730\u4fdd\u6301\u5176\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u7a4f\u5b9a\u3002\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u8aaa\u4e5f\u4e00\u6a23\uff1a\u5047\u5982\u9019\u4e9b\u653f\u6b0a\u4e0d\u80fd\u70ba\u5176\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u8863\u98df\u4f4f\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u4fdd\u969c\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u751f\u6839\u767c\u82bd\u3002&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;\/div&gt;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,152],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-88220","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-first","category-democratization-translation","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88220","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=88220"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88220\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=88220"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=88220"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=88220"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}