{"id":98915,"date":"2022-11-22T16:59:11","date_gmt":"2022-11-22T21:59:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=98915"},"modified":"2022-11-22T18:04:34","modified_gmt":"2022-11-22T23:04:34","slug":"%e9%98%b2%e7%96%ab%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e5%8f%8d%e5%a4%8d%e6%97%a0%e5%b8%b8-%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e9%9a%be%e8%bf%8e%e6%9b%99%e5%85%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=98915","title":{"rendered":"\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u53cd\u590d\u65e0\u5e38 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u96be\u8fce\u66d9\u5149"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"date-time-area \">\n<div class=\"container\"><span class=\"date-time\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u65f6\u95f4 6:58 2022\u5e7411\u670823\u65e5 \u661f\u671f\u4e09<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"content\">\n<div class=\"container\">\n<div class=\"hdr-container\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-publishing-details col-xs-12 col-sm-12 col-md-2 pull-left\">\n<div class=\"publishing-details \">\n<div 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src=\"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/1122fy.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-98916\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">2022\u5e7411\u670815\u65e5\u4e2d\u56fd\u5317\u4eac\u671d\u9633\u533a\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u51a0\u68c0\u6d4b\u5904\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002\uff08\u8def\u900f\u793e\uff09<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-xs-12 col-md-2 pull-left article-share pos-rel\">\n<div class=\"share--box\">\n<aside class=\"share flex-column js-share--apply-sticky js-share--expandable js-share--horizontal\" data-extended=\"true\"><span class=\"label label--share\">\u5206\u4eab<\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"share__list\">\n<li class=\"share__item\"><\/li>\n<li class=\"share__item\"><\/li>\n<li class=\"share__item\"><\/li>\n<li class=\"share__item\"><\/li>\n<li class=\"share__item\"><\/li>\n<li class=\"share__item\"><\/li>\n<li class=\"share__item\"><\/li>\n<li class=\"share__item\">\n<div 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href=\"https:\/\/www.voachinese.com\/a\/china-covid-cases-rise-hard-hit-beijing-tightens-entry-rules-20221121\/6843421.html\"><span class=\"also-read__text--label\">\u8bf7\u540c\u65f6\u53c2\u9605\uff1a<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h4 class=\"media-block__title media-block__title--size-3 also-read__text 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Graham\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u4f8b\u7684\u6500\u5347\u548c\u5730\u65b9\u91cd\u62fe\u7ba1\u63a7\u5c01\u9501\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u4f01\u4e1a\u611f\u5230\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wsw__embed wsw__embed--small\">\n<figure class=\"media-image js-media-expand js-media-expand--ready\">\n<div class=\"img-wrap\">\n<div class=\"thumb\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gdb.voanews.com\/09410000-0a00-0242-5d20-08dacc1792d1_w250_r0_s.jpg\" alt=\"\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u7406\u4e8b\u4f1a\u5730\u7f18\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u526f\u4e3b\u4efb\u5c3c\u5c14\u65af\u00b7\u683c\u96f7\u5384\u59c6\uff08Niels Graham\uff09(\u7167\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u7406\u4e8b\u4f1a\uff09\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u7406\u4e8b\u4f1a\u5730\u7f18\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u526f\u4e3b\u4efb\u5c3c\u5c14\u65af\u00b7\u683c\u96f7\u5384\u59c6\uff08Niels Graham\uff09(\u7167\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u7406\u4e8b\u4f1a\uff09<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u683c\u96f7\u5384\u59c6\u544a\u8bc9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5468\u672b\u786e\u5b9e\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u4f01\u4e1a\u6240\u76f8\u4fe1\u7684\u548c\u5b9e\u9645\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5317\u4eac\u6240\u6697\u793a\u7684\u548c\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u5b9e\u9645\u6240\u505a\u7684\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5f00\u653e\u524d\u666f\u5b58\u7591<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e13\u5bb6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u65b0\u63aa\u65bd\u53ef\u80fd\u6307\u5411\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u653e\uff0c\u4f46\u96be\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u9632\u6b62\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7206\u53d1\u548c\u4e0d\u65bd\u52a0\u8fc7\u5ea6\u9650\u5236\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f53\u5c40\u6566\u4fc3\u5730\u65b9\u907f\u514d\u201c\u4e0d\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u5730\u653e\u677e\u201d\u65b0\u51a0\u6e05\u96f6\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u6697\u6307\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u201c\u4e8c\u5341\u6761\u201d\u9881\u5e03\u540e\u6025\u4e8e\u653e\u5f03\u68c0\u6d4b\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u75c5\u4f8b\u6025\u5267\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u536b\u5065\u59d4\u53d1\u8a00\u4eba\u7c73\u950b\u572811\u670818\u65e5\u7684\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u575a\u6301\u201c\u52a8\u6001\u6e05\u96f6\u603b\u65b9\u9488\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u79f0\u201c\u8981\u53cd\u5bf9\u4e0d\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u9632\u6b62\u2018\u4e00\u653e\u4e86\u4e4b\u2019\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6709\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b63\u5728\u4e3a\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u653e\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u540c\u573a\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b98\u5458\u8981\u6c42\u52a0\u5f3a\u65b9\u8231\u533b\u9662\u5efa\u8bbe\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u5347\u533b\u7597\u536b\u751f\u7cfb\u7edf\u5904\u7406\u65b0\u51a0\u5371\u91cd\u75c5\u4eba\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b63\u5728\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u6f6e\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u5468\u4e00\u8fd8\u4e0b\u53d1\u4e86\u56db\u4efd\u6587\u4ef6\uff0c\u5bf9\u6838\u9178\u68c0\u6d4b\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u533a\u5212\u5206\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u505a\u51fa\u8be6\u7ec6\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u89c4\u5b9a\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u5730\u533a\u4e0d\u5f97\u6269\u5927\u6838\u9178\u68c0\u6d4b\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f7c\u5f97\u68ee\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u54c8\u592b\u9c8d\u5c14(Gary Hufbauer)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5546\u754c\u6b22\u8fce\u4efb\u4f55\u89e3\u5c01\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u63a8\u52a8\u8fd8\u8981\u770b\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u843d\u5b9e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wsw__embed wsw__embed--small wsw__embed--pull-right\">\n<figure class=\"media-image js-media-expand js-media-expand--ready\">\n<div class=\"img-wrap\">\n<div class=\"thumb\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gdb.voanews.com\/D5892BE5-DBEA-41D2-9707-C10FF5A7BBC8_w250_r0_s.jpg\" alt=\"\u534e\u76db\u987f\u667a\u5e93\u5f7c\u5f97\u68ee\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u52a0\u91cc\u00b7\u8d6b\u592b\u9c8d\u5c14(\u8d44\u6599\u7167\u7247)\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">\u534e\u76db\u987f\u667a\u5e93\u5f7c\u5f97\u68ee\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u52a0\u91cc\u00b7\u8d6b\u592b\u9c8d\u5c14(\u8d44\u6599\u7167\u7247)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u54c8\u592b\u9c8d\u5c14\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u5b9e\u65bd\uff1a\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u5c01\u9501\u5c06\u88ab\u89e3\u9664\uff0c\u5728\u54ea\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\uff1f\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee3\u8868200\u591a\u5bb6\u5728\u534e\u7ecf\u8425\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u6e38\u8bf4\u7ec4\u7ec7\u201c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u8d38\u6613\u5168\u56fd\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u201d\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u653e\u677e\u653f\u7b56\u8868\u793a\u6b22\u8fce\uff0c\u79f0\u5728\u534e\u7f8e\u4f01\u7684\u7ecf\u8425\u53d7\u5230\u65b0\u51a0\u6e05\u96f6\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u5e72\u6270\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53d1\u8a00\u4eba\u9053\u683c\u00b7\u5df4\u91cc(Doug Barry)\u544a\u8bc9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\uff1a\u201c\u6210\u5458\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u5f53\u5730\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5c06\u5f97\u5230\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5883\u5185\u66f4\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u65c5\u884c\u548c\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u7834\u574f\u6027\u5c01\u9501\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u9700\u6c42\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5df4\u91cc\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u754c\u4e5f\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u63a8\u52a8\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u5b58\u5728\u56f0\u96be\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u62b5\u6d88\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5df4\u91cc\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u5bf92023\u5e74\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u6001\u5ea6\u5fc5\u987b\u53d7\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u96be\u9898\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f00\u653e\u5f97\u592a\u5feb\uff0c\u800c\u75c5\u6bd2\u6bd4\u4ee5\u524d\u4f20\u64ad\u5f97\u66f4\u5e7f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u533b\u7597\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u4e00\u573a\u6bd4\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u60c5\u90fd\u8981\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u76f8\u5173\u635f\u5bb3\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u538b\u529b\u5c71\u5927<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\u540e\u4e00\u76f4\u575a\u6301\u65b0\u51a0\u6e05\u96f6\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b98\u65b9\u8003\u8651\u653e\u677e\u9650\u5236\u4ee5\u91cd\u632f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u572810\u6708\u906d\u9047\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u7f13\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u4e0a\u5468\u516c\u5e03\u768410\u6708\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u957f\u8fbe\u4e00\u5468\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5e86\u8282\u5047\u671f\u5bf9\u6d88\u8d39\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4f5c\u7528\u6781\u5176\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6d88\u8d39\u6307\u6807\u7684\u96f6\u552e\u603b\u989d\u81ea5\u6708\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u840e\u7f29\uff0c\u5de5\u4e1a\u589e\u52a0\u503c\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u52a0\u901f\u56de\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eca\u5e74\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b9e\u73b0\u5b98\u65b9\u5236\u5b9a\u76845.5%\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u589e\u957f\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u524d\u4e5d\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e3a3%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u9645\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u6784\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f00\u59cb\u53d6\u6d88\u9632\u75ab\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u660e\u5e74\u540c\u6bd4\u4f1a\u52a0\u5feb\u3002\u745e\u94f6\uff08UBS\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u4eca\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fdGDP\u589e\u957f3.1%\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u901f\u5c06\u56de\u5347\u81f34.5%\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"wsw__a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/insights\/pages\/chinas-reopening-could-drive-stocks-up-20-percent.html\" target=\"_blank\" 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