{"id":99332,"date":"2022-12-17T16:55:36","date_gmt":"2022-12-17T21:55:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=99332"},"modified":"2022-12-17T18:00:30","modified_gmt":"2022-12-17T23:00:30","slug":"ihme%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%ef%bc%9a2023%e5%b9%b4%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e5%9b%a0%e6%96%b0%e5%86%a0%e7%97%85%e6%af%92%e7%96%ab%e6%83%85%e6%ad%bb%e4%ba%a1%e4%ba%ba%e6%95%b0%e5%b0%86%e8%b6%85","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=99332","title":{"rendered":"IHME\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a2023\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u56e0\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u75ab\u60c5\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u5c06\u8d85\u8fc7100\u4e07"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"date-time-area \">\n<div class=\"container\"><span class=\"date-time\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u65f6\u95f4 6:55 2022\u5e7412\u670818\u65e5 \u661f\u671f\u65e5<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"content\">\n<div class=\"container\">\n<div class=\"hdr-container\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-category 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class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-xs-12 col-sm-12 col-md-8 col-lg-8 pull-left bottom-offset content-offset\">\n<div id=\"article-content\" class=\"content-floated-wrap fb-quotable\">\n<div class=\"wsw\"><span class=\"dateline\">\u534e\u76db\u987f \u2014 <\/span>\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5065\u5eb7\u6307\u6807\u4e0e\u8bc4\u4f30\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, IHME\uff09\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u52302023\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7a81\u7136\u53d6\u6d88\u5bf9\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u9650\u5236\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u75c5\u4f8b\u6fc0\u589e\uff0c\u5c06\u6709\u8d85\u8fc7100\u4e07\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8be5\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u75c5\u4f8b\u5c06\u57284\u67081\u65e5\u5de6\u53f3\u8fbe\u5230\u5cf0\u503c\uff0c\u5c4a\u65f6\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u5c06\u8fbe\u523032.2\u4e07\u4eba\u3002IHME\u4e3b\u4efb\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17\u00b7\u9ed8\u91cc(Christopher Murray)\u8bf4\uff0c\u5230\u90a3\u65f6\uff0c\u5927\u7ea6\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u5c06\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u81ea\u53d6\u6d88\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u9632\u75ab\u9650\u5236\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u536b\u751f\u90e8\u95e8\u6ca1\u6709\u62a5\u544a\u4efb\u4f55\u5b98\u65b9\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u75c5\u4f8b\u3002\u5b98\u65b9\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u662f\u572812\u67083\u65e5\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u75c5\u4f8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u76ee\u524d\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u5168\u56fd\u75ab\u60c5\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u603b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u4e3a5,235\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u516c\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e8e12\u6708\u53d6\u6d88\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u4e00\u4e9b\u6700\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u9632\u75ab\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u56fd\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6570\u6fc0\u589e\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u62c5\u5fc3\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u75ab\u60c5\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e0b\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u519c\u5386\u65b0\u5e74\u5047\u671f\u5e2d\u537714\u4ebf\u4eba\u53e3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5468\u4e94\uff0c\u5728IHME\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5728\u7f51\u4e0a\u53d1\u5e03\u65f6\uff0c\u9ed8\u91cc\u8bf4:\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u575a\u6301\u90a3\u4e48\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u2018\u6e05\u96f6\u2019\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u2018\u6e05\u96f6\u2019\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u5730\u963b\u6b62\u4e86\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u53d8\u79cd\uff0c\u4f46\u5965\u79d8\u514b\u620e\u53d8\u79cd\u7684\u9ad8\u4f20\u64ad\u6027\u4f7f\u8fd9\u79cd\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f4d\u4e8e\u897f\u96c5\u56fe\u7684\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5927\u5b66(University of Washington)\u7684\u8fd9\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5c0f\u7ec4\u5229\u7528\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u5404\u7701\u7684\u6570\u636e\u548c\u6700\u8fd1\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u5965\u79d8\u514b\u620e\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e00\u76f4\u4f9d\u8d56\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5c0f\u7ec4\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u81ea\u6b66\u6c49\u6700\u521d\u7206\u53d1\u75ab\u60c5\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u62a5\u544a\u4efb\u4f55\u6b7b\u4ea1\u75c5\u4f8b\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u76ee\u5149\u6295\u5411\u9999\u6e2f\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e86\u89e3\u611f\u67d3\u81f4\u6b7b\u7387\uff0c\u201d \u9ed8\u91cc\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\uff0cIHME\u8fd8\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u75ab\u82d7\u63a5\u79cd\u7387\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5404\u7701\u5728\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u4ed6\u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ea660%\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u5728\u660e\u5e741\u6708\u8fbe\u5230\u9ad8\u5cf0\uff0c\u8001\u5e74\u4eba\u548c\u6709\u57fa\u7840\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u4eba\u7b49\u5f31\u52bf\u4eba\u7fa4\u5c06\u53d7\u5230\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3b\u8981\u62c5\u5fe7\u5305\u62ec\u4e2d\u56fd\u6613\u611f\u4eba\u7fa4\u4f17\u591a\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u75ab\u82d7\u6548\u679c\u8f83\u5dee\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca80\u5c81\u53ca\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u75ab\u82d7\u8986\u76d6\u7387\u4f4e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u60a3\u91cd\u75c7\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6700\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5176\u5b83\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u5468\u4e09\u5728Medrxiv\u9884\u5370\u672c\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u4e0a\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u75be\u75c5\u5efa\u6a21\u4eba\u5458\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u57282022\u5e7412\u6708\u81f32023\u5e741\u6708\u671f\u95f4\u53d6\u6d88\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u9650\u5236\u5e76\u540c\u65f6\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u653e\u6240\u6709\u7701\u4efd\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\u6bcf\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u4e2d\u6709 684 \u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u5c1a\u5f85\u540c\u884c\u7684\u8bc4\u5ba1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6309\u7167\u4e2d\u56fd14.1\u4ebf\u4eba\u53e3\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u63d0\u5021\u65bd\u6253\u75ab\u82d7\u52a0\u5f3a\u9488\u7b49\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u5c06\u8fbe\u523096.44\u4e07\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u6d77\u590d\u65e6\u5927\u5b66\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54582022\u5e747\u6708\u5728\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u533b\u5b66\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6ce2\u5965\u79d8\u514b\u620e\u75ab\u60c5\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f46\u4e2a\u6708\u5185155\u4e07\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u91cd\u75c7\u76d1\u62a4\u75c5\u623f\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u9700\u6c42\u5c06\u662f\u73b0\u6709\u5bb9\u91cf\u768415.6\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u5173\u7cfb\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(Council on Foreign Relations)\u5168\u7403\u536b\u751f\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u9ec4\u4e25\u5fe0\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u67091.64\u4ebf\u7cd6\u5c3f\u75c5\u60a3\u8005\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u67d3\u75ab\u540e\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u4f73\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u98ce\u9669\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u8fd8\u6709800\u4e0780\u5c81\u53ca\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u8001\u4eba\u4ece\u672a\u63a5\u79cd\u8fc7\u75ab\u82d7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9ec4\u4e25\u5fe0\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b98\u5458\u73b0\u5728\u9f13\u52b1\u4e2a\u4eba\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4e2d\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u7684\u65b0\u75ab\u82d7\u6765\u589e\u5f3a\u514d\u75ab\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u653f\u5e9c\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u4f7f\u7528\u5916\u56fd\u75ab\u82d7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u536b\u751f\u5065\u5eb7\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5468\u4e94\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u5927\u75ab\u82d7\u63a5\u79cd\u529b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u50a8\u5907\u547c\u5438\u673a\u548c\u57fa\u672c\u836f\u7269\u3002<br 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