{"id":99595,"date":"2023-01-03T18:21:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-03T23:21:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=99595"},"modified":"2023-01-03T19:26:54","modified_gmt":"2023-01-04T00:26:54","slug":"%e6%ac%a7%e4%ba%9a%e9%9b%86%e5%9b%a2%ef%bc%9a%e4%b9%a0%e8%bf%91%e5%b9%b3%e9%9b%86%e6%9d%83%e6%98%af2023%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e9%a6%96%e8%a6%81%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e4%b9%8b%e4%b8%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=99595","title":{"rendered":"\u6b27\u4e9a\u96c6\u56e2\uff1a\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u96c6\u6743\u662f2023\u5168\u7403\u9996\u8981\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u4e4b\u4e00"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"date-time-area \">\n<div class=\"container\"><span class=\"date-time\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u65f6\u95f4 8:18 2023\u5e741\u67084\u65e5 \u661f\u671f\u4e09<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"content\">\n<div class=\"container\">\n<div class=\"hdr-container\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-category col-xs-12 col-md-2 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class=\"body-container\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-xs-12 col-sm-12 col-md-10 col-lg-10 pull-right\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-xs-12 col-sm-12 col-md-8 col-lg-8 pull-left bottom-offset content-offset\">\n<div id=\"article-content\" class=\"content-floated-wrap fb-quotable\">\n<div class=\"wsw\">\n<p><span class=\"dateline\">\u534e\u76db\u987f \u2014 <\/span>\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\u6b27\u4e9a\u96c6\u56e2\uff08Eurasia Group\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u7684\u6743\u529b\u6700\u5927\u5316\uff08Maximum 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Bremmer)\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u81ea\u6bdb\u6cfd\u4e1c\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u50cf\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4e00\u6837\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u90a3\u4e48\u591a\u7684\u6743\u5a01\uff0c\u5de9\u56fa\u4e86\u90a3\u4e48\u591a\u7684\u6743\u529b\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u5168\u7403\u821e\u53f0\u4e0a\u66f4\u52a0\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u5f3a\u5927\u3002\u628a\u8fd9\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u53bb\u5e7410\u6708\u53ec\u5f00\u7684\u4e2d\u5171\u4e8c\u5341\u5927\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e2d\u5171\u603b\u4e66\u8bb0\u4efb\u671f\uff0c\u5de9\u56fa\u4e86\u5176\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6743\u529b\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u65b0\u4e00\u5c4a\u4e2d\u592e\u653f\u6cbb\u5c40\u5e38\u59d4\u4e5f\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u4ed6\u7684\u4eb2\u4fe1\u548c\u76df\u53cb\u7ec4\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u96c6\u6743\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u4e3b\u8981\u5bf9\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u6784\u6210\u4e3b\u8981\u5a01\u80c1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u521d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b98\u65b9\u7a81\u7136\u626d\u8f6c\u4e86\u65b0\u51a0\u6e05\u96f6\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u8f6c\u5411\u4e0e\u75c5\u6bd2\u5171\u5b58\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6b64\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5e76\u672a\u5411\u6c11\u4f17\u666e\u53ca\u76f8\u5173\u536b\u751f\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u533b\u7597\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u5e94\u5bf9\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\u4f30\u7b97\u79f0\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u8d85\u8fc7100\u4e07\u4eba\u6b7b\u4e8e\u65b0\u51a0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u51fa\u73b0\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u53d8\u5f02\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u4e3a\u66f4\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u8fd1\u65e5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u6cd5\u56fd\u7b49\u56fd\u76f8\u7ee7\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u65c5\u5ba2\u5b9e\u65bd\u5165\u5883\u9650\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u7531\u4e8e\u68c0\u6d4b\u548c\u6d4b\u5e8f\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u73b0\u65b0\u7684\u53d8\u79cd\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u536b\u751f\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u582a\u91cd\u8d1f\u548c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u51fa\u73b0\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u53d8\u4f53\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u4f20\u51fa\u53bb\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u52a0\u5f3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u63a7\u5236\u5c06\u4ea7\u751f\u201c\u6b66\u65ad\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u6ce2\u52a8\u201d\uff08arbitrary decisions and policy volatility\uff09\u3002\u5728\u65b0\u51a0\u6e05\u96f6\u653f\u7b56\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u4e09\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5904\u4e8e\u8106\u5f31\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u589e\u957f\u9677\u5165\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8513\u5ef6\u5230\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u90e8\u95e8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u589e\u957f\u75b2\u8f6f\u548c\u56fd\u5185\u6311\u6218\u52a0\u6df1\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u8fdb\u884c\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ba1\u7406\u3002\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u6b63\u5728\u4f20\u9012\u4e0d\u900f\u660e\u548c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u98ce\u9669\u9886\u57df\u662f\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u540c\u65f6\u5904\u7406\u5185\u5fe7\u548c\u5916\u60a3\uff0c\u4f46\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u7684\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u89c2\u70b9\u548c\u5f3a\u786c\u7684\u98ce\u683c\u5c06\u63a8\u52a8\u5317\u4eac\u4e0e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u66f4\u4e3a\u7d27\u5f20\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u9274\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6311\u6218\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u7d27\u8feb\u6027\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5e76\u4e0d\u5e0c\u671b\u51fa\u73b0\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u5371\u673a\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u7684\u5927\u80c6\u8a00\u8bba\u4ed8\u8bf8\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u2018\u6218\u72fc\u5916\u4ea4\u2019\u4ecd\u5c06\u52a0\u5f3a\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u4ee5\u727a\u7272\u6709\u6548\u63a5\u89e6\u4e3a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u8fd8\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4eb2\u5bc6\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5165\u4fb5\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0d\u4f5c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u5a01\u80c1\u5230\u5168\u7403\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u4e0e\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53bb\u5e74\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5207\u65ad\u4e0e\u5317\u4eac\u6280\u672f\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u884c\u4e1a\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e86\u5168\u9762\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e2d\u65b9\u7684\u5f3a\u70c8\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e89\u6597\u6709\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u62a5\u544a\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u7406\u7531\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u5236\u88c1\u4fdd\u6301\u514b\u5236\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e4f\u529b\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u62a5\u590d\u6027\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5982\u5bf9\u7a00\u571f\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u7ba1\u63a7\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u635f\u5bb3\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5229\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b27\u4e9a\u96c6\u56e2\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5c06\u53f0\u6e7e\u5c40\u52bf\u5217\u4e3a\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u5341\u5927\u98ce\u9669\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u79f0\u5728\u53f0\u6e7e\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u7684\u5bf9\u6297\u5c06\u7ed9\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e26\u6765\u4e0d\u53ef\u5fcd\u53d7\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\u90fd\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u53cc\u65b9\u5bc6\u4e0d\u53ef\u5206\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5173\u7cfb\u53d7\u5230\u635f\u5bb3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u76ee\u7779\u4e86\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7a81\u7136\u88ab\u897f\u65b9\u5b64\u7acb\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u63a8\u8fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u6311\u8d77\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u529b\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u5bf9\u5176\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u5730\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u76f4\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u88ab\u4e00\u4f4d\u660e\u663e\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u4fdd\u536b\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u9886\u5bfc\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u57282023\u5e74\u90fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u6b27\u4e9a\u96c6\u56e2\u5c06\u201c\u6d41\u6c13\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u201d\uff08Rogue 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