{"id":99703,"date":"2023-01-10T16:19:52","date_gmt":"2023-01-10T21:19:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=99703"},"modified":"2023-01-10T17:24:36","modified_gmt":"2023-01-10T22:24:36","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e6%99%ba%e5%ba%93%e5%85%b5%e6%8e%a8%e5%8f%b0%e6%b5%b7%e6%88%98%e5%b1%80%ef%bc%9a%e7%be%8e%e6%97%a5%e5%8f%b0%e6%83%a8%e8%83%9c%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e6%b5%b7%e5%86%9b%e5%b0%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/minzhuzhongguo.org\/?p=99703","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u667a\u5e93\u5175\u63a8\u53f0\u6d77\u6218\u5c40\uff1a\u7f8e\u65e5\u53f0\u60e8\u80dc\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u5c06\u201c\u6e83\u4e0d\u6210\u519b\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"date-time-area \">\n<div class=\"container\"><span class=\"date-time\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u65f6\u95f4 6:20 2023\u5e741\u670811\u65e5 \u661f\u671f\u4e09<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"content\">\n<div class=\"container\">\n<div class=\"hdr-container\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div 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Heginbotham\uff09\u5728<a class=\"wsw__a\" href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/events\/report-launch%E2%80%95-first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u62a5\u544a\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a<\/a>\u4e0a\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u7b54\u6848\uff1a\u201c\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b8c\u6210\u5b83\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u76ee\u6807\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u5360\u9886\u53f0\u5317\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u636eCSIS\u7684\u5175\u63a8\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5165\u4fb5\u901a\u5e38\u4ee5\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6253\u5f00\uff1a\u5728\u51b2\u7a81\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u6700\u521d\u51e0\u4e2a\u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u8f70\u70b8\u5e76\u6467\u6bc1\u4e86\u53f0\u6e7e\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6d77\u519b\u548c\u7a7a\u519b\u3002\u62e5\u6709\u5f3a\u5927\u706b\u7bad\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u5305\u56f4\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u5e76\u963b\u6b62\u4efb\u4f55\u8239\u8230\u548c\u98de\u673a\u8bd5\u56fe\u8fdb\u5165\u906d\u56f4\u56f0\u7684\u53f0\u6e7e\u3002\u6570\u4ee5\u4e07\u8ba1\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u519b\u4eba\u5229\u7528\u519b\u7528\u4e24\u6816\u8247\u548c\u6c11\u7528\u6eda\u88c5\u8239\u5f3a\u6e21\u6d77\u5ce1\uff0c\u800c\u7a7a\u4e2d\u7a81\u51fb\u961f\u548c\u7a7a\u964d\u90e8\u961f\u5219\u5728\u6ee9\u5934\u9635\u5730\u540e\u65b9\u964d\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u201c\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u666f\u201d\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5165\u4fb5\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u4f1a\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8f70\u70b8\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u5730\u9762\u90e8\u961f\u6d8c\u5411\u5165\u4fb5\u8005\u52aa\u529b\u5efa\u7acb\u8865\u7ed9\u5e76\u5411\u5185\u9646\u79fb\u52a8\u6ee9\u5934\u9635\u5730\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6f5c\u8247\u3001\u8f70\u70b8\u673a\u548c\u6218\u6597\u673a\/\u653b\u51fb\u673a\uff0c\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u81ea\u536b\u961f\u7684\u589e\u63f4\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fc5\u901f\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e24\u6816\u8230\u961f\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u57fa\u5730\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c34\u9762\u8230\u8247\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u6539\u53d8\u6218\u679c\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u6700\u540e\u4fdd\u6301\u81ea\u6cbb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f55\u7406\u51ef\u8bf4\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u957f\u671f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u7684\u6311\u6218\u8fd8\u662f\u8de8\u6d77\u5175\u529b\u6295\u8fd0\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u8230\u8247\u5728\u5e94\u5bf9\u7a7a\u4e2d\u5bfc\u5f39\u548c\u6f5c\u6c34\u8247\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u6240\u66b4\u9732\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u635f\u5931\u60e8\u91cd\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u5c06\u201c\u6e83\u4e0d\u6210\u519b\u201d(in shambles)\uff0c\u4e24\u6816\u90e8\u961f\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4e3b\u529b\u88ab\u51fb\u6e83\uff0c\u6570\u4e07\u540d\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u58eb\u5175\u5c06\u6ca6\u4e3a\u6218\u4fd8\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u4e5f\u4f1a\u635f\u5931155\u8258\u6218\u6597\u673a\u53ca138\u8258\u4e3b\u529b\u8239\u8230\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6ca1\u6cd5\u5360\u9886\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u57fa\u7840\u4e5f\u5c06\u88ab\u52a8\u6447\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u591a\u6570\u5175\u63a8\u60c5\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u4f1a\u635f\u59312\u8258\u822a\u6bcd\u53ca10\u81f320\u8258\u5927\u578b\u6c34\u9762\u6218\u8230\uff0c\u5728\u6218\u573a\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u661f\u671f\u5185\u5c31\u4f1a\u6709\u7ea63200\u540d\u7f8e\u519b\u6218\u6b7b\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb20\u5e74\u6765\u7f8e\u519b\u5728\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u3001\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u6218\u5f79\u4e2d\u6298\u635f\u7684\u534a\u6570\u5175\u529b\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u635f\u5931\u4f1a\u635f\u5bb3\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5730\u4f4d\u957f\u8fbe\u6570\u5e74\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5173\u4e8e\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u7684\u4fb5\u7565\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4e5f\u76f8\u5f53\u60e8\u6de1\u3002\u53f0\u6e7e\u7684\u519b\u961f\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u51fb\u6e83\uff0c\u4e5f\u5df2\u4e25\u91cd\u53d7\u635f\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u7f3a\u7535\u3001\u7f3a\u4e4f\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u72b6\u51b5\u4e0b\u634d\u536b\u53f0\u6e7e\u53d7\u635f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u9884\u6d4b\u53f0\u6e7e\u9646\u519b\u5c06\u67093500\u540d\u58eb\u5175\u4f24\u4ea1\uff0c\u6d77\u519b\u6240\u670926\u8258\u9a71\u9010\u8230\u53ca\u62a4\u536b\u8230\u5c06\u88ab\u51fb\u6c89\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u519b\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u57fa\u5730\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u906d\u53d7\u89e3\u653e\u519b\u653b\u51fb\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u53ef\u80fd\u635f\u5931\u8d85\u8fc7100\u67b6\u6218\u6597\u673a\u53ca26\u8258\u6218\u8230\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6a21\u5f0f\u201d\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u53f0\u6e7e<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u53f0\u6e7e\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u6ca1\u6709\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201d\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6a21\u5f0f\u201d&#8211;\u5373\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5165\u4fb5\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u897f\u65b9\u624d\u7f13\u6162\u5411\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u63d0\u4f9b\u519b\u63f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\u9a6c\u4fee\u00b7\u574e\u897f\u6069\uff08Matthew 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