NOV. 9, 2015
Supporters of the National League for Democracy party celebrated election results displayed on a giant TV screen in Yangon, Myanmar, on Monday. Credit Adam Dean for The New York Times
YANGON, Myanmar — After struggling against the heavy hand of the Burmese military for two and a half decades, the opposition party of the Nobel Peace laureate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said Monday that it was confident of a sweeping victory in the country’s landmark nationwide elections.
Although official results of Sunday’s election trickled in for only a handful of districts, the potential electoral success by Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s political movement underlined the appeal of a woman who sacrificed her family, her health and 15 years of her life as a political prisoner to oppose dictatorship in Myanmar.
But it also portends a troubled and uncertain transition for Myanmar, and a dilemma for the military-backed government that until now has tried to manage the path away from isolation and dictatorship on its own terms. “Nationwide, we got over 70 percent,” said U Win Htein, a senior member of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s party. He cautioned that the results were not yet official, but added, “We can call this a landslide victory.”
If the results of the election are respected by the current government and the military, it will be the first time in more than five decades that voters in Myanmar have been able to choose their leaders freely.
Landslide was the term used to describe the outcome the last time Myanmar had a free election, a quarter of a century ago, when Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi led democratic forces to a victory over the military’s proxies, winning 80 percent of the seats in Parliament.
The military’s answer then was to lock up its opponents, including Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, who was put under house arrest even before the vote; nullify the results; and impose a sort of isolated dark age for the country just as its neighbors were riding the Asian economic boom to greater prosperity.
This time seems different, although how different remains to be seen. Unlike in 1990, Myanmar, the former British colony once known as Burma, is increasingly engaged with the world, including with the United States, which has invested considerable political capital and closely watched the unfolding transition toward democracy.
The American Embassy had teams of observers in every state and region of the country on Sunday. In a carefully worded congratulatory statement, Secretary of State John Kerry warned that “a peaceful postelection period is crucial for stability” and for the political transition.
While such warnings may not have been far from the surface, the mood across Yangon and other parts of the country was electric. Even a torrential downpour on Monday afternoon could not bring down the spirits of a crowd of opposition supporters who cheered and sang as they watched the results on a giant TV screen outside the party’s headquarters here.
“I haven’t been able to eat anything since yesterday because I’m so happy,” said one supporter, Daw Than Than Htay. “This is going to change everything in our country.”
Official results were fragmentary but what news there was was not good for the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party.
By the end of the day Monday, the election commission had announced the votes for only 54 of the 644 seats in Parliament. Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy, won 49 of them.
And a number of powerful members of the military establishment conceded defeat, including former senior military officers who were among the most prominent figures in the quasi-civilian government that has been in power since 2011.
Thura Shwe Mann, the speaker of the lower house of Parliament and a former general, lost his seat as did a host of high-profile ministers, almost all of them former generals.
“Nationwide, we won in some parts, and we lost in some parts,” U Htay Oo, the chairman of the governing party, was quoted as saying in the Burmese news media on Monday. “But we had a greater share of losses.”
He, too, lost his seat.
“You should never underestimate the people’s desire,” said U Khin Maung Yi, the man who defeated Mr. Htay Oo. “It is clear that people voted for us because they believe we can bring hope and change for them.”
While that may be, many voters said they cast their lot with the opposition because of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi. The daughter of the country’s independence hero, Aung San, she is often referred to affectionately in rural precincts as Mother Suu or simply the Lady.
“Of course, we love Mother Suu,” said Daw Kyi Kyi Htay, a 39-year-old rice farmer from an impoverished farming village in the Irrawaddy Delta. “I can’t give you a reason. I just love her.”
Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s persistent appeal seems to have somehow outlasted the efforts to keep her down and out of power.
The deck was stacked against her. The military-drawn Constitution included enough guarantees of military power and specific bars against her that a clear victory seemed all but out of the question.
The Constitution prohibits her from becoming president and retains crucial ministries for the military. Moreover, the military reserves the right to appoint a quarter of the seats in Parliament, meaning that for the opposition to control a simple majority it will have to win more than two-thirds of the open seats, a proposition few considered likely.
If her party’s claimed percentages hold up, she may have beaten the generals at their own game.
Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi was cautious in her comments to reporters on Monday, but she hinted at big gains, saying voters had “already understood” the result.
“The loser must face the loss bravely and calmly, and the winner must be humble and very magnanimous,” she said.
Such caution has characterized her policies as an opposition member of Parliament for the last five years, tarnishing her image as a democratic idealist.
In the West, human rights campaigners denounced her lack of action and support for Myanmar’s disenfranchised and persecuted Muslim minority, the Rohingya. Hundreds of thousands of Rohingya voters were struck from voter rolls this year and not allowed to vote on Sunday.
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