The National People’s Congress and The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference just finished in China were conferences to make attendees drowsy. “Conference” in Chinese means “meet and discussion”. However, generally speaking, during these two conferences there would be only “meet”, but without “discussion”. We see that proposals by several delegates were deleted without explanation. They were so angry but were only able to complain to the reporters outside. Likely they would not dare to complain in the conference, as it would not be the place they could talk and move at their wish.
How could people get interested at these drowsy conferences? Thus a lot of things that were to avoid the attention of the people happened. This is called “operating the black box during a public conference,” just as described in the movies we watched in China that portrayed the invasion of the Japanese soldiers as: “moving into the village quietly, without a single gunshot.”
So what happened during these two conferences behind doors? I only discovered some happenings after reading the reports about the two conferences. First I read the comments by Premier Li Keqiang: China attending the conference in Chili was not to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership that is commonly known as TPP. Premier Li’s argument was that we do not do things beyond our abilities.
This was the first time I sat up and took notice. Of course there are some people within the Communist regime that have clear minds. But for a Chinese premier to occasionally understand once is quite rare since Zhu Rongji. Especially because Li Keqiang, who has always been considered as a suppressed little daughter-in-law, now actually dared to rebut the overbearing mother-in-law (Xi Jinping) really made me surprised.
Why do I say that? It is because the ambition of Xi Jinping to dominate the world and to define rules has been exposed for a long time. Even during these two conferences, Xi Jinping reaffirmed his ambition to take over the TPP. When two gods speak in different caliber, little followers are forced to choose sides and take risks with their bosses. Thus, we see the different caliber between the spokesperson for the State Council and the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. One said that we will not do things beyond our capacity, while the other expressed that we are willing to give active consideration and making consultations with everyone regarding China taking over TPP affairs.
Now we have a good show. As the Chinese proverb says: there are no two suns in the sky at the same time, and there are no two leaders for the country. How could an autocratic dictatorship system get two masters? So what Wang Qishan said makes sense: we will resolutely maintain the status of the core leadership of Xi Jinping, without wavering. The firmness of his attitude, is as to smash someone’s dog head if that someone does not follow. Regarding this resolute maintenance of the one-party dictatorship system to avoid its collapse, Wang Qishan has a rather clear mind.
But which of these two people are right? If one was wrong, would it be insignificant or an earthquake? They did scare Taiwan with an earth-shaking sentence, yet that bluster has not yet been honored. Would the error of wanting to make a great achievement also be earthshaking? Let me give you a rough analysis.
First look at why the United States wanted to withdraw from the TPP. It was because the TPP only changes the name without changing the essence, which continue the trade rules of some unsuccessful free trade agreement of the past. These agreements were developed after World War II, guided by the Americans’ self-esteem in the need of helping the allies to restore their economy. The purpose was to let the Allied countries gain some advantage to speed up their economic recovery, to catch up to the hostile Soviet camp in the peaceful competition.
But the rules were easy to define but difficult to change. Europe has already caught up with the US level, even if they still get some smaller advantages which are very limited. The emerging countries did not get that much advantage either. Besides Japan which would always take advantages, the others did not make Americans feel so disadvantaged to the degree to change the rules. Although there were people who talked about unfairness, the public could barely understand these long essays which are difficult to understand. Most people could not understand the loss of the interests of a few people as being important. Most people felt life had been good to them.
But twenty years ago a giant tyrant shown up. Its size was several times the entire Soviet camp. Its Oriental characteristics of always taking advantages was more than Japans. It also got the trade conditions which allowed it to take advantage. Thus it dumps shoddy cheap goods on the US market, like draining the water in the pond for fishing. The USA now felt this excessive blood transfusion, and cannot afford it anymore.
In the past two decades, the people of the United States have been feeling more and more pain from the recession. This is the root reason that Donald Trump won this election. Americans’ voices against the unfair free trade are getting louder and louder. Quitting the TPP is just the beginning of righting a wrong that exceeds the proper limit. It will be followed by making troubles for Xi Jinping. However, Xi does not think so. He believes it is his chance to take over when President Trump retreated from the TPP. Now, so-called Daddy Xi in China could be a Daddy in foreign countries as well.
But the reality may make him disappointed. The United States could take charge and provide blood transfusion to its little brothers, because it has a super strong economy and half of the world market. This situation is like how China was during its Song Dynasty when it could arrogantly use money to buy more than one hundred years of peace, and to help the little brothers without any hesitation. Even so, too much blood transfusion cannot be maintained forever.
Let us view it from another point of view: why do those countries so eagerly want to join TPP? That is because they get advantages. Otherwise, why should they? President Obama had talked for so many years without result, because even the USA does not have too much advantage for others to take. The agreement will not be agreed on when there is not enough advantage. When a small country plays the rogue, it could be fierce. The Chinese people have seen it as well.
Now President Trump said that he would not play with these hooligans. He wants renew the play only according to rules. Xi Jinping foolishly thinks that the opportunity has arrived for him to dig at the corner of the US imperialism. Evidence is that Japan is still helplessly holding this TPP high. Why doesn’t China seize this opportunity?
If China seizes this opportunity, Japan will rush back. That is because it cannot deal with those poor countries which anxiously want to take advantage, or those poor countries which will win in majority to force you provide blood transfusion. Japan is smart as a monkey and will immediately run away when it realize a bad situation. This will leave Xi Jinping alone. How would he deal with his poor brothers of the third world?
If Xi Jinping threw them away, then all his previous homework becomes a total waste, in addition to spending a lot of money to buy curses. Then these countries will continue hold onto the big legs of the USA. Indeed he does not have as big legs as the USA, and does not have as big a market as the USA. Eventually Xi Jinping will finish with his head bumped and bleeding, if the Chinese economy has not collapsed.
It seems that the core leadership of Xi Jinping indeed is wrong this time. So let Premier Li take his pride this time. After all, he was suppressed for a time long enough.
