（参与2016年4月3日讯）
中国：一个全新的民主革命
罗兰•沃森（ “独裁者观察“网站创办者）
介绍
在幕后，中国共产党即使不是真正地恐慌，也在担心。它已经弄乱了经济和金融两个市场。而且，它正在和要求人权和民主的中国人民进行着一场永不结束且持续升级的战争。中共领导人们面对的压力永远不会消失。即使他们在当下拥有极端的权利和财富，他们也永远不能放松。
就经济而言，中国是世界工厂，但现在外国消费者并不需要这幺多的货物。更糟糕的是，中共领导人们阻止了中产阶级的形成（这通常会产生长效应的经济增长），同时也就是一个新的需求来源的产生。他们担心：中产阶级会坚持要求民主变革。这是他们肯定不能允许的。相反，他们照着独裁者的剧本，让大部分人贫困。人们虽然能够在工厂工作，但却只能拿着奴隶的薪水。
经济活动的主要收益者是官僚们。然后他们在被保证着党会永远保持股价上涨的前提下，被鼓励涌向股市。但在这里，高层领导人犯了一个错误。他们操纵了市场（和更广泛的经济—这是腐败的发展中国家的一个常见模式），因为他们是最大的投资者，所以他们也是天文数字的受益者。但在这个过程中，他们忽视了一个潜在的不可改变的规则，更大的利益往往具有更大的风险；涨上去的东西，也肯定会跌下来。中国股价（随着房价一起）向上飞腾，然后迅速下跌。底层官僚丢失了很大一部分从血汗工厂里榨来的财富，并且大都背负着贷款。所以，中共已经没有能力重新吹起一轮气泡或恢复合理的经济增长。（公布的经济数据即使不完全是梦幻的，也是有问题的。）同时，更糟糕的是货币方面，人民币受到的压力。货币反应出一个国家的经济。如果后者被削弱，前者也就被削弱，国际投机分子们—对冲基金—会尽最大努力来加大这一过程。那个取代了传奇的“铁饭碗”及人民平和的经济机器，对于共产党来说已经失败。
中共解雇了它证监会的头头，一个牺牲品—他只不过是一个执行命令的人。中共在尝试着向世界和中国民众保证，他们能够阻止经济、股市和货币的危机。我们将拭目以待。
所有这一切经济和金融动荡给民众提供了一个摆脱压迫和奋起反抗的理想机会。尽管如此，共产党依然强势而残酷，所以每个人都意识到民主变革将是难以实现的。但是，这正在到来。独裁者不可能永远保持控制。而且，以一个大胆的方式，清算他们的日子可能不是几十年，而是几年。
香港
中国大陆居民拥有的优势是他们有一个兄弟公民，香港的居民们。因为一国两制，他们并没有那幺受压迫。而大陆则可以学习香港，反过来让大陆公民承担责任。他们不仅必须要维护自己的民主，也给所有中国人提供了一个榜样。
在2014年，香港发生了民主革命，“雨伞运动”，尝试迫使地方政府收回让北京在2017年选举中说了算的决定。这是一个大型起义，但最终失败了。香港政府最后并未退缩。正如我当时在一篇文章中提到的，示威者需要三件东西：激烈的领导层，越来越多的参与者，和国际支持。对于第一个，该运动采取了联盟的形式，包括占中、学联，和其它群体。他们的一些领导人是激进的，但面对政府镇压的压力，另一些人动摇了。第二，抗议增长到不过几十万。这个数字虽大，但被证明是不够的。最后，没有真正的国际支持。
这三个因素中，我认为第二个是最重要的。如果该运动的人数发展到一百万以上，那它就会成功。那幺，问题就是它为什幺最后没有成功？当然，政府镇压阻止了更多人的加入，这是政府的目的，反抗议活动也被组织了起来。但是，尽管这些都是实质性的障碍，真正的问题应该在于运动的组织。每个人都在外面抗议，而运动的领袖们在舞台上暴露，有被逮捕的危险。虽然这是很难甚至无法预测到的，但该运动应创建一个单独的、幕后的领导团队致力于提高日复一日的参与人数。这应该包括媒体关系—通过传统和公共媒体公开呼吁更多的示威者，同时也好应对政府的谎言。
由于目标没有实现，很显然，香港需要一个新的起义。人民必须迫使政府屈服。而且必须取得胜利。最重要的是向中国大陆的所有民众证明，共产党是可以被击败的。在这个新的起义里，香港的领导团队应集中精力进一步扩大抗议的人数，直到起义可以像海啸一样击垮政府。必须有一个计划，让尽可能多的人能够在起义发生时走上街头，然后用一个分开的团队来保持抗议场面的增长，而不是在街道上和等着被逮捕。
中国大陆
在理想的情况下，香港的一个新抗议活动会蔓延到内地。但是，中共的特工们非常厉害—像食肉动物一样，所以一些额外的步骤将是必需的。要想鼓励很多人在大陆城市示威，民众必须被激怒到一个让他们失去恐惧的程度。同时，让一个人失去恐惧的最好办法是让他相信某些事情是有可能的。
大陆民众的确会抗议，当然经常是因为恶劣的工作环境、污染、政府腐败和其它不满。有些地方的情况糟糕到民众会奋起反抗。此外，因为害怕激发更大规模的抗议活动，当局经常让步。所以，这里是有一个模式存在的。所需要的是激怒的民众要求人权和民主的地下运动。然后，在民众愤怒和国家不安定的情况下，一个为真正运动产生的舞台就被搭起来了，比如回应一个新的香港事件。
共产党是糟糕的：一个怪物。但由于审查制度，大多数中国人都不是很了解这一点。相反，它们被灌输谎言，说党是救世主。民众需要一个地下革命来应对这种审查和洗脑。一旦他们知道了真相，知道怎幺被骗，他们会有足够的愤怒起来反抗 。
幸运的是，这种类型的运动是非常容易做到的。如果做得小心，它的风险可以是最小，比抗议本身还要小。我这里指的是一个鼓动的宣传，或称为激励的活动。
以个体或小团体为单位的参与者们，可对内地城市的墙壁进行革命标语的涂鸦和宣传。这种类型的活动可以非常容易地传播到全国各地，利用社交媒体来击垮中共的审查制度。
一个宣传活动往往有很多不同的组成部分，包括革命的符号、标语和传单。比如，就拿香港来说，它也需要一个煽动性运动，运动的符号可能是一个雨伞的照片。在黑暗的掩护下，活动者们可以用喷漆和模版让他们无处不在。当然，它不必是一把伞。这种符号可以是各种东西。比如，对于大陆来说，可以是89.64，天安门广场的民主运动，或者仅仅是“民主”两字。伴随着革命口号，可以有各种各样的符号。
传单可以很好地提供更细节的故事，提供革命口号的具体要求和内容。对于共产党罪行的简单描述应该被贴在墙上，或者各种可以让人们拿到的地方。事实上，法轮功的“九评共产党”就是共产党历史罪行的极好来源，也可以是近期事件的补充信息。
事实上，地下运动的工作重点不应在于打倒独裁者。应该记住的是，民主转型应分成两个阶段：推翻政权，和建立一个符合国家历史和条件的运转良好的民主制度。中国民众在与中共对抗的同时，需就第二个阶段进行全面而广泛的讨论。在这过程中，运动会发展出一个积极的关注点，就是民主的中国会是什幺样的, 同时也给予人们希望—这样的未来是可以实现的。（注：这给我理由在此介绍我的简易指南—民主课程的中文译本。如果中国民众可以理解民主系统是应该如何运作的，他们可以更好地讨论如何推行民主制度。
http://www.dictatorwatch.org/books/LessonsinDemocracyChineseSimplified.pdf
最后，一个分散的、没有等级的模式对于革命性的煽动活动来说是最有效的。这对于示威游行来说也是对的。这减少了运动领袖之间分歧的可能性，同时也可以在运动领袖被捕的情况下让运动持续进行下去。尽管如此，还是要尽最大可能地避免被逮捕。对于示威游行来说，一个庞大的群体走上街头对内对外来说都是一种防御。如果政府特工开始逮捕，民众也可以把被捕的人给营救出来，比如冲击示威者被关押的警察局。对于夜间活动的宣传战工作者来说，小心谨慎是非常必要的。活动必须经过演习，在任何涂鸦和传单被散发前就要做好穿着不同衣服的准备。要绝对保密。不要告诉任何人你做了什幺。
结论
在一个群体运动中有很多团体。在前台的领袖们和在背后做直接活动的活动者承受着最大的风险。下面就是其它游行和地下活动的组织者们。然后是抗议者们。然后是其它大众。运动的对立面是最高的独裁者们；他们的正式压制工具包括军队和警察；还有便衣特工们。活动中间阶段的目标是让更多的民众加入示威游行；让更多的人来一起承担风险（风险／回报法则在这里同样适用）；同时让独裁阶级成员和特工们秘密加入运动。如果这些目标都达成了，那幺中共是可以被推翻的。
民主是中国人民应得的，但是这必须靠一个大众革命来完成。香港的民众也需要在一国两制的原则里捍卫他们的权利。这两个使命是联系着的。香港本土居民必须通过示威来保护自己的权利，并通过这个过程来帮助大陆民众来要求改变，来创造革命宣传，进而达到广泛反抗的条件。只有这样，民众的心愿才能得到满足，国家才能达到一个稳定和宁静的平衡。
DICTATOR WATCH
(www.dictatorwatch.org)
Contact: Roland Watson, roland@dictatorwatch.org
CHINA: A NEW DEMOCRACY REVOLUTION
March 27, 2016
Many people may not be aware of it, but – democracy-wise – things are
heating up in China. At its recent plenary meeting, the National People’s
Congress (the “parliament” of the Communist Party), emphasized “national
security” against “domestic subversion.” The regime has furthered vowed to
act against “infiltration, subversion and sabotage by hostile forces.”
President Xi Jinping was threatened in an open letter about the direction
of the country’s reform, and which included a demand for his resignation.
Students in Hong Kong have launched a pro-independence party.
Into this mix, we offer the following article, and which has been
published simultaneously in both the traditional and simplified Chinese
character sets. We will be working to distribute the article into mainland
China and Hong Kong.
Please post and share, including on twitter, wechat and weibo.
http://www.dictatorwatch.org/ChinaRevolution.html
http://www.dictatorwatch.org/ChinaRevolutionTraditional.pdf
http://www.dictatorwatch.org/ChinaRevolutionSimplified.pdf
CHINA: A NEW DEMOCRACY REVOLUTION
By Roland Watson
Dictator Watch
March 2016
Introduction
Behind the scenes, the Communist Party of China is worried, if not in an
actual panic. It has mismanaged both the economy and financial markets.
And, it is involved in a never-ending, and escalating, war with the people
of the country, who want human rights and democracy. The pressure the
communist leaders face will never go away. While for the moment they may
have extreme power and wealth, they can never relax.
For the economy, China became the world’s factory, but now foreign
consumers do not want so many goods. Even worse, the leaders blocked the
formation of a middle class (which would normally follow a long period of
economic expansion), and which would have created a new source of demand.
Their fear: A middle class would insist on democratic change. They can’t
have that. Instead, they followed the dictator’s playbook, and kept the
bulk of the population impoverished. The people were able to work in the
factories, certainly, but at the wages of a serf.
The principal beneficiaries of the economic activity were the
apparatchiks. They were then encouraged to flock to the stock market, with
the promise that the Party would keep the prices rising forever. Here,
though, the top leaders made a mistake. They manipulated the market (and
the broader economy – this is a common pattern in corrupt developing
nations) so that, as the largest investors of all, they would pocket
astronomical sums. But, in the process they ignored its underlying, and
immutable, rules – that greater reward requires greater risk, and that
what goes up will come down. Chinese stock prices bubbled up (along with
housing prices), and then rapidly deflated. The lower-level apparatchiks
lost a large part of the wealth they had accumulated from running the
sweatshops, and were saddled with large loans. Now, there is no way to
re-inflate the bubbles, or resume legitimate economic growth (the
published economic data is dubious if not a complete fantasy); and, to top
it off, the currency, the Yuan, is under pressure. A currency reflects a
nation’s economy. If the latter weakens, the former does as well, and
which international speculators – hedge funds – do their best to
accelerate. The one thing the communists had going for them, an economic
machine, and which replaced the storied “iron rice bowl” and kept the
masses pacified, is failing.
The Party fired its head securities regulator, a sacrificial victim – he
just did what he was told to do, and is now trying to assure the world –
and the Chinese people, that it can prevent a crisis in the economy, and
stock market, and currency. We shall see.
All of this economic and financial turmoil provides an ideal opportunity
for the people to throw off their oppression and to rise up. Nonetheless,
the communists remains strong, and brutal, so – as everyone realizes –
democratic change will be difficult to achieve. But, it is coming. The
dictators cannot maintain control forever. And, with a bold approach,
their day of reckoning can be brought forward, by years if not decades.
Hong Kong
One advantage the mainland people of China have is their co-citizenry, the
residents of Hong Kong. Because of the one country-two systems structure,
they are not so repressed – or pacified. The mainland can follow Hong
Kong’s lead, which in turn puts the onus on its residents. They must fight
not only to maintain their own democracy, but to provide an example for
all the people of China.
There was a pro-democracy revolution in Hong Kong in 2014, the Umbrella
movement, to force the local government to back down from giving Beijing a
say over who may run for office in the upcoming 2017 election. This was a
large uprising, but ultimately it failed. The Hong Kong Administration did
not back down. As I wrote in an article at the time, the protestors needed
three things: fierce leaders; growing numbers; and international support.
For the first, the movement took the form of a coalition, including Occupy
Central, Scholarism, and other groups. Some of their leaders were fierce,
but in the face of a government crackdown others wavered. For the second,
the protests grew to the low hundreds of thousands. This number, while
massive, proved to be insufficient. Finally, there was no real
international support.
Of the three factors, I believe the second was the most important. Had the
movement grown to a million or more, it would have succeeded. The
question, then, is why it didn’t. The government crackdown of course
dissuaded more people from joining, as was its goal, and counter-protests
were organized as well. But, while these were substantial barriers, the
real issue was the movement’s organization. Everyone was out protesting
and the leaders were on stage and subject to arrest. While it was
difficult if not impossible to anticipate what would happen, the movement
should have created a separate, behind-the scenes, organizing team
dedicated to increasing the turnout, day-by-day. This should have included
media relations – public calls on both traditional and social media for
more protestors, and also efforts to counter government lies.
Since the objective was not achieved, it’s clear that Hong Kong needs
another uprising. The people must force the government to yield. There
must be a victory, most importantly, to show all the people of China that
the Communist Party can be beaten. In this new uprising, Hong Kong
organizers should further concentrate on increasing the size of the
protest until it washes over the government like a tsunami, including by
having a plan to get as many people as possible out when the protest is
triggered, and then with a separate team, not on the streets and subject
to arrest, to keep the demonstration growing.
Mainland China
Ideally, a new protest in Hong Kong would spread to the mainland. But,
since Party agents there are so repressive – they are like predators, a
number of additional steps will be required. To encourage large numbers of
people to demonstrate in the mainland’s cities, the public needs to be
agitated such that they are so angry they lose their fear. And, the best
way to lose one’s fear is to believe that something is possible.
People on the mainland do protest, of course, and quite often: against
poor working conditions, pollution, government corruption, and other
grievances. Local conditions are often so bad that the people will fight
back. Furthermore, for fear of igniting larger protests, the authorities
regularly back down. The model, therefore, is in place. What is required
is an underground movement to create widespread agitation for human rights
and democracy. Then, with the people angry and the country unsettled, the
stage is set for a real uprising, for example, in response to new events
in Hong Kong.
The Communist Party is terrible: A monster. But, because of censorship
most Chinese are poorly informed about this. Instead, they are fed lies
that the Party is the savior. The people need an underground revolutionary
movement to counter this. Once they know the truth, how they have been
deceived, they will be angry enough to rise up.
Fortunately, this type of movement is straightforward to create. If done
with care, it can further involve minimal risk: indeed, less that
protesting. What I am referring to is an agitation-propaganda, or
agit-prop, campaign.
Agitators, singly and in small groups, can pepper the walls of the
mainland’s cities with revolutionary graffiti and fliers. A call for this
type of action could further easily be spread around the country, in
defiance of the Party’s censorship, using social media.
A propaganda movement often has a number of distinct elements, including
revolutionary images, slogans, and fliers. For instance, for Hong Kong –
the territory needs an agitation movement as well, the image could be a
picture of an umbrella. Activists, using a stencil and spray paint, could
put it everywhere, under the cover of darkness. Of course, it doesn’t have
to be an umbrella. The image could be anything. For example, for the
mainland it could be the characters for June 4, 1989, referencing the
Tiananmen Square democracy movement, or simply the word “democracy,” etc.
There could be a number of different images, and accompanying
revolutionary slogans.
Fliers in turn fill in the story, providing substance to the demands of
the slogans. Short descriptions of Party crimes and corruption should be
taped to walls, or just left where people can find them. Indeed, Falun
Gong’s Nine Commentaries is an excellent source of information about the
Party’s historic atrocities and crimes, and which could be supplemented
with information on more recent events.
Actually, the underground movement should not only focus on the job of
removing the dictators. It is important to remember that a democratic
transition has two stages: Overthrowing the regime; and installing a
well-functioning democracy, tailored to the nation’s history and
conditions. The Chinese people need to have a wide-ranging discussion
about the second stage, at the same time that they confront the Party.
Through doing this, the movement will also develop a positive focus, on
what a democratic China will look like, as well as give the people hope
that such a future is achievable. (Note: this is a good reason to
infiltrate the Chinese translation of my short guide, Lessons In
Democracy. The Chinese people can have a better discussion about
implementing the democratic system if they understand how it is meant to
work.
http://www.dictatorwatch.org/books/LessonsinDemocracyChineseTraditional.pdf
http://www.dictatorwatch.org/books/LessonsinDemocracyChineseSimplified.pdf)
Finally, the most effective structure for a revolutionary agit-prop
campaign is one that is decentralized and non-hierarchical. This holds for
protests as well. This reduces the common problem of disputes arising
among the leaders, and it further keeps the movement alive in the event
that activists are arrested. Even so, it is imperative that everything
possible be done to avoid arrest. For protests, having huge numbers of
people in the streets is a defense in and of itself. If regime agents do
make arrests, the demonstrators can often be “un-arrested” as well, such
as by swarming the police stations where they are held. For nighttime
propagandists, though, precautions are essential. Actions should be
rehearsed, in different clothes, before any graffiti is written or fliers
placed. And, absolute secrecy should be maintained. Don’t tell anyone what
you have done.
Conclusion
In a popular movement there are many groups. The onstage leaders, and
underground activists who do direct action, bear the greatest risk. Next
are other organizers, both for protests and underground action. Then come
the protestors, and finally the rest of the population. Opposed to the
movement are the top dictators; their formal repression apparatus
including the army and the police; and plain clothes agents and spies. The
intermediate objectives of the movement are to get more members of the
public to join the protest; to get more people to bear more risk
(risk/reward holds here as well); and to get dictatorship members and
agents to join the movement in secret. If these objectives are achieved,
the regime can be overthrown.
The people of China deserve democracy, but it will take a popular
revolution to achieve it. The people of Hong Kong also need to defend
their rights under the one country, two systems principle. These two
missions are linked. The indigenous of Hong Kong must demonstrate to
preserve their rights, and through doing so help lead the people of the
mainland to demand change, who in turn must engender a collection of
underground activists, to create revolutionary propaganda and through it
the conditions for widespread rebellion. Only through this can the
people’s aspirations be fulfilled, and the country reach a stable and
tranquil equilibrium.
